After The Pandemic

I am an international relations geek….foreign policy and geopolitics……and this pandemic has made some changes to the world and the policies of Trump has made changes to the geopolitical landscape…..

What will geopolitics look like after we are done with this pandemic?

I read about five possible changes to the world after we have survived the Covid-19 virus…..

There is no single future until it happens, and any effort to envision geopolitics in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic must include a range of possible futures. I suggest five plausible futures in 2030, but obviously others can be imagined.

The end of the globalised liberal order. The world order established by the United States after World War II created a framework of institutions that led to a remarkable liberalisation of international trade and finance. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, this order was being challenged by the rise of China and the growth of populism in Western democracies. China has benefited from the order, but as its strategic weight grows, it increasingly insists on setting standards and rules. The US resists, institutions atrophy and appeals to sovereignty increase. The US remains outside the World Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement. Covid-19 contributes to the probability of this scenario by weakening the US ‘system manager’.

1930s-like authoritarian challenge.4

China-dominated world order.

A green international agenda.

More of the same

Geopolitics after the pandemic

If you bothered to read the article then please  which possible world will we be looking at?

For me it is a China dominated world order……and possibly “More the Same”……

More thoughts of things to come….https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/policy-briefs/what-comes-after-pandemic-predicting-world-come

12 leading foreign policy pros give their look as well……

How the World Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic

Any thoughts?

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Sanctions, What Are They Good For?

I see that Donald the Orange has once again used his favorite tool for international situations….sanctions.

This time it is sanctions used against Iran….again.

The US slapped new sanctions on Iran’s financial sector on Thursday in an attempt to further isolate the Islamic Republic’s economy. The new measures target 18 Iranian banks and subjects foreign, non-Iranian institutions to penalties for doing business with them.

“Today’s action to identify the financial sector and sanction 18 major Iranian banks reflects our commitment to stop illicit access to US dollars,” US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

The move comes after Washington’s European allies have been warning of the humanitarian consequences sanctions can have on Iran. The country is already facing an economic crisis due to previous US sanctions, which has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic.

European countries have been at odds with the Trump administration over its Iran policy. The US has been trying to enforce measures agreed to under the 2015 nuclear deal, an agreement the US withdrew from when it reimposed sanctions on Iran in 2018.

The US says the new sanctions do not apply to transactions that involve food or medical supplies. But the sanctions will discourage foreign banks from doing any business with Iran, including humanitarian deals. Sanctions imposed on Iran since 2018 also technically have exemptions for humanitarian goods, but have caused things like medicine shortages.

The new sanctions came just a day after Iran reported its highest number of daily deaths due to coronavirus. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif responded to the new sanctions on Twitter. “Amid Covid19 pandemic, US regime wants to blow up our remaining channels to pay for food & medicine,” Zarif wrote.

(antiwar.com)

I am not a big fan of sanctions…I believe they should be used only as a deterrent…..I dislike them for they usually hurt innocent people more than the intended recipients.

I have written my feelings about sanctions…..https://lobotero.com/2019/02/05/sanctions/

Sanctions are a cheap way to try and get the targeted nations to play ball with what the US wants…..but just how effective are they?

The imposition of sanctions is a relatively inexpensive political instrument compared to armed conflict, and is more popular with the public. However, when a sanctions regime is promulgated, it is impossible to determine the exact level of measures that must be taken in order for sanctions to have an impact on the policy of the sanctioned state.

In order to determine the effectiveness of a sanctions regime, we will examine nine factors that we believe to be decisive: the economic cost to the sanctioned state; the nature of its political regime; its political and economic stability; the relationship between the sanctioning state and the sanctioned state; the type of objective; international cohesion; the phenomenon of rallying around the flag; the reputation and image of the sanctioned state; and time.

https://theconversation.com/under-what-conditions-are-international-sanctions-effective-147309

I still do not think that sanctions accomplished their intended conclusion……and do more harm than good.

So are these sanctions really all that good?

