Some Election Predictions

Don’t worry I am not going to offer some world ending prediction….no this is the prediction for the coming election…..

85 days and counting……

Will it be Biden (hopefully) or will it be Trump (a sad situation) that will win the hearts and minds of the American public?

First this is NOT my prediction…I gave up being a seer to write a blog……

It’s possible we may not know the results of the presidential race for weeks after Nov. 3 … or this very moment, if you want to believe Allan Lichtman’s prediction. And you’d have good reason to. The New York Times calls him “the Nostradamus of presidential elections”—he’s called them correctly for four decades—and in a video op-ed for the paper, he explains why Joe Biden is going to take it. Lichtman took 120 years of US elections, from 1860 to 1980, and, along with a Russian earthquake expert, developed what he has dubbed “The Keys to the White House.” He explains: “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.”

The way his 13 keys work is that each one is answered true or false. “True” indicates the White House party will retain power. Six or more false answers equal a political earthquake. Some of the keys are pretty basic political factors: Key No. 2, for instance: “There is no primary contest for the White House party.” True. Others are economic, like Key No. 6: “Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms.” False. Others are societal, like No. 8: “There is no social unrest during the term.” False. Others are geopolitical, as with No. 10: “The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad.” True “so far,” per Lichtman. And then there’s the nature of the candidates. No. 13: “The challenger is uncharismatic.” True, says Lichtman of Biden. His tally? Seven falses, meaning Biden has it—at least, according to the Keys.

There is more predictions about 2020 election…..

Of all the predictions about how Election 2020 might unfold, one seems safest of all: The night of November 3 is going to be a mess. Media writer Ben Smith of the New York Times writes that this year’s election night is going to be far different than any in modern history because of the extra time needed to count mail-in ballots or votes otherwise not cast in traditional Election Day fashion. After interviewing TV election analysts, execs, and hosts, he found that some are shrugging off the problem. But “I was alarmed by the near panic among some of the people paying the closest attention—the analysts and producers trying, and often failing, to get answers from state election officials about how and when they will count the ballots and report results.” The gist of his analysis is that Americans are not properly prepared for how this is going to play out.

“I don’t think it’s penetrated enough in the average viewer’s mind that there’s not going to be an election night,” says Brandon Finnigan of Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to media outlets. “The usual razzmatazz of a panel sitting around discussing election results—that’s dead.” There’s nothing inherently wrong with taking days or weeks to count ballots, writes Smith, but the format TV networks use to deliver results runs counter to that process. Drawing on advice from political scientists, Smith suggests the media should embark on an extensive educational campaign to start schooling people on the need for patience. Ditching traditional election-night features such as “percent of precincts reporting” might help, too, given that mail-in ballots might still be sitting in warehouses. Read the full analysis.

Any thoughts you would like to share?

I am listening!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

That Short List

For months now the media has been trying to drum up a story out of the possible VP pick of Biden….

We have Warren, Harris, Rice and on and on…….and a few virtual unknowns……

And now the media has something to talk……

Joe Biden’s announcement of his running mate has to come soon—the Democratic convention gets underway in less than two weeks on August 17. As the vetting process winds down, Biden has dropped a few hints, including that four Black women are on his short list. But now the buzz is focusing on two of those women in particular, Sen. Kamala Harris and Susan Rice, former UN ambassador and national security adviser to President Obama. Coverage, including a controversial post about the process by a Virginia mayor:

