History Repeats

I know there are those mental midgets that cannot see the need to keep up with our history….they try to justify their ignorance in some ham fisted philosophical BS to deny history….fortunately for the blogosphere I am NOT one of those  thumb suckers.

Someone once said that “if one ignores history then they are destined to repeat it”…that is a paraphrase so don’t get too excited.

Does anyone remember the bullsh*t that was told to the country to get our invasion and occupation of Iraq to become acceptable……they had WMDs (none were found)…they were in search of yellow cake uranium (was a lie manufactured by neocons)….and then there was the BS about the 9/11 attackers that was bullsh*t…Saddam never aided them in any way……

I bring up this because the war drums are starting to beat lead by the liar in chief at the UN, Amb. Haley……

 US UN envoy Nikki Haley slammed Iran Wednesday ahead of a UN Security Council meeting, Anadolu reports.

Haley criticized Tehran in a press release ahead of a session on UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ latest report on the implementation of sanctions against Iran mandated by Security Council Resolution 2231.

Guterres’ report “includes troubling, but not surprising, evidence that Iran has‎ and continues to violate UN Security Council resolutions by shipping weapons across the Middle East, blatantly defying travel bans and providing support to terrorist organizations destabilizing the region,” said the statement.

http://theantimedia.com/iran-violating-un-security-council-resolutions/

It appears that these toads cannot remember that the UN was where GW Bush started his lies of justification.  Trump minions will continue the lies until the shooting starts….just as GW’s boyz did for him…..damn Repubs have no imagination.

The Neocons and Bolton have started their choruses of regime change for Tehran….the same chorus they have used time and time again….but that seldom is a good thing.

These toads want a regime change in Tehran……again history is not on their side at all….we have aided several regimes change in Iran and none of it has gone well for us in the end.

Is it time for America to support regime change in Iran? A growing chorus inside the Beltway says “yes.” According to them, the arc of history bends toward freedom in Iran. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh argue in The Wall Street Journal that “[d]evising a strategy to collapse the clerical regime isn’t difficult” because “the essential theme in modern Iranian history is a populace seeking to emancipate itself from tyranny.” They see the growing economic chaos in Iran as birth-pangs of emancipation and call for America to act as midwife.

Many intellectuals before Gerecht and Takeyh have advanced theories of unstoppable historical change, driven by forces the wise can interpret and accelerate. In the nineteenth century, Hegel thought history was rushing toward human freedom. Marx thought it drove toward the collapse of capitalism and the rise of socialism. More recently, some thought the end of communism foreshadowed an inevitable global shift toward liberal democracy—an “end of history.” Dictatorships elsewhere, they thought, were living on borrowed time. One small push and the tide of history would do the rest.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/06/27/history_shows_that_regime_change_in_iran_is_not_the_answer_113563.html

America really needs to re-think all their approaches to diplomacy for they are just doing the same things over and over and over….a never ending cycle.

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Meanwhile Back In The Middle East

My area of some little amount of expertise has been ignored because of all the situations that have turned in the Koreas….look for Iran to come into focus soon….they have neutralized North Korea (for now) and the interventionists need a foe to focus on and the most logical one is Iran.

The deal that Trump pulled out of because it was made by Obama will now have his art of the deal to fall back on and get that better deal (or go to war)……

Iran is claiming to be the protector of the world’s Shia population……but is it?

Iran’s contemporary foreign policy approach is shaped by a worldview introduced by the 1979 Islamic revolution.

  • Iran’s hardline Shia regime rode a tidal wave of popular support into power during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Mass demonstrations in February 1979 led to the fall of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the former Iran leader known as the Shah, and the return of exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who claimed the title of Supreme Leader in December 1979 and served in that capacity until his death in June 1989.
  • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei succeeded Khomeini as Iran’s Supreme Leader in June 1989 and has since served as the country’s most powerful figure.
  • Other key figures in the Iranian regime include President Hassan Rouhani, who was reelected to a second four-year term in May after campaigning on the success of the Iran nuclear agreement. In addition, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif helped negotiate the Iran nuclear deal and Maj. Gen. Qasem Soulemani is the head of the elite Quds Force, which operates as the external wing of Iran’s ideologically driven, preeminent paramilitary force known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or the “guardians” of the revolution.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/irans-hegemonic-quest

Iran is more active in the Iraqi situation, the domestic side, it is backing alliances for the control of the country…..