The genesis of the maximum pressure campaign as articulated by former national security adviser John Bolton and hawkish think tanks like the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was founded upon a simplistic but appealing narrative: the Iranian Islamic regime has grand designs on the Middle East, including a kind of 21st century colonization that would swallow the region whole. Because this narrative was already fully entrenched in Washington’s security and intelligence establishment, it was a relatively easy one to sell to an administration staffed to the gills with Iran hawks. 

The main theoretical assumption underlying the maximum pressure campaign was as shallow as it was tempting: pummel the Iranian economy with so many restrictions that the ayatollahs would have no choice but to crawl back to the table on their hands and knees and negotiate a new agreement on Washington’s terms. 

However, knowing that caving to U.S. demands would leave it highly vulnerable to similar tactics in the future, the Iranian government has held firm to its original position: if the U.S. wants to talk about a bigger and better deal, it must first re-enter the original Joint Plan of Comprehensive Action (JCPOA) and compensate Tehran for its losses. The Trump administration, as can be expected, finds Iran’s demands absurd, if not insulting. Indeed, as of this writing, the White House, State Department, and Treasury are actively debating blacklisting what is left of the entire Iranian financial sector and thereby severing it from the international community. 

Punishing Iran wasn’t all it was cracked up to be

Really?  We have been punishing Iran for over 40 years and what has that lead to?

Thoughts?

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Army Of Sexy Soldiers….

I begin my weekend with a sincere thank you for the storm that decided to give the Mississippi Coast a break….but the same cannot be said for Louisiana….please keep their plight in your minds and help if you can.

Does anyone remember Qaddafi’s body guards?

Gaddafi\'s female bodyguards

Since the early 1970s, an eye-popping cadre of 30 women have shadowed and at times taken bullets for the man who is today, at 68, the Arab world’s most senior dictator.

The women pledge oaths of loyalty to Gaddafi, including a vow of virginity, according to reports. The female bodyguards are not just for show. In 1998, one died and two were injured when Gaddafi was attacked.

It’s a dangerous job and yet for most of the four decades that they have stood by Gaddafi, they have seemed as much his statement on style and gender politics as his security detail.

https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-03-16/photos-gaddafis-female-bodyguards

Sorry I shall get to the point……I bring up this piece of nostalgia because Qaddafi was not the only one to use the idea of these ladies……..

Seems the new king of Thailand, Rama X, has an army of sex soldiers….

Maha Vajiralongkorn, the 68-year-old king of Thailand, better known as Rama X, sits atop both a throne and the upper-most floor of a luxury hotel in a tiny ski village in the alpine regions of Germany. He fled there back in April. It’s his quarantine pad. (The king was granted a special dispensation by local German authorities that allowed the hotel to remain open, since all others in the town are closed due to COVID.) And because he’s royalty, he’s brought a private army with him. 

But this army is no conventional fighting force. It’s a unit of 20 “sex soldiers.” They’ve been given the honorary title of “Sirivajirabhakdi,” which means “The Beautiful One Who Will Be Faithful to the King,” per Max Boddeker, a reporter at the German newspaper Bild

For the women called to serve their king, it’s both an honor and a privilege. Yet, in a society where women are subservient to men, honorable exploitation doesn’t seem all that honorable, just exploitative. As journalist and Thailand expert, Andrew MacGregor Marshall explains, “The concubines make a big gamble — with the hope of winning big. Some are happy to join and are hoping for riches and success for themselves and their families. … Others give in to the king’s pressure to join over fear of the consequences if they refuse.”

https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/with-an-army-of-sex-soldiers-a-thai-king-makes-his-great-escape

Have you now heard it all?

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Will Biden’s Foreign Policy Make A Difference?

Easy answer is…of course not.

Our foreign policy of endless worthless wars will continue under Biden and his policies.

I have said many times that foreign policy is one of those issues that will draw me to a candidate….so far Biden has no draw for me.

Americans have opinions on foreign policy it is just not reported by the MSM…..

As the 2020 presidential campaigns hit the home stretch, the Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF) has sought to understand voters’ preferences for America’s role in the world.