  • Down to two: Axios, while tacking on the caveat that only Biden himself knows for sure, reports that the choice has indeed narrowed to Harris and Rice. It has another Black woman, Rep. Karen Bass, in third. The piece notes that the selection of Rice would come with a bonus—”the enthusiastic presence of both Barack and Michelle Obama on the campaign trial.”
  • Ditto: Conservative pundit Ben Shapiro also has Harris and Rice as the final candidates, per Fox News.
  • GOP preference? Politico reports the Trump campaign wants Biden to pick Rice. “She is absolutely our No. 1 draft pick,” says an anonymous Trump campaign official. The idea is that she will fire up the GOP base by become a “‘deep state’ villain,” writes Anita Kumar. For example, expect the Benghazi controversy to be fully revetted, though Axios notes that Rice would try to mitigate that by raising the issue herself and explaining that misstatements she made were the result of faulty intelligence she received.
  • Tucker, too: Fox’s Tucker Carlson opened his Monday show with a rant against Rice, and he also is out with an opinion piece against her. He sees Rice as the top candidate at the moment.
  • Mayor’s post: Amid the widespread speculation that Biden will pick a Black woman, the mayor of Luray, Virginia, reposted a meme on Facebook reading, “Joe Biden has just announced Aunt Jemima as his VP pick.” The backlash has been furious, but Barry Presgraves tells the Page Valley News, “Hell, no, I’m not resigning.” He deleted the post and says he doesn’t understand the “fuss” it’s caused. “I saw it last week, and I thought it was funny,” he says. City council members may censure him or ask him to resign. The meme also plays off the news that Quaker Oats was ditching its Aunt Jemima log
  • And sexism: The AP has a story about how all the female candidates are being subjected to stereotypes: For example, Rice has been told she doesn’t smile enough, and Harris has been faulted for being too ambitious and not apologetic enough for earlier attacks on Biden. “The fact is that although we’ve come really far in the last 100 years, we haven’t come far enough for women candidates to be treated with the same level of decency as the male candidates are,” says Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Committee chair.

Now the drama builds around those two…..

Rice would give Trump and the RNC lots of ammo because of her involvement in the Benghazi thingy…..

Harris is a screaming centrist and would be the better pick of the two in question…IMHO.

Why?  Biden is a screaming centrist and the closest he ever got to progressive was by using the word in is political lies.

If it were me I would pick someone that the media did not know about……give them something to do …….

I know I have been really critical about Biden and his campaign….I will be explaining why in upcoming posts about me and my thought processes.

Watch This Blog!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Your Mail-In Vote

There is a problem these days….voting will be a bitch and the solution that many have offered is that of a mail-in vote and of course that will not fit into the plan for Trump….he and his ilk are saying that a mail-in vote would be riddled with fraud.

He much prefers absentee voting.

Think about that for a minute.

Your ballot comes in the mail ……you fill it out…..then you mail it in…..

Do I need to let that sink in?

Let me help and explain a bit about mail-in voting…..

Vote-by-mail, mail-in voting, and absentee voting are essentially the same thing. We use these terms interchangeably. They all mean that a voter is submitting a ballot through the mail.

The process is fairly standard. First, a voter needs to apply for an absentee ballot if one has not automatically been sent in the mail. Once local election officials receive the request for an absentee ballot, the ballot is mailed to the voter. 

Lucille Wenegieme, spokesperson for the National Vote at Home Institute, told WhoWhatWhy that offering voters the opportunity to cast a mail-in ballot provides a sense of confidence because the voter has more time with the ballot.

“When I talk to somebody about vote-by-mail, somebody that hasn’t done it for the first time, I like to tell them that it really offers a level of convenience,” Wenegieme said.

America Decides 2020: Voting by Mail, Explained

Since this idea during the pandemic is gaining in popularity what can be done to thwart this process?

Slow the mail down!

Mail is piling up at post offices, and employees are worried that November election ballots could be delayed. The backlog has been building since the new postmaster general and President Trump ally, Louis DeJoy, enacted changes at the Postal Service this month that were billed as needed to cut costs, the Washington Post reports. They include turning off mail sorting machines early, requiring letter carriers to leave without some mail to avoid making extra trips or late deliveries, and ending overtime pay. Trump, who has called the post office “a joke,” this week floated the idea of postponing the election rather than having widespread voting by mail. He cited the potential for fraud, but workers and union officials say the new changes could at least bring chaos. “I’m actually terrified to see election season under the new procedure,” said a union local president in New York.

DeJoy took office in June. In announcing the changes, Vice points out, he said the Postal Service will trade delayed mail in exchange for saving money. A spokesman said the changes are necessary after decades of financial problems. Any delays are temporary, he said, adding that DeJoy was appointed by a bipartisan board and doesn’t take his marching orders from Trump. But a union president representing 200,000 workers and retirees put his objections on the record in a meeting with DeJoy. “It’s wrong for the people of the country, it’s wrong for the public Postal Service,” he said. “It drives away business and revenue.” Four Democratic senators asked DeJoy for more information this week, saying his lack of transparency “only increases concerns that service compromises will grow in advance of the election.”

