Tag: NATO

What’s Next For Ukraine?

I thought I would return to the days of yesteryear and comment on the doings in Ukraine….you remember them right?

They were the ‘popular’ war before the mash-up in Gaza that everyone was thrilled with departing their take on that situation.

Of course most of them were wrong but that’s alright they deserve their say….

Remember the much stated line of “As long as it takes”?  Meaning the war will continue until Russia is brought to its knees.

It turns out that “as long as it takes” may mean little more than 21 months. In fact, for months, the United States has been critical of Ukraine’s strategy and tactics. The German magazine Bild reported last week that Biden was going back on his word, that the U.S. and Germany would both begin to softly pressure Ukraine to go to the negotiating table with Russia. Bild‘s report was hotly denied by the administration, but the truth is that the great blob of respectable foreign-policy opinion that supports the Biden policy in Ukraine is wriggling itself into a new position.

So if the reports are valid what’s next for Ukraine?

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins to unravel, it is not clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths already suffered have purchased any of its goals.

Ukraine is not in NATO, and it has not received any firm assurance that it will ever be. All that has happened is that the fifteen year old promise that Ukraine will some day become a member of NATO has been updated to a promise that Ukraine will “join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.” Recognizing the ruse, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has bitterly complained that “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine.”

Ukraine is not whole. It has not pushed Russia off its land or reacquired any significant amount of contested territory. Donbass and Crimea remain firmly in Russia’s control. No Ukrainian advance severed Crimea from the mainland. Indeed, as the New York Times pointed out at the end of September, during this counteroffensive Ukraine actually lost more territory than it gained.

https://original.antiwar.com/Nicolai_Petro/2023/11/16/whats-next-for-ukraine-the-outlines-of-a-peaceful-settlement/

Seriously?  The move now is to negotiate and end to this conflict and yet the same thing could have been accomplished in March of 2022…..

David Arakhamia, a high-ranking member of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People political party, said that Kyiv could have ended the war with Russia after a month if it agreed not to join NATO. The official said that Moscow was not concerned about other issues, such as “denazification,” but only wanted Kyiv to agree to neutrality.

In an interview with TV channel 1+1, a Ukrainian network, Arakhamia confirmed previous reporting that Moscow and Kyiv had nearly agreed to end the war in March 2022. Still, Ukraine’s Western backers pushed it to try to win the war against Russia. “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality,” Arakhamia  said.” It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.”

Arakhamia, who led the Ukrainian negotiation team, said that other issues, such as the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the “denazification” of the government in Kyiv, were less important to Moscow. “In fact, [neutrality] was the key point.” He continued, “Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah.”

Arakhamia explained that while Kyiv’s Western backers did not discourage talks, they advised against accepting a deal. “They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees, which could not have been given at that time at all,” he stated during the interview.

The statements in the interview by Arakhamia confirm several reports from other officials – Russian, Turkish, and American – that a deal was offered by the Kremlin in the early days of the war to withdraw Russian forces to the prewar lines in exchange for Kyiv’s vow to never join NATO.

Now, after 20 months of war, Ukraine’s Western backers are discussing Kyiv’s opening dialogue with Moscow. Since the talks in the early months of the conflict, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is likely to demand more territorial concessions than what was once on the table for Kyiv.

(antiwar.com)

Sounds like the US is trying to save money so they can funnel it into the coffers of Israel….at least to me.

On another front….politics….

Looks like Zelensky will have a challenger (possibly two) if and when he allows elections in Ukraine….

Internal polling in Ukraine shows that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could lose a presidential election if he faces off with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, The Economist reported on Tuesday.

So far, Zaluzhny has not expressed an interest in entering the political fray, but he’s been rumored to be a potential candidate. It’s also been reported that he’s been at odds with Zelensky, a spat that spilled into the public after Zaluzhny called the war against Russia a stalemate and said there would likely be no “deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

Zelensky, who is still claiming Ukraine can win, later took a swipe at Zaluzhny, saying Ukrainian generals should stay out of politics. “If a military man decided to do politics, it is his right, then he should enter politics, and then he can’t deal with war,” Zelensky said.

But polling shows the Ukrainian public trusts Zaluzhny more than the country’s political leadership, as Kyiv has been rocked by corruption scandals.

The Economist report reads: “The figures, which date from mid-November, show trust in the president has fallen to a net +32%, less than half that of the still revered General Mr Zaluzhny (+70%). Ukraine’s spychief, Kyrylo Budanov, also has better ratings than the president (+45%).”

Ukraine’s next presidential election is scheduled for March 2024, but Zelensky has ruled out holding one due to the war because Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding a vote under martial law. Zelensky previously suggested he could hold an election if the West foots the bill but later ruled out the idea.

