What Will Russia Do?

We are always hearing the speculation on the precise policies of the Russians…..but are those speculations just mere hearsay or a5re they based in fact?

This intel is what we call “Open Source Intel”…….

This is the report to Congress on Russia’s military doctrine and strategy…..given to Congress on 20 August 2020…..

Russia’s official security doctrines are detailed in its 2014 Military Doctrine and 2015 National Security Strategy. Other key strategy documents include the 2016 Foreign Policy Concept, 2017 Naval Strategy, and 2020 Principles of Nuclear Deterrence Strategy. These documents offer insight into how Russian leaders perceive threats and how Russian military and security policymakers envision the future of conflict. In addition, the Military Doctrine and the National Security Strategy identify the importance of information and the danger of internal, as well as external, threats.

The 2014 Military Doctrine divides the perceived nature of threats to Russia into two categories: military risks and military threats. Military risks are a lesser designation, defined as situations that could “lead to a military threat under certain conditions.” A military threat is “characterized by a real possibility of an outbreak of a military conflict.” Once fighting breaks out, Russian military theory and doctrine identify a typology of conflicts relating to the extent and type of conflict, gradually increasing in intensity: armed conflict, local war, regional war, large-scale war, and global (nuclear) war. These levels of conflict are important for understanding how the Russian military envisions the scale, nature, actors, and levels of escalation in war.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev stated in July 2019 that Russia would update its National Security Strategy in 2020. Although a new version has not yet appeared, most analysts expect its publication in the near future.

Report to Congress on Russian Military Doctrine and Strategy

 

Russia Returns To Afghanistan

Back in the 80s the old USSR had this war going on in Afghanistan…..and since it was the Cold War the US would send cash and weapons to the “rebels” that were fighting the Soviets.

Does any of this sound familiar?

In case you are too young to remember anything past the first Iphone….then this should help…..

Or read a history…….https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/

In this conflict the US helped create the Taleban and the Northern Alliance to fight the Soviets….and today we, the US, are fighting the very same group we armed and paid in the past…..

I bring all this up because the Neocons are bitching about the Russians sending aid to the Taleban…..

Hardly a week seems to pass without some new crisis in Russian-American relations. The most recent was the revelation that U.S. President Donald Trump had ignored intelligence about bounties supposedly paid by Russian operatives to the Taliban in exchange for killing American soldiers. The veracity of this particular intelligence is questionable, in my view, but there is plausible evidence that Russia has been providing arms to the Taliban as Moscow seeks to play a more active role in Afghanistan. What to make of this? Some commentators in the U.S., including intelligence analysts and military commanders, see Russia’s policy as primarily aimed at pushing the U.S. out of what Moscow considers its neighborhood. Commenting on the most recent allegations, U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff suggested that Russia should be “pushed out of the community of nations.” For Schiff, Russia’s Afghanistan policy is further evidence of a consistent anti-American agenda. This kind of zero-sum thinking says more about the American foreign policy consensus regarding Russia than it does about Russia’s view of the region or of relations with Washington. Russia’s engagement with the Taliban is not, primarily, about punishing the U.S. or getting revenge for Washington’s support to the mujahedeen fighting Soviet troops in the 1980s. Rather, Moscow is pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at securing stability and security in Central Asia. 

https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russian-moves-afghanistan-are-about-regional-stability-not-revenge-us

This is all so silly….the Neocons are all up in arms because Russia is aiding the Taleban……think about that for just a moment……

This illustrates the hypocrisy of American foreign policy….the arrogance….”we can do it but no one else can”

I wish that we could find a new foreign policy….but sadly little will change with the next election.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Those Russians And Windows Are Back!

I recently wrote a post about the people that are walking our windows in Russia. A couple of doctors and a whistle blower police major…well it does not stop with those few…..but read about these tragic “accidents”…..https://lobotero.com/2020/07/18/beware-of-russian-windows/

A Russian Olympic figure skater has “fallen” out a window…..

Olympic figure skater Ekaterina Alexandrovskaya has died aged 20 after reportedly falling out of a window.

Russian-born Alexandrovskaya represented Australia at the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang.

The cause of the death has yet to be confirmed but reports claim she “died on the spot” following the incident in Moscow.

Alexandrovskaya retired from the sport earlier this year due to injury.

Tributes have poured in for the athlete, a two-time Australian National Champion pair-skating with partner Harley Windsor.

Windsor, 23, posted a heartbreaking message on social media.

(mirror.co.uk)

I have got to ask….what is it about Russians and windows?

I have asked and I ask gain….what is it about Russians and windows?