This is an obvious attempt to try and alter the outcome of the election……

And the president just cannot let this go…….

President Trump escalated his criticism of mail balloting in a big way on Monday, first in a press conference in which he hinted at using executive action to curtail it and also in an interview. Coverage:

  • Two months: In a sit-down with Axios on HBO, Trump said widespread mail voting would lead to chaos. “You know, you could have a case where this election won’t be decided on the evening of Nov. 3. This election could be decided two months later.” He added: “Lots of things will happen during that period of time. Especially when you have tight margins. Lots of things can happen. There’s never been anything like this.”
  • Executive order: At his White House press conference Monday, Trump said some kind of executive order on mail voting is within his authority. “I have the right to do it,” he said, per Politico. “We haven’t gotten there yet, we’ll see what happens.” Trump didn’t provide specifics about what is under consideration.
  • Nevada: Trump also said the White House would sue Nevada after lawmakers there passed a bill to provide mail ballots to every voter ahead of the election, reports Reuters. “We will be suing in Nevada. And that’s already been taken care of, we’ll probably file something tomorrow,” he said.
  • The evidence: Trump continued to assert that mail balloting is vulnerable to fraud, while news stories (including this one at the AP) continue to assert that he has no evidence to back that up. Politico calls cases of fraud “exceedingly rare” but adds that mail voting might have higher risks if proper safeguards are not in place.
  • A GOP worry: The Washington Post reports that GOP leaders around the US are worried about an unintended consequence of the president’s campaign against mail voting—his supporters are refusing to embrace the practice. “As a result, state and local Republicans across the country fear they are falling dramatically behind in a practice that is expected to be key to voter turnout this year,” write Amy Gardner and Josh Dawsey.

This bit of theater has a new twist….

President Trump is OK with voting by mail … in one state, at least. “Whether you call it Vote by Mail or Absentee Voting, in Florida the election system is Safe and Secure, Tried and True,” he tweeted Tuesday. “Florida’s Voting system has been cleaned up (we defeated Democrats attempts at change), so in Florida I encourage all to request a Ballot & Vote by Mail! #MAGA.” It’s quite a shift from his typical stance on mail-in voting, which he has for weeks claimed will lead to voter fraud—CNN calls it “one of the most epic reversals in recent political history.” But he has said in the past that he is OK with absentee voting, and a spokesperson for his campaign said that’s what the tweet reflects: “What most states call ‘absentee voting’ has long been termed ‘vote-by-mail’ in Florida—it’s been that way for years, and it works,” she said.

“President Trump is fighting to make sure every valid vote counts—the exact opposite of what’s happened in New York’s and California’s train wreck primaries, where we saw Democrats’ rush to implement a faulty universal vote-by-mail system,” the campaign statement continued. At a White House briefing later Tuesday, press secretary Kayleigh McEnany added that Trump has “been unmistakably clear that when you have this mass mail-out voting like what Nevada wants to do, the consequences are real.” (PolitiFact said last month that “there is no objective difference between absentee voting and voting by mail.”) The Hill notes that some on the right are concerned Trump’s harping on mail-in voting will end up suppressing the GOP vote, and adds that polls show Trump lagging behind Biden in Florida, a battleground state.

Does anyone else see how silly this whole thing is?

Not worry it can all end soon….but only if you VOTE!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

2020 Voting Will Begin In August

We are closer than you might think to the general election…..and with all the pandemic/protests the media has pretty much ignored the election….so IST has decided to help out when we can…..

This Voters’ Calendar will stretch our civic attention span to make high-turnout elections a task that mere mortals can perform, not a superhuman feat that tests the endurance of even the most dedicated voters.

AUGUST is Check Your Registration month. Starting August 5 (90 days from November 3rd), it is federally illegal to make any new purges from the voter rolls. You can add registrations – you just can’t eliminate them. Therefore, starting August 5, check your registration on your Secretary of State or county election websites. (Many URLS can get you there: Vote411.org is a good place to start. Another is the U.S. Vote Foundation, which has contact information for every local election official. Engage directly with those who will be counting your vote.)