“I believe that elections are not appropriate at this time,” Zelensky said earlier this month. For now, the Ukrainian public agrees that there shouldn’t be an election. The same polling cited by The Economist said eight out of ten Ukrainians are against holding elections, but things could change as the war drags on with no end or victory in sight.

(antiwar.com)

Zelensky will hang on to the purse strings of Ukraine as long as he can.

NATO says be prepared for bad news….

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Saturday that the alliance must be prepared for bad news about Ukraine and urged support for continuing the proxy war against Russia.

“Wars develop in phases,” Stoltenberg told the German broadcaster ARD. “We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times. We should also be prepared for bad news.”

Stoltenberg acknowledged Ukraine has been unable to “move the front line” but claimed Ukrainian forces were still achieving “big victories.” He previously argued that Ukraine was having some success because it was inflicting heavy losses on Russia, although Kyiv is currently facing a serious manpower shortage.

(antiwar.com)

This conflict needs to end….for the sake of the Ukrainian people who are doing the majority of the suffering.

I Have Spoken, It Is Written

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Wallet Has Moths

This ought to be good….how many AI comments will this produce?

Things are looking sort of grim for Ukraine….it appears that cash and equipment is running short.

The US is running low, UK is running low and the whole of NATO is running low.

First the US….

The US will run out of money to pay for Ukrainian government salaries and services within the next month if Congress does not authorize more Ukraine aid, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed US and Ukrainian officials.

The US and Ukraine’s other Western backers have been paying the salaries of about 150,000 civil servants in Ukraine. This has been done through a form of US support known as direct budgetary aid that is provided through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the World Bank.

According to the Journal, the World Bank has sent $23.4 billion to Ukraine through the program, with $20.2 billion funded by the US and $2 billion from the UK. USAID is expected to provide another $1.15 billion this month, but future disbursements are unclear.

A recent report from 60 Minutes showed how the US economic aid for Ukraine is not just funding the government. The US aid also subsidizes small businesses and helps purchase seeds and fertilizers for Ukrainian farmers. The owner of a knitwear business in Ukraine spoke with 60 Minutes and acknowledged funding for her company was being provided by US taxpayers.

(antiwar.com)

Read the last paragraph closely.

Now for the UK….

The UK has run out of military equipment that it can give to Ukraine, according to a senior British military source speaking to The Telegraph.

“We’ve given away just about as much as we can afford,” the unnamed source told the paper, adding that the UK had a role to play in encouraging other nations to continue arming Ukraine.

“We will continue to source equipment to provide for Ukraine, but what they need now is things like air defense assets and artillery ammunition, and we’ve run dry on all that,” the source said.

The UK has been a staunch supporter of the proxy war in Ukraine and has led many escalations in NATO support, including the provision of Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have a range of 155 miles, and toxic depleted uranium ammunition for use with British-made Challenger 2 tanks.

The UK’s lack of arms for Ukraine is the latest sign that NATO support for the proxy war is fracturing. Poland recently declared it would no longer provide Ukraine with weapons over a grain spat, Slovakia elected a candidate who campaigned on ending military support for Ukraine, and Congress still has yet to authorize the additional $24 billion in spending on the war that President Biden is seeking.

(antiwar.com)

Then there is NATO’s statement….

The head of NATO’s Military Committee is urging the alliance to increase arms production, warning the “bottom of the barrel” of NATO’s stockpiles is now visible due to the massive amounts of weapons and ammunition that have been shipped to Ukraine.

Dutch Adm. Rob Bauer made the comments on the first day of the Warsaw Security Forum. He said NATO military budgets increased before the Russian invasion but that the Western arms industry did not increase production capacity.

“And that has led to higher prices already before the war. And that actually has (been) exacerbated by the fact that we now give away weapon systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses,” Bauer said, according to TVP World.

“We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe and therefore the bottom of the barrel is now visible. And we need the industry to ramp up production at a much higher tempo and we need large volumes,” he added.

Bauer’s comments came after a British military source told The Telegraph that the UK was out of weapons to give to Ukraine. “We will continue to source equipment to provide for Ukraine, but what they need now is things like air defense assets and artillery ammunition, and we’ve run dry on all that,” the source said.

(antiwar.com)

I asked are cracks forming?

Now Ukraine is worried about their gravy train….

Ukrainian officials are “freaking out” over the uncertainty about new Ukraine aid being passed through Congress, a Ukrainian member of parliament told POLITICO.

“We are freaking out. For us it is a disaster,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, an MP who chairs the committee on Ukraine’s integration into the EU. “We are interested in getting things sorted out so American democracy can function, and so we can restore the bipartisan consensus on supporting their own national interest by supporting Ukraine.”