Summer on the Gulf Coast…it has been raining for 3 days…..and more to come……Gonzalo is waiting to strike.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Beware Of Russian Windows

As the pandemic rages I wrote about an interesting development in Russia among Russian pandemic doctors.

It seems they are falling out windows….at least three so far….

Three Russian doctors working to treat coronavirus patients have mysteriously fallen out of windows in recent weeks, underscoring the country’s struggling health care system — and leading to suspicions of foul play.

On April 24, Natalya Lebedeva, the chief of emergency medical services at a training base for Russian astronauts, fell out of a window at the hospital where she was being treated for a Covid-19 infection and died.

Yelena Nepomnyashchaya, the top doctor at a hospital in Siberia, fell out of a window during a conference call at her hospital and died on May 1 after a week in intensive care.

The next day, ambulance doctor Alexander Shulepov fell from a second-floor window at the hospital where he worked and had been receiving treatment for Covid-19. He remains in serious condition with a fractured skull.

Russian authorities are investigating all three incidents, and there is no official indication yet of what happened to the physicians. The circumstances around their falls, though, are more than a little suspicious.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/6/21248553/coronavirus-russia-doctors-windows-death

Fascinating stories……makes me suspicious of the excuses for the deaths…..

Then I read about a whistle blower in Russia that walk out a window….another window story?

A Russian police major plunged to her death not long after testifying against her old boss in a criminal-extortion case, the Moscow Times reports. The body of Yekaterina Mishkina, 37, was caught on security cameras lying near an apartment building in the city of Khabarovsk (Russia.liveaumap.com has a screen capture), where she apparently fell from the fifth floor. Security cameras are said to show her trying to reach the roof, giving up, and going back down a few flights. Unconfirmed reports say Mishkina had testified against an ex-boss who allegedly extorted money from subordinates. Seems the extortion case was opened after the former boss had gone into retirement.

Regional police in Khabarovsk, roughly 5,000 miles east of Moscow, have begun investigating Mishkina’s fall—though a spokeswoman said the lead investigator is “on yet another vacation.” A Russian news outlet is quoting an anonymous source close to the probe who said officials uncovered a note in Mishkina’s purse with a to-do list she’d only partly completed: “This indicates that what happened wasn’t spontaneous,” the source said. Mishkina was a divorcee with a 14-year-old daughter. Her death comes after at least three Russian health-care workers recently fell from windows amid the coronavirus outbreak, as have two young journalists.

What is it about Russian windows?

Any thoughts?

I Read, I Write, you Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Bounty Of A Different Color

Surely most people have heard about the bounties that were put on our soldiers according to the media and some Neocons…..I originally asked the question….why now?

Don’t take my word…here is the post that I asked that question…..https://lobotero.com/2020/07/02/mutiny-of-the-bounties/

The day after my post someone else had the same idea that I had……https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/03/roaming-charges-mutiny-of-the-bounties/

All that history aside…..the media has done an excellent job selling the idea of the bounties to the American people……

Late last month, reports began emerging claiming that Russia had been paying substantial bounties to the Taliban to kill US troops in Afghanistan. A new poll shows that 60% of Americans view that allegation as “believable.”

Claims Russia did something bad are usually easy to sell, and a claim repeated enough usually gets believed by many. Still, the evidence is not at all on the side of this particular allegation, which the Pentagon tried, and failed, to sell to the US intelligence community.

Centcom head Gen. Frank McKenzie says that when he heard the report it was “worrisome,” but that he’s still not clear anyone was killed on the basis of this. Moreover, he says the US did not change its Afghanistan operations.

It seems clear at this point it was never true, but the New York Times ran with the story, and ran hard, and the poll points to Americans buying the story.

The poll shows that they view Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “threat,” and support a new round of US sanctions against Russia. Alarmingly, 9% even supported attacking Russia outright.

This is undercut by the strong evidence that this plot isn’t true, and never was. The danger is, the US could escalate hostilities and the majority of the public is fine with it.

(antiwar.com)

After the troop withdrawal was announced no sooner than the Pentagon started using its contacts in the media to ax the decision and to keep the troops in Afghanistan…..

The New York Times dropped another Russiagate bombshell on June 26 with a sensational front-page story headlined, “Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill U.S. Troops, Intelligence Says.” A predictable media and political frenzy followed, reviving the anti-Russian hysteria that has excited the Beltway establishment for the past four years.

But a closer look at the reporting by the Times and other mainstream outlets vying to confirm its coverage reveals another scandal not unlike Russiagate itself: the core elements of the story appear to have been fabricated by Afghan government intelligence to derail a potential US troop withdrawal from the country. And they were leaked to the Times and other outlets by US national security state officials who shared an agenda with their Afghan allies.