This is the third consecutive year EGF has conducted a national survey to investigate the foreign policy preferences of the American public. More than seventeen hundred Americans were asked detailed questions about hot button national security and foreign policy topics. The following observations are included among the study’s findings:

Americans favor a less militarized foreign policy

Americans want to increase diplomatic engagement with the world

They also want less military intervention

https://egfound.org/stories/independent-america/diplomacy-and-restraint

Afghanistan will continue…Iraq will continue……the adventurism into Syria will continue…..in other words the foreign policy under Biden will show little change than that under Trump.

But the larger question remains…..

The “left” rationalization for collaborating with the neoliberal wing of the democrat party is premised on the argument that a win for the national Democrat candidate translates into better possible policy outcomes for the “people” and nation. More importantly though, they assert, Trump’s defeat will alter the rightist trajectory of U.S. politics away from what they refer to as Trump’s neofascist inclinations.

I will not attempt to address this argument here. I have dealt with this cartoonish and idealistic conception of fascism in other places. I have also raised questions with my friends in the left regarding the basis of their confidence that Biden and the neoliberal class forces he represents are in possession of any ideas or policies that will address the irreconcilable contradictions of the late stage of monopoly capitalism known as neoliberalism.

Of course, on this last question, the response from my materialist friends is sentimental gibberish about holding someone’s feet to the fire.

Here I just want to briefly focus on the very simple question that many in the global South are raising in connection with the upcoming U.S. elections. And that is, if Biden wins, what might the people of the global South expect from a Biden Administration? To examine that question, I believe that the Afghanistan situation and the process for arriving at the current peace talks between the Taliban, the Afghanistan government and the United States offers some useful indicators for how that question might be answered.

Will a Biden Foreign Policy Make a Difference for the World?

So the answer for me is that the main issues will remain the same with Joe Biden.

Further Reading:

Download Full White Paper (as PDF)View the 2018 report (archived)View the 2019 report (archived)

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Once Around The Middle East

My regulars know that I am a person who studied the Middle East in college and worked in the region for years after college and the military…..

But these days with protests and pandemic and elections not much attention is being paid to the Middle East…..and I tried to rectify that oversight on the media’s part.

There are changes taking place in the Middle East…

Yet there is a real historic change going on in the Middle East and north Africa, though it has nothing to do with the relationship between Israel and the Arabs. It is a transformation that has been speeded up by the coronavirus cataclysm and will radically change the politics of the Middle East.

The era characterised by the power of the oil states is ending. When the price of oil soared in the aftermath of the 1973 war, countries from Iran to Algeria, mostly though not exclusively Arab, enjoyed an extraordinary accretion of wealth. Their elites could buy everything from Leonardo da Vinci paintings to Park Lane hotels. Their rulers had the money to keep less well-funded governments in power or to put them out of business by funding their opponent.

https://www.unz.com/pcockburn/there-is-a-historic-change-taking-place-in-the-middle-east/

Then there is that deal between UAE and Israel…..as if this was the whole answer for the region…..BS!

The leaders involved — Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed of the UAE, U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — deserve much credit for sealing the agreement, and they stand atop a long list of winners. Indeed, the Netanyahu doctrine comes out the biggest winner of all. In its outline, that doctrine holds that peace between Israel and the Palestinians must go through the rest of the Arab world first, rather than waiting for Palestinian approval. Israel is done taking risks and making concessions for an elusive peace that hovers on the horizon, always just out of reach.  

Opposite a long list of winners stands only one real loser. It is not the Palestinians, or at least it doesn’t have to be. Rather, it is the failed belief that Israeli-Palestinian peace is the key to regional stability, and that it is Israel that must be pressured to achieve that peace through territorial and other risky concessions.  

https://www.realclearworld.com/2020/08/20/a_big_deal_in_the_middle_east_574797.html

Nothing about this deal strengthens the security in the region….all it does is make Israel a bigger target.

But all that must wait for the election and pandemic to be over and counted…..

But it appears as if the Middle East does not matter as much as it use to…….

Joe Biden has made clear that he wants America “back at the head of the table” to “rally the free world to meet the challenges facing the world today. … No other nation has that capacity.”

While it is essential for the United States to restore U.S. leadership and credibility on issues that are vital to national security and prosperity—most notably, global health cooperation, combating global warming and pushing back on China’s predatory trade practices—there is one region that simply isn’t as important as it used to be: the Middle East.