Iraq may form a government that undermines U.S. interests, tries to eject the U.S. from the region, and supports Iran. Nationalist Iraqi Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has allied with Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of the coalition of Iranian-backed militias and their political wings. Sadr and Ameri lead the two winningest alliances in Iraq’s federal legislative elections and are nearing the 165-seat threshold necessary to form a government if Shi’a cleric Ammar al-Hakim (19 seats) and secularist Ayad Allawi (21 seats) follow through on their previously announced intention to ally with Sadr.

Sadr and Ameri will likely attempt to woo current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi or former Prime Minister and current Vice President Nouri al-Maliki to gain support of one of their coalitions, or alternatively seek to fragment both leaders’ respective coalitions to form a government. They may also seek to gain support from some or all Kurdish parties and Iran friendly Sunni parties in order to reach the government formation threshold. Both Sadr and Ameri may push for the full expulsion of U.S. forces from Iraq and will further the entrenchment of Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces in the Iraqi security apparatus.

Sadr’s militias fought the US tooth and nail for control…..and now he has it through the vote.

All this and Iran’s influence in OPEC will give the interventionists like John Bolton all the ammo they need to ramp up the rhetoric for war with Iran.

He, Trump, should have left the nuke deal in place but his jealousy of Obama would not allow that to occur…..I do not think his love for dictators will play well when dealing with Iran….but I could be mistaken….even dictators like to have their ego stroked.

 

A New Iranian Nuke Deal?

Yes there is a new list of demands from the Trump crazies that Iran MUST adhere to for the deal to go back into effect…and there are some doozeys……..

Now that the US has withdrawn from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, what would it take to strike a new deal? A lot, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revealed Monday in a speech outlining US demands, reports the Wall Street Journal, the AP, CNN, and Al Jazeera. Pompeo listed 12 things Iran must do, including:

  • Stop the enrichment of all uranium
  • Allow “unqualified access” to all nuclear sites
  • Withdraw all forces from Syria
  • Release all US citizens in custody
  • Stop its threats to destroy Israel
  • Halt its support for militant groups in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon
  • Declare all previous efforts to build a nuclear weapon

“Relief from sanctions will come only when we see tangible, demonstrated, and sustained shifts in Tehran’s policies,” said Pompeo in a speech at the Heritage Foundation. “We acknowledge Iran’s right to defend its people. But not its actions which jeopardize the world’s citizens.” The gist of coverage from the above sources suggests that the odds of Iran agreeing to the demands are virtually nonexistent. “There is such an enormous trust deficit between the US and Iran that Iranian leaders are likely to really shrug this off as yet more angry rhetoric coming from the Trump White House,” per Al Jazeera.

Tell me would the US accept these conditions……these are more to protect Israel than to end nuclear dreams.  Read Pompeo’s words it is that superiority thing…..”do as we say not as we do” sort of thing.

Personally I think his bluster will bite him in the butt….and I am not alone……

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speech on new sanctions on Iran lays out a wide range of Iranian behavior he would like to change, and specified harsh US financial sanctions as his instrument.

Pompeo, a Kansas oil man backed by the Koch brothers, is just a former congressman and a virulent Christian fundamentalist with white nationalist tendencies. He knows little about the world and is among the worst prepared secretaries of state in American history. He also knows nothing about the history of the region.

Unilateral US sanctions as a means of regime change or radically changing regime behavior have a strong record of failure, especially when applied to states with pricey primary commodities like petroleum.

https://www.juancole.com/2018/05/pompeo-iran-sanctions.html

These Trump people are the least capable of leading this country than ever before……

While the US makes demands that will not be met……the EU, China and Russia are moving to save the deal that is in place now……

While previous reports have indicated that there was little interest in talking about a new nuclear deal with Iran, the withdrawal of the US from the existing deal appears to have changed things. Now, Russia, China, and the European Union are to hold talks on a major revision of the deal later this week.

This new deal would keep Iran’s requirements the same as the existing deal, but would increase the incentives guaranteed by the other powers. This is an attempt to keep Iran complying with the deal as the US ratchets up sanctions.

While the US was the one pushing for a “new” deal in the first place, the other nations have kept the US completely sidelined in these new talks. This is unsurprising, as many see the US trying to undermine any such deals.

The new deal is said to offer Iran billions of dollars in financial aid to make up for the US dishonoring the pact and withdrawing its own sanctions relief. The deal also aims to pledge international cooperation to prevent US  sanctions being enforced internationally.

(antiwar.com)

This deal be saved one way or the other….but making unrealistic demands is not the “art of the deal”.

