Iran: A Big Ass Can Of Worms?

Everyone is watching the drama with the US and North Korea play out….so far there has been little more than words fired at each other.  Almost daily there is an exchange of words…well threats, veiled threats…….and daily the speculation ramps up to a feverish pitch.

But behind the headlines and the scenes another nuke crisis is brewing…..the world is the the deal between the P5+1 and Iran on their nuke programs is in jeopardy….the rhetoric is not as loud between these player than the US and NK…..but the simmer pot is getting hotter everyday.

Word is the Trump is prepared to not re-certify the deal….even though all conditions seem to be met at this point.  The news is not good and Iran has jumped onto the rhetoric bandwagon….

The news that had come out the the US will not re-certify the deal and possibly extend more sanctions on Iran….that news has the Iranians thumping their chests as well….

Iran warned the United States against designating its Revolutionary Guards Corp as a terrorist group and said U.S. regional military bases would be at risk if further sanctions were passed.

The warning came after the White House said on Friday that President Donald Trump would announce new U.S. responses to Iran’s missile tests, support for “terrorism” and cyber operations as part of his new Iran strategy.

“As we’ve announced in the past, if America’s new law for sanctions is passed, this country will have to move their regional bases outside the 2,000 km range of Iran’s missiles,” Guards’ commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said, according to state media.

Source: Iran warns U.S. against imposing further sanctions

Before you take sides maybe you should learn a bit about the deal….

US President Donald Trump is expected to refuse to certify Iran’s compliance with the landmark 2015 nuclear deal, an agreement between world powers and Tehran aimed at limiting the latter’s nuclear programme to non-military purposes.

The move comes despite thinly-veiled criticisms from US allies in Europe who have developed burgeoning commercial and political ties with Iran

Source: Trump and the Iran deal: What you need to know | Iran News | Al Jazeera

I have stated many times that I support the Iranian deal….if a person would familiarize oneself with the deal then I think any rational American would support it also.

If for NO other reason than the problem with North Korea and its nuke resources could be doubled if the US pulls out of the Iran deal……how much further can this go before someone has the bright idea to stop talking and that the time for action is NOW?

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What Is He Thinking?

Nate has left town!  Like all good windbags he is headed toward DC……now onto the news of the new week…..

To answer the question……He is not!

This week will tell the tale….will our president be so stupid as to “decertify” the Iranian nuke deal?

Word is President Trump will “decertify” the Iran nuclear deal next week, giving Congress 60 days to decide whether to stay in the agreement or void it by imposing new sanctions on Iran. Citing “people briefed” on the matter, the Washington Post reports Trump is expected to deliver a speech, possibly on Oct. 12, laying out his administration’s new Iranian policy. CNN, whose sources include “two senior US officials,” reports that policy would be to work within the framework of the nuclear deal, which limits Iran’s nuclear activities, while attempting to strengthen it for the US. But Iran has said it’s not interested in renegotiating the deal, and European leaders say they don’t want to change the terms of the deal.

Germany, France, Britain, Russia, China, Iran, and even the US all agree Iran has held up its side of the nuclear deal. And on Tuesday Defense Secretary James Mattis said he believes it’s “in our national security interest” to remain in the deal. But Trump campaigned on the nuclear deal being unfair to the US. The president is said to be weary of a tenet of the deal wherein he must go to Congress every 90 days to report whether Iran is complying with it and if it remains in the national interest of the US.

I think that this will be a bonehead move……first, I would bet that he has NO idea what is said in the deal….but yet he is trapp[ed by his political rhetoric during the campaign and now if he wants to retain his base support he feels he must do something.

Let me help you understand the deal and then you will be one ahead of the guy called “president”….plus it is not that difficult…..Negotiators reached a historic accord last summer to limit Tehran’s nuclear ability in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. Here is a guide to the Iran nuclear deal.

I told you it was not that difficult.

People everywhere are masking the case for the Iranian nuke deal……

Wake up. We are sleepwalking into an armed conflict. The hidden scandal of the Iraq War — the manipulation of intelligence to support a predetermined outcome — is now an overt political strategy to undermine a multilateral nonproliferation agreement. At a time when Iran was hurtling toward a nuclear threshold not easily undone by force or persuasion, the United States struck an accord with allies and adversaries alike that averted the solution everyone feared most — the kinetic option.

