Counteroffensive–Not So Fast

For months we have been told of the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive in Eastern part of the country….there been a few delays like weather, waiting for more and better weapons, etc.

It is being reported that the Biden posse expects nothing out if the proposed counteroffensive….instead a long drawn out frozen conflict.

The Biden administration is preparing for the war in Ukraine to turn into a frozen conflict for years or possibly even decades, similar to the situation on the Korean peninsula, POLITICO reported on Thursday.

US officials have been discussing the possibility, including potential options for where to draw the lines for a frozen conflict that either side would agree not to cross. The report said the idea of freezing the fighting could be a “politically palatable long-term result.”

The administration is considering the possibility because they don’t expect Ukraine to regain much territory in its long-awaited counteroffensive. According to POLITICO, the US is expecting that the assault “won’t deal a mortal blow to Russia.”

A US official said the administration is preparing to support Ukraine for the long term, whether the conflict is frozen or not. “We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” the official told POLITICO.

Since one of Russia’s main motives for invading Ukraine was its alignment with NATO, and its main demand during short-lived negotiations in the early days of the war was Ukrainian neutrality, a frozen conflict that involves NATO continuing to arm Kyiv would likely not be acceptable to Moscow. While Russian officials have expressed an openness to negotiations, the Kremlin has said it believes Russia’s goals can only be achieved through military means.

If the conflict is frozen along the current battle lines, Ukraine would lose significantly more territory than if it negotiated a deal with Moscow shortly after the invasion. But the peace talks were discouraged by the US and its allies, and the Biden administration still shows no interest in pushing for a lasting diplomatic solution.

(antiwar.com)

Does that sound at all familiar to anyone but me?

But wait…..are those F-16s going to be a game change?

Mostly likely not.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said Monday that the provision of F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv will give Ukraine’s military an “incremental” boost but said it wouldn’t be a “game-changer” in the conflict.

“The F-16 is a reasonable option for them for a whole bunch of reasons,” Kendall said. “It will give Ukrainians an increment of capabilities that they don’t have right now. But it’s not going to be a dramatic game-changer, as far as I’m concerned, for their total military capabilities.”

The US announced on Friday that it would sign off on European deliveries of F-16s for Ukraine, but there’s still a long way to go before the planes reach Kyiv. No countries have officially committed to sending their F-16s, and the current focus is on supporting training for Ukrainian pilots.

We do this all the time….that is why I say we are addicted to endless war.

The only winners in this conflict are the arms industries….they will continue to make their profit (a post to come) until the last Ukrainian.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

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Yet Another Peace Plan

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has seen several peace proposals from countries around the globe….from Brazil, China, Turkey, et al and now a new proposal will be presented to both sides….this time African nations will do the presenting.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have agreed to host a delegation of African leaders to discuss a potential peace plan for the conflict in Ukraine.

“My discussions with the two leaders demonstrated that they are both ready to receive the African leaders and to have discussion on how this conflict can be brought to an end,” Ramaphosa said, according to DW. “Whether that will succeed or not is going to depend on the discussions that will be held.”

On top of Ramaphosa, the leaders of Senegal, Uganda, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, and Zambia also support the plan. Ramaphosa did not give a timeline on when the visits to Moscow and Kyiv might happen.

The news of the African-led peace push comes as China has dispatched a senior envoy to visit Ukraine, Russia, and other countries in the region in an effort to foster dialogue. Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, was expected to arrive in Ukraine on Tuesday.

The US has not been happy with South Africa’s neutrality in the Ukraine conflict and recently accused Pretoria of aiding Russia. The US ambassador to South Africa claimed without evidence that a Russian ship that recently docked in the country was loaded with arms.

According to Ramaphosa, the US and Britain have expressed “cautious” support for the African-led peace push. The New York Times reported last week that US officials are “wary of any calls for an immediate ceasefire or peace talks.”

(antiwar.com)

The plan is supported by the leaders of South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, and Zambia.

Specifics are slim at this draft….but I will be watching and writing as soon as more info is available.

Somewhere sanity must prevail and a plan be formulated that will end the carnage in Ukraine.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What The Leak Exposed

Last month there was a story about the leaked documents of the top secret type that was headlines for a couple of days then went sorta silent…..but there is still stuff being gleamed out of the documents….

This story is about our man in Ukraine, Zelensky……

Volodymyr Zelensky apparently isn’t satisfied with merely repelling Russian troops. The Washington Post reports that in private talks with his generals, he has been pushing for aggressive attacks within Russia and even for occupying Russian villages. The story is another based on leaked US intelligence reports that first surfaced on the Discord messaging platform. For example:

  • “In a meeting in late January, Zelensky suggested Ukraine ‘conduct strikes in Russia’ while moving Ukrainian ground troops into enemy territory to ‘occupy unspecified Russian border cities,’ according to one document labeled ‘top secret.’ The goal would be ‘to give Kyiv leverage in talks with Moscow,’ the document said.”