Markarova also said there was $1.23 billion left in budgetary aid, which the US provides through the World Bank and pays for Ukrainian government services and salaries, among other things. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the US only has enough budgetary aid to pay for the month of October and that the funds would dry up if Congress doesn’t authorize more aid.

(antiwar.com)

We pay for their government officials?

When will this stupidity stop?

American’s could be getting war weary….

A new poll by Reuters shows only 41% believe Washington should continue to send arms to Kiev. The White House is pushing Congress to pass a $24 billion aid package for Ukraine. However, the assistance package is being held up as the House seeks a new Speaker, causing some in Kiev to panic. 

The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll found 41% of Americans support sending more arms to Ukraine, while 35% opposed further military assistance. When the same survey was conducted in May, 46% of Americans backed sending arms, while 29% were opposed.

A recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll found the country is divided on whether aid to Ukraine has been worth it. 53% responded the billions sent to Ukraine was “worth the cost,” and 45% say it has not been worth the cost. The same survey found 63% of Americans favor sending more weapons to Kiev, although Republican support slipped to 50%. 

Biden’s concern for Ukraine is admirable but where is that damn concern for the people of this country?

Biden also hinted that he may have another way to get the money. “There is another means by which we may be able to find funding, but I’m not going to get into that right now,”

Where is this hidden supply of cash when the country needs it?

Finally the EU has said that with US they cannot carry on….

The EU’s top diplomat on Thursday said the European bloc could not provide Ukraine with enough support without the US amid uncertainty about when Congress might authorize the next tranche of spending on the proxy war.

“Europe cannot fill the gap of the US,” Josep Borrell said after arriving in Spain for a gathering of European leaders, according to POLITICO.

The EU is close to approving a new economic aid package for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros that would cover 2024-2027, although Hungary could further delay the package. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the massive aid package should be approved within the next few months but said US support still remains crucial.

Von der Leyen also said she was “confident” that the US would continue supporting Ukraine but acknowledged she wasn’t sure when new spending would be authorized.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, the US has another tranche of economic aid worth over $1 billion to fund the Ukrainian government through the month of October. If a new aid package isn’t authorized by Congress in the next month, the funds will dry up.

(antiwar.com)

This is all so much crap.

Time for these buttwads to stop their infernal macho crap and sit down and hammer out a ceasefire deal so calmer heads can take over.

As I was writing this draft more news has come out…..Biden wants a huge package of spending on Ukraine….

President Biden is considering asking Congress for a massive $100 billion spending package for the Ukraine war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday.

The idea of the huge spending package would be to fund the proxy war through the 2024 election without having to worry about the growing opposition to the policy in Congress, as the majority of the House and the Senate currently still support arming Ukraine.

“The ‘big package’ idea is firmly supported by many throughout the administration,” a source familiar with discussions on the matter told The Telegraph. “Supporters of Ukraine want this to be a one-and-done big bill, and then not have to deal with it until after the next election.”

Defense News recently reported that multiple senators have also proposed passing a massive Ukraine aid package to get through a whole year. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put the price tag at $70 billion.

(antiwar.com)

Sorry but this situation is getting ridiculous….time for more money for Ukraine and Israel is not now.

Turn The Page!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

NATO Membership Is Expensive

NATO’s newest member is finding out this fact.

Finland became NATO’s newest member today (4 April 2023), upon depositing its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the United States at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. NATO Allies signed Finland’s Accession Protocol on 5 July 2022, after which all 30 national parliaments voted to ratify the country’s membership.

Finland is learning that it is expensive to belong to the alliance that offers protection under the US nuclear umbrella (what does that actually mean?).

Barely a year after Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland cast aside decades of non-alignment and self-reliance and joined the NATO alliance.
 
That happened at break neck speed, as these matters go, but gaining membership may have been the easy part. Now comes the complicated process of integrating itself into the alliance and its requirement of collective defense — with all of its financial, legal and strategic hurdles.
“Joining NATO is an expensive business, and supporting Ukraine is an expensive business, and there’s no end to that in sight,” said Janne Kuusela, director-general for defense policy at Finland’s Ministry of Defense.
 
Membership in NATO has long been considered a cheap benefit, given the American nuclear umbrella and the principle of collective defense. But NATO also has extensive requirements of its members — not just spending goals for the military, but specific demands from each country for certain capabilities, armaments, troop strengths and infrastructure as defined by the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.
 
Achieving that will demand some difficult and costly decisions from the government and military officials as they learn to think strategically outside Finland’s borders and adapt its forces and their capabilities to the alliance’s needs.
 
How long will it be before they, Finland, regret their impatience?
 
