More On North Korea

First there was the insults and then as quick as falling out of a chair we were making nice with each other and now there is a possibility that there could be peace between the three partners in this deal.

Could there be a reason for the quick turn around of North Korea….other the good intentions that we are claiming as the reason…..

Kim Jong Un on Saturday said nuclear tests would no longer be conducted at the underground Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility; a new report from the Wall Street Journal suggests the move may not be as benevolent as it appears. It flags an about-to-be-published study by Chinese researchers who say that much of the facility below Mount Mantap is actually useless following the country’s last detonation, which the seismologists say caused a partial cavity collapse. This isn’t exactly new news: Satellite images taken before and after the country’s sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3 show the 7,200-foot-tall Mount Mantap actually lost elevation. Reports at the time suggested “tired mountain syndrome,” which has previously been observed at other nuclear test sites in the US and Soviet Union, was at play.

It essentially means a mountain is under such stress that the collapse of cavities or tunnels is possible. The Journal reports the upcoming study and another published this month provide more evidence that such a collapse did occur. Using data captured by Chinese seismic monitoring stations, they arrived at the same conclusion: that a 6.3-magnitude quake caused by the test led to a collapse inside the mountain that caused a 4.1-magnitude temblor 8.5 minutes later. The second study didn’t comment on whether the facility is still usable, and a commentary at 38 North asserts “there is no basis to conclude” it isn’t. Yes, the “North Portal” might be damaged, but there are two portals “located in more pristine competent rock” that the site believes would be appropriate for testing.
Could this be the reason for the warm and fuzzies that North Korea has for the US?
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What The Hell Happened?

Do you remember the silly name calling by Trump and Lil Kim?  To many we were close of a nuke meltdown….I also thought there was a chance that all that rhetoric could be a chance for escalation.

After all the doom and gloom we have had a break through…….it appears as if all is coming up daisies and unicorns……

Nukes were the center of all the back and forth…..and now that has changed…..

North Korea’s official state media has announced that as of Saturday, all nuclear and long-range missile testing in the country are being suspended indefinitely. They also announced they will be closing their nuclear testing site.

The decisions were made at a meeting of the nation’s Central Committee, and officials say it marks a broad shift in national focus, toward trying to improve North Korea’s economy. It is also a very helpful move for the peace process.

Oh but wait there is so much more……

North Korea has expressed a desire for the “complete denuclearisation” of the Korean peninsula without attaching preconditions such as the withdrawal of US troops, the South Korean president has said.

The statement, unconfirmed by North Korea, comes before a summit between the leaders of the two countries on 27 April, to be followed in May or June by a meeting between Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, and Donald Trump

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/19/north-korea-wants-complete-denuclearisation-says-seoul

After all the chest thumping on both sides…..the “rhetoric” was the story in the past…..what would it be if that were eliminated?

a hotline between North and South Korea as turned on. The line connects North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in. The two are expected to talk over the phone ahead of next Friday’s summit.

Perhaps the biggest change is in rhetoric. North Korea in particular has dialed back anti-US rhetoric significantly. On Thursday, North Korea announced that they are okay giving up nuclear weapons even with the US leaving troops in South Korea. At no point in recent history has North Korea been so open to such a dramatic deal. South Korea and the US have similarly been a lot more optimistic about deals with North Korea over the past several months, as diplomatic efforts starting around the Winter Olympics have grown.

Who would have thought it?  After all the war baiting that the Korean Peninsula would become a more peaceful place.

What will the war Hawks do now?  Iran should prepare itself for new attacks on them by Israel which will make the case for US intervention.

North Korea And The Saga Continues

Just a few short months ago there was a tremendous war of words between Pres. Trump and Kim of North Korea…….and then as quickly as it had started the dialog change 180 degrees and the two countries were making nice….it caught most of us off guard for we had bee seeing the possibility of a second Korean War brewing….the neocons were push for the “bloody nose” scenario and others were pushing for a more diplomatic solution to all the escalation.

Then like a bolt from the hands of Zeus word came down that Kim had offered to shut down his enrichment sites and South Korea rejoiced……

All this was good news and the possibility that any armed conflict could be avoided…..but now that there seems to be a real plan forming the MSM has jumped on the opposite tack……

And that’s just the start of the reasons for optimism. A hotline between North and South Korea opened last Friday. The US is considering opening an embassy in Pyongyang. President Trump will also be having his own summit with Kim in late May or early June.