No matter who wins the White House in November, it is important to recognize that in recent years, the turbulent Middle East—where more often than not American ideas go to die—has become decidedly less important to American foreign policy and to our interests. The change reflects not only new regional dynamics and U.S. domestic priorities but the changing nature of American interests there.

American leadership and exceptionalism cannot fix a broken Middle East or play a major role in leading it to a better future. The U.S. still has interests there to protect but America needs to be realistic, prudent and disciplined in how it secures them. If we can learn to act with restraint, we’ll avoid the overreach, arrogance and self-inflicted wounds that have caused us and many others so much unnecessary misery and trouble.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/03/the-middle-east-just-doesnt-matter-as-much-any-longer-407820

But none of this means that US will walk away from the Middle East or its conflicts it feeds.

And the overall prognosis for the region is not all that bright…..

We have come a long way from the hopes associated with Camp David, “Globalism,” “the end of history,” the end of the First Gulf War in 1991, and the first year of the Arab Spring in 2011 – almost all of it in the wrong direction. From a “realist” perspective, the greater Middle East has deteriorated over time, and in ways that go far beyond its conflicts, competing ideologies and faiths, and the petty power struggles of its ruling elites.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/greater-middle-east-arab-spring-axis-failed-states

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A Trip Around China

These days Americans are ate up with this candidate or that and seem to have little time to worry about the foe that the media has been warning us about….not Russia….but China……so in doing my good deed I will take my reader on a ‘trip around China’…..

There is always a prediction that includes China in some way…..this one is 20 years down the road….

The Pentagon has offered a new report on China warning that by mid-century China may catch or even surpass the US military in capabilities.  They anticipate a “world-class” military by 2049.

This is one of those all-too-common Pentagon reports, which since the tensions began raising between the US and China have been coming nearly daily, playing up China as a growing threat that needs to be the focus of US military policy.

China doesn’t see things that way, faulting the US for misinterpreting China’s defense policy and promised a correction at a future date. China sees the US assumption as based on Cold War thinking about the situation.

The US reports all envision China getting a much bigger military in the future, but it is unclear if they really intend to spend so much on military assets as to compete with the US on a global scale, or will just keep working on being able to contest their immediate vicinity.

(antiwar.com)

China has its problems first with darn pesky Tibetans and then the Uighurs….but these people are not the only problems that China faces socially…..

Unlike the Tibetans or Muslim Uyghurs of its far west, China’s ethnic Mongol population has long been seen as pacified, content, and well-assimilated, fulfilling the stereotype of a “model minority” in a country bubbling with ethnic tensions.

In recent days, however, Mongols in China, most of whom reside in the vast Inner Mongolia autonomous region south of Mongolia proper, have vigorously protested an attempt by the government to curtail the teaching of Mongolian in schools, including shifting to using national Chinese-language textbooks instead of locally developed Mongolian versions. In short, Chinese will replace Mongolian as the main medium of teaching for classes such as math and science, while Mongolian lessons will continue. Authorities are cracking down, including posting photos online of people who attended the protests and offering cash rewards for tips.

https://qz.com/1899397/inner-mongolians-in-china-rise-up-against-language-suppression/

How many times this year have you heard the the Chinese are an economic threat?

Many?  But are they a threat?

It seems that more and more Americans, pro-Trump or not, are concluding that trade with China is a threat to the United States. The objections are typically one of three: (1) freer trade with China after it was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 has cost U.S. manufacturing jobs; (2) the Chinese have thrived by stealing our intellectual property (IP) and that has made Americans worse off; and (3) the Chinese will use some of their progress in cybertechnology to engage in surveillance of Americans.

Each of these objections contains a kernel of truth. But the objections together are not nearly enough to offset the huge gains that Americans reap from freer trade with China.

