Operation Eagle Claw

I will wait a moment for all those too young to remember anything past the release of the first Apple phone to dash to Goggle and get the answers they search….

Times up!

Yep it was an attempt to rescue the hostages held by Iran….the Right loves to belittle Carter for this failed attempt making him out as some sort of wimp…..well nothing could be further from the truth…

The meeting began with Jimmy Carter’s announcement: “Gentlemen, I want you to know that I am seriously considering an attempt to rescue the hostages.”

Hamilton Jordan, the White House chief of staff, knew immediately that the president had made a decision. Planning and practice for a rescue mission had been going on in secret for five months, but it had always been regarded as the last resort, and ever since the November 4 embassy takeover, the White House had made every effort to avoid it. As the president launched into a list of detailed questions about how it was to be done, his aides knew he had mentally crossed a line.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/05/the-desert-one-debacle/304803/

If one would like a more detailed description of this operation then this is a good source…..

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/apjinternational/apj-s/2006/3tri06/kampseng.html

Jimmy Carter has been made a failed presidency by so many on the Right over the past decades…..but if he had won his re-election there would have been a good chance that a peace could have been negotiated between Israel and Palestine….but the election of Reagan crapped on his attempt at a peace.

Personally, the world would have been a better place if he won re-election.

Your history lesson is complete…..for today…there is so much more to come….

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The Art Of The Deal

WE have seen or heard the the president will meet with Kim in Singapore in June to discuss the denuclearzation of the Korean Peninsula….but in light of his, Trump, decision to bow out of the Iran nuke deal what must North Korea be thinking?

Why bow out?  What could the real reason be for the decision……

Donald Trump doesn’t hate the Iran deal because it is a bad deal. He hates it because it is by all accounts a decent deal that has actually been working.

If you doubt this statement, ask yourself: What sensible argument has Trump ever offered to support his opposition to the deal? Sure, he has used his ever-expanding and descriptive vocabulary to call it some grandiose names, but he hasn’t actually explained what is wrong with it.

If the deal is so bad, why would he even want to bother pursuing a deal with North Korea? What deal could he possibly make that wouldn’t involve an arrangement similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)? (We will turn to this point in a moment).

http://theantimedia.com/why-trump-abandoned-iran-nuclear-deal/

Sounds logical…..

A thought about the Iran Deal……

So, he did it. Trump announced on 8 May that he would reimpose sanctions against Iran. This is a breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed by President Obama with Iran, the UK, Germany, France, Russia, the EU and China in 2015. The other signatories may now scramble to do what they can to salvage the deal, but it is likely that Iran will simply turn its back on it.

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2018/05/donald-trump-ending-iran-nuclear-deal-outbreak-organised-stupidity

That aside what are the chances that the nuke deal can be saved….not by the US but by the European nations.

A couple of thoughts……

Despite months of E3-US negotiations to avert an unnecessary crisis over the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump has declared a hard exit from the nuclear agreement. The decision demonstrates that the US has decided that confrontation with Iran is both necessary and inevitable, regardless of what European allies think. The US administration looks set to increase tensions with Tehran and promote an implosion of Iran’s economy in ways that significantly increase risks of greater military escalation in the Middle East. Moreover, in the coming weeks, United States looks set to lead an economic and political assault on European interests.

The E3 should now acknowledge that its negotiating tactic of accommodation and comprise with Trump has failed. If Europe is to have any influence forthcoming US policy on Iran, European governments should quickly shift tack, unifying behind a more assertive diplomatic strategy aimed at deterring the worst-case scenario of renewed Iranian nuclear program and more instability and violence in a region close to its borders.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_after_trump_iran_decision_time_for_europe_to_step_up

A group that I have worked with in the past also has an idea and they think that Europe can fill the void left by the US……

Why does it matter? U.S. withdrawal from the deal might kill it instantly; more uncertainty over the deal’s fate might suffocate it, as opinion in Tehran is turning against it. Iran could cancel the deal; target the U.S. or its Middle East-ern allies; or leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – all exacerbating the regional turmoil.

What should be done? Europe should develop a plan B to keep Iran party to the deal regardless of what the U.S. does on 12 May. This plan should include short- and medium-term measures to build trade with Iran, contingent upon verification of continued Iranian compliance with the deal and additional re-forms.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/185-how-europe-can-save-iran-nuclear-deal

I wish them luck in their endeavor……

But will the talks go forward at all?  Who will be the first to derail these talks?