When you find your name and address are correct take a screenshot and file it with time and date. (Google “How do I take a screenshot with my phone?”) Update any incorrect information. Only take the screenshot when it’s in order. If you don’t find yourself, re-register. Do this for voters who don’t have online access—starting with your family. 

SEPTEMBER is Order Your Mail Ballot month. Maybe you think you won’t need a mail-in ballot. But what if you do? A delayed application could get caught in a paperwork tsunami (one lesson from recent primaries.) If you don’t get a mail ballot you’ve requested, complications will ensue. Order that mail-in ballot as soon as your registration is correct.

Follow the directions carefully. Some states let you apply entirely online. Others require that you print out the application, fill it in, sign it, and mail it. Unfortunately, every state has slightly different rules. Don’t procrastinate. You want to be early or near the front of this line.

OCTOBER is Vote Your Mail Ballot Monthor If You Want to Vote In Person, Keep it to Take With You Just in Case.  Mail-in ballots get issued in October. Know when to expect yours. (See your state or county website.) If you don’t get your ballot, phone the elections office. Sometimes they can cancel the first one issued and send you another. Act early.

When you do receive your mail ballot, either vote it ASAP or keep it, envelopes and all, in a safe place. Check local rules about where you can drop a voted mail ballot off in person. And check if your jurisdiction allows “surrender” of an unvoted mail ballot in person in exchange for a regular ballot.  The vulnerability of the Postal Service, in hostile conditions, and with the coronavirus, worries us all.  Help them by being early.

The safest in-person option for a mail-in ballot voter is Early Voting if your jurisdiction offers it. If you’re opting to vote in person but have your mail ballot take it with you in its envelope. If there’s a line, you could use the mail ballot to vote and sign its envelope, then drop it with the poll workers. You won’t have to wait to sign in. But check your local rules before you depend on this. On Election Day itself, many places won’t let you do this—why? Because election offices work hard to get their mail ballot envelope processing out of the way before Election Night ballots pour in. If you have your mail ballot and go to vote in-person on Election Day, by all means take it, and the envelope, with you anyway in case it is a way to avoid provisional. Again – check your local rules!

NOVEMBER is Last Chance Month: The Endgame.  If you vote on Election Day, you know to expect a line. Especially in a blue epicenter in a red state. If you didn’t get a mail ballot that you had requested, check your local rules to know what to expect in person. Maybe you can cancel your ballot to avoid provisional, maybe not. But VOTE. Persevere. Activists will observe the count, especially if the provisional numbers are high in vulnerable communities. Know the rules that protect you from the traps. Teach others.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/06/17/2020-voters-calendar-general-election-starts-august

This is voter PPE – personal protective education – in the time of pandemic. Voting Season is not just about November 3rd anymore, not for vote-counting (it might take weeks) and not for vote-casting. Protection of your voting rights starts three months out.

Use the calendar and foil the treasonous vote suppressors.

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Why Not Postpone 2020 Election?

Is that a threat or just wishful thinking?

Donald the Orange has a problem……voters are starting to doubt his chances for re-election…..

President Trump has trailed Joe Biden in the polls. First, it was only a 5- or 6-percentage-point gap, but since the middle of June, that margin has widened to anywhere from 8 to 9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

But until very recently, voters didn’t seem all that convinced that Biden could win. In poll after poll, comparatively more voters said they thought Trump would win reelection in November. Now, though, that view may be shifting.

Voters Are Starting To Doubt Trump’s Reelection Chances

For several months Trump has been setting up the debate that there will be something wrong with the November election……he has even floated the idea of postponing it.

President Trump on Thursday voiced the thought many of his political opponents don’t want to hear: He raised the idea of delaying November’s election. “With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history,” he tweeted. “It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???” The president, who is trailing in the polls, did not immediately elaborate on the idea. The Washington Post notes that the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to regulate the election date.

In April, Joe Biden said this: “Mark my words, I think he is going to try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.” A Trump campaign spokesperson dismissed the idea at the time as “conspiracy theory ramblings.” Since the prediction, the coronavirus has only worsened in the US, with the death toll now surpassing 150,000. States are ramping up vote-by-mail efforts, but Trump alleges that would open the door to voter fraud.

Let’s look at the possibility of Trump postponing our election….he cannot do it on his own….we sill have a Constitution (as much as Trump might hate the idea)…….