Operation Eagle Claw

I will wait a moment for all those too young to remember anything past the release of the first Apple phone to dash to Goggle and get the answers they search….

Times up!

Yep it was an attempt to rescue the hostages held by Iran….the Right loves to belittle Carter for this failed attempt making him out as some sort of wimp…..well nothing could be further from the truth…

The meeting began with Jimmy Carter’s announcement: “Gentlemen, I want you to know that I am seriously considering an attempt to rescue the hostages.”

Hamilton Jordan, the White House chief of staff, knew immediately that the president had made a decision. Planning and practice for a rescue mission had been going on in secret for five months, but it had always been regarded as the last resort, and ever since the November 4 embassy takeover, the White House had made every effort to avoid it. As the president launched into a list of detailed questions about how it was to be done, his aides knew he had mentally crossed a line.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/05/the-desert-one-debacle/304803/

If one would like a more detailed description of this operation then this is a good source…..

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/apjinternational/apj-s/2006/3tri06/kampseng.html

Jimmy Carter has been made a failed presidency by so many on the Right over the past decades…..but if he had won his re-election there would have been a good chance that a peace could have been negotiated between Israel and Palestine….but the election of Reagan crapped on his attempt at a peace.

Personally, the world would have been a better place if he won re-election.

Your history lesson is complete…..for today…there is so much more to come….

The Art Of The Deal

WE have seen or heard the the president will meet with Kim in Singapore in June to discuss the denuclearzation of the Korean Peninsula….but in light of his, Trump, decision to bow out of the Iran nuke deal what must North Korea be thinking?

Why bow out?  What could the real reason be for the decision……

Donald Trump doesn’t hate the Iran deal because it is a bad deal. He hates it because it is by all accounts a decent deal that has actually been working.

If you doubt this statement, ask yourself: What sensible argument has Trump ever offered to support his opposition to the deal? Sure, he has used his ever-expanding and descriptive vocabulary to call it some grandiose names, but he hasn’t actually explained what is wrong with it.

If the deal is so bad, why would he even want to bother pursuing a deal with North Korea? What deal could he possibly make that wouldn’t involve an arrangement similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? (We will turn to this point in a moment).

http://theantimedia.com/why-trump-abandoned-iran-nuclear-deal/

Sounds logical…..

A thought about the Iran Deal……

So, he did it. Trump announced on 8 May that he would reimpose sanctions against Iran. This is a breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed by President Obama with Iran, the UK, Germany, France, Russia, the EU and China in 2015. The other signatories may now scramble to do what they can to salvage the deal, but it is likely that Iran will simply turn its back on it.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2018/05/donald-trump-ending-iran-nuclear-deal-outbreak-organised-stupidity

That aside what are the chances that the nuke deal can be saved….not by the US but by the European nations.

A couple of thoughts……

Despite months of E3-US negotiations to avert an unnecessary crisis over the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump has declared a hard exit from the nuclear agreement. The decision demonstrates that the US has decided that confrontation with Iran is both necessary and inevitable, regardless of what European allies think. The US administration looks set to increase tensions with Tehran and promote an implosion of Iran’s economy in ways that significantly increase risks of greater military escalation in the Middle East. Moreover, in the coming weeks, United States looks set to lead an economic and political assault on European interests.

The E3 should now acknowledge that its negotiating tactic of accommodation and comprise with Trump has failed. If Europe is to have any influence forthcoming US policy on Iran, European governments should quickly shift tack, unifying behind a more assertive diplomatic strategy aimed at deterring the worst-case scenario of renewed Iranian nuclear program and more instability and violence in a region close to its borders.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_after_trump_iran_decision_time_for_europe_to_step_up

A group that I have worked with in the past also has an idea and they think that Europe can fill the void left by the US……

Why does it matter? U.S. withdrawal from the deal might kill it instantly; more uncertainty over the deal’s fate might suffocate it, as opinion in Tehran is turning against it. Iran could cancel the deal; target the U.S. or its Middle East-ern allies; or leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – all exacerbating the regional turmoil.

What should be done? Europe should develop a plan B to keep Iran party to the deal regardless of what the U.S. does on 12 May. This plan should include short- and medium-term measures to build trade with Iran, contingent upon verification of continued Iranian compliance with the deal and additional re-forms.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/185-how-europe-can-save-iran-nuclear-deal

I wish them luck in their endeavor……

But will the talks go forward at all?  Who will be the first to derail these talks?