President Trump is supposed to have a historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un next month—but now North Korea, angry over joint military exercises between the US and South Korea that started Friday, is threatening to cancel it. The Korean Central News Agency called the Max Thunder drills between the South Korean and US air forces that are taking place in South Korea over a period of two weeks “an intentional military provocation running counter to the positive political development on the Korean Peninsula,” per Yonhap News. The KCNA said high-level talks with South Korea planned for Wednesday were canceled, per the Hill, and that “the United States will also have to undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities.”

The USA just could not stop the muscle flexing…….

Aerial combat drills involving US and South Korean warplanes are riling North Korea, whose state media referred to the exercises as a “provocative military ruckus.” North Korea has responded by postponing some high-level talks with South Korea set for Wednesday in the DMZ.

North Korea’s statement also admonished the US to “undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-US summit.” North Korea submitted a notice to South Korea on the Wednesday postponement, but the US State Department says they’ve received nothing suggesting a change in summit plans.

The Kim-Trump summit has been confirmed for June 12 in Singapore, and US officials say there is no sign that this sudden increase in tensions is in any way putting that in jeopardy. The talks are expected to focus chiefly on denuclearization.

(antiwar.com)

It would be a great day if this deal can be preserved….any deal that minimizes or eliminates nuclear weapons is a good deal….In my book.

Iran: Another Regime Change?

Meddling in Iran would be NOTHING new for the US it did so in the 1950’s and that move helped bring about the 1979 revolution that the US is still reeling from….why not try it again to see if we can get it right this time?  (sarcasm)

Now that the Iran nuke deal is history could there be other “deals” in the shadows waiting for the light of day?

But there may be no need for an attack on Iran….

Against the backdrop of cosmetic military strikes against the brutal Syrian regime, a close ally of Tehran, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman has been touring Western countries warning about the dangers of Iranian expansionism.

As dangerous as this may be, an even greater danger would be an escalation against Iran which could lead to war—a conflict that would be several times deadlier than our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While the president seems inclined to leave the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and could even be considering strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, as his new National Security Advisor John Bolton once advocated, such actions would be counter-productive to U.S. interests. If the goal is to push back on Iran’s attempt to expand its influence across the Middle East, all the United States has to do is let events unfold.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/05/08/theres_no_need_to_attack_a_declining_iran_113423.html

And yet the song continues for the US to do something militarily.

The war mongers like Tom Cotton, John Bolton and Pompeo have been slobbering over the chance to attack Iran for decades….let’s star with a look at Bolton and one of his predictions….

In July of last year neoconservative death cultist John Bolton, now the National Security Advisor of the United States, gave a speech at the Grand Gathering of Iranians for Free Iran in which he openly called for regime change in Tehran.

…….

Bolton, who is so stupid, crazy and evil that he remains one of the only high-profile individuals on this planet who still insists that the Iraq invasion was a great idea, spoke about the need to prevent the Iranian government from achieving “an arc of control” through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. He decried the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), claiming that Iran was still a nuclear threat under the existing agreement, and spoke glowingly of aggressive sanctions against Tehran. He concluded his speech with the following statement:

http://theantimedia.com/john-bolton-promised-regime-change-iran-before-2019/

Recently some papers about an Iran regime change came to light through a leak……

Just a few days after the former NYC mayor and latest member of President Trump’s unexpectedly let it slip that “we got a president who is tough, who does not listen to the people who are naysayers, and a president who is committed to regime change [in Iran]”, the Washington Free Beacon has obtained a three-page white paper being circulated among National Security Council officials with drafted plans to spark regime change in Iran, following the US exit from the Obama-era nuclear deal and the re-imposition of tough sanctions aimed at toppling the Iranian regime.

http://theantimedia.com/white-house-planning-regime-change-iran/

Well leg us say that the prediction did not materialize is it possible that a military coup could take place in Iran?

Since the beginning of the year, Iran has witnessed persistent protests. In January, massive demonstrations against the government spread to more than 80 cities in 29 provinces in which at least in 21 people were killed. In early February, dozens of women were arrested for taking off their head scarves and protesting against mandatory veiling in Tehran.

Later the same month, police clashed with members of the Gonabadi Sufi order, which led to five deaths, according to Gonabadi activists, and hundreds arrested. In late March, Arabs staged protests in Khuzestan province after a the national TV excluded their community from a programme about Iran’s ethnic diversity. Then in April, the security forces cracked down on water shortage protests in Isfahan province. Labour strikes in various cities across the country have also persisted.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/military-coup-iran-180424144510759.html

It appears that something is in the wind for Iran….but what?

