The election is sliding into the national thought process (finally)……we are bombarded daily with a wealth of polling and each one has little to do with the eventual outcome…..but it helps drive the conversation by the media……but not the people that will have to make a choice.
This time around the cultural wars are playing very small in the campaigns….nationalism is on the rise……so far the only divide that is making sense (at least to me) is the education of the voters……
It has been widely reported that Donald Trump’s strong appeal to elements of the white working class (especially males) endangers Republican support among women, minorities and the more-educated in the current presidential campaign. What has had less attention is that these shifts, if they persist after this election, endanger long-term Republican control of Congress and state legislatures.
The less-educated tend to vote less often: they are less reliable. That’s one of the most fundamental realities of voting behavior, not only in the United States, but across the world wherever free elections are held. Now, it may be that enthusiasm for Trump will elevate turnout among this sector in this election; we will know more about that in the weeks after November 8.
This brings us to millennials (18-34)…….this demographic is not as predictable as the media would have us believe……
Polls indicate that Donald Trump is going to be crushed by Hillary Clinton this November when it comes to millennials, who could make up the nation’s largest voting bloc. But in reality, the GOP nominee may do much better with young voters than we have been led to believe.
A real-time Electoral College tracking map published by Mic shows Clinton dominating among millennials, with Trump ahead in only five states. Given that there are 69 millennials who are currently eligible to vote, this forecast appears devastating for the GOP.
But there is one critical factor that most of the polls and tracking maps are not taking into account: voter turnout.
In the 2008 and 2012 elections, President Obama mobilized minorities, women, and young people. There was even a record turnout of young voters in 2008, when a large majority of them voted for the then-Illinois senator.
Personally, I think this election will be closer than most anticipate……Trump will most likely lose….but he will fare better than the polls that the media loves to quote….keep in mind how wrong these polls were in 2012…..