President Trump is supposed to have a historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un next month—but now North Korea, angry over joint military exercises between the US and South Korea that started Friday, is threatening to cancel it. The Korean Central News Agency called the Max Thunder drills between the South Korean and US air forces that are taking place in South Korea over a period of two weeks “an intentional military provocation running counter to the positive political development on the Korean Peninsula,” per Yonhap News. The KCNA said high-level talks with South Korea planned for Wednesday were canceled, per the Hill, and that “the United States will also have to undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities.”

The USA just could not stop the muscle flexing…….

Aerial combat drills involving US and South Korean warplanes are riling North Korea, whose state media referred to the exercises as a “provocative military ruckus.” North Korea has responded by postponing some high-level talks with South Korea set for Wednesday in the DMZ.

North Korea’s statement also admonished the US to “undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit.” North Korea submitted a notice to South Korea on the Wednesday postponement, but the US State Department says they’ve received nothing suggesting a change in summit plans.

The Kim-Trump summit has been confirmed for June 12 in Singapore, and US officials say there is no sign that this sudden increase in tensions is in any way putting that in jeopardy. The talks are expected to focus chiefly on denuclearization.

(antiwar.com)

It would be a great day if this deal can be preserved….any deal that minimizes or eliminates nuclear weapons is a good deal….In my book.

Iran: Another Regime Change?

Meddling in Iran would be NOTHING new for the US it did so in the 1950’s and that move helped bring about the 1979 revolution that the US is still reeling from….why not try it again to see if we can get it right this time?  (sarcasm)

Now that the Iran nuke deal is history could there be other “deals” in the shadows waiting for the light of day?

But there may be no need for an attack on Iran….

Against the backdrop of cosmetic military strikes against the brutal Syrian regime, a close ally of Tehran, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman has been touring Western countries warning about the dangers of Iranian expansionism.

As dangerous as this may be, an even greater danger would be an escalation against Iran which could lead to war—a conflict that would be several times deadlier than our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While the president seems inclined to leave the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and could even be considering strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, as his new National Security Advisor John Bolton once advocated, such actions would be counter-productive to U.S. interests. If the goal is to push back on Iran’s attempt to expand its influence across the Middle East, all the United States has to do is let events unfold.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/05/08/theres_no_need_to_attack_a_declining_iran_113423.html

And yet the song continues for the US to do something militarily.

The war mongers like Tom Cotton, John Bolton and Pompeo have been slobbering over the chance to attack Iran for decades….let’s star with a look at Bolton and one of his predictions….

In July of last year neoconservative death cultist John Bolton, now the National Security Advisor of the United States, gave a speech at the Grand Gathering of Iranians for Free Iran in which he openly called for regime change in Tehran.

…….

Bolton, who is so stupid, crazy and evil that he remains one of the only high-profile individuals on this planet who still insists that the Iraq invasion was a great idea, spoke about the need to prevent the Iranian government from achieving “an arc of control” through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. He decried the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), claiming that Iran was still a nuclear threat under the existing agreement, and spoke glowingly of aggressive sanctions against Tehran. He concluded his speech with the following statement:

http://theantimedia.com/john-bolton-promised-regime-change-iran-before-2019/

Recently some papers about an Iran regime change came to light through a leak……

Just a few days after the former NYC mayor and latest member of President Trump’s unexpectedly let it slip that “we got a president who is tough, who does not listen to the people who are naysayers, and a president who is committed to regime change [in Iran]”, the Washington Free Beacon has obtained a three-page white paper being circulated among National Security Council officials with drafted plans to spark regime change in Iran, following the US exit from the Obama-era nuclear deal and the re-imposition of tough sanctions aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.

http://theantimedia.com/white-house-planning-regime-change-iran/

Well leg us say that the prediction did not materialize is it possible that a military coup could take place in Iran?

Since the beginning of the year, Iran has witnessed persistent protests. In January, massive demonstrations against the government spread to more than 80 cities in 29 provinces in which at least in 21 people were killed. In early February, dozens of women were arrested for taking off their head scarves and protesting against mandatory veiling in Tehran.

Later the same month, police clashed with members of the Gonabadi Sufi order, which led to five deaths, according to Gonabadi activists, and hundreds arrested. In late March, Arabs staged protests in Khuzestan province after a the national TV excluded their community from a programme about Iran’s ethnic diversity. Then in April, the security forces cracked down on water shortage protests in Isfahan province. Labour strikes in various cities across the country have also persisted.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/military-coup-iran-180424144510759.html

It appears that something is in the wind for Iran….but what?