  • The Constitution: It gives Congress, not the president, the power to set the date. Officially, Election Day takes place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a date that has been fixed since 1845, per the New York Times. What’s more, the Constitution stipulates that presidential terms end on Jan. 20. Barring a change to the Constitution, then, any voting delay could only be for a few weeks.
  • What Trump said: “With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???” He didn’t explicitly suggest he would push for the move. Later, he “pinned” the tweet, ensuring it would remain at the top of his feed.
  • Digging deeper: The National Constitution Center has a lengthy post on the subject. “In general, a combination of state or congressional actions could delay elections but not postpone the selection of a president and vice president,” per the post. “The only hard deadline spelled out in the Constitution is the end of a president’s term and a vice president’s term on January 20 of the year following a general election.”
  • Emergency? No, not even in an emergency such as a pandemic can a president circumvent Congress on Election Day, per a breakdown in the Washington Post. Trump could lobby Congress to make the change, but Democrats control the House, making this all but a non-starter.
  • Criticism: It’s coming from Democrats and Republicans. “Please don’t even pretend to mess with this,” wrote Ari Fleischer, former press secretary for George W. Bush. “It’s a harmful idea.” GOP Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming stated flatly on Fox News, “We will not delay the [election].” At the conservative Hot Air site, Ed Morrissey sounds exasperated. “The best that could be said for this tweet is that Trump’s just spitballing, but even that’s an indictment of its own,” he writes. “No president should just be spitballing a suggestion like this, not in public and not even in private.” Besides, he adds, Trump keeps saying we should “reopen for business.”
  • Fraud allegation: Trump continues to allege that mail-in ballots are prone to voter fraud, but the Hill reports there is “no evidence to support the idea.” An NPR fact-check also finds that Trump is spreading “unfounded claims.” Trump, for his part, tweeted a link to this news station’s investigation into problems with mail-in voting in Philadelphia, notes Breitbart News.
  • Things change: In April, Trump ridiculed Joe Biden’s prediction that the president would try to postpone the election, notes Axios. “I never even thought of changing the date of the election,” Trump said at the time. “Why would I do that? November 3rd. It’s a good number. No, I look forward to that election.”

If his threat cannot be acted upon would Trump just in a pouting haze walk away from the election?

First things first: John F. Harris writes that this scenario is “not terribly” plausible. But in a piece at Politico Magazine, he lays out why it might make sense for President Trump to quit the 2020 race before November. Harris notes that in March 1968, Lyndon B. Johnson shocked the nation by announcing at the end of a televised address about Vietnam that he would not run for another term. Things were too dire for him to waste any time on partisan matters, LBJ explained. Harris, who notes that Trump’s current chances of defeating Joe Biden are not great anyway, sees a parallel in 2020 with the pandemic. He even has a sample address Trump could use.

“Fellow Americans, I know I am a disrupter, and everyone knows I thrive on conflict,” Trump could say. “I believe that disruption is what Republicans and the country needed when I ran for president in 2016, and that is what I delivered.” But the pandemic changed everything, and “I am going to devote the balance of my term to trying to get this country opened up safely, and allow someone without my sharp edges make the case for Republicans this fall.” So why would Trump do it? He seems headed for a loss, which could tarnish his image. Stepping out now would help keep him in the game, “preserving his role as disrupter at large in American politics over the next decade.” Read the full column.

Just a thought that that I wanted to share…..

Say what you like….there is NO doubt that this coming election will be different than the ones that preceded it….

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/reasons-years-election-unlike-history-opinion/story

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Susan Rice–Biden’s VP?

There is one name that is taking over the conversation about who Biden will choose as his VP….that name is Susan Rice.