Now, those most vocal prior to the deal about the imminent threat of a nuclear Iran want to scrap the deal, put the world back on the brink of conflict, and open up a second nuclear front.

Source: Countdown to zero: The case for the Iran deal | TheHill

There is so much wrong with this idea of not certifying the deal and yet with all data available they are still playing a dangerous game……why?

Source: We Don’t Need No Stinking Deal! – In Saner Thought

The US has a major problem with the situation in North Korea….the nukes, the missiles, and the rhetoric…..and then Trump pulls out of this deal with Iran then he as doubled the nuke problem overnight

Trump is choosing a multi-front nuclear stand-off……he could be choosing a war over something as stupid as his political rhetoric.

To add fuel to the fire….trump offers up some cryptic statement at a dinner for military leaders…..

President Trump made an ominous remark after meeting with his top military commanders—and declined to explain what he was talking about. “You guys know what this represents?” Trump told reporters as he posed for a photo with First Lady Melania Trump, military officials, and their spouses before a White House dinner Thursday night. “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm.” When asked to clarify the remark, Trump said “we have the world’s great military people” present, CBS reports. Asked again what the “storm” might be, Trump said: “You’ll find out” and ended the questioning.

Trump may have been talking about Iran: Earlier Thursday, sources said Trump plans to “decertify” Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, which is due for recertification by Oct. 15. “The Iranian regime supports terrorism and exports violence and chaos across the Middle East,” Trump said at the meeting with military leaders, per the Guardian. “That is why we must put an end to Iran’s continued aggression and nuclear ambitions.” There has also been speculation that Trump was referring to action against ISIS or North Korea, reports the BBC.

Great timing!  The weekend was spent in wild speculation by the MSM….something the media excels at….wild speculation.

But with this guy named Trump….we will not know for sure what what will come out of his mouth until it comes out of his mouth.

Turn The Page!

We Don’t Need No Stinking Deal!

Obama and his partners in the P5+1 work hard and finally a deal was reached between Iran and the rest of the world on their pursuit of nukes.

A perfect deal?  Of course not!  No deal is perfect but as long as it holds up and the all players are satisfied then it is a success.  I know most everyone has an opinion on the Iran thing….those same people have strong opinion of the North Korean situation……but has anyone thought about them as a common problem?

During thew Obama admin it was certified that Iran was holding to the terms and it has been re-certified.  Same since Trump took over the throne of power….the only person in the Trump camp that does not like the deal is Trump himself and is said to be looking for ways to pull out before all is accomplished.

Let us move on (for the moment)….the other problem (nuke) is the mash-up with North Korea in its pursuit of nuke weapons and a delivery system.

The war of words is approaching a point of no-return, in my opinion…..Trumps chest thumping on NK remands of the same type of show that Israel has put on about Iran and its pursuit of a nuke future.

The US State Department has said that there are some backroom negotiations with NK to try and walk back this rush to open conflict.  But the president does not want a peaceful settlement of the animosities with NK…..

After lamenting the “almost impossible situation in Puerto Rico” and blasting “politically motivated ingrates” there Sunday morning, President Trump moved onto a new topic on Twitter: North Korea and its nuclear weapons program. The Guardian reports that barely 24 hours had passed since Secretary of State Rex Tillerson tried to assuage Americans by calling for calm and noting our “lines of communication” with Pyongyang, when Trump decided to put in his two cents on Tillerson’s efforts. “I told Rex Tillerson, our wonderful Secretary of State, that he is wasting his time trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man,” he tweeted midmorning, using a recent nickname he’d coined for Kim Jong Un.

He followed that up with: “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!” Later Sunday afternoon, Trump returned after a several-hour Twitter hiatus to add some more thoughts on the matter, tweeting, “Being nice to Rocket Man hasn’t worked in 25 years, why would it work now? Clinton failed, Bush failed, and Obama failed. I won’t fail.” During a press conference in Beijing Saturday, Tillerson had deemed Trump’s rhetoric on the situation “overheated.” It’s not clear what Trump’s “what has to be done” entails.

This is NOT the way to handle a touchy situation that become a no-return scenario…..Appearance are the Trump wants more war….that he will not consider a peaceful resolution to this situation.

I bring all this up because of a simple problem that they do not seem to grasp.  (This is where I tie the two situation together)

Trump in his haste to pacify neocons and Israel on the Iran deal could be created a similar problem that he is now having with NK….he could be turning one nuke crisis into two…..