In the days following the story’s publication, the maneuvers of the Afghan regime and US national security bureaucracy encountered an unexpected political obstacle: US intelligence agencies began offering a series of low confidence assessments in the Afghan government’s self-interested intelligence claims, judging them to be highly suspect at best, and altogether bogus at worst.

How the Pentagon Failed to Sell Afghan Government’s Bunk ‘Bountygate’ Story to US Intelligence Agencies

The longer the story is out there…..the more holes are found in the reports…..even the Pentagon is back peddling…..

Continuing the allegation of Russian bounty payments to Taliban to kill US troops, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley both told the House Armed Services Committee that they’ve seen no corroboration of the claim, nor do they believe anyone was actually killed on the basis of it.

This allegation emerged last month in the New York Times and has been oft-repeated, despite a lack of evidence. Earlier this week, a poll showed a majority of Americans believe the claim, though the military has repeatedly said they just don’t have the evidence to defend it. Centcom’s commander has also recently doubted it.

Beyond military doubts, US intelligence has also expressed major doubts, saying they have “low confidence” of the allegations. It is unclear why this continues, when between military leadership and intelligence community no one seems to be buying the story.

That said, Milley told the committee that if it turns out this claim is true, something that looks remotely unlikely, he said that the US would respond against Russia in some non-specific way.

(antiwar.com)

Appears this was a campaign put together by the M-IC to keep troops and equipment in Afghanistan thus preserving their profits for longer.

Bring The Troops Home!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

 

Mutiny Of The Bounties

Pandemic is growing every day and the protests apparently are not newsworthy anymore….so what can the media be going on about?

Bounties!

There has been a story circulating around the nation…it seems a report has been found that tells of bounties paid by Russia for the killing of American soldiers.

The president has denied the whole affair…..and there is contradictory reports as well…..

The new controversy over allegations that Russia put bounties on US troops in Afghanistan—and whether President Trump himself was briefed about it—continues to gain steam. The White House briefed a group of Republican lawmakers on the issue Monday, and a group of Democratic lawmakers will be briefed on Tuesday, reports Politico. Trump has insisted that he was never told about the allegations, though reports continue to surface challenging that. The AP, for example, is out with a story saying that top White House officials were aware of classified intel on the matter in early 2019 and that it “was included in at least one of President Donald Trump’s written daily intelligence briefings at the time.” The story also reports that former national security adviser John Bolton has told friends he briefed Trump about it.

The New York Times makes a similar assertion in the first paragraph of its latest story: “American officials provided a written briefing in late February to President Trump laying out their conclusion that a Russian military intelligence unit offered and paid bounties to Taliban-linked militants to kill U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan, two officials familiar with the matter said.” One of the Republicans in Monday’s briefing, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, defended the president afterward, reports NBC News. Yes, the allegation may have appeared in a written briefing to the president, he said, but it wasn’t deemed to be “a credible, actionable piece of intelligence” at the time. “And if at any point it did, it would be raised to his attention.” McCaul, the top Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee, added that he came out of the briefing concerned that the bounty allegations were true.

As I said there is some opposition to this report….and it comes from NSA……

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the National Security Agency “strongly dissented from other intelligence agencies’ assessment that Russia paid bounties for the killing of US soldiers in Afghanistan.”

Another account of the NSA not giving much weight to this intelligence was given to CBS News reporter Catherine Herridge on Monday. An unnamed intelligence official told Herridge that the NSA deemed a report on the Russian bounties “uncorroborated.” The official said the report “does not match well-established and verifiable Taliban and Haqqani practices” and lacks “sufficient reporting to corroborate any links.”

The CIA is used as an example in the Journal’s report of an agency the NSA allegedly disagreed with over the intelligence. So far, the CIA has declined to comment on the issue besides a vague statement from CIA Director Gina Haspel. “When developing intelligence assessments, initial tactical reports often require additional collection and validation …  Leaks compromise and disrupt the critical interagency work to collect, assess, and ascribe culpability,” Haspel said.

NSA Dissents From Other Agencies Over Russian Bounty Intel

Are there problems with these reports?

According to the American Conservative there are three problems…..

A bombshell report published by The New York Times Friday alleges that Russia paid dollar bounties to the Taliban in Afghanistan to kill U.S troops. Obscured by an extremely bungled White House press response, there are at least three serious flaws with the reporting.