Susan Rice is suddenly the topic of a lot of speculation in Joe Biden’s running mate sweepstakes. The 55-year-old worked with Biden in the Obama administration as national security adviser and as ambassador to the UN, but she was also was embroiled in the controversy over the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. Coverage:

  • Unorthodox: Politico puts her near the top of the shortlist in a lengthy story. It would be an “unorthodox” pick given that she has never run for public office and nearly all of her credentials revolve around foreign policy. Her powerful edge is that Biden has worked closely with her and knows her well; it also doesn’t hurt that she isn’t seen as a VP who would be eyeing a presidential run, as is the perception with Sen. Kamala Harris.
  • Simpatico: The New York Times also is out with a story, noting she was a Rhodes scholar at 21 and an assistant secretary of state at 32. “While she and Mr. Biden have had policy disagreements over the years, they share a deeply held view of the importance of diplomacy and international institutions, a concern for promoting democracy and human rights and a common pride in Obama-era achievements that they helped shape, like the Paris climate agreement and the Iran nuclear deal,” writes Alexander Burns. Her foreign policy chops would allow Biden to focus on the national crises of the pandemic and the economy.
  • Controversies: Rice’s surge up the list of potential running mates is giving some Democrats pause because she is such a lightning rod for critics on the right, reports the Daily Beast. Choosing her might “reinvigorate” the Trump campaign in some respects. One Democratic aide sums up: She “is extremely accomplished and experienced and would obviously help a President Biden tremendously on national security, but on the political side, unfortunately, she has been the target of crazy right-wing hate for years.”
  • Benghazi: Yes, wild conspiracy theories about the 2012 attack that left four Americans dead were debunked, but as the Times‘ Burns points out, “Rice ended up taking the political fall for appearing on the Sunday shows to deliver a set of flawed administration talking points describing it as an outburst of spontaneous violence rather than organized terrorism.” Expect the whole controversy to be raised anew if Rice is on the ticket.
  • In favor: At Washington Monthly, Jonathan Alter makes the case for Rice, discussing all of the above issues, along with another: Rice’s son, John Rice-Cameron, is a prominent Republican. But that might actually work in Rice’s favor. “Many voters with friends and relatives who are Trump supporters may find Rice’s situation with her son human and relatable.”
  • Top 6: Aaron Blake of the Washington Post has updated his list of top contenders. Here are the top six, in order: Sens. Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Tammy Duckworth; Rice; and Reps. Val Demings and Karen Bass.

My thought on this chance….NO!  NO!  NO!

Bad choice!

Why?

“Susan Rice is right in the middle of the road, when you think about foreign policy hands in DC,” said John Glaser, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, in an interview with The American Conservative. “She has a lot of high level experience in foreign policy, but I’ve never been able to detect a way she stands out as a unique thinker, in that she had something to say about the way she’d prefer the U.S. to go. She says things that are plastic, packaged to be right in the center of the foreign policy consensus in D.C. That’s how I see her: run of the mill, not an extraordinary pick … If she were VP, our foreign policy would not be different than what we’ve seen the past 30 years.”

Given that Biden is campaigning on a “return to normalcy,” the foreign policy of the last 30 years isn’t necessarily something that Biden views negatively.

A Biden-Rice presidency would seek a return to the Paris climate accords, the JCPOA Iran deal negotiated during Obama’s second term, and would expand and strengthen NATO. They would likely avoid engaging in any new ground wars like Libya or Syria. Biden and Rice would be more hawkish on Russia, and if Rice’s latest op-eds are any measure, they would likely be more assertive with China as well.

Our Foreign Policy Nightmare: Vice President Susan Rice

Rice is a centrist….that puts her in the camp of a Neoliberal ….she will do little to prevent more war…..and that would be in the same vane as Biden.

Not a good choice in my opinion.

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

Trump In 2020

There is lots of talk about the polls showing Biden a big league in most contest in November…..but is it really that big of a lead?

Sorry voters but if you can think back to the Dark Ages, 2016, Clinton had a commanding lead in the polls and she had her ass handed to her…..so the moral of this story is do not believe the bullshit spread by the media.

Here is a couple of things about the upcoming election……

This article in the American Spectator (too conserv for my liking)……about Trump’s so-called Silent Majority…..

When President Trump insisted last month that his supporters included a substantial silent majority that isn’t represented in the polls, the Democrats and the corporate media devoted a surprisingly large amount of energy to “debunking” the claim. Indeed, their reaction was so shrill and ubiquitous that they seemed, to paraphrase Hamlet’s hapless mother, to be protesting too much. A new poll released Wednesday by the Cato Institute suggests a reason for this frantic reaction to Trump’s assertion. The survey of 2,000 Americans 18 years of age and older unambiguously indicates that the reluctance of moderates and conservatives to share their political views has increased significantly since 2017.