North Korea has made numerous significant concessions. They’ve halted missile and nuclear testing and are in the process of closing their nuclear testing site. Most significantly, they are open to a deal to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula without demanding 30,000 US troops withdraw from South Korea.

MSM is trying to find anything that can make it into the news in opposition to these meetings…..

All the very meaningful deals and announcements of the last four months adds up to a lot. That Reuters managed to find three South Koreans and one Japanese person who were skeptical means comparatively little. That they’re going to such great lengths to put a negative spin on the talks at all, however, may be much more important.

The Washington Post is also looking for reasons to be suspicious about North Korea’s promises. The New York Times is trying to portray China as an obstacle to progress on a deal. They further cited unnamed US and South Korean officials as believing North Korea’s peace overtures were a trick to get big concessions out of them. Even the Associated Press chimed in with a list of diplomatic efforts that have failed.

(antiwar.com)

It appears that little has changed….the MSM doing all it can to generate the news and set the dialog…..if they can sabotage this diplomatic effort….what will be next…the Iranian deal?

White Flags And Rice

OMG!  Pompeo had “secret” meetings in North Korea….and yet that is not the headline that should be the focus……a “secret” meeting after all the juvenile banter by the two leaders…..after the insult throwing…..there may well be a light in this cave.

Joint statement may be released during upcoming summit

North and South Korea may soon declare an end to their protracted war, according to reports detailing ongoing discussions. The two nations have been in a state of war since 1950, with the Korean War having never formally gotten beyond an armistice.

Seriously?

Or is this just one of those stories by Hanity that is pure fiction?

In 1953, North and South Korean leaders met at the “Peace House” in the border village of Panmunjom to sign an armistice ending hostilities in the Korean War. Some 65 years later, a historic meeting at the same spot may finally mean the war’s official end. In a report being shared by Western media outlets such as Newsweek and CNBC, South Korean newspaper Munhwa Ilbo says that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-In may sign a joint statement at the April 27 meeting that outlines a permanent end to the war. The paper reports the two leaders may also reveal plans to return the 160-mile-long demilitarized zone separating the countries to its original state.

Those outcomes appear far from certain, however, with Moon’s chief of staff setting expectations for the summit lower. “It may lead to the establishment of regular dialogue at Panmunjom,” said Im Jong-seok, reports Yonhap News. But, he added, “We expect the summit will confirm the denuclearization will (of North Korea), and hope to have a comprehensive agreement with the North on the matter,” per Reuters. And in a level of cooperation thought impossible only months ago, Im said a direct phone line between Kim and Moon could be set up by Friday.

Boy this could change the tune of the news for a couple of days…..something that Trump desperately needs.

I cannot wait to read the minutes of a peace meeting…..who is gonna step up as the antagonist?

This could be Trump’s big chance to actually leave a mark on history……..other than being a juvenile ego driven leader.

25 Years Of Negotiations

We all know the back and forth of Trump and Kim….and in those months so much bullshit has been given ink on this subject……those of us that like diplomacy and those other dickheads that want to bomb everyone disagreeing with them into the Stone Age…..

All these people how many know the history of our negotiations with North Korea?  How Many?  (Pause to see if they let go of their wanker to read further)…….

Since I am some what of a student of foreign policy let me help…..

With the prospect of Donald Trump holding a summit with Kim Jong Un in the near future, it’s worth looking back at the history of American negotiations with North Korea over the past 25 years.

The conventional wisdom says that whenever any agreement has been reached, North Korea has cheated. But the reality is more complex. Not all negotiations have failed — and the collapse of agreements during that time has been as much the responsibility of Washington as of Pyongyang.

Start with the Agreed Framework of October 1994. North Korea agreed to freeze its reactor at Yongbyon. In return, the Clinton administration promised heavy fuel oil, support for the construction of proliferation-resistant light-water reactors, and a gradual overall improvement in relations.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/fault-sides-25-years-north-korea-negotiations

This will go a long way to educate those fools that think they have all the damn answers…….at least it will help them if they are so inclined and most are not……

 

Rocket Man And The Dotard

Hey Stormy is NO longer front page news…..now we have the impromptu meeting between Li’l Kim and Trumpy……and as usual the speculation is running rampant……so I thought I would add a little to the conversation…..

Op-ed from the Lowy Institute……..