Perhaps it is best to start by considering the economists’ case for free trade: Each country produces the goods and services in which it has a comparative advantage and trades those to other countries, which, in turn, produce goods and services for which they have a comparative advantage. In that way both countries do better than they would do if they didn’t trade. Comparative advantage, by the way, is jargon for “lower cost.”

https://www.hoover.org/research/china-economic-threat

But with all the threats that China poses to the US is for naught because their economy…….it does not have a bright future….their economy that is……

The five largest Chinese banks posted at least 10 percent profit declines for the first half of the year. These poor results, the result of increased provisions for bad loans, were the biggest profit drops in at least a decade. As a CNBC headline put it, “China’s Mega Banks Lost Billions of Dollars in Profit as Bad Loans Rise During Coronavirus Pandemic.”

The profit drops are a warning of long-term troubles, especially because, in all probability, the banks are understating the severity of bad loan problems. Moreover, the outlook for China’s banks is gloomy because the outlook for China’s economy is gloomy.

 

These five Chinese institutions—the Big Four of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China plus the Bank of Communications—are struggling. The essential problem is that the Chinese economy—like the economies of almost all other countries—was flattened by efforts to control the coronavirus. Gross domestic product contracted 6.8% year-on-year in the first calendar quarter of this year, according to the official National Bureau of Statistics. In reality, it was down about twice that.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china%E2%80%99s-mega-banks-are-mega-trouble%E2%80%94and-so-chinese-economy-%C2%A0-168330

Plus I heard that the Chinese are considering dumping US holdings…..interesting…..but who will scoop them up?

There you have a trip around China…..

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The Issue Of Foreign Policy

I have said there are a few policy and issues that should be foremost in the voter’s mind before they cast that ballot. One is economics and the other (to my mind) is foreign policy.

For instance the foreign policy of our present president.(I am not a fan of his policies)…..I am not alone in criticism of Trump’s policies…….

The majority of senior GOP national security figures denounced Trump, even after he became their party’s nominee. Thanks at least in part to his foreign policy heresies, Trump defeated over a dozen other Republican candidates, broke both the Bush and Clinton dynasties, and won perhaps the most shocking presidential election in American history.

For advocates of foreign policy realism and restraint, November 8, 2016 was the high point. But both at home and abroad, Trump has since led and governed as a mostly conventional Republican, albeit with an extra dollop of incompetence and chaos. America First has become little more than a slogan and an attitude. With a few important exceptions, the reality of President Trump has not matched the rhetoric of candidate Trump.

Grading Trump’s foreign policy

For decades, long before the Trump years, this country’s foreign policy has been one of endless wars and subterfuge….

As the United States sinks deeper into a multi-faceted global crisis that no politician seems able or even willing to address, one hears more and more often demands for radical change in who runs the country and to what end. Of course, Donald J. Trump offered such a dramatic shift in priorities four years ago, but he has been unable to deliver due to his own inability to execute and the ill-conceived machinations of those whom he has chosen as advisers. The Democrats for their part are offering little beyond a repeat of their 2016 pander to grievance groups in an effort to cobble together an unassailable majority based on buying off the party’s various constituencies.

But there is one area where change could come dramatically if either party were actually motivated to do something that would truly benefit the American people, and that is in the area of foreign and national security policy where the president has considerable power to set priorities and redirect both the State and Defense Departments. Unfortunately, foreign and national security policy is almost never discussed during the presidential campaigns and this time would already appear to be no exception. That means that the one thing that is a constant amidst all the smoke and mirrors is the continued bellicosity of both parties on the world stage.

https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/lets-talk-u-s-foreign-policy-it-is-the-root-cause-of-many-evils/

As the election approaches there is one thing to be certain…..no matter which candidate, Biden or Trump, wins will the foreign policy change in the coming years…..

These are not merely grifters or desperate bids for attention by unscrupulous and avaricious Beltway swamp creatures. Though there are those too: the so-called Lincoln Project, helmed by neocon operative Rick Wilson, which is an outside group of Republicans (including former RNC Chair Michael Steele) devoted to defeating Trump in November.

As the historian David Sessions recently tweeted, “Basically nobody in liberal circles is taking seriously the consequences of the fact that the exiled cadre of the Republican Party are building a massive power base in the Democratic Party.”

