Fearless Leader, Come On Down!

Recently the Russians issued a statement that they had killed the leader of ISIS, al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqaa Syria…..they have said they are 90% sure that he has been killed.

But first………

The 2003 American invasion of Iraq, which came not long after the invasion of Afghanistan, proved to be highly controversial, not only for the rationale behind the invasion (Saddam Hussein and his putative support of 9/11 and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction) but for how the war itself and the governing of the country were conducted. On May 11, 2003, President George W. Bush appointed L. Paul “Jerry” Bremer as the Presidential Envoy to Iraq and then the top civilian administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). Shortly thereafter, two of the CPA’s most notable decrees entered into force, on May 16, 2003 and May 23, respectively:  CPA Order Number 1 , which banned the Ba’ath party in all forms, a process otherwise known as de-Baathification; and CPA Order Number 2, which dismantled the Iraqi army.

The US got rid of the Iraqi army and its generals….then some question this decision…..

The latter decision was sharply criticized in hindsight, as many observers blame it for fueling the insurgency that would plague the country to this day. Bremer defends the decision by noting that most of the Iraqi army had been brutalized under Saddam and had no desire to continue serving if given the chance. Therefore, in the Pentagon’s terminology, the Iraqi army “self-demobilized.

To this day that one decision haunts the country of Iraq…..

Source: Iraq’s de-Baathification still haunts the country – Al Jazeera English

About here there will be some that are questioning my motivation for this post….and I will clear it all up…..

If Baghdadi is truly dead and there seems to be no successor waiting in the wings then analyst think that there will emerge an Iraqi general from Saddam’s day to take over the leadership of the group.

Source: If Baghdadi is dead, next IS leader likely to be Saddam-era officer – Iraqi News

To me it makes perfect sense….ISIS is losing on almost all fronts if there is a way to re-group and come back punching it will take a military man with experience and sense the US made sure that there would be a wealth of experienced officers with their ill conceived de-Baathification program available…….the prospect is good that a Saddam general will rise to the top of the group.

We did what we always do…..make the seeds of opposition easy to sprout and grow…..

Another round fired into the foot of the nation.

Death Of A Bad Man

Word is spreading through the news organization that ISIS leader, al-Baghdadi, has been killed in a Russian airstrike…..I believe this is the 5th time he has either been injured or killed…..what we need is verification…..not speculation…

Russia’s claim to have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in Raqqa on May 28 should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. At the time in question, the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) were only days away from launching their final assault on the city and there’s no logical reason imaginable why Baghdadi would have risked staying in a surrounded, sitting target. Notwithstanding justified doubts surrounding Baghdadi’s then presence in Raqqa, Russia’s statement also says its strike killed another 330 ISIS fighters – which is almost certainly an absurd claim.

Russia has a long track record of issuing fake claims and deliberate misinformation during its campaign in Syria. This recent statement also contradicts a claim by its Syrian partner, the Assad regime, to have killed Baghdadi themselves on June 10. Either Baghdadi has dozens of lives, or nobody really knows where he is.

Source: Russia’s Baghdadi Claim Needs Verification | Middle East Institute

Let us say that their claim is genuine…..what will that mean for the region?

Does that mean we may be winning the War on Terror?  I think not…there will be someone to step into the void.

The news of the possible death of the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, no doubt filled most people with a certain sense of relief. It’s not often the death of a human being elicits such an emotion but Baghdadi, most sane people can agree, barely makes the homo sapiens cut.

Nonetheless, our collective exhale may be premature. According to the Russian defence ministry, Baghdadi may have been caught by a Russian airstrike targeting a meeting of senior ISIS commanders south of Raqqa, the capital of the group’s self-declared caliphate, at the end of May. He was reportedly killed along with 30 other mid-level ISIS commanders and 300 fighters.

Source: Why the death of ISIS’s leader could spell trouble – Macleans.ca

You see if he is dead then he is one terrorist dead…there are many others waiting their turn.

Do not rejoice…..be vigilante…..

It’s WMDs–Once Again

Not long ago the Syrian military was accused of using CWs on the civilian population and that caused a missile response by the Trump admin….and for weeks afterwards the big story was the use of these weapons and where Syria got them since they supposedly had all theirs destroyed in the early days of this conflict.

Of course Russia was the culprit during these debates and that has since died down….but then there was a new twist to the CW thing…..and it involves ISIS this time…..

