Tag: Armed Conflict

Counteroffensive–Not So Fast

For months we have been told of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive in Eastern part of the country….there been a few delays like weather, waiting for more and better weapons, etc.

It is being reported that the Biden posse expects nothing out if the proposed counteroffensive….instead a long drawn out frozen conflict.

The Biden administration is preparing for the war in Ukraine to turn into a frozen conflict for years or possibly even decades, similar to the situation on the Korean peninsula, POLITICO reported on Thursday.

US officials have been discussing the possibility, including potential options for where to draw the lines for a frozen conflict that either side would agree not to cross. The report said the idea of freezing the fighting could be a “politically palatable long-term result.”

The administration is considering the possibility because they don’t expect Ukraine to regain much territory in its long-awaited counteroffensive. According to POLITICO, the US is expecting that the assault “won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.”

A US official said the administration is preparing to support Ukraine for the long term, whether the conflict is frozen or not. “We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” the official told POLITICO.

Since one of Russia’s main motives for invading Ukraine was its alignment with NATO, and its main demand during short-lived negotiations in the early days of the war was Ukrainian neutrality, a frozen conflict that involves NATO continuing to arm Kyiv would likely not be acceptable to Moscow. While Russian officials have expressed an openness to negotiations, the Kremlin has said it believes Russia’s goals can only be achieved through military means.

If the conflict is frozen along the current battle lines, Ukraine would lose significantly more territory than if it negotiated a deal with Moscow shortly after the invasion. But the peace talks were discouraged by the US and its allies, and the Biden administration still shows no interest in pushing for a lasting diplomatic solution.

(antiwar.com)

Does that sound at all familiar to anyone but me?

But wait…..are those F-16s going to be a game change?

Mostly likely not.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Monday that the provision of F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv will give Ukraine’s military an “incremental” boost but said it wouldn’t be a “game-changer” in the conflict.

“The F-16 is a reasonable option for them for a whole bunch of reasons,” Kendall said. “It will give Ukrainians an increment of capabilities that they don’t have right now. But it’s not going to be a dramatic game-changer, as far as I’m concerned, for their total military capabilities.”

The US announced on Friday that it would sign off on European deliveries of F-16s for Ukraine, but there’s still a long way to go before the planes reach Kyiv. No countries have officially committed to sending their F-16s, and the current focus is on supporting training for Ukrainian pilots.

We do this all the time….that is why I say we are addicted to endless war.

The only winners in this conflict are the arms industries….they will continue to make their profit (a post to come) until the last Ukrainian.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

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Putin Has A Plan

Let me say at the onset this story sounds a bit hinkey to me.

It appears some think that Putin is use ‘waves of kids’ thrown at the Ukraine military…..which made me think of the news in the 1980s with the Iraq-Iran War when Iran used kids armed with the Koran to walk in front of their troops looking for mines….Iran lost a whole generation of males because of this stupidity.

Putin’s Plan?

Former senior army officials accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of deploying waves of untrained kids to the front lines in an effort to outmatch the West.

British generals have weighed in on the ongoing war in Ukraine, drawing parallels to the style of warfare seen in the battles of Verdun and the Somme during World War I. Speaking to the Sun Online, they accused the Russian leader of relying on sheer numbers to overpower the well-trained and better-armed Ukrainian forces.

The British veterans further asserted that Putin’s primary strategy was to prolong the war, leveraging manpower as their only significant resource, with the hope that Western nations would eventually lose interest, thus facilitating a forced settlement.

General Sir Richard Shirreff claimed that Russia was deploying troops in successive waves, while General Sir Richard Barrons agreed, stating that these waves were deliberately sent to be decimated by Ukrainian fire.

The generals also expressed their suspicion that Putin’s approach aimed to demonstrate a greater level of resilience compared to Ukraine and its allies.

In support of their claims, Ukraine has reported over 200,000 killed enemy soldiers to date. If these figures hold true, it would mean that the Russian Army has suffered casualties at a rate of one soldier every three minutes since Putin initiated his “Special Military Operation” in February of last year, per The Sun.

While the veteran generals appeared skeptical of the exact figure, they do acknowledge that Russia has incurred significant losses in its attempts to seize control of Ukraine.

“What the Russians have consistently demonstrated is their lack of concern for their own people and the number of casualties,” stated General Shirreff.