Will this decision become a Finnish budget breaker?
 
Was this membership out of fear since Finland has a 800 mile border with Russia in their South?
 
Does Finland have a massive weapons industry that could benefit greatly from this membership?  Or will they depend on another country?
 
Again….just asking.
 
Plus the word has come out that US is low on funds these days…
 

The Pentagon has warned Congress that it’s running out of money to replace stockpiles of weapons that have been sent to Ukraine and has been forced to slow down the replenishment of the US military.

The warning comes after Congress passed a short-term funding bill to avert a government shutdown that did not include money to continue fueling the proxy war in Ukraine.

According to AP, Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord told House and Senate leaders that the US military has $1.6 billion left of the $25.9 billion Congress has authorized to replace weapons poured into Ukraine.

“We have already been forced to slow down the replenishment of our own forces to hedge against an uncertain funding future,” McCord said in a letter to congressional leaders. “Failure to replenish our military services on a timely basis could harm our military’s readiness.”

McCord said the Pentagon is completely out of funds for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the administration to purchase weapons for Ukraine and is meant as more long-term support. He said without new funding for the war soon, the Pentagon will be forced to restrict the types of arms being sent to Ukraine that are “critical and urgent now as Russia prepares to conduct a winter offensive.”

(antiwar.com)

Not to worry they, Congress, will find the cash for Ukraine….just not for hungry kids in this country.
 
Another minute crack has formed in support for Ukraine…..first it was Poland….then Hungary….and now Slovakia…..

A populist party in Slovakia that opposes providing military assistance to Ukraine has won the country’s elections, a vote that could significantly change the NATO member’s foreign policy and support for the proxy war.

Former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who leads the Slovak Social Democracy party, known as Smer-SD, campaigned on ending military aid to Ukraine. Fico doubled down on his position after winning the vote, saying, “people in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine.”

Smer-SD won 29.9% of the vote and 42 seats out of the nation’s 150-seat parliament. Since the party did not win a majority of seats in parliament, it needs to form a coalition government. Fico said he was ready to form a government once given the mandate by the president.

Fico’s expected partners are the leftist Hlas party, which is a spin-off of Smer-SD and gained 14.7% of the vote, and the nationalist Slovak National Party, which received 5.6% of the vote. If the three parties join forces, they will have 79 seats in parliament.

(antiwar.com)

As this conflict drags on how many others will join the cracks…..I do not expect the major arms dealers to join in this….way too much money being made.
 
I Read, I Write, You Know
 
“lego ergo scribo”

Is Support Starting To Wane?

For over a year and half the West through NATO has been a staunch supporter of the forces in Ukraine against their adversary Russia in the conflict.

At times it seemed to me that it was blind support…..support for sake of some unseen reason. And I have been saying that it is time for our cash to go to where it was needed and that Western Europe should be the main entity of support after all they have the most reasons for concern.

It appears that at least one NATO country is pulling out of the coalition of war….Poland.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Wednesday that Poland is no longer arming Ukraine, marking a significant shift as Warsaw has been a staunch supporter of the NATO proxy war with Russia.

Morawiecki’s comments come amid a spat between Warsaw and Kyiv over a Polish ban on Ukrainian grain. When asked if the dispute would impact Polish support for Ukraine, Morawiecki said, “We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons.”

He insisted that Warsaw had no intention of risking “the security of Ukraine” and that weapons shipments from other countries transiting through Poland would not be interfered with. Poland has become the primary hub for NATO arms shipments into Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.

Despite all the support, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took a shot at Poland and two other EU countries for maintaining a ban on Ukrainian grain. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of Black Sea shipping, there’s been an influx of Ukrainian grain shipments into the EU.

Earlier this year, the EU agreed to restrict the import of Ukrainian grain to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia over complaints from farmers about a drop in prices. Last week, the EU said it would lift the restriction, but Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia said they would continue banning Ukrainian grain from their markets.

At the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Zelensky accused the countries of helping Russia. “Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theater — turning grain into a thriller. They may seem to play their own roles. In fact, they’re helping set the stage for a Moscow actor,” he said.

(antiwar.com)

Maybe trying to bully another country is not the way to win friends and influence people.

Support in the US is also waning?

According to a CNN poll it is…..

Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.

Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html

As this conflict drags on….and according to some belief it will last years and years…..support will dry up but at what cost to American taxpayers?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Let’s Talk NATO Now

At one time the alliance known as NATO has its place in history….not now for it is nothing more than an extension of the M-IC.

In the beginning, 1949, there was the mission statement….

The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.
They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defense and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty.

There was a time when I can see the necessity for this organization….the whole world after WW2 was running scared that the USSR was on a mission to take all of Western Europe after their annexation of Eastern Europe.