According to the poll, conducted on Cato’s behalf by YouGov, “The share of moderates who self‐​censor increased 7 points from 57% to 64%, and the share of conservatives rose from 70% to 77%, also a 7‐​point increase.” Perhaps more significantly, strong liberals constituted the only ideological cohort that indicated more freedom to express their political opinions. Only 42 percent indicate that they self-censor. A majority of committed liberals (58 percent) feel free to say what they think. This is why those with left-leaning political views seem to dominate the political discourse. They are doing most of the talking while moderates and conservatives keep their own counsel and wait patiently for Election Day.

More Evidence That Trump’s Silent Majority Is Real

Personally, I think that is “putting lipstick on a pig”…….

But Sen Mitt Romney has a few thoughts……

Mitt Romney is one of Donald Trump’s biggest Republican critics on Capitol Hill. He’s the only GOP senator who voted to convict the president for abuse of power earlier this year, and he regularly calls Trump out on policy and personal conduct.

Yet the Utah lawmaker, who was his party’s presidential standard-bearer in 2012, believes Trump is likely to win reelection this November.

Asked why he foresees that outcome, especially with most public polls showing Trump trailing badly behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Romney offered three reasons.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-trump-election-2020_n_5f19bdf6c5b6f2f6c9f31c6f

I cannot end on a note like that….so here is a thought of what Trump is doing to the GOP…….

Before beginning this assessment of Donald Trump’s campaign and the impact that it’s having on the Republican Party, it’s important to state that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. However, it cannot be ignored that the signs aren’t good for the President.

In 2016, at this stage of the campaign, polls showed that Hillary Clinton had a narrow lead, sometimes within the margin of error. Four years later, polls regularly show Joe Biden with a more substantial lead of 10% or more. This is supported by the state-by-state polls that give a greater insight into what’s happening on the ground in key battleground states, including places that Republicans once considered safe. The reality is that Donald Trump’s campaign is a sinking ship and he is taking the rest of the Republican Party with him.

Trump Is A Sinking Ship Taking The GOP With Him

Some are predicting the election of 2020 will be a major clusterf*ck…….

People often deploy the “perfect storm” metaphor incorrectly, using it to describe a surprise collision of events that catches its victims off guard. But that’s not how perfect storms really work: In Sebastian Junger’s book about a deadly Atlantic Ocean gale that popularized the term, the storm was a well-foreseen event, with serious warnings, that people saw coming and chose instead to ignore—until it was too late, and the waves overwhelmed them. That’s how this election is starting to look to experts.

What’s likely to go wrong, and is there any way to head it off?

Conversations with election specialists and security officials, plus analysis of recent government reports, make clear that there are eight distinct but connected challenges. At the technical end are the uncertain new voting technologies and processes put in place for the pandemic; on the geopolitical end, we face foreign adversaries energized by their success sowing confusion in 2016. And at the center is the unprecedented human factor: The dislocations and risks associated with voting in an uncontrolled viral outbreak.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/24/2020-election-disaster-perfect-storm-372778

2020 will be something for political students to study for many many years to come.

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Atta Boys!

This post is for those people that show up only occasionally when I write something derogatory about Herr Trump…..actually I have written several times about some of the policies that Trump is embracing that I would approve of….but that does not get the slower out there to show up.

I have agreed with Trump on some of his foreign policy issues….like bringing our troops home….and just the other day I saw another issue that I would give him an “atta boy”…..drug prices.

President Trump is reportedly set to sign an executive order Friday to reduce prescription-drug costs.

The president’s election-year effort was first reported by The Hill newspaper, which obtained an invitation sent to some GOP lawmakers for a 3 p.m. White House event on drug pricing. 

The exact details of the executive order remain unclear. But sources told the newspaper that it could include a version of an existing proposal to lower the price of some U.S. drugs by connecting them to lower prices paid in other countries.

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/trump-likely-sign-executive-order-lower-prescription-drug-costs-us

Please I have NO illusion that this is just a way to gain a little support when poll numbers ware waning……but if it saves me money on my drugs then he has my thanks.

And yet another “atta boy” for Trump……

We all know that Trump is a voracious Twitter user, right?