He further added, “Putin believes that the Ukrainian people will eventually lose their will to fight, and the West will perceive it as a stalemate, ultimately forcing a settlement.”

(knewz.com)

Maybe my UK visitors have more info on this story….if they would like to update us we will be appreciative.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What The Leak Exposed

Last month there was a story about the leaked documents of the top secret type that was headlines for a couple of days then went sorta silent…..but there is still stuff being gleamed out of the documents….

This story is about our man in Ukraine, Zelensky……

Volodymyr Zelensky apparently isn’t satisfied with merely repelling Russian troops. The Washington Post reports that in private talks with his generals, he has been pushing for aggressive attacks within Russia and even for occupying Russian villages. The story is another based on leaked US intelligence reports that first surfaced on the Discord messaging platform. For example:

  • “In a meeting in late January, Zelensky suggested Ukraine ‘conduct strikes in Russia’ while moving Ukrainian ground troops into enemy territory to ‘occupy unspecified Russian border cities,’ according to one document labeled ‘top secret.’ The goal would be ‘to give Kyiv leverage in talks with Moscow,’ the document said.”

At other times, Zelensky suggests bombing a Russian pipeline that delivers oil to Hungary as revenge for Hungary leader Viktor Orban’s support of Vladimir Putin, and he expresses a desire for long-range missiles to strike within Russia. US officials did not dispute the accuracy of the leaked documents. Zelensky himself tells the Post that suggestions he wants to occupy Russian villages are “fantasies,” but he also makes clear that Ukraine has the right to resort to unconventional methods. “Ukraine did not occupy anyone, but vice versa,” he said. “When so many people have died and there have been mass graves and our people have been tortured, I am sure that we have to use any tricks.”

Read the full story.

I understand the desire for revenge for the invasion….but I also understand why he needs to practice some restraint or he could put his ‘allies’ ass deep in a war that few of them want.

My question is if these ‘top secret’ documents were made public then why are we not getting more information about them and what is truly happening in Ukraine….I for one do not believe all the hype and war mongering.

I say give us all the information undiluted by the cyber machine and let us decide what is what…..some of us are still capable of critical and rational thinking.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Ukraine Needs More….And More

While the world awaits the counteroffensive that has been promised by Ukraine against the invading Russian army in the East of the country…..its officials are planning the ‘next’ counteroffensive action…….

These officials are starting their program to get even more of American taxpayer money….even before their first long awaited counteroffensive has not been successful or for that matter has not even begun.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said the upcoming counteroffensive would not be the last. The diplomat requested NATO members transfer more advanced weapons to Kiev for the coming operations, including F-16s. 

Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle, “Do not consider this counteroffensive as the last one, because we do not know what will come out of it.” He continued, “It means we have to prepare for the next counteroffensive.”

For months, the Pentagon has been assisting Kiev in planning its operations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has used the forthcoming counteroffensive to lobby for more weapons from his Western backers. 

Last week, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Pristayko indicated the long-anticipated operations would begin once the weather improves. Recently American and Ukrainian officials have suggested the counteroffensive to retake territory could fail. 

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that the results of the counteroffensive would have significant sway over whether Ukraine continues to receive US support. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support.” He continued, “If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though.”

Although, at a joint press conference on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly explained Western support is not based on Ukraine’s battlefield success. “We need to continue to support them, irrespective of whether this forthcoming offensive generates huge gains on the battlefield, because until this conflict is resolved and resolved properly, it is not over,” Cleverly said.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/ukraine-seeking-advanced-weapons-for-next-counteroffensive/

“Resolved properly”?

Who decides that?

Maybe a look at Ukraine from SouthFront.org 

I would like the American people stop believing the hype….and the wealth of disinformation designed to garner public support for the continuation of this conflict that only certain people profit from….hint:  it is not the Ukrainian people.

I realize that some think that the purse strings for war is unlimited but the lust for war will destroy this country in time.

Just saying!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Spring Counteroffensive

The world has been promised a Ukrainian counteroffensive that is for ‘total victory’.

Better hurry for Spring is dwindling away and Summer looms.

I understand that the weather and on-ground conditions can be a bit challenging….but we were promised.

US expectations are large but conditional…..

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Monday that future US support for Ukraine depends on Kyiv’s looming counteroffensive.

“I think there’s going to be a lot riding on the line with this counteroffensive,” McCaul told Bloomberg. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support. If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though.”