At other times, Zelensky suggests bombing a Russian pipeline that delivers oil to Hungary as revenge for Hungary leader Viktor Orban’s support of Vladimir Putin, and he expresses a desire for long-range missiles to strike within Russia. US officials did not dispute the accuracy of the leaked documents. Zelensky himself tells the Post that suggestions he wants to occupy Russian villages are “fantasies,” but he also makes clear that Ukraine has the right to resort to unconventional methods. “Ukraine did not occupy anyone, but vice versa,” he said. “When so many people have died and there have been mass graves and our people have been tortured, I am sure that we have to use any tricks.”

Read the full story.

I understand the desire for revenge for the invasion….but I also understand why he needs to practice some restraint or he could put his ‘allies’ ass deep in a war that few of them want.

My question is if these ‘top secret’ documents were made public then why are we not getting more information about them and what is truly happening in Ukraine….I for one do not believe all the hype and war mongering.

I say give us all the information undiluted by the cyber machine and let us decide what is what…..some of us are still capable of critical and rational thinking.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Ukraine Needs More….And More

While the world awaits the counteroffensive that has been promised by Ukraine against the invading Russian army in the East of the country…..its officials are planning the ‘next’ counteroffensive action…….

These officials are starting their program to get even more of American taxpayer money….even before their first long awaited counteroffensive has not been successful or for that matter has not even begun.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said the upcoming counteroffensive would not be the last. The diplomat requested NATO members transfer more advanced weapons to Kiev for the coming operations, including F-16s. 

Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister, said in an interview with Deutsche Welle, “Do not consider this counteroffensive as the last one, because we do not know what will come out of it.” He continued, “It means we have to prepare for the next counteroffensive.”

For months, the Pentagon has been assisting Kiev in planning its operations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has used the forthcoming counteroffensive to lobby for more weapons from his Western backers. 

Last week, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Pristayko indicated the long-anticipated operations would begin once the weather improves. Recently American and Ukrainian officials have suggested the counteroffensive to retake territory could fail. 

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that the results of the counteroffensive would have significant sway over whether Ukraine continues to receive US support. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support.” He continued, “If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though.”

Although, at a joint press conference on Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly explained Western support is not based on Ukraine’s battlefield success. “We need to continue to support them, irrespective of whether this forthcoming offensive generates huge gains on the battlefield, because until this conflict is resolved and resolved properly, it is not over,” Cleverly said.

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/ukraine-seeking-advanced-weapons-for-next-counteroffensive/

“Resolved properly”?

Who decides that?

Maybe a look at Ukraine from SouthFront.org 

I would like the American people stop believing the hype….and the wealth of disinformation designed to garner public support for the continuation of this conflict that only certain people profit from….hint:  it is not the Ukrainian people.

I realize that some think that the purse strings for war is unlimited but the lust for war will destroy this country in time.

Just saying!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Those Blanket Approvals

A recent survey and the GOP numbers for support for this person is dwindling…..

Less than half of Republicans have confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to “do the right thing regarding world affairs,” according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center that highlights the growing partisan divide over the war in Ukraine.

Only 44 percent of Republican respondents said they had confidence in Zelensky, while 71 percent of Democrats expressed support for the war-time leader — a 27 percent split between parties. 

The divide held when respondents were asked if they held favorable views of Ukraine in general, with 52 percent of Republicans and 77 percent of Democrats saying they had a positive opinion of the country.

The survey joins a long list of recent polls showing that the Republican base is increasingly skeptical of U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Notably, the growing partisan divide appears to have had little effect on the policy preferences of GOP leaders in Congress. 

While House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had signaled before the midterm elections that he would not support a “blank check” for Ukraine, he rolled back those remarks last week and pledged that the U.S. will continue its military assistance “as long as I am Speaker.”

But GOP presidential candidates have been more willing to express concerns about U.S. support for Kyiv. Former President Donald Trump said in January that the war was a “tragic waste of human life” and claimed that, if he was still in the White House, he would be able to rapidly negotiate an end to the conflict.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — Trump’s leading challenger — has also expressed cautious skepticism about the value of backing Ukraine to the hilt and appeared to call for a ceasefire in April.

Poll: Less than half of Republicans have confidence in Zelensky

But I do not think the Zelensky has much to worry about for the arms industry owns the Congress and while support may be less now the blood letting will continue.

Besides the American people have this lust for blood and guts war (the indoctrination has become complete)…

For various reasons, America’s ruling class has a great love of war, even as America’s non-ruling-classes have a general indifference to it, as long as its destructiveness is kept overseas and out of sight.

It’s strange indeed that we have such faith in war: such faith in destruction as being progressive. Americans are a hyper-aggressive and trigger-happy bunch, quick to anger, slow to think. Fear, anger, and pride make us a menace to various peoples on the receiving end of American firepower, yet somehow we see ourselves as reasonable peacemakers. Such a mass delusion can only be sustained through massive propaganda, a “victory culture” if you will, supported by all those Hollywood war movies, TV shows featuring SEALs and the like, military pageantry at sporting events, and so on.

William Astore on America’s Faith in War

Besides some disinformation will be passed on to help the support grow…..like always it is glowing and bullsh*t.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Spring Counteroffensive

The world has been promised a Ukrainian counteroffensive that is for ‘total victory’.

Better hurry for Spring is dwindling away and Summer looms.