During his first address to the United Nations General Assembly this month, US President Donald Trump took the opportunity to lash out at two countries in particular.

He described North Korea – or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as Pyongyang calls itself – as a “depraved” regime with a “twisted” mentality that consists of a “band of criminals” equipped with “nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles”. Trump then threatened to “totally destroy” the country if the US was forced into a corner.

In similar vein, he labelled Iran a “corrupt dictatorship” and pronounced the Iran nuclear deal – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and concluded between Tehran and world powers in July 2015 – as “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into”.

Obviously, for the US administration, there is a close link between these two challenges – will the North Korean nuclear crisis have serious policy implications for Washington’s attitude towards JCPOA?

Source: Trump logic: Turn one nuclear crisis into two by killing the Iran deal | Middle East Eye

Time for some SANITY!  (if that is possible….and as it looks today….NOT LIKELY!)

Iran Awaits!

Trump has made his speech to the UNGA….he pretty much threatened the world that is not siding with the US….North Korea took a hit…..terrorists took a hit….and then there was Iran.

He made it clear that he does not like the nuke deal that the US has with Iran……and he made sure to stress that he would be making a decision on this situation….and soon.

I wrote about the deal and how Iran was complying with the guidelines awhile back…..July 2017 to be exact.

Source: Dammit! Iran! – In Saner Thought

But in case that post is not enough for some…..there has been a reaffirmation that Iran is complying completely to the nuke deal……

Amid expectations that President Trump is going to decertify the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran, refusing the admit to Congress that Iran is complying, US Strategic Command chief Gen. John Hyten has affirmed that Iran is fully complying with the terms of the deal.

Gen. Hyten was speaking about the deal at an event for the Hudson Institute, saying Iran’s compliance was not a questionable fact, and insisting that US “concerns” regarding Iran are separate from the nuclear deal.

Hyten said the US and its allies had concerns about Iran developing and testing conventional ballistic missiles. Admitting that this is not a violation of the nuclear deal is significant, as Trump Administration officials have often linked the two issues.

(antiwar.com)

Late yesterday Trump announced that he had finally made his decision on Iran…..

A day after calling the Iran nuclear deal an “embarrassment” and “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions” in US history, President Trump says he’s made a decision on the future of the deal. But he wouldn’t say what that decision is, ABC News reports. “I have decided,” Trump told reporters Wednesday. “I’ll let you know what the decision is.” The Iran nuclear deal was done under President Obama and allows Iran to have limited nuclear development in exchange for easing of sanctions on the country. Gen. John Hyten, the top general in US Strategic Command, says Iran is upholding its part of the bargain. “The facts are that Iran is operating under the agreements the we signed up for,” the Hill quotes Hyten as saying Wednesday.

In his own speech to the UN on Wednesday, Hassan Rouhani called Trump’s Tuesday speech to the international body—in which the American president labeled Iran a “murderous regime”—”ignorant, absurd, and hateful,” the Washington Post reports. The Iranian president didn’t mention Trump by name, instead referring to him as a “rogue newcomer to the world of politics.” Rouhani said Iran is seeking peace and won’t be the first to leave the nuclear deal. He later told reporters Iran doesn’t expect the US to back out of the deal either, according to Reuters. “We don’t think Trump will walk out of the deal despite (his) rhetoric and propaganda,” Rouhani said.

It will be of interest to me to hear what his decision is……hopefully there is a real decision and not some ply to change the tone of the coverage….a misdirection.

Decertify?  Seriously?

Does he seriously believe that punishing Iran for complying to the treaty is somehow a good move?

Trump already has a major nuke problem with North Korea……does he propose making it compounded into two major problems?

Will He Break The Deal?

The he is Trump and the deal is the one that we have in place with Iran.

All the news is the Iran is holding good with the deal….but Trump and those hidden neocons are saying they want him to null and void the treaty and start the mash up to “bomb, bomb, Iran”…..

But now word is leaking out that Trump may be telling the neocons to “talk to the hand”…..

There seem to be those that want to extend sanctions….would someone remind them that sanctions will not solve a problem….only diplomacy can do that.