The article alleges that GRU, a top-secret unit of Russian military intelligence, offered the bounty in payment for every U.S. soldier killed in Afghanistan, and that at least one member of the U.S. military was alleged to have been killed in exchange for the bounties. According to the paper, U.S. intelligence concluded months ago that the Russian unit involved in the bounties was also linked to poisonings, assassination attempts and other covert operations in Europe. The Times reports that United States intelligence officers and Special Operations forces in Afghanistan came to this conclusion about Russian bounties some time in 2019.

Three Glaring Problems with the Russian Taliban ‘Bounty’ Story

Could this report be timed for a specific audience?

Afghan Bounty Scandal Comes at Suspiciously Important Time for US Military Industrial Complex

Looks like confirmation of the accusations…….

But three separate Taliban sources told Insider they were aware of Russian bounty payments being made — though they said only the less-disciplined elements on the fringes of the group would take up such an offer.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-did-pay-extremists-attack-american-soldiers-taliban-sources-say-2020-7

Bounties?

If these stories prove to be accurate then there is nothing new…sorry to crap on your parade.

The US has put the bounty on Osama and other AQ leaders as well as ISIS……it has also has put bounties on “criminals” in Africa….

It is not the first time that American soldiers have been targeted with bounties……….My time in Vietnam I was a LRRP and in the Delta there was a bounty on us of 500 dong (Vietnamese money) paid by the North Vietnamese….I am sure that we were not the only targets for these bounties.

I think the bigger story is whether the president knew or not….if not then why?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Spend China And Russian Into Submission

Since we have bowed out of every nuke deal ever made and China and Russia have stepped up to get in the nuke game….but not to worry the US is willing to spend whatever it takes to crush their rivals in the nuclear arms race….

US arms control negotiator Marshall Billingslea, far from focusing on avoiding an arms race, saying that the US “sure would like to avoid it” but is also willing to spend Russia and China “into oblivion” to win a nuclear arms race.

“The president has made clear that we have a tried and truce practice here. We know how to win these races and we know how to spend the adversary into oblivion.” This was the go-to US strategy in the Cold War, where the US vastly outpsent the Soviet Union.

With the US scrapping the INF and Open Skies treaties, it seems unlikely to extend New START, making a costly arms race an increasing risk. Since the US vastly outspends everyone on the military, there seems to be an assumption they can win by just keeping up the spending.

Whether that is practical going forward, however, is another matter. With the US engaged in a costly battle with coronavirus, there was already talk the US would have to slash spending, particularly on arms, to deal with the deficit. A huge arms race is just not affordable.

(antiwar.com)

So the US cannot find the cash for a failing infrastructure or the fight against Covid-19….but they are willing to spend whatever it takes to embarrass their rivals….is that about it?

The US has enough nukes to make humanity suffer a bunch…..so do we really need more?  According to Donald the Orange….we do.

How does the US get Russia and China to the negotiating table? Senior administration officials came up the idea of carrying out the first US nuclear test explosion since 1992, and this conversation is still ongoing.

Carrying out nuclear tests is a hugely provocative move on the global scale, and yet the Trtump Administration thought it could “prove useful” in trying to get Russia and China into trilateral nuclear talks.

This probably was also informing the administration in accusing, without evidence, both Russia and China of conducting nuclear tests in secret. Global monitoring makes secret tests all but impossible, but allegating them of having done so would be cover for the US to do it too.

Officials said the December discussion on the matter didn’t end with any agreement to conduct a test, but that it is an “ongoing conversation” that they keep going back to as a possible idea in response to threats from Russia and China.

(antiwar.com)

For those too damn young to remember all the PR about nukes and the results…..let me refresh some memories…..

A professor at Georgetown University, he’s taught an undergraduate course on nuclear weapons and world politics for the past decade. He always asks the same question on the last day: How many of his students think they’ll see nuclear weapons used in their lifetime?

For many years, no more than one student would raise their hand. That made sense, he told me, because in those days, “talking about nuclear war was like talking about dinosaurs — it’s just something from the past that won’t be something in our future.”

But the past couple of years have been different. When he asked that question again this spring, roughly 60 percent of his students raised their hands. What’s more, he agrees with them. “If I had to bet at least one nuclear weapon would be used in my lifetime,” says the 40-year-old Kroenig, “my bet would be yes.”

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/10/19/17873822/nuclear-war-weapons-bombs-how-kill

We need sanity in our approaches to the rest ofm them world…not knee jerk reactions and a dash to the TV for the delivery of lies and disinformation.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Women’s History #4–Saltychikha

A look into history from the perspective of the Old Professor….

Let’s go to Russia who has had a wealth of “evil” men…..like Ivan the Terrible and Stalin…..how about women?

History has its “Bad” women…..those that tell the starving to eat cake…or those that worked as guards in prison camps……but for this post I would like to write about Russia’s evilest woman….Daria Saltykova of 18th century Russia.