Withdraw For Sloppy Seconds

Well I see that a moron always a moron….our Fearless Leader has withdrawn from the deal that the US and its allies have with Iran on the nuke program.

In a move he’s been signalling for some time, President Trump on Tuesday withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, reports NBC News. “This is a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never ever been made,” said the president in a televised news conference. “It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.” Trump, who accused Tehran of lying about its nuclear ambitions, also said the US would be reimposing the highest level of sanctions and warned other nations not to assist Iran, reports the AP. After his news conference, he signed a presidential memorandum to make the move official. The decision puts the US at odds with its European allies, which urged Trump to stick with the deal, and raises the possibility of tension with Russia and China, notes the New York Times.

“We cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” Trump said in his remarks, adding that the agreement was “defective at its core” and an “embarrassment to me as a citizen and all citizens of the United States.” Doing away with what was considered President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement fulfills an oft-stated campaign pledge of Trump’s, notes the Washington Post. Trump cited documents revealed last week by Israel suggesting that Iran had a nuclear weapons program in the 1990s, something it has repeatedly denied, and lied about that fact during negotiations for the 2015 accord. “At the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction,” Trump asserted.

This surprised no one.  He does what Israel tells him to do.  After all this bone head decision benefits NO one but Israel.

Can it be saved by others?

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/saving-iran-nuclear-deal-without-us

Europe should make a separate deal with Iran so if the dick tips in this country want a war with Iran then they will be warring on our allies as well…..I do not think this will stop the war mongers that want a war with Iran in the least.  Would this be possible?

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Monday that Iran has prepared for “all scenarios” and will remain “committed” to the nuclear deal no matter what the US does. He says if the US does withdraw, Iran will seek guarantees from non-American signatories. In particular he has sought assurances from the three EU member nations that signed, Britain, France, and Germany, that they will continue to abide by the deal.

Germany and France have both issued statements Monday confirming that they support the deal, and intend to stand by it whether or not the US remains involved. The German and French Foreign Ministers gave a joint news conference on the matter, with German FM Heiko Maas saying there wasn’t any “justifiable reason” to withdraw. The officials say they’re still trying to convince President Trump to respect the deal.

(antiwar.com)

Reactions……

President Trump formally withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord Tuesday—now what? Iranian President Hassan Rouhani gave a speech broadcast live on state TV within minutes of Trump’s announcement in which he warned the country could restart enriching uranium “without any limitations” within weeks, the AP reports, though he added that the Iranian foreign minister will visit the countries still in the deal—China, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK—to see if the pact can be salvaged. More on the fallout and potential ramifications of the US pulling out:

  • The Washington Post lays out “5 big consequences” of Trump’s decision while Rolling Stone looks at the “3 biggest consequences.” Both articles point out the possibility that Trump’s decision could alienate US allies.
  • What impact will the decision have on a potential US-North Korea nuclear deal? USA Today digs in.
  • One company that will be impacted by the US withdrawal? Boeing, which stands to lose $20 billion in deals with Iranian airlines. CNBC and CNNMoney look at how Boeing will handle that.
  • The Iran deal was then-President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement; Obama responded to Trump’s withdrawal Tuesday by calling the decision “misguided.” CNN has his full statement.
  • The AP has reactions from many more, including the Syrian government and congressional leaders.
  • Business Insider reports that even some of the deal’s biggest critics are uncertain Trump made the correct choice.
  • But over at Vox, one of those critics gives an in-depth explanation of why this was the right thing to do, and the “two positive directions” Trump appears to be heading in.
  • The New York Times offers an extensive look at the deal and Trump’s decision, which it calls a “risky bet” that the US can “break the regime” in Iran through economic sanctions.
  • For more on what happens next, Axios has a primer running down Iran’s options, Europe’s options, and the longer-term effects.

This idiot decision has our gas prices are already on the rise…….to bad will it get?…..

Oil prices just busted through the $70 mark as the world awaits President Trump’s decision on Iranian sanctions. The price of benchmark US crude rose 74 cents to $70.46 a barrel, the first time since 2014 the cost has exceeded $70, reports the AP. The development, which is expected to result in higher gas prices, comes as analysts await Trump’s May 12 decision on whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal he sees as a failure, reports Reuters. If the US withdraws from the deal, analysts expect Iranian oil exports to fall. Also hitting oil prices was a worsening economic crisis in Venezuela.

I cannot -wait to see just where this decision hurts the US the most.