The US has put enormous weight on Kyiv’s expected counteroffensive and has helped Ukraine prepare for the assault by training soldiers and sending more arms. But leaked Pentagon documents and media reports indicate the US doesn’t expect Kyiv to regain significant territory.

McCaul said he expects Ukraine to focus its counteroffensive on the land bridge Russia has secured to Crimea. He said after Ukraine pushed back Russian forces, Kyiv could “call for a ceasefire, after which we can then maybe have negotiations, to finally resolve this.”

(antiwar.com)

AS I said waiting for better weather….Ukraine is waiting for better weather before it launches its long-awaited spring counteroffensive, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK told Sky News.

The longer they wait the lower the expectations it seems…..

Senior Ukrainian officials fear their coming counteroffensive will not live up to the expectations of Kyiv’s Western backers, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “Most people are … waiting for something huge.”

One of the Pentagon documents that appeared online as part of the Discord leaks was a US assessment from February that showed the US did not believe Ukraine could regain significant territory. POLITICO reported on April 24 that current assessments say something similar.

But Western officials are still insisting that Ukraine has what it needs to retake territory from Russia this spring. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Kyiv is capable despite what the Discord leaks revealed.

Reznikov said Kyiv’s Western backers have said they need an example of “a success because we need to show it to our people,” as a Ukrainian failure would not bode well for rallying more military assistance for Kyiv. “But I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?” said Reznikov.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs and staunch supporter of arming Ukraine, has said future aid hinges on the counteroffensive. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support. If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though,” McCaul said last week.

Reznikov and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Post that they were still preparing for the counteroffensive. Zelensky said they will be ready to launch the assault “as soon as the weapons that were agreed with our partners are filled.”

Reznikov said the “first assault formation” is more than 90% prepared but some troops are still receiving training in other countries. The looming counteroffensive is expected to be focused on the south as an attempt to sever the land bridge Russia has secured to Crimea.

(antiwar.com)

I am sure I will get all the usual excuses….

Let’s say the counteroffensive is moderately successful…..does anyone really see a change in this conflict?

I do not.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Victory At All Costs

Happy May Day!

That seems to be the attitude of those deep in the Ukraine conflict……and that includes some within our Congress and the president has basically given an open end commitment to fund the war for Ukraine.

A few in the Congress have made their commitment known through their offering of bills……

A bipartisan group of hawks in Congress announced a new resolution on Tuesday that calls for the U.S. to seek the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders and to bring Ukraine into NATO after the war is over. 

Reps. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) are co-sponsoring what they call the Ukrainian Victory Resolution, and have been framing it, perhaps not surprisingly, with the lofty rhetoric of World War II. So far the bill has 18 bipartisan co-sponsors.

“We must not repeat the error of Sept. 1, 1939,” Wilson told Yahoo News, referencing what is now held by many as the “Munich moment” and appeasement of Adolf Hitler before the Nazi invasion of Poland.

Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) have also introduced their own, similar resolution in the Senate. This comes after three Senators and 16 House Republicans last week sent a letter to President Biden saying they would not support any new Ukraine aid if it was not paired with a clear.

This week’s resolutions are sure to stir debate over the extent of U.S. Ukraine policy and support ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring. Furthermore, a signal from Congress that the U.S. is fully behind the retaking of Crimea and the Donbas would be exactly what the Ukrainian government wants to hear, but it is a dangerous message to send when Ukraine lacks the ability to achieve those goals on the ground.

In fact, setting overly ambitious, unrealistic goals as the definition of “victory” seems more likely to blow up in the faces of both Washington and Kyiv. Instead of backing war aims that promise to prolong the conflict, the U.S. should be encouraging Ukraine to settle for a return to the pre-2022 lines.

Lawmakers deploy ‘Munich’ trope to push dangerously hawkish Ukraine resolutions

This will eventually bite the US in the ass….as always.

Another point here where will the US get the funds to pay for the massive build-up for a possible mash-up with China?  Nations like South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan…..that will stretch things a bit far.

But as long as the profits keep coming….who f*cking cares?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What Game Is This?

Meanwhile back to the Ukraine/Russia mash-up….

And the confusion remains….

The US House members want a resolution for a total victory in Ukraine…..

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) is planning to introduce a resolution in the House that would declare it is US policy to seek a Ukrainian victory against Russia, which includes returning all Russian-controlled territory to Kyiv, including Crimea.