Withdraw For Sloppy Seconds

Well I see that a moron always a moron….our Fearless Leader has withdrawn from the deal that the US and its allies have with Iran on the nuke program.

In a move he’s been signalling for some time, President Trump on Tuesday withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, reports NBC News. “This is a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never ever been made,” said the president in a televised news conference. “It didn’t bring calm, it didn’t bring peace, and it never will.” Trump, who accused Tehran of lying about its nuclear ambitions, also said the US would be reimposing the highest level of sanctions and warned other nations not to assist Iran, reports the AP. After his news conference, he signed a presidential memorandum to make the move official. The decision puts the US at odds with its European allies, which urged Trump to stick with the deal, and raises the possibility of tension with Russia and China, notes the New York Times.

“We cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” Trump said in his remarks, adding that the agreement was “defective at its core” and an “embarrassment to me as a citizen and all citizens of the United States.” Doing away with what was considered President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement fulfills an oft-stated campaign pledge of Trump’s, notes the Washington Post. Trump cited documents revealed last week by Israel suggesting that Iran had a nuclear weapons program in the 1990s, something it has repeatedly denied, and lied about that fact during negotiations for the 2015 accord. “At the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction,” Trump asserted.

This surprised no one.  He does what Israel tells him to do.  After all this bone head decision benefits NO one but Israel.

Can it be saved by others?

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/saving-iran-nuclear-deal-without-us

Europe should make a separate deal with Iran so if the dick tips in this country want a war with Iran then they will be warring on our allies as well…..I do not think this will stop the war mongers that want a war with Iran in the least.  Would this be possible?

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Monday that Iran has prepared for “all scenarios” and will remain “committed” to the nuclear deal no matter what the US does. He says if the US does withdraw, Iran will seek guarantees from non-American signatories. In particular he has sought assurances from the three EU member nations that signed, Britain, France, and Germany, that they will continue to abide by the deal.

Germany and France have both issued statements Monday confirming that they support the deal, and intend to stand by it whether or not the US remains involved. The German and French Foreign Ministers gave a joint news conference on the matter, with German FM Heiko Maas saying there wasn’t any “justifiable reason” to withdraw. The officials say they’re still trying to convince President Trump to respect the deal.

(antiwar.com)

Reactions……

President Trump formally withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord Tuesday—now what? Iranian President Hassan Rouhani gave a speech broadcast live on state TV within minutes of Trump’s announcement in which he warned the country could restart enriching uranium “without any limitations” within weeks, the AP reports, though he added that the Iranian foreign minister will visit the countries still in the deal—China, France, Germany, Russia, and the UK—to see if the pact can be salvaged. More on the fallout and potential ramifications of the US pulling out:

  • The Washington Post lays out “5 big consequences” of Trump’s decision while Rolling Stone looks at the “3 biggest consequences.” Both articles point out the possibility that Trump’s decision could alienate US allies.
  • What impact will the decision have on a potential US-North Korea nuclear deal? USA Today digs in.
  • One company that will be impacted by the US withdrawal? Boeing, which stands to lose $20 billion in deals with Iranian airlines. CNBC and CNNMoney look at how Boeing will handle that.
  • The Iran deal was then-President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement; Obama responded to Trump’s withdrawal Tuesday by calling the decision “misguided.” CNN has his full statement.
  • The AP has reactions from many more, including the Syrian government and congressional leaders.
  • Business Insider reports that even some of the deal’s biggest critics are uncertain Trump made the correct choice.
  • But over at Vox, one of those critics gives an in-depth explanation of why this was the right thing to do, and the “two positive directions” Trump appears to be heading in.
  • The New York Times offers an extensive look at the deal and Trump’s decision, which it calls a “risky bet” that the US can “break the regime” in Iran through economic sanctions.
  • For more on what happens next, Axios has a primer running down Iran’s options, Europe’s options, and the longer-term effects.

This idiot decision has our gas prices are already on the rise…….to bad will it get?…..

Oil prices just busted through the $70 mark as the world awaits President Trump’s decision on Iranian sanctions. The price of benchmark US crude rose 74 cents to $70.46 a barrel, the first time since 2014 the cost has exceeded $70, reports the AP. The development, which is expected to result in higher gas prices, comes as analysts await Trump’s May 12 decision on whether to reimpose sanctions on Iran over the 2015 nuclear deal he sees as a failure, reports Reuters. If the US withdraws from the deal, analysts expect Iranian oil exports to fall. Also hitting oil prices was a worsening economic crisis in Venezuela.

I cannot -wait to see just where this decision hurts the US the most.

