Every year on 01 June, the start of the hurricane season I post info that will help others understand what and why we along Hurricane Alley look at religiously…..and the scary or worrisome thing is there have already been 2 named storms before the season begins.
Let me say here that hurricane preparedness has taught us living in Hurricane Alley how to deal with the pandemic…..we know prep.
Onto the new season…..
Looks like hurricanes have been changed……and not for the better…..
Are hurricanes getting worse? That’s what climate models have long predicted, and now there’s evidence: A new study finds that hurricanes have indeed grown more powerful in recent decades, LiveScience reports. “The trend is there and it is real,” lead study author James Kossin tells the New York Times. “There’s this remarkable building of this body of evidence that we’re making these storms more deleterious.” Worldwide satellite images between 1979 and 2017 show a roughly 15% increase in hurricanes hitting 100 knots, especially in the last 19 years of the time frame, per the study. The chance of a hurricane being Category 3 or worse has also risen about 8% every 10 years.
This echoes the notion that warmer water, which fuels hurricanes, is making them bigger and stronger. But greenhouse gases may not be the only cause. Scientists also point to changing sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic, perhaps due to natural variability or lower sulfur emissions in fossil-fuel burning. That said, Kossin mostly agrees with the climate-change angle: “Global warming has made hurricanes stronger, but our results don’t tell us precisely how much of the trends are caused by human activities and how much may be just natural variability,” he says in a press release.
Without further distractions…..
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be more active than usual, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
The outlook created by Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, calls for 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes – one that is Category 3 or higher (115-plus-mph winds) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
This forecast is significantly above the 30-year (1981-2010) normalized average of 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
A little historical perspective……https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-04-15-atlantic-hurricane-season-april-outlook-the-weather-company-ibm
In this year of the pandemic there is more to worry about than a few storms along the Gulf Coast…..with the pandemic and then a major storm on top of the virus we could be looking at stuff for the movies……
Pete Gaynor, who runs the Federal Emergency Management Agency, is drafting a document whose title sounds like the stuff of horror movies: “COVID-19 Pandemic Operational Guidance for the 2020 Hurricane Season.”
Driving the news: “We’re doing a lot of things that are not necessarily in any playbook that has existed,” Gaynor told me in an interview on Saturday. “In some cases, we write the playbook as we go.”
The local news reporting on the possible change in hurricane protocols during the pandemic….
The Red Cross and Mississippi Emergency Managament Agency are working together to tackle a huge problem: How do they staff and operate shelters in a post-COVID-19 world? With an active hurricane season being projected, the agencies are working fast to find solutions.
County emergency management agencies and MEMA determine when shelters in Mississippi open. However, it is the Red Cross that staffs the shelters and provides supplies, but COVID-19 could threaten the status quo.
“That’s the kink in it, is that, if a hurricane hit right now, we would not staff any shelters due to the COVID crisis,” said Executive Director John McFarland of the Red Cross’ Southeast Mississippi chapter. “If we were to open the shelter and put people in there and provide sufficient spacing, which would obviously mean putting fewer people in, one person shows symptoms and you have to quarantine the whole shelter and you just make matters worse.”
As with the tradition of IST I would like to ring in the 2020 Hurricane Season with Jimmy Buffet…..
One final note….if I am out of touch for awhile then a storm took out our internet and please bear with me….I shall return as soon as I can.
What did the hurricane say to the coconut palm?
Hang on to your nuts for this is no ordinary blow job.
Please add this pdf to your preparedness…..
Be well….Be safe…..
“lego ergo scribo”