According to Yahoo News, the resolution “affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against the invasion and restored to its internationally recognized 1991 borders.”

The resolution will be co-sponsored by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) and will need to make it through the House Foreign Affairs Committee before being put to the floor for a full House vote. The committee is chaired by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), who has been calling on President Biden to arm Ukraine with longer-range weapons that can launch strikes on Crimea.

(antiwar.com)

Any accountability according to Dems would be “devisive and ill-advised”….

Legislation introduced by Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL), which calls on the White House to provide Congress with documents related to the war in Ukraine, passed a voice vote on Wednesday. The resolution is set to be voted on by the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Friday. Debate on the resolution was divided among party lines. 

The legislation, H.Res.300, calls on President Joe Biden to “transmit, respectively, to the House of Representatives copies of all documents indicating any plans for current or future military assistance to Ukraine and documents indicating whether any United States Armed Forces, including special operations forces, are currently deployed in Ukraine.” 

…

Support for the resolution was limited to Republicans. The measure passed a voice vote and is set for a full committee vote on Friday. Several Democrats attacked the legislation during Wednesday’s debate. 

Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC) blasted the resolution as “divisive and ill-advised.” She claimed, “It is a partisan political ploy, and the height of legislative irresponsibility that jeopardizes the national security of the United States, of our Europe allies and partners as well as the courageous Ukrainian people.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/democrats-attack-ukraine-audit-resolution-as-divisive-and-ill-advised/

Makes you wonder just who pays these slugs salary….and why throwing cash without accountability is fine with them.

While the House has wishful thinking….the President and his minions are not so sure….

The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive failing, POLITICO reported on Monday.

Pentagon documents allegedly leaked by Airman Jack Teixeira revealed that the US doesn’t believe Ukraine can regain any significant territory in its counteroffensive, which is expected to be launched in the spring. The information in the leaks was based on an assessment made in February.

According to POLITICO, more current assessments also don’t expect much Ukrainian success. Two Biden administration officials said they don’t think Kyiv has the ability to sever Russia’s landbridge to Crimea in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The report said US intelligence “indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in March that his forces need more Western weapons before they can launch a counteroffensive.

(antiwar.com)

… according to POLITICO, there is a discussion among administration officials about convincing Ukraine to accept more modest goals and agree to a temporary ceasefire. Possible incentives for Kyiv include giving Ukraine NATO-like security guarantees and more military aid.

Keep in mind before this conflict heated up…. Russian and Ukrainian officials were engaged in peace talks, and Moscow’s primary demand was for Ukrainian neutrality. But now Kyiv stands to lose much more as Russia maintains any settlement must include recognizing the areas it annexed in the Donbas and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as Russian territory.

Sorry to bring that up….it does not trend with Russia bad, Putin’s a dick and victory at ALL costs.

How long will this continue?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Why Not Syria?

We all know about the conflict in Ukraine, we should the press has been cheer leading the war since the beginning, now that the leaked documents have been scrutinized there was one document that makes me ask questions.

Kiev’s military intelligence agency believed it could carry out attacks on Russian soldiers and Wagner Group forces in Syria, forcing Moscow to redeploy military assets from Ukraine. The story was reported by the Washington Post using documents released by Jack Teixeira.

The Ukrainian defense officials believed they could use Kurdish forces to wage a proxy war against Russia in Syria. According to the Post, the plan never materialized as President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered an end to the planning in December.

It appears that Ukrainian officials engaged in some discussions with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia backed by the US. The documents said the Kurdish officials requested training on drones and air defenses. Additionally, the Kurds said they would not attack Russian positions in areas held by the SDF, and requested their role in the operations be kept secret.

…

The document says Zelensky could allow the operations to proceed, but would likely require assistance from the US and Turkey. Ankara may be unwilling to support the covert proxy warfare as it views the SDF as a terrorist organization, and has long protested Washington arming the Syrian Kurds.

Additionally, the operations could inflame the war in Syria. The decade-long war has seen a dip in violence in recent years as Assad and his allies have consolidated control over most of Syria. The US and SDF occupy the eastern third of the country. However, the SDF leadership has shown a willingness to work with Moscow. If Kurdish forces allow themselves to become a proxy force for Kiev, Moscow will likely aggressively target SDF positions in eastern Syria. 

(antiwar.com)

Seriously the US would bankroll this operation?

Must we always bankroll these petty wars?