AS long as they are holding up their end of the deal….then I say do not screw with the deal.  But ass usual their will be BiBi there poking them with a stick trying to get a reaction.  Then there is Trump…..we have no idea what will be said or done from day to day…

The “Art Of The Deal”

There has not been much said these days in the news about Iran or the deal that the two signed…..we have heard all the stuff about China, North Korea……but believe it or not the deal that the US and Iran signed a year ago is still in effect.

AS a matter of fact the deal is working out well….at least according to the IAEA……

In their latest monthly statement on the P5+1 nuclear deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again confirmed that Iran is in total compliance with the deal, and that its low-enriched uranium stockpile is well within limits.

This is the statement they’ve issued every time since the deal was implemented, but comes at an increasingly important time, as President Trump has repeatedly claimed he considers Iran to be in violation is some non-specific way.

It also comes amid calls from US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley for the IAEA to inspect all of Iran’s conventional military facilities, to try to look for some violations. The IAEA, however, has insisted that there is no need for this.

The IAEA has affirmed that it has the right to demand access to military sites, but only in the case that there is reasonable suspicion of activity there. Since there is no such suspicion, there will be no inspections.

(antiwar.com)

With things going well…..yo would think that all is good and the deal is solid…..but you forget you live in a country commanded by Trump…..he is planning to kill this deal at any cost……

With Donald Trump threatening to invade Venezuela and start a nuclear war with North Korea, his stated intention to refuse certifying Iranian compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)  –  the nuclear deal between America, Iran, Europe, Russia, and China  –  has fallen from the headlines. However, the gravity of how he appears to be moving toward that end could spark a policy crisis. To hear his allies outside of government tell it, Trump’s plan to kill the Iran deal is the same one he uses to produce Trump suits and neckties: Outsourcing. Two key points highlight this scheme.

First, Trump’s failure to certify Iran’s compliance would give the Republican-led Congress ultimate decision-making powers over whether to stick to the nuclear deal. The reason for this is evident in the underlying statute  – the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA).  Under INARA, the President is required to provide a “compliance certification” to Congress every 90 days, which verifies Iranian adherence with its JCPOA commitments.

Source: Trump’s Plan To Kill The Iran Deal? Outsourcing | HuffPost

If Iran is living to the issues of the deal why would it need to die?  Better yet…..who will make the most money if the deal dies?

If successful then this situation will not bode well for the US.

Closing Thought–03Aug17

Don’t Let The Door Hit You In The Ass On The Way Out!

Yes, I know that I am a foreign policy geek!

Iran has come into the conversation from the Trump people……they have been threatened with violence even though it is obvious that they are complying with the word of the Nuke deal they signed with the US….

So I was truly surprised when McMasters fired a Iran hawk from the NSC…..

The White House has announced today that National Security Council member and top Trump adviser on Iran Derek Harvey has been fired “effective immediately.” Harvey was seen as extremely hawkish on Iran, and his firing comes amid major cabinet disagreements on Iran policy.

Harvey was said to be among the proponents for unilaterally withdrawing the US from the P%+1 nuclear deal, a position which ultimately lost out in recent weeks, as Secretary of State and Defense, Tillerson and Mattis, managed to convince Trump to take a more measured approach.

Some reports cited officials as denying that Harvey’s position on Iran was the reason for his dismissal, saying rather that he was viewed by other cabinet members as too close to Stephen Bannon. Harvey was initially hired for the council by Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who has also been sacked, and may not have been favored by H.R. McMaster.

(antiwar.com)

This is interesting…..was he fired because he was a hawk?  Is the NSC taking a more liberal tact on Iran?  Is the Trump White House softening its stand on Iran?

McMasters seems to be making a clean sweep in the NSC….he has fired yet another member…

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster has sacked yet another member of the National Security Council today, with the White House announcing that the senior director for intelligence programs Ezra Cohen-Watnick has been removed from his position, with the requisite praising of his past service.

McMaster has had problems with Cohen-Watnick for awhile, trying to fire him back in March amid mounting complaints from CIA officials who didn’t like working with him. Cohen-Watnick was close with Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner, and Trump overruled McMaster on that last firing attempt.

Questions…I have questions.

At least the amateurs are being shown the door….may be a more coherent national security policy can be found.  Can anyone now spell SANITY?

That is it for my day of posting….time to kick back and enjoy some quiet contemplation……

Have a good day my friends…..Don’t forget to check out my other blog…..Gulf South Free Press……https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/……chuq