Predicting More Terrorist Attacks

Seems we have a horrific terrorist attack every 3 or 4 months…..this gives the paid “experts” something to do with every attack…..the pundits analyze it from almost every possible angle…….sometimes to the point of absurdity.

People are getting rich off of the “expertise” they provide for the MSM…..the thing they do best is help spread the fear that feeds their industry.  Apparently if you get a website and Tweet about terrorism regularly then you may claim the mantle of “Expert”……

At least 41 people were killed in the recent bombing of Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport.The day before, suicide bombers killed five people in Qaa, a small village in Lebanon. And while the Saudi-led and U.S.-backed war in Yemen continues to rage, an ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for attacks in the Yemeni port city of Mukalla that killed at least 12.

As of June 29, ISIS affiliates had claimed responsibility only for the Yemen attacks. But just a few hours after the Istanbul airport attack, Turkish authorities were already blaming ISIS. Since Ankara (unlike the U.S., where many officials blame ISIS for every act of violence) has been eager to blame every attack against Turkish targets on its Kurdish opponents — especially the Kurdish Workers Party, or PKK — the government’s early willingness to blame ISIS implies the likely existence of some convincing evidence.

Importantly, all three attacks took place following a significant defeat of ISIS on the ground.

Source: From Paris to Istanbul, More ‘War on Terror’ Means More Terrorist Attacks | Common Dreams | Breaking News & Views for the Progressive Community

And now Nice…….

I know this sounds a bit out there, right?

I have always wrote that a new approach to the threat of a terrorist attack needs to be found…..what that approach is…….very elusive.

Our only chance of an alternative to the stupidity of the system is to change the brains of the operation (insert raucous laughter)….very few people have any idea how to do that….voting is a worthless waste of energy…..for the song will stay the same…..

Is The “Caliphate” Collapsing?

I would like to thank a regular of IST, Ripening Wanderer, for giving me the idea for this post…..stop by his site if you get a chance…..https://theripeningwanderer.com/

The good news is that ISIS is steadily losing its footing in the Levant….the bad news is that the terror attacks do not seen to show this loss of territory….if anything they have picked up…….

I read a piece in the WaPo (not a reliable source but I could not find another source for this info) is reporting that ISIS has a new tactic in their bag of dirty tricks, the “Wolf Pack” attacks…..

ISIS, which measures success in the number of people its followers kill in bloody atrocities around the world, says it had a very successful Ramadan. In the latest issue of its al-Naba magazine, the group boasts that it killed or injured 5,200 people in 14 “military operations” during Ramadan, including the Orlando nightclub massacre, the murder of a police officer and his wife near Paris, and a particularly heinous bombing in Baghdad, reports Vocativ. The group also claims attacks in countries such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, and Turkey, saying its victims included 285 non-Arab Christians and almost 2,000 Shiite Muslims.

But while ISIS brags about far-flung attacks, its “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria is steadily shrinking, and analysts say the group appears to be bracing for the possible loss of all its territory, the Washington Post reports. A recent al-Naba editorial insists the group would survive as an underground organization even if the physical caliphate collapsed, and an ISIS operative who spoke to the Post on the condition his location was not revealed says the transition has already begun. “We do have, every day, people reaching out and telling us they want to come to the caliphate,” he says. “But we tell them to stay in their countries and rather wait to do something there.” He adds: “There is a message to all members of the coalition against us: We will not forget, and we will come into your countries and hit you.” (Highly organized “wolf pack” attacks are seen as ISIS’ new signature.)

They may lose all the conquered territory but as long as they employ terror as a tactic they will not be defeated….and the world will suffer.

(watch for my upcoming series on terrorism)

 

Declaring War on “Islamist Extremism” Is Nonsense

Another attack and another round of fights over terminology……most of it is NOTHING new…most of it should be just re-blogged and save what limited mental facilities that some have…I mean the lack of brain power it takes to say the same thing over and over is just amazing…..

But because there is NOTHING new in the words of the illiterate…..they are becoming a one theme post prodigy…….I need to post this piece written in the the National Interests……BTW not a liberal publication….just in case one wants to start the lame name calling…..it is one of you guys….

What matters is not whether a group is Islamist, but whether it endangers America.

It is news to no one that Congress is filled with cowards.

The Constitution places the power to declare war with the legislative branch. This does not mean simply taking note that the president has bombed or invaded another nation. Congress decides whether there will be a war to fight. Constitutional Convention delegate James Wilson explained: “It will not be in the power of a single man, or a single body of men, to involve us in such distress; for the important power of declaring war is in the legislature at large.”

Source: Declaring War on “Islamist Extremism” Is Nonsense | The National Interest Blog

Arguing and debating over terminology takes valuable time and thought away from eliminating the culprit….but then if we do that then these one trick ponies will have NOTHING to write about…now would they?

Why Hasn’t Congress Authorized Force Against ISIS?

With all the conflicts we are participating in when was the last time any of it was authorized by Congress?  (play Jeopardy music here)…….when was 2001 Alex.

Since then we are fighting in engagement after engagement without a vote…..under the Constitution that makes they illegal wars and are subject to international law.

So why hasn’t Congress done their duty on this issue?  I mean they waste time on stupid votes and it would seem that committing American troops to a life or death situation should take priority over this Obamacare battle……but then I am an apologist so I would ask such a probing question…..

Maybe the American Conservative can help answer this question…..

This coming August, the United States will have been engaged in a war against the Islamic State for two years. Tens of thousands of U.S. airstrikes on ISIS targets will have been conducted, billions of dollars will have been spent, and several thousand advisers and special-operations forces will have been sent to Iraq and Syria to gather intelligence, train local forces, and prepare plans for the final thrust into the cities of Mosul and Raqqa.