When one thinks about serial killers, it’s usually male figures that first come to mind. But history knows no shortage of cruel women – just remember the famous Hungarian Countess Elizabeth Báthory, who killed hundreds of young women between 1585-1609.

Well, a noblewoman with a similar inclination also lived in Russia in the 18th century. Her name was Daria Saltykova, but the people referred to her simply “Saltychikha”, pointing to her notorious nature, which turned her into a somewhat mythical figure in the collective Russian mind.

It was proven that, in 1756-1762, she killed at least 38 of her serfs, with the number likely being a lot higher. Witnesses spoke of 138 deaths in total, but her involvement was never confirmed. Among her victims were mainly young women whom she would beat with whips, bats and logs, tear their hair, burn with a hot iron, starve, freeze or drown to death.

Even when she was still alive, people used to spread scary stories and rumors about her taking baths in victims’ blood and eating babies.

So who was this woman and why had the authorities failed to capture her for so many years? And, most importantly, what drove her desire to kill and mutilate?

https://www.rbth.com/history/331778-saltychikha-story

Learn Stuff!

Class Dismissed!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Who Would Have Thought?

Closing Thought–10Feb20

As an old fart I remember the Soviet Union (do you?) and then when some talked anything positive about the Soviets they were spouting Russian propaganda and should be shot for treason (some felt that way but not all)……

I cannot understand this blind obedience to Russia these days (especially the old farts that now defend Russia)……or the allowing Russia a free hand in our society……or the wholesale spreading of Russian propaganda by fellow Americans…..

This is what got me ranting or as some would call it “bitching”…..

Kansas City radio lovers can now hear six hours of Russian state-owned media per day, the Hill reports. That’s because a Florida-based company, RM Broadcasting LLC, has agreed with Radio Sputnik to broadcast its Russian media through the Alpine Broadcasting Corp, which airs on three frequencies around Kansas City and in Washington, DC. The Kremlin mouthpiece can be heard from 6am-9am and 6pm-9pm every day of the week. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Sputnik and another Russian state media outlet played a role in influencing the 2016 federal election.

Now Arnold Ferolito, the man behind RM Broadcasting, is chafing under a federal requirement that his company register as a foreign agent. “Ninety percent of the programming is generated right here in the United States,” Ferolito tells the Kansas City Star, which broke the story. “I just sell airtime that’s all I do. The government put a gun to my head and forced me to sign.” When registering in 2019, RM Broadcasting said it made $1.43 million in the deal, though Ferolito insists he’s not turning a profit. “The American dream is dead in a lot of ways,” he says. “There’s people hell bent on Russia, Russia, Russia. One of these days it’s going to be China.”

These are the very same people that use to hate and rail against Russia and its minions that attempted to infiltrate American society and now we are inviting them to come in and spread their foul propaganda.

What has this country become?

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“lego erego scribo”

Curb Your Mercenaries

Closing Thought–27Nov19

Speaking of Mercenaries…..

It is not secret that I do not think that the country needs to use mercenaries….my bad….security consultants…..that is why we spend so much on our military so we do not have to go elsewhere for our soldiers.

The US has its Blackwater or whatever they are calling themselves these days and other such “security firms”…they are being used in Afghanistan and Iraq and probably every other country in which we have a fight going on……

I bring this up because of something our Congress did…..they chastised Russia for using mercenaries in Libya….

My first reaction was…SAY WHAT?

Congress is preparing bipartisan sanctions on Russian mercenaries and other suspected human rights violators in Libya, Al-Monitor has learned, as the Donald Trump administration looks to use the recent entry of Moscow-linked paramilitaries into the conflict to reinvigorate a long-dormant American strategy in the war-torn country.

Foreign relations committee member Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., and Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., are set to introduce legislation codifying Treasury Department sanctions to limit Russian proxy activity. The bill would require President Trump to slap visa bans and freeze US property for arms traffickers, those illegally exploiting Libya’s vast supplies of crude oil and human rights abusers.

Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Chris Murphy. D-Conn., are also expected to sign onto the legislation, sources familiar with the bill say. The legislation also would require the United States to work with humanitarian organizations to ensure that aid be delivered in the country. “We just wanted Congress to weigh in and give a carrot-and-stick approach,” a House aide told Al-Monitor.

 
Now that is the height of hypocrisy……condemn a nation for doing what we are doing….
 
If it is wrong in Libya then it is wrong every fucking where!
 
Must prepare for the day tomorrow……lots of cooking ahead.
 
I Read, I Wrote, You Know
 
“Lego Ergo Scribo”