Still waiting for an answer to my original question….what will the US get return on our investment in the Ukraine war?

Why aren’t more questions being asked about this situation?

Just wondering.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Long Peace

The war ended in1945 with the defeat of the axis powers…..and Europe entered into an age of reconstruction and a long peace(?).

Then there is Asia.

Japan surrendered after the US dropped 2 nukes on their homeland….unfortunately Asia did not have the same reaction to the end of the war.

Violence erupted everywhere….China, Vietnam, Indonesia so on and so on….But why was there little peace in the Far East?

And yes this is one of those historical perspectives that I have become famous for throwing at my readers.

Decolonisation is one reason for the eruption of violence across the Asian continent. The outbreak of civil wars from the ruins of the Second World War was another historical phenomenon that contributed to the instability of the region, as local actors sought to take advantage of the changes in the balance of power on the ground to build new postcolonial states to their liking. Ho Chi Minh and his Communist Party may have defeated the French at Dien Bien Phu, but they also attacked non-communist nationalists who had rejected their right to rule an independent – communist – Vietnam. If the communists dominated their Vietnamese adversaries during the First Indochina War, in Indonesia a series of violent civil clashes saw the non-communist Republicans led by Sukarno vanquish their communist competitors. The Chinese civil war is another example that Spector analyses: civil and national wars of liberation continued across Asia beyond 1945, something that Europe did not encounter (with the important exception of Greece).

The Cold War did much to spread violence across the Asian continent. The key moment was the victory of the Chinese communists over the nationalists in 1949, prompting American efforts to contain the potential Sino-Soviet threat to the region. Contesting ideologies were part of the problem. So were security concerns. The spectre of the Japanese march across the Pacific in 1941-42 was never far from American minds. But the same was true for Mao, who feared the possibility of another hostile invasion coming from the sea. Spector deftly shows how, between 1950 and 1954, the Americans and the Chinese clashed directly in Korea and indirectly in Vietnam, entangling their struggles for ideological influence and national security with the civil and colonial wars that had been brewing across the continent for years.

https://www.historytoday.com/archive/review/fight

Some of the problems the US is having in Asia these days can be traced back to the end of World War 2…..

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I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Is Ukraine A Stalemate?

Probably not.  (Semantics)

More like an impasse.

Impasse: a predicament affording no obvious escape.

That is my thought….no matter how much equipment and money that is poured into Ukraine this situation will only be settled by negotiations….the only thing a prolonged war accomplishes is more death and destruction.

But stalemate is liberally used in this case….

But stalemate often involves large and bloody battles. The Battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele took place in conditions of stalemate. Hundreds of thousands were killed in those battles that moved the front lines a little, but not much. And stalemates can ultimately be broken, as the one in World War I eventually was. One side or the other can lose its will. One side or the other can gain a new ally (like the US in World War I). One side or the other can gain a technological advantage, although that’s less common (and was less important in World War I than the entry of the US). One side or the other can just be ground down and collapse (like Russia in 1917). Many things can happen in the context of a huge amount of fighting and dying, all in conditions of stalemate. That is the most likely course of action we see in Ukraine right now.

Our assessment that the Russian campaign has culminated and that conditions of stalemate are emerging rests on our assessments, laid out carefully in many fully documented reports published on our website (not just maps) and increasingly validated by reports from various Western intelligence communities, that the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. The kinds of mobilizations the Russians are engaging in will generate renewed fighting power in months at the earliest. Unless something remarkable happens to break the stalemate now settling in, the stalemate is likely to last for months. Hence our assessment and our forecast.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-stalemate-means-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

All sides seem to want this conflict to go on and on…..so how may this situation be resolved….

Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. So how might the war end? Here are five scenarios to consider.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/24/how-might-the-ukraine-war-end

Then there is the BS about the tanks and planes will change the direction of the conflict….not gonna happen.

Western and NATO countries promised to send modern weaponry to Ukraine. As U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, the intent was to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to drive Russia out. As signs indicate a Ukrainian spring offensive may soon launch, many Western military analysts claim that a sufficient amount of Western armor could turn things around for Ukraine. A careful analysis reveals such optimism may be misplaced.

Bad News: NATO Tanks, Planes, and Artillery Unlikely to Win Ukraine War

All that is left now in Eastern Ukraine is to start digging the trenches….(a WW1 reference in case you are confused….which you probably are….)

How will this end?

And the war drags on….and on….

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”