A US official warns ISIS could be getting all its chemical weapons experts together in a “chemical weapons cell” in a last-ditch effort to defend its remaining territory in Syria. CNN reports the unnamed official says the experts are from Iraq and Syria and haven’t previously worked together. “We know ISIS is willing to use chemical weapons. This is not something we want to see them get good at,” says Col. Ryan Dillon, a spokesperson for the US-led military coalition in Syria.

The unnamed official says the chemical weapons cell is convening in an area of ISIS-controlled Syria that the US military is getting more interested in. The official says the area in the Euphrates River Valley could now be the “de facto” ISIS capital as military pressure increases on Raqqa. Syrian forces are said to be tightening “their noose” on that ISIS stronghold, according to Reuters.

Now this should revive the whole false flag thing about the original use of these weapons……did ISIS use them in the first place?  Did the US overreact before the truth was fully known?

Yes it is not a good thing if ISIS is developing CWs for use in Syria and possibly elsewhere.

Will we know the truth about this or will we just hear more and more about who has these weapons and who has used these weapons?

I for one will wait until the “rest of the story” comes out.

Central Asia: A New Breeding Ground

I recently had a contract with a business man that needed some research on Central Asia for he was about to do business in the region……I wrote about gig……..

Source: Central Asia–A New Frontier – In Saner Thought

I have also written about all the countries that make up the region known as Central Asia.

Source: Tajikistan–Revisited – In Saner Thought

Source: Inside Kyrgyzstan – In Saner Thought

I revisited this contract from the past to illustrate that I have had my eye on the region….especially with the War on Terror.

Appears as if the recruitment and training of terrorists has moved into the region…….

Even before the recent terrorist attack in Stockholm, during which a Central Asian native drove a truck in a crowd of pedestrians at high speed, other immigrants from the region were suspected of launching two terrorist attacks in Turkey last year, along with the recent one committed in St. Petersburg.

The fact that the man suspected of Stockholm attack, which resulted in the death of four people, came to the EU from Uzbekistan drew the attention of western security operatives to the former Soviet republics of Central Asia that have recently become a source of extremism.

But how natives from CIS countries have so suddenly become a major terrorist threat to the world? The answer is pretty logical, since the rise of terrorism in Central Asia is closely linked to the chaos that Afghanistan has been submerged into in the last couple years.

Source: How Come Central Asian States have Become a Breading Ground for Terrorism | New Eastern Outlook

Central Asia is a region that few consider for anything…..but the tide is turning as they say for ISIS in the Middle East and there will be hunt for a new region to destroy and proclaim a caliphate….

Our foreign policy wonks should do well to keep this region on their radar.

Werewolves To The Right

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Note:  My schedule has tightened up…actually it has become a bit hectic…..between teaching and contract work I am at a loss for time…..I am having a difficult time running on 38 hour days……I regret that after today I will lighten up on the blog posts….instead of 5-6 posts a day…I will cut back to 2 or 3…..this is only temporary….I will still answer replies when I have a few minutes to myself……..please bear with me on this…..thanx for understanding……chuq

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I admit it…I watch the History Channel and its other identity, the AHC, but only when they have something historic airing….I will NOT watch the mindlessness of their reality shows about idiot stump jumpers chasing alligators or the modern day dumpster divers……and  as usual I find holes in their propaganda…they give only a very limited and nearsighted account of some of the situations.  At best it is propaganda rather than fact.

These days many people are looking for reasons why such barbaric groups as ISIS and AQ could come into being….the problem is that they are looking at simple excuses and not the root cause.

I was watching one such episode entitled, “Nazi Jihad”…..it was lame attempt to connect AQ and ISIS to a program of the Nazis late in WW2…the “werewolves”….a very simplistic attempt to tie jihadists to Nazi Germany…..

But first…the Nazi werewolves?

Werner Naumann, Goebbels’s top aide at the end of the war, sent out this interesting message by teletype to the Nazi Party’s regional propaganda offices in early April 1945. It calls on the remaining propagandists throughout Germany to devote their full efforts to building an underground resistance movement that would make Allied occupation unbearably costly. The Allies were in fact worried about the possibility of the Werewolf movement, but in the end Germans were more than ready to have the war over and not much came of this last-ditch effort.

Source: The Nazi Werewolf Movement

The history of this organization is colorful……but it is not the organization that gave rise to AQ or ISIS……some tactics may be similar but so are some of those used by the Great Khan….