BiBi: Believe It Or Not

The Neocon world has awaited for the revelations that BiBi has promised about Iran and its nuke program…..and we finally have his assessment….and we foreign policy wonks were not disappointed….we got his time tried diatribe about Iran….

Benjamin Netanyahu went on Israeli TV Monday night and issued a blunt accusation against the nation he sees as an arch-nemesis: “Iran lied,” he declared. “Big time.” Netanyahu said Israel had obtained a “half ton” of documents proving that Iran had been trying to develop nuclear weapons, something it has long denied, reports the AP. Netanyahu further asserted that Iran sought to cover up the weapons program before signing a 2015 deal with the international community. “Iran is brazenly lying when it said it never had a nuclear weapons program,” said the Israeli prime minister. His office billed it as a bombshell development, though Tom DiChristopher of CNBC writes that Netanyahu’s presentation “largely rehashed what the world long ago accepted: That Iran sought to develop nuclear weapons.”

Still, the timing is significant, given that President Trump must decide by May 12 whether to continue to go along with the 2015 deal or reimpose sanctions, reports the Guardian. The newspaper notes that Netanyahu spoke to Trump by phone over the weekend and met in person with new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday. “We’ve shared this material with the United States and the United States can vouch for its authenticity,” Netanyahu said on Monday. Iran did not immediately respond to the claims, but its foreign minister tweeted before the presentation that Netanyahu is “the boy who can’t stop crying wolf” in regard to accusations about Iran. Netanyahu said Israel had obtained 55,000 documents and 183 CDs from the “nuclear archives” of Iran.

This should sit well with the likes of Trump, Bolton and Pompeo…..but is his accusations true?

The same re-packaged lies for the last 20 years.

Well let’s see what Mossad and the CIA have to say about it……

Israel’s intelligence services agree with American intelligence assessments that there is not enough proof to determine whether Iran is building a nuclear bomb, according to a report published Sunday in the New York Times.

The report further quoted one former senior American intelligence official who states that the Mossad “does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,” adding that there is “not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”

According to the New York Times, the extent of the evidence the spy agencies have collected is unclear since most of their findings are classified. However, intelligence officials say they have been throwing everything they have at the Iranian program

(Haaretz)

Intel comes from two sources……Kurds in Iraq that go between the two countries and the M.E.K. a groupm of Iranian dissidents…..

Tired old pics as proof….like I said BiBi does not disappoint when Iran is involved.

That aside the question is….can Pres. Trump abandon this agreement?

To answer this I give you an article on this point…..

President Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced his belief that the Iran nuclear deal is flawed and if it is not amended to cure those flaws, the United States should abandon it. On January 12th of this year, he informed the American public that his administration is working with “key European allies” to reach a “new supplemental agreement that would impose new multilateral sanctions if Iran develops or tests long-range missiles, thwarts inspections, or makes progress toward a nuclear weapon.”

As a political document, there is no legal prohibition on the president from withdrawing from the plan of action. The president has given his negotiators until May 12th to reach that agreement; the date upon which he is next required under Section 1245(d) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, codified at 22 U.S.C. § 8513a, to decide whether to renew the waiver of certain sanctions targeting the financial sector of Iran.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/can-trump-legally-withdraw-iran-deal

I hope that helped in the understanding……

This is more about an accord signed by Obama than an actual threat…..if the same had occurred with North Korea then that situation would be on a different tact altogether.

What Of Iran?

NK has been making news so the other side of the world is getting little press these days.  Iran is making news just not enough for the MSM to pay attention at least for right now….they will shortly…..

First we need to look at Iran’s priorities……

Iran is ascendant in the Middle East, spreading its influence in a contiguous geographic arc from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut. Its rise, which began with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and accelerated when civil wars erupted in Syria and Yemen, has generated a perception that Iran aspires to be the region’s hegemonic power. To the U.S. and its allies – Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – such an ambition constitutes an intolerable threat. Iran, however, sees itself as breaking out of prolonged isolation and stifling sanctions – precipitated by the 1979 Islamic Revolution – that it perceives as historic injustice. It sees a region dominated by powers with superior military capabilities. After the 2011 Arab uprisings, Iran applied military force to protect a longstanding ally, the Syrian regime, viewing its loss as a possible prelude to its own encirclement. It is in part the gap in perceptions that has locked Iran and its rivals in an escalatory spiral of proxy fights that is destroying the region. A first step toward closing the gap is to better understand how Iran debates and fashions its regional policy.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/184-irans-priorities-turbulent-middle-east

Then there is the nuke deal that is in place that Trump and the war mongers do not like…..the chances are that this deal will possibly be terminated….if so what then?