And I have often asked myself he actually knows what he is Tweeting…..well I have an answer to my rhetorical question.

President Trump acknowledged in an interview released Friday that he “often” regrets his tweets and retweets.

“It used to be in the old days before this, you’d write a letter and you’d say, ‘this letter is really bad,’ you put it on your desk and you go back tomorrow and you say, ‘oh, I’m glad I didn’t send it,’” Trump told Barstool Sports’ founder Dave Portnoy.

“But we don’t do that with Twitter. We put it out instantaneously, we feel great, and then you start getting phone calls, ‘Did you really say this?’ I say, ‘What’s wrong with that?’ And you find a lot of things,” continued the president, who is often the subject of criticism over his use of his Twitter account. “You know what I find? It’s not the tweets, it’s the retweets that get you in trouble.”

Trump went on to say he doesn’t always look closely at the tweets that he shares from his Twitter account, which has 84 million followers.

He had similarly said that some of his tweets create problems for the White House in an interview last year.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/508947-trump-says-he-often-regrets-his-tweets-and-retweets

My question is if you realize that some of your Tweets are not good at all….why continue to do it?

Is it an addiction that he cannot break?

Just Wondering!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing Thought–23Jul20

Pres. Trump has been setting the stage to challenge an election since 2016…..and he has made it clear that he will not accept the votes that are cast if he does not win.

In a Fox News interview that aired Sunday, President Donald Trump refused to commit to accepting the results of the 2020 presidential election and baselessly claimed mail-in voting is going to “rig” the contest—remarks one advocacy group condemned as an “insidious” attack on democracy.

“I have to see,” Trump said when asked by Fox News host Chris Wallace whether he intends to accept the election results. “No, I’m not gonna just say yes. I’m not gonna say it, and I didn’t last time either.”

Sean Eldridge, founder and president of Stand Up America, said in a statement that Trump’s comments show “he is an existential threat to our democracy and has no respect for the rule of law.”

“For five years, Trump has sought to undermine our elections again and again—from soliciting foreign interference to making baseless claims about voter fraud to lying about the results of the 2016 election,” said Eldridge. “Today’s comments are an escalation in these attacks on our democracy and show the insidious ways in which Trump is working to sow doubt about the outcome of this election before votes are even cast.”

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/07/19/existential-threat-our-democracy-trump-refuses-commit-accepting-2020-election

I will be interested in see how many of his supporters will come to his side and defend such blatant treasonous attitudes.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Biden’s Foreign Policy

It is little secret that I am a foreign policy voter…..I spent many years working in government then teaching and later writing and being an activist.

I have looked at Trump’s foreign policy…..some of it I could support but not when it changes by the day……here is what I wrote at Donald the Orange foreign policy……

Now I need to look at what Biden’s approach would be if elected…..

This look is through the eyes of RealClearPolitics……

The 2020 presidential election is less than five months away. While the news cycle is still dominated by the pandemic and the economic consequences of the lockdown, the public needs to learn more about what is at stake for U.S. foreign policy in the upcoming contest. The Trump administration has taken some high-profile and controversial positions in world affairs. Now the electorate deserves to know where the presumptive Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, stands on these matters. To date, no clear Democratic foreign policy platform has emerged. To make an informed choice in November, it is important for the public to gain insight into Biden’s estimation of world affairs and his plans for the future of American foreign policy.

A list of questions may help the candidate decide whether and how he intends to differentiate himself from President Trump. It is insufficient for candidate Biden simply to repeat that he used to be vice president and therefore has experience. He should instead tell us what he will do with that experience if he wins in November. Will he change our foreign policy? How?

First and most importantly, we need to know how candidate Biden views China. Even before the pandemic, critical views on China were spreading — a reaction against China’s mistreatment of American firms, its military ambitions in the Pacific, and its human rights abuses domestically. Will Biden take steps to defend the autonomy of Hong Kong? What is his red line there? Would a Biden administration continue or reverse the Trump efforts to block the expansion of Chinese technology firm Huawei into sensitive security networks?

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2020/05/26/we_need_to_know_bidens_foreign_policy_plans_492578.html

Biden is no progressive….he is a shadow Neocon and our foreign policy will change little from what it is now and what it was under the Obama control.

In other words….endless wars and wasted money on them.

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”