All of this will have happened without the U.S. Congress performing its most important job under the Constitution: declaring war or passing an authorization for the use of military force. In a new lawsuit, one professor, one human rights lawyer, and a captain in the U.S. Army aim to force the issue.

Source: Why Hasn’t Congress Authorized Force Against ISIS? | The American Conservative

Read the article and then make your comment……please……

Fighting ISIS With an Algorithm

In the days of my studies of international relations I studied the technique of a Dr. Bueno de Mesquita….he designed an algorithm that can be used to predict international events……he was tested by the CIA and others and his technique was about 90% accurate consistently…human prediction was a 50-50 at best.

I found it fascinating that an algorithm could be employed with such accuracy…..and now it appears that the US is trying this technique to try and predict the possibility of attack from ISIS…….

A new mathematical model aims to track the activity of Islamic State sympathizers online and determine when groups will turn from talk to action.

After Orlando and San Bernardino and Paris, there is new urgency to understand the signs that can precede acts of terrorism. And with the Islamic State’s prolific use of social media, terrorism experts and government agencies continually search for clues in posts and Twitter messages that appear to promote the militants’ cause.

A physicist may not seem like an obvious person to study such activity. But for months, Neil Johnson, a physicist at the University of Miami, led a team that created a mathematical model to sift order from the chaotic pro-terrorism online universe.

Source: Fighting ISIS With an Algorithm, Physicists Try to Predict Attacks – The New York Times

Some may find this a bit mundane and dry….but it is a new field that does show some possibilities…..if it can be as helpful as the algorithm of Dr, de Mesquita then there could be a major break through in the fight against ISIS.

After 15 Years What Did We Accomplish?

9/11 attacks will be 15 years ago this September…..and it will be the 15th anniversary of the War on Terror…..and in those 15 years what has been done to win this War on Terror?

We invaded Afghanistan and put the Taleban on its back foot…..we finally tracked down and killed Osama…..we invaded and have occupied Iraq and rid the world of a tyrant, Saddam and in doing so unleashed the dogs of Hell….so I ask again…..what has the war on terror accomplished?

We have killed a lot of people mostly civilians…..we have caused countless dollars of destruction and devastation and in all that time we have not ended this war….we have made new enemies and irritated old ones…..

All in all….it has NOT been a productive 15 years…..

I found a good piece in “The American Conservative”….believe it or not….they do publish some good articles……and this analysis is a really spot on piece of work.

It’s been almost a decade and a half since 9/11, but the foreign-policy establishment still cannot admit that continuous American intervention in the Middle East has been a failure.

I recently attended a conference entitled “Hindsight: Reflections on 15 Years of the War on Terror.” With a wide range of highly respectable speakers, I naively expected that the panels would conclude that the so-called “global war on terror” had been a misguided project ab initio, that the United States continues to repeat mistakes in its national security policy that promote rather than discourage terrorism—and that the terrorism threat itself has been grossly inflated for largely political and economic reasons.

Source: Washington’s Terrorism as Usual | The American Conservative

And this election that approaches smells like it will be yet another 15 years of the same unproductive policies….and that does not matter which candidate wins the contest.

Are We Winning?

If every success some of our supported minions have then we are told that we are winning the war on terror….when we kill a leader or destroy a cash stash or drive a group from this site or another…if every one of those we are told, mostly by the propaganda arm of the government, the media…..we are slowly winning the war…..but are we?

I read a story that says that the number of terrorist attacks has declined over the last year……

The State Department says there was a 13% decrease in the number of global terrorist attacks between 2014 and 2015—the first such decline since 2012. There were 11,774 attacks that resulted in 28,328 deaths in 2015, compared with 13,463 attacks in 2014 that killed 32,727 people, according to an annual survey of worldwide terrorism, per the AP. Of those killed in 2015, 19 were private American citizens, compared with 24 in 2014. Attacks and deaths declined in Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria, but they increased in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, the Philippines, Syria, and Turkey. Iran remained the “foremost state sponsor of terrorism in 2015” through its support of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and anti-Israel groups such as Hamas, the report says.

The Islamic State remained the greatest worldwide terrorist threat with a “formidable force” of fighters in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda and affiliates also remained active in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and parts of West Africa and North Africa, where it continued to stage mass casualty strikes, including on hotels in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Tunisia, as well as the bombing of a Russian passenger jet, the report finds. In East Africa, the report notes that Somali group al-Shabab remained a serious threat in 2015 not only in Somalia but in neighboring Kenya. Along with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, the Sinai, Somalia, and Syria, the report designated Libya, the southern Philippines, the Sahara, Yemen, and portions of Colombia and Venezuela as “terrorist safe havens” where groups are able to operate with relative ease due to poor or inadequate governance.

Could that be a realistic indicator that we are winning….or is it just another “feel good” story that the media likes to pass off as news?

Personally, I do not see it….I mean terror is a tactic not an entity…..we can possibly lessen the attacks….but defeating it…..I have my doubts.

Apparently the UN is not that optimistic either….

A new report from UN Undersecretary-General Jeffrey Feltman warned today that despite a lot of talk of ISIS suffering major setbacks in recent weeks, the group is not being weakened strategically, and continues to attract large amounts of recruits internationally.

Feltman’s report conceded that airstrikes have put ISIS’ oil revenue under pressure, but that they have been able to significantly diversify their sources of funding, including smuggling antiquities and taxing the local population of their territory.

The report also says ISIS is converting its stores of local currency into gold and other tradable commodities, and seeking to increase the amount of revenue it generates from kidnapping and ransoming international hostages.

Rather than an ISIS in decline, the report says ISIS is moving to “a new phase,” trying to build up its affiliates, move its assets abroad, and send more returnees back to their countries of origin to launch attacks globally.

What are your, my readers, thoughts?