The Werewolves were originally organised by the SS and the Hitler Youth as a diversionary operation on the fringes of the Third Reich, which were occupied by the Western Allies and the Soviets in the autumn of 1944. Some 5,000 — 6,000 recruits were raised by the winter of 1944-45, but numbers rose considerably in the following spring when the Nazi Party and the Propaganda Ministry launched a popular call to arms, beseeching everybody in the occupied areas — even women and children — to launch themselves upon the enemy. In typical Nazi fashion, this expansion was not co-ordinated by the relevant bodies, which were instead involved in a bureaucratic war among themselves over control of the project. The result was that the movement functioned on two largely unrelated levels: the first as a real force of specially trained SS, Hitler Youth and Nazi Party guerrillas; the second as an outlet for casual violence by fanatics

Source: Minutemen of the Third Reich (“Werewolf” guerilla movement – postwar sabotage & terror not new)

The tactics used by ISIS or AQ are just updated versions of “Art of War” and tactics used by the great Khan…..to mention only a few….

Yes a connection can be made…..like a connection can be made that the US waqs the originator of ISIS and AQ……,but that does not make it so….this was fake news and even worse…fake history.

6 Of One And A Half Dozen Of The Other

Every American knows how barbaric ISIS can be and that AQ was the bastards that lead to the 9/11 attack and the horrific actions since that fateful day…..

Our troops are fighting both organizations at the same time……all across the world ISIS and AQ affiliates are attacking and killing…..

But “what if” the two terror groups started working together and coordinate their attacks?

The leader of so-called ‘Islamic State’ (IS) has spoken to al Qaeda about a ‘possible alliance,’ according to Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi. The talks come as Iraqi troops close in on IS fighters in the city of Mosul.

Allawi told the Reuters news agency in an interview on Monday that he had the information from Iraqi and regional contacts knowledgeable about Iraq that “the discussion has started now.”

“There are discussions and dialogue between messengers representing [IS leader Abu Bakr] Baghdadi and representing [the head of al Qaeda, Ayman] al Zawahiri,” he said.

It is unclear how the two groups would work together, Allawi said.

Source: ′IS′ in talks with al Qaeda on ′possible alliance′ – report | News | DW.COM | 18.04.2017

Right now the talks are for Iraq and Syria….but if that is a success would that lead to a worldwide affiliation?

This is something that our counter-terrorism boys and girls should keep a close eye on this situation for this could lead to a much more dangerous world…..of course it could be just a ploy to make sure that the resources and cash keep flowing for years to come.

Any thoughts?

Avoiding Counter-Terrorism Pitfalls

The continuing saga of the fight against ISIS and AQ…..some say that Trump will defeat the bad guys……the fight is good but it must try to avoid any pitfalls that will make the situation worse…..

This report examines President Trump’s emerging counter-terrorism policies, the dilemmas his administration faces in battling ISIS and al-Qaeda across the Middle East and South Asia, and how to avoid deepening the disorder both groups exploit.

In pledging to destroy the Islamic State (ISIS), U.S. President Donald J. Trump looks set to make counter-terrorism a centrepiece of his foreign policy. His administration’s determination against groups that plot to kill Americans is understandable, but it should be careful when fighting jihadists not to play into their hands. The risks include angering local populations whose support is critical, picking untimely or counter-productive fights and neglecting the vital role diplomacy and foreign aid must play in national security policy. Most importantly, aggressive counter-terrorism operations should not inadvertently fuel other conflicts and deepen the disorder that both ISIS and al-Qaeda exploit.

The new U.S. administration has inherited military campaigns that are eating deep into ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate. Much of Mosul, its last urban stronghold in Iraq, has been recaptured; Raqqa, its capital in Syria, is encircled. Its decisive defeat is still a remote prospect while the Syrian war rages and Sunnis’ place in Iraqi politics is uncertain. The threat it poses will evolve in its heartlands and elsewhere, as fighters disperse. But ISIS is in retreat, its brand diminished. For many adherents, its allure was its territorial expansion; with that gone, its leaders are struggling to redefine success. Al-Qaeda could prove harder to suppress. Its affiliates fight across numerous war zones in coalitions with other armed groups, its operatives are embedded in local militias, and it shows more pragmatic adaptability to local conditions.

Source: Counter-terrorism Pitfalls: What the U.S. Fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda Should Avoid | Crisis Group

Our mission must stop the bleeding to propaganda making situations…..this will eliminate the only true weapon these “bad guys” have in the their recruiting methods.

We can win the battle but the war will continue….let’s try and not make it worse than it could be.