In my opinion when the USSR collapsed and was no longer the Russia bear that all feared it was time to dissolve NATO and let Western Europe come up with their own ‘mutual defense’ scheme.

But sadly I was in a minority in those days.

Fast forward to today, 2023….

The alliance is billed as ….’ for the preservation of peace and security’ and that is a con.

At his speech during the NATO Summit in Lithuania, President Biden called the U.S. and Europe “anchors for global security” when in reality there are no anchors during this increasingly dangerous and polarized time of never-ending war in Europe. Our NATO allies are not, as Biden would suggest, anchors in a turbulent sea of demons but rather catalysts stirring the cauldron of war on behalf of US empire.

The instability of the NATO alliance was evident in the controversy over the key issue of Ukraine membership. Biden and his administration tried to work both sides of the street. On the one hand, Biden insisted that “Ukraine’s future lies at NATO.” But then the US teamed up with Germany to make sure the summit made only a vague statement about Ukraine joining when allies agree and “conditions are met,” incurring the wrath of a fuming President Zelensky. Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN that everyone “needs to look squarely at the fact” that allowing Ukraine to join NATO at this point “means war with Russia.”

But this does not mean that Biden, or NATO, are ready to endorse peace talks. On the contrary. The NATO Summit came on the heels of Biden’s much-scorned decision to send banned cluster bombs to Ukraine. And at the Summit, France announced plans to send new long-range strike missiles; Germany announced a new round of military aid, including tanks and artillery shells; and 11 NATO countries pledged to train Ukrainian pilots to fly nuclear-capable F-16 fighter jets. In short, Ukraine’s Zelensky walked away from the NATO summit with a declaration of years of military subsidies, a virtual blank check to make Ukraine a forever proxy to maintain US hegemony. As NATO members send Ukraine more and more destructive weapons, the terrifying possibility of a wider war, even a nuclear war, casts a shadow over the entire globe.

NATO Is a Warfare Alliance, Not a Force for Global Peace or Stability

This organization has been a war alliance since the mid-90s when it started expanded beyond the borders of Western Europe.

The Balkans, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Ukraine all wars….not a bit of ‘peace and security’ in them all.

Does the US and NATO want all this war or does it want something else?

NATO is taking the place of the UN….at least the UN does attempt at peaceful resolution….not so with NATO it is expansion and intervention on a grand scale.

Time for this alliance to go the way of the do-do….I know not likely to occur for there is way too much cash in war dividends for it to consider anything other than war.

That said could this Ukraine thing derail NATO (finally)….

Both prongs of Biden’s strategy – sanctions and military action by proxy – were, it is now clear, delusional. The first, famously expecting to reduce the ruble to rubble and to push the Russian economy ‘back to the stone age’, had become a manifest failure by the end of 2022 if not earlier. As for the second, despite the billions in military assistance, despite exhausting Western weapons stockpiles, despite discovering the quantitative and qualitative limits to Western weapons production capacities notwithstanding astronomically expensive military industrial complexes, despite ever more deadly weapons now including cluster bombs, despite reliance on neo-Nazi battalions, despite US and Ukrainian willingness to incur macabre levels of Ukrainian and mercenary casualties, it has been clear for some time that Ukraine is losing and has no prospect of winning.

President Biden acknowledged this in his turnaround on offering Ukraine membership of NATO or even giving it a timetable for the same and his new-found insistence that not only should things not be made easy for Ukraine to join, not only should Ukraine demonstrate progress on requisite reforms, but it should conclude a peace treaty with Russia before it can join NATO, a point repeated more than one by Jens Stoltenberg at Vilnius.

(antiwar.com)

And the waste goes on….

After Ukraine where will NATO expand?

It has become this enormous empire…..an empire of war.  Will it try to turn to the Far East in the future?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

NATO Gives Ukraine The Finger

Metaphorically….that is.

And Zelenskyy (why 2 “Y”s?) is fuming and demanding and throwing a hissy fit.

One of the points that lead Herr Putin to invade Ukraine was the possibility of them joining NATO.

There are conditions to be met before an invitation is issued and right now Ukraine is not anywhere near close to putting those conditions in place.

And NATO issued a statement on Ukraine membership in NATO….

NATO leaders agreed Tuesday to allow Ukraine to join “when allies agree and conditions are met,” hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky blasted the organization’s failure to set a timetable for his country as “absurd.” “We reaffirmed Ukraine will become a member of NATO and agreed to remove the requirement for a membership action plan,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters, referring to a key step in joining the alliance. “This will change Ukraine’s membership path from a two-step path to a one-step path,” he said, per the AP.