If the North Korean cheerleaders at the Olympics hadn’t snared enough global attention already, the prospect of a grip-and-grin meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un sure has captured headlines.

It seems, to borrow the military phrase, a sudden escalation in peaceful possibilities. Last year Trump was hurling “Rocket Man” and fire and fury tweets across the Pacific, while the North Korean regime fired back at the “dotard” in the White House, and the whole situation was worryingly tense. Malcolm Turnbull warned about prospect of invoking the ANZUS alliance should conflict errupt, and Trump was bragging about the size of his nuclear button.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/03/09/rocket_man_and_the_dotard_113176.html

The insults are silent……and the world will hold its breath praying for some sanity by the two leaders.

Let’s hope that this is more than a photo op…..let’s hope that these two realize the seriousness of this opportunity and they make the most out of the tie they have…..

The date of this meeting is said to be in “May”…..whatcha think….yes/no?

Hands Across The DMZ

While you were making sleep and dreams……Hell began to freeze (a bit)……..

After all the big talk….after all the threats….after all the macho posturing it appears as if the US/South Korea/North Korea nuke situation may have been tamped down  bit.

Li’L Kim has offered to talk…..Trump has accepted (at least for now) and South Korea can change their drawers now……

In a startling development, North Korea says it will halt its nuclear weapons program and Kim Jong Un will meet with President Trump in the coming months, the Washington Post reports. “[Kim] expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible,” Chung Eui-yong told reporters Thursday at the White House. “President Trump said he would meet Kim Jong Un by May.” The South Korean national security adviser was part of a delegation that arrived at the White House on Thursday to deliver a letter from Kim directly to Trump, according to CNN. Chung had led a delegation that met with Kim in Pyongyang on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times reports. That meeting left South Korea feeling hopeful about a diplomatic solution to the ongoing nuclear crisis with North Korea.

There’s no information about where the meeting between Trump and Kim will take place, but it will be the first face-to-face meeting between a sitting US president and the leader of North Korea. In fact, no sitting president has even held a phone call with with the North Korean leader. Chung gave Trump credit for the breakthrough. “I explained to President Trump that his leadership and his maximum pressure strategy … brought us to this juncture,” Chung said. But analysts are split on whether Kim is agreeing to halt his nuclear program and meet with Trump because sanctions are working and he fears a US attack or because he now sees the countries as equal nuclear powers. Kim will meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in next month—only the third-ever meeting between the leaders of North and South Korea since 1953.

This is a great opportunity to solve a nagging problem of nukes on the Korean Peninsula….my worry is that there are not enough actual experts on the situation for any successful outcome.

However, this is a great chance for a peaceful conclusion to a tense situation…..then why do I have this uneasy feeling that it will go to crap before the meeting takes place?

There is not much time before the proposed meeting and with experienced diplomats many thing could go wrong….like…..

No location set. No location for the meeting has been set, though Mar-a-Lago is probably a long shot, the Guardian reports. Experts say that while there is a chance Kim could visit Washington or Trump could visit Pyongyang, more neutral potential venues include China, South Korea, or the DMZ.

A “real challenge” for diplomats. Analysts say it is going to be tough for the State Department to assemble a team that can support the historic summit. “The State Department has hemorrhaged Korean linguists and former negotiators” and North Korea “will send people with 30 years of experience, Douglas H. Paal at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace tells the Washington Post. “This is a real challenge.”

Trump optimism. Trump sounded optimistic about the meeting Thursday night. “Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze,” he tweeted. “Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!”

Talks, not negotiations. A senior administration official tells the Los Angeles Times that at this point, “we’re not really talking about negotiations.” Trump “has been very clear from the beginning that he is not prepared to reward North Korea in exchange for talks,” the official says. “But he is willing to accept an invitation at this time to meet and to allow—and really expects—North Korea to put action to these words that were conveyed via the South Koreans.”

Is Trump being played? Analysts say the summit is a massive gamble—one that risks legitimizing one of the world’s worst human rights abusers. “We got nothing for it. And Kim will never give up his nukes,” Obama administration Asia adviser Evan S. Medeiros tells the New York Times. “Kim played Moon and is now playing Trump.”

Like I said…..so many things can go wrong…..

I wish I could be more optimistic….but after 12 months of the Reality Show in the White House I sadly cannot be so…..this is just a show for both sides.

And this is how you get “Stormy” off the front pages.