With just weeks remaining before President Trump’s May 12 ultimatum to change the Iran nuclear deal, there is little sign major change is coming. This is raising concerns that the president may attempt to blow up the deal outright, as he has long threatened.

Iran is warning against such a move, saying that they are prepared to ‘vigorously‘ resume their enrichment of uranium if the pact collapses. Iran FM Javad Zarif noted that Iran was never seeking a nuclear bomb, but that enrichment to lower levels would probably be stepped up in the fact of the deal falling apart.

That’s unsurprising. Dramatic curbs to enrichment were a big concession made by Iran under the deal, along with giving the IAEA an unprecedented level of access to their nuclear sites. Without the deal, Iran would likely feel obliged to reverse those concessions.

(antiwar.com)

This is very worrying…..we could get a deal with NK and then have another nuke problem on our hands.

4 weeks and this could explode on more than one front.

The Iranian Nuke Deal Update

In this case it will be because of the Iranian nuke deal that the war mongers want the US to bow out.  His so-called national security team is manned with war mongers and as the deal comes up for renewal that prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough is not happening…..

The new SecState has gone on record saying that the US is “unlikely to stay in the deal”……

Speaking to reporters during his first overseas trip since confirmation, new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that he believes it is very “unlikely” that President Trump will keep the United States in the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran past May 12.

Trump’s opposition to the nuclear deal centers on three issues. He wants limits on Iran’s civilian nuclear program to not sunset in the future. He also wants the IAEA to access non-nuclear military sites, which the IAEA has not sought to access at all. Finally, he wants the nuclear deal to “address Iran’s other activities,” like having conventional missiles.

(antiwar.com)

I have several opinions on what to do about the deal from a couple think tanks (not that I agree….just FYI)……

In the coming weeks, the Trump Administration will decide whether the United States will remain in or leave the Iran nuclear agreement. The agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is undoubtedly deeply flawed. Its sunset clause will permit Iran to enrich weapons-grade uranium in about a decade. It fails to address the ballistic missile issue, there are no “anytime, anywhere” inspections as the Obama Administration originally promised, and it has provided Tehran with billions of dollars in unfrozen assets and sanctions relief, which has helped finance its destabilizing activities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere. There is nothing wrong with threatening to walk away from such a deeply flawed agreement. In fact, a credible threat to withdraw is what is needed to improve it. However, leaving the agreement would be not only illogical but potentially dangerous.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/04/27/the_iran_deal_if_you_cant_fix_it_dont_nix_it_113383.html

Then there is the US SecDef who seems the believe that the US should stay in the nuke deal…..

Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary James Mattis praised the P5+1 nuclear deal. These comments come just weeks ahead of President Trump’s May 12 ultimatum to withdraw from the deal if changes aren’t agreed to.

Mattis told the senators that the verification system is “robust,” and that gives the IAEA “intrusive ability” to check on Iran’s compliance. He in particularly praised what he believes was a deal “written almost with an assumption that Iran would try to cheat.”

Trump and his cabinet are believed to differ on the merits of the P5+1 deal, with Trump opposing the deal and most believing it is too valuable to lose. Mattis’ comments clearly put him in the pro-deal camp, as his praise for the verification in the deal comes as oversight remains one of Trump’s main complaints. Trump has demanded the IAEA be given access to non-nuclear sites that the IAEA itself insists it doesn’t want to visit at all.

(antiwar.com)

So far I have two takeaways……one–there is no consensus on the deal….the deal may hang on the last voice Trump hears before the deadline and two–if Mattis does not concur with Trump he may be looking at the door soon.

One last thought……

The discussions at the White House with French president Emmanuel Macron about devising, in Macron’s words, a “new deal with Iran” may be an instance of different governments using similar words to mean very different things. In that regard, it may be akin to how “denuclearization” means different things in the Korean context depending on which government uses the term. Although Macron can be criticized for some aspects of how he has handled the task he has taken on, especially with respect to the effect of his moves on Iranian perceptions and intentions, give him credit for taking on the task at all. To try to preserve an agreement that serves the interests of France, the United States, and the cause of nuclear nonproliferation, Macron has had to propitiate a bully—one who in front of the press in the Oval Office even added the bullying touch of flicking alleged dandruff off Macron’s suit coat.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/new-deals-old-deals-non-deals-iran-25581

This policy will be a policy to watch…..chest thumping aside….the theatrics will be amazing.