Although many NATO members have funneled arms and ammunition to Zelensky’s forces, there is no consensus among the 31 allies for admitting Ukraine into NATO’s ranks. Instead, the alliance leaders decided to remove obstacles on Ukraine’s membership path so that it can join more quickly once the war with Russia is over. Zelensky pushed back sharply against the decision. “It’s unprecedented and absurd when a time frame is set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership,” he tweeted as he headed to the annual NATO summit in Vilnius. “While at the same time, vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine. It seems there is no readiness to invite Ukraine to NATO or to make it a member of the Alliance.”

Zelenskyy is expected to meet Wednesday with President Biden and other NATO leaders. There have been sharp divisions within the alliance over Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, which was promised back in 2008 even though few steps were taken toward that goal. The Baltic states—including Lithuania, which is hosting the summit—have pushed for a strong show of support and a clear pathway toward membership for Ukraine. However, the United States and Germany urged caution. Biden said last week that Ukraine was not ready to join. Some also fear that bringing Ukraine into NATO would serve more as a provocation to Russia than as a deterrence against aggression.

Absurd?

Zelensky wants to be a member because he wants NATO to do his fighting for him…..does that mean he realizes Ukraine cannot win this war?

These are the first words of the NATO charter….

The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.
They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty :

(My problem with NATO is that has more members not bordering the North Atlantic than those that do)

And there is where Zelensky is drooling….’unite their efforts in collective defense…’he wants us all to be at war.

Democracy is sadly lacking in Ukraine….no elections, no opposition parties. pares shutdown, people arrested, religion banned, etc….I know we can argue that it is a time of war and some things need to be done….maybe so but does that not fly in the face of democracy?

Just wondering.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

NATO’s Move East

About a month ago the announcement was made that NATO is opening an office in Japan…..I let my opinion be known on how much I thought this is a bad idea…..but read it for yourself…….

NATO Moves East

Looks like not all of NATO’s members are down with this stupidity…..

French President Emmanuel Macron objects to NATO’s plans to open a liaison office in Japan and thinks the alliance should stay in the North Atlantic, Financial Times reported on Monday.

NATO’s push to open its first office in the Asia Pacific is part of the US’s plans to get its Western allies more involved in its strategy against China in the region. NATO’s plans to open a Japan office were first reported by Nikkei Asia in early May, drawing a rebuke from Beijing.

People familiar with the matter told Financial Times that France’s position has complicated NATO talks on the Japan office, which have been ongoing for months. A French official said that Paris believes the NATO charter limits the alliance’s geographic range to the North Atlantic.

Macron has said publicly that he doesn’t think NATO should expand beyond the North Atlantic. “If … we push Nato to enlarge the spectrum and the geography, we will make a big mistake,” the French leader said last week.

All 31 NATO members need to agree to open a new liaison office, meaning France could potentially block the move. News of France’s position comes nearly two months after Macron said Europe should not follow the US into a conflict with China over Taiwan.

NATO has had its eyes on China for a few years now, and Beijing has repeatedly warned the alliance to stay out of the region. “NATO’s continued eastward foray into the Asia Pacific and interference in regional affairs will inevitably undermine regional peace and stability and stoke camp confrontation. This calls for high vigilance among regional countries,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said last month.

(antiwar.com)

I am glad to see that at least someone in NATO sees the folly in NATO moving East…..I agree as the name implies NATO should restrict itself to the North Atlantic.

Moving East is not going to work out well….it will not insure peace…the opposite maybe the outcome.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

NATO Moves East

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has decided to open an office in Japan to help deal with the growing threat from China and other future problems.

NATO is planning to open a liaison office in Japan next year, the alliance’s first in Asia, Nikkei Asia reported Wednesday.

In recent years, NATO has turned its gaze toward the Asia Pacific region and named China a “systemic challenge” in its 2022 Strategic Concept. As part of its strategy against China, the alliance is deepening cooperation with countries in the region.

According to Nikkei, the purpose of the liaison office in Japan is to “allow the military alliance to conduct periodic consultations with Japan and key partners in the region, such as South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand as China emerges as a new challenge, alongside its traditional focus on Russia.”

The report said NATO and Japan will take more steps to increase cooperation by signing an agreement known as an Individually Tailored Partnership Programme ahead of the NATO summit that will be held in Vilnius, Lithuania, in June. Japan also plans to open an independent mission to NATO, separate from the Embassy in Belgium.

In response to the news, China warned of NATO’s plans to expand into Asia. “Asia is an anchor for peace and stability and a promising land for cooperation and development, not a wrestling ground for geopolitical competition,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.