The merger between Democrats and neocons is not merely confined to the world of electoral politics; it is already affecting policy as well. Over the summer, in response to the New York Times’ dubious “Russia bounty” story, Democratic Congressman Jason Crow teamed up with Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney (daughter of the former vice president) to prohibit the president from withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. Republicans and Democrats in the Senate and the House Armed Services Committee also collaborated to pass an amendment that imposed restrictions on Trump’s plan to withdraw troops from Germany, showing, if nothing else, that the bipartisan commitment to the new cold war is alive and well.

https://braveneweurope.com/marshall-auerback-james-carden-the-rotten-alliance-of-liberals-and-neocons-will-likely-shape-u-s-foreign-policy-for-years-to-come

Trump has given the nation’s voters lots of lip service about these endless wars…..now ask just which one of these wars has he actually ended?

These days the U.S. is the world’s most militaristic power, threatening, droning, bombing, invading, and occupying far more countries than any other nation. Operating on the well-established principle that might makes right, American presidents routinely intervene with neither domestic nor international legal warrant, as in Syria today. Washington also routinely sanctions allies as well as adversaries, insisting that every person in every nation follow US dictates.

Today America is lawlessly engaged in low-level aggression against Syria. US troops have occupied much of the north, protecting the Kurdish zone known as Rojava, seized Syrian oilfields in the east, for both politics and profit, and cut Syrian roads, including the main route to Baghdad, Iraq – based solely on the president’s illegal orders. Imagine the Syrian army invading Montana, guarding a secessionist ministate, occupying the state’s shale oil fields, and blocking highways heading east toward Washington, D.C.

The US also is engaged in a dangerous minuet with Turkey, which occupies part of Rojava. Ankara views Syrian Kurds as a threat and twice invaded northern Syria, including last fall after pushing America aside. Turkey established the “Syrian Interim Government,” dominated by radical Islamist insurgents who have murdered and ethnically cleansed Kurdish inhabitants. The Pentagon admitted that Turkey “actively supports several hardline Islamist militias and groups ‘engaged in violent criminal activities’.”

When Will Donald Trump Stop Even One Endless War?

To answer my question…Trump has not ended any of our endless wars…..so any promises to do so now is nothing but a campaign promise to be ignored once re-elected……

Never let it be said that I bitch but offer NO solutions……I wrote my thoughts on my op-ed blog, Gulf South Free Press…….https://gulfsouthfreepress.wordpress.com/2020/03/15/a-new-foreign-policy/

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23 August 1939

On this day in history was a turning point for Europe only a mere 20 years after the end of the Great War (WW1)…..this situation is all but forgotten unless you watch the Hitler Channel….but most Americans have NO idea what this “Pact” actually meant or did……

On this day in 1939 Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed a non-aggression pact….called the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact…..

On August 23, 1939, representatives from Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union met and signed the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact (also called the German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact and the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact), a mutual promise made by the two leaders guaranteeing that neither would attack the other.

With the imminence of World War II becoming ever clearer, signing the pact guaranteed Germany protection against the necessity of fighting a two-front war. The Soviet Union was awarded land in return, including parts of Poland and the Baltic States, as part of a secret addendum.

The pact was broken when Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union less than two years later, on June 22, 1941.

https://www.thoughtco.com/nazi-soviet-non-aggression-pact-1779994

Vyacheslav Molotov, Russian foreign minister, signs the non-aggression pact negotiated between Soviet Russia and Germany, at the Kremlin, Moscow. Standing behind him is his German counterpart Joachim von Ribbentrop (left), and Joseph Stalin (centre), 23 August 1939.

Germany and the Soviet Union have agreed to conclude a pact of non-aggression. The surprising announcement was made in Berlin last night by the official German news agency. It was added that Herr von Ribbentrop, the German Foreign Minister, is flying to Moscow to-morrow to complete the negotiations. Early this morning the Russian Tass Agency issued a similar statement.

The news was completely unexpected. There had been rumours in Berlin of a meeting at Berchtesgaden yesterday between Herr Hitler, Herr von Ribbentrop, and Her von Papen, who had recently visited Moscow, but that was all.