“NATO’s continued eastward foray into the Asia Pacific and interference in regional affairs will inevitably undermine regional peace and stability and stoke camp confrontation. This calls for high vigilance among regional countries,” she added.

(antiwar.com)

With the move into Asia the organization should consider re-naming the group to reflect its expansion into the rest of the world outside Europe…..something that will reflect its growing power…..something like maybe the United Nations…..oh wait that one is already taken…..think on.

Yep I do not think the US should encourage this move…..we already have a strong presence in Asia thanks to the mash-up in the South China Sea and the so-called threat to Taiwan.

Yet another way to siphon off taxpayer dollars….just what our budget needs these days.

Whole NATO prepares to expand apparently so does Russia.

Russia will “develop” its military installations in Central Asian ally Kyrgyzstan, the Kremlin said Monday, following talks between the two countries’ leaders in Moscow.

“The heads of state emphasized the importance of strengthening the Kyrgyz Republic’s armed forces and developing Russian military facilities on its territory,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

Kyrgyzstan, a majority-Muslim country of nearly seven million people, hosts a Russian military base made up of an airfield, a naval installation on Lake Issyk-Kul and several other sites.

Russia and Kyrgyzstan, an ex-Soviet republic, are linked through a Moscow-led military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).

According to the statement released by the Kremlin, the two countries also expect to “deepen military and technical cooperation” as well as their economic and cultural relations in order to “reach a new level of integration.”

(thedefensepost.com)

Just when does this insanity end?  (That is rhetorical)

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Day After

I would like to state for all to read….I by no means think that Putin is anything other than a power mad prick and that Ukraine has every right to defend itself from invasion….I make this statement because according to several commenters seem to think that I may have sympathies for Putin and Russia….plus maybe now the questions asked will be answered and the inevitable support for Ukraine can be taken off the table….but we will see.

This post poses the question…..what will happen if and when a peace agreement is settled between Ukraine and Russia? (I know I know Putin is a prick….long live Zelensky….blah…blah….blah)

What does the situation hold when it is declared over?

Allies do not agree on what comes next….

In nearly a year of war in Ukraine, NATO allies have tried to present a united front.

“It is in our security interest to support Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told NPR last month at the organization’s headquarters in Brussels. “If you look across the alliance, there’s a strong, continued support on both sides of the Atlantic.”

That’s true. There are also some big divisions. The most obvious is disagreement over what kind of weapons to send Ukraine. But there are also differences over how the conflict should end and what role — if any — Russia should play in a post-war Europe.

In December, French President Emmanuel Macron made waves when he said NATO would eventually have to address Russia’s security concerns.

“How do we protect our allies and member states?” Macron said in an interview on French TV. “By giving guarantees for its own security to Russia the day it returns to the table.“

For NATO allies in Eastern Europe, the notion of making security pledges to a nation that has relentlessly shelled Ukrainian cities is stomach-churning. It’s also personal. They spent decades under Soviet domination.

“This kind of rhetoric coming from the Western leaders plays into the Kremlin’s narrative,” says Linas Kojala, who runs the Eastern Europe Studies Centre, a Lithuanian think tank.

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/23/1158152004/ukraine-russia-war-nato-europe

This situation brings me back to my question from day one….What does the US hope to get for its massive and blind support for Ukraine?  I believe Ukraine had that since 2014.

There is so much more to this conflict that anyone is willing to ask about for their views are given them by the MSM that they refuse to look any further.

As I have stated cracks in the situation are starting to form….

Over one year since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, there are growing differences between Washington and Kyiv on how to move forward in the conflict,POLITICO reported Sunday.

One issue is over Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been locked in battle for over eight months. Biden administration officials think Ukraine has expended too many resources defending Bakhmut and worry it will impact their ability to launch a counteroffensive this spring, but officials in Kyiv have decided to keep fighting for the city.

Another point of contention is over Crimea as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists they will retake the peninsula, which has been under Russian control since 2014 and is populated by people who are happy to be part of the Russian Federation.

US-Ukraine Unity Is Cracking Apart

Let us say the war ends….will Ukraine return to its former glory?  Before you answer think about other US involved wars…Haiti, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq….have any of them been improved by our involvement?

America’s twenty-year involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrated that nation building is often more expensive, prone to failure, and politically unpopular than expected at the outset. The State Department’s Afghan Stabilization Assistance Review acknowledged the difficulties nation building poses and found that there was no appetite in the American public for such ventures in the future. Yet today, less than two years after the Afghan withdrawal, the United States and its European allies are faced with a nation building exercise more expensive and at least as extensive as those of the past two decades.

NATO’s pursuit of the long war risks pushing Ukraine past a tipping point beyond which it’s economy may never recover. Revitalization of the Ukrainian economy would even have been difficult had the war ended in 2022. Continuation of the fighting and the introduction of more destructive and lethal Western arms risks making Ukraine a permanent economic vassal state of the United States and the EU.