The decision to sign the pact is announced only the day after the signing of a commercial treaty was made known. The Russian press yesterday, suddenly changing its tone towards Germany, warmly welcomed the commercial agreement as being likely to lead to better political relations – “eventually,” they said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/from-the-archive-blog/2019/jul/24/molotov-ribbentrop-pact-germany-russia-1939

Neither party had any intention of keeping this pact…Poland was the prize that both wanted in their spheres….

This was an important event that leads up to September 1939 and the invasion of Poland.

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The Trumpian Foreign Policy

I admit it…..foreign policy is one of the major areas that I use to pick which candidate will get my vote….

Trump has had some good moves in my opinion….wanting to bring our troops home is an excellent start to possibly ending our many wars. Then his withdrawal from most international treaties I do not agree with on any level……

To me he does not have a solid foreign policy…it is more like a hit and miss one…..a policy of uncertainty…..

I recently read a paper from a grad student that covers this uncertainty…..

Donald Trump’s foreign policy is a matter of continuous controversy and intense scrutiny. This interest stems from the fact that the arena of international relations and the field of American foreign policy are witnessing significant alterations as a consequence of the actions of the Trump administration. The objectives of this article are to identify the defining characteristics of Trump’s foreign policy and to assess their faithfulness to traditional and modern-era foreign policy schools. The analysis puts the nature of Pax-Americana and US exceptionalism face to face with the assumption of a post-American world. It also examines the ‘Trump Doctrine’ as what Trump himself described as a ‘brand new’ foreign policy (Curran). Thus, this article reflects on the extent to which Trump is establishing a new school of American foreign policy.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Doctrine of Uncertainty

While I do not agree with much in the Trumpian foreign policy…..I would like to give a look at what a Russian “research” has to say about this foreign policy……

Trump routinely talks up both sides of every issue, and the corporate media still judge him more by what he says (and tweets) than by his actual policies. So it isn’t surprising that he is still trying to confuse the public about his aggressive war policy. But Trump has been in office for nearly three and a half years, and he now has a record on war and peace that we can examine.

Such an examination makes one thing very clear: Trump has come closer to starting new wars with North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran than to ending any of the wars he inherited from Obama. His first-term record shows Trump to be just another warmonger in chief.

Trump’s Record on Foreign Policy: Lost Wars, New Conflicts and Broken Promises

I agree with the student that wrote about the uncertainty…..while some of his promises were good to hear….his actions do not give me confidence in his ability to deal with international situations.

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Biden’s Foreign Policy

Another week of depending on drafts for I have 2 eye appointments and one surgery this week….

Full disclosure….as an international relations geek I use foreign policy as a ruler to measure the people running for president.

I have covered and written about what I think of Trump’s foreign policy….not very flattering in my opinion.

Now on to the Dems top candidate these days….I have written what I think about Uncle Joe’s policies…..read my thoughts here…..https://lobotero.com/2020/04/23/bidens-foreign-policy/

For his run against Trump in November Biden has put together his foreign policy team…..and that team of “experts” have gotten filthy rich with their pro war dealings……

They had been public servants their whole careers. But when Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, two departing Obama officials were anxious for work. Trump’s win had caught them by surprise.

Sergio Aguirre and Nitin Chadda had reached the most elite quarters of U.S. foreign policy. Aguirre had started out of school as a fellow in the White House and a decade later had become chief of staff to U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power. Chadda, who joined the Pentagon out of college as a speechwriter, had become a key adviser to Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in even less time. Now, Chadda had a long-shot idea.

They turned to an industry of power-brokering little known outside the capital: strategic consultancies. Retiring leaders often open firms bearing their names: Madeleine Albright has one, as do Condoleezza Rice and former Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen. Their strategic consultancies tend to blur corporate and governmental roles. This obscure corner of Washington is critical to understanding how a President Joe Biden would conduct foreign policy. He has been picking top advisers from this shadowy world.

https://prospect.org/world/how-biden-foreign-policy-team-got-rich/

This illustrates what a Biden presidency will look like if he gets elected…..it will be the same as Clinton, Bush, Obama….pro war and pro M-IC……money will dictate the policies.

Not something that would lead me to support this man for the presidency……any promises about ending this war or that is idle talk and a promise he will not keep.

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“lego ergo scribo”