Even the hawkish Rand Corporation in their review of the costs and benefits of the long war acknowledged the tradeoff between continued fighting and the additional cost and difficulty to revitalize the Ukrainian economy post-war.

Existing estimates of reconstruction costs are enormous. The National Recovery Plan that Ukraine’s National Recovery Council put forth in July 2022 carried a $750 billion price tag. In January 2023, Ukraine President Zelensky put the cost to rebuild Ukraine at $1 trillion. These estimates are several times that of the $150 billion in all forms of aid that the West has extended to date. They also exceed by a factor of five or more the size of the post-World War II Marshall Plan, $150-160 billion in today’s dollars, and the $145 billion that the U.S. government spent on rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan.

What if the West Can’t Put Ukraine Back Together?

Maybe Einstein was on to something.

And do you presume we will field most of the cost?

Did the US and its handlers really just make an addict to US funds?

From the time Ukraine declared independence on August 24, 1991, until the Maidan coup of February 2014, Ukraine was essentially a binational kleptocracy that used its position as a buffer state, particularly in its role as a transit hub for Russian natural gas to Europe, to the advantage of its kleptocratic elite—a coterie of deeply compromised politicians and former Soviet-era functionaries-turned-oligarchs

The tension between the Russian East and Galician West came to a head during the Maidan protests when then-president Viktor Yanukovych, a politician from eastern Ukraine, sought to leverage Ukraine’s unique geographic position during the country’s E.U. accession bid—a bid against which Russia, with long and deep economic ties to Ukraine, furiously objected.

Ukraine’s Endgame

Maybe that answers my original question of oh so many months….what will the return on investment for the US?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

So Much We Do Not Know

That is my thought on the Ukraine/Russia mash-up…..why?  That is an easy answer and it comes from the MSM…..

For instance….Take a look at the newest ‘aid’ package from the US….

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday that the US will send about $10 billion in additional economic assistance to Ukraine in the coming months.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the US has given Kyiv at least $13 billion in budgetary aid, economic assistance that goes directly to the Ukrainian government to fund government services, pensions, and healthcare.

“Our economic assistance is making Ukraine’s resistance possible by supporting the home front: funding critical public services and helping keep the government running,” Yellen said in India ahead of a meeting of G20 finance ministers.

“In the coming months, we expect to provide around $10 billion in additional economic support for Ukraine,” she said.

So far, the US has approved $113 billion in spending on the war, which includes military aid, training, funds for the Pentagon to replenish stockpiles and pay for troop deployments, and economic a

(antiwar.com)

Great deal….we cannot afford to fund our country but we have cash for some other nation.  Why is that?

According to the mainstream Western narrative, Vladimir Putin is an insatiable, Hitler-like expansionist who invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked land grab.

That is a convenient answer that will keep most of the public in the dark about why.

As I have asked many times before….why are there no answers to so many question?

The first question is the same one I have asked many many times….what does the US expect to be the return on our massive investment in the country?

This one never gets a good answer….usually it is some emotional response about the desire of Putin or his mental grasp on reality.

My next question is …..if the Ukrainian military is receiving advanced training from NATO and being rewarded with all this advanced weaponry like artillery, tanks, etc and if the Russian military is in disarray and badly trained….why is the conflict still raging? I mean the MSM gives us the glowing reports on the accomplishments of the Ukrainians….why is there not more progress beyond a basic stalemate?

Here is the situation…..

INTERACTIVE - WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN UKRAINE 219

All aid that Ukraine has received and yet they cannot re-take a small mining town of Bakhmut…..even Zelensky has said they may leave it for the Russians…..

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine would continue to defend the eastern Donetsk city of Bakmut but “not at any price,” signaling that Ukrainian forces might be considering a withdrawal.

“Yes, it is not a particularly big town. In fact, like many others in Donbas, (it’s been) devastated by the Russians. It is important for us to defend it, but not at any price and not for everyone to die,” Zelensky said in an interview published Sunday, according to Reuters.

Bakhmut’s pre-war population was about 70,000, but now Ukrainian officials estimate only about 5,000 people live in the city. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been locked in fighting over Bakhmut for months, and Ukraine has taken heavy casualties defending the area.

Ukrainian officials still maintain that they want to recapture all the territory Russia controls, including Crimea. Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said over the weekend that the war won’t be over until “our tanks will be parked on Moscow’s Red Square.”

(antiwar.com)

Not much change in the situation on the ground….why is that?

Any answers for my questions?

I am amazed just how deep the indifference of the American public actually goes.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”