I understand that the weather and on-ground conditions can be a bit challenging….but we were promised.

US expectations are large but conditional…..

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Monday that future US support for Ukraine depends on Kyiv’s looming counteroffensive.

“I think there’s going to be a lot riding on the line with this counteroffensive,” McCaul told Bloomberg. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support. If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though.”

The US has put enormous weight on Kyiv’s expected counteroffensive and has helped Ukraine prepare for the assault by training soldiers and sending more arms. But leaked Pentagon documents and media reports indicate the US doesn’t expect Kyiv to regain significant territory.

McCaul said he expects Ukraine to focus its counteroffensive on the land bridge Russia has secured to Crimea. He said after Ukraine pushed back Russian forces, Kyiv could “call for a ceasefire, after which we can then maybe have negotiations, to finally resolve this.”

(antiwar.com)

AS I said waiting for better weather….Ukraine is waiting for better weather before it launches its long-awaited spring counteroffensive, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK told Sky News.

The longer they wait the lower the expectations it seems…..

Senior Ukrainian officials fear their coming counteroffensive will not live up to the expectations of Kyiv’s Western backers, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “Most people are … waiting for something huge.”

One of the Pentagon documents that appeared online as part of the Discord leaks was a US assessment from February that showed the US did not believe Ukraine could regain significant territory. POLITICO reported on April 24 that current assessments say something similar.

But Western officials are still insisting that Ukraine has what it needs to retake territory from Russia this spring. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that Kyiv is capable despite what the Discord leaks revealed.

Reznikov said Kyiv’s Western backers have said they need an example of “a success because we need to show it to our people,” as a Ukrainian failure would not bode well for rallying more military assistance for Kyiv. “But I cannot tell you what the scale of this success would be. Ten kilometers, 30 kilometers, 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers?” said Reznikov.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs and staunch supporter of arming Ukraine, has said future aid hinges on the counteroffensive. “If Ukraine is successful in the eyes of the American people and the world, I think it will be a game-changer for continued support. If they are not, that will also have an impact, in a negative way, though,” McCaul said last week.

Reznikov and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Post that they were still preparing for the counteroffensive. Zelensky said they will be ready to launch the assault “as soon as the weapons that were agreed with our partners are filled.”

Reznikov said the “first assault formation” is more than 90% prepared but some troops are still receiving training in other countries. The looming counteroffensive is expected to be focused on the south as an attempt to sever the land bridge Russia has secured to Crimea.

(antiwar.com)

I am sure I will get all the usual excuses….

Let’s say the counteroffensive is moderately successful…..does anyone really see a change in this conflict?

I do not.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Victory At All Costs

Happy May Day!

That seems to be the attitude of those deep in the Ukraine conflict……and that includes some within our Congress and the president has basically given an open end commitment to fund the war for Ukraine.

A few in the Congress have made their commitment known through their offering of bills……

A bipartisan group of hawks in Congress announced a new resolution on Tuesday that calls for the U.S. to seek the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders and to bring Ukraine into NATO after the war is over. 

Reps. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) are co-sponsoring what they call the Ukrainian Victory Resolution, and have been framing it, perhaps not surprisingly, with the lofty rhetoric of World War II. So far the bill has 18 bipartisan co-sponsors.

“We must not repeat the error of Sept. 1, 1939,” Wilson told Yahoo News, referencing what is now held by many as the “Munich moment” and appeasement of Adolf Hitler before the Nazi invasion of Poland.

Senators Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) have also introduced their own, similar resolution in the Senate. This comes after three Senators and 16 House Republicans last week sent a letter to President Biden saying they would not support any new Ukraine aid if it was not paired with a clear.

This week’s resolutions are sure to stir debate over the extent of U.S. Ukraine policy and support ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring. Furthermore, a signal from Congress that the U.S. is fully behind the retaking of Crimea and the Donbas would be exactly what the Ukrainian government wants to hear, but it is a dangerous message to send when Ukraine lacks the ability to achieve those goals on the ground.

In fact, setting overly ambitious, unrealistic goals as the definition of “victory” seems more likely to blow up in the faces of both Washington and Kyiv. Instead of backing war aims that promise to prolong the conflict, the U.S. should be encouraging Ukraine to settle for a return to the pre-2022 lines.

Lawmakers deploy ‘Munich’ trope to push dangerously hawkish Ukraine resolutions

This will eventually bite the US in the ass….as always.

Another point here where will the US get the funds to pay for the massive build-up for a possible mash-up with China?  Nations like South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan…..that will stretch things a bit far.

But as long as the profits keep coming….who f*cking cares?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What Game Is This?

Meanwhile back to the Ukraine/Russia mash-up….

And the confusion remains….

The US House members want a resolution for a total victory in Ukraine…..

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) is planning to introduce a resolution in the House that would declare it is US policy to seek a Ukrainian victory against Russia, which includes returning all Russian-controlled territory to Kyiv, including Crimea.

According to Yahoo News, the resolution “affirms that it is the policy of the United States to see Ukraine victorious against the invasion and restored to its internationally recognized 1991 borders.”

The resolution will be co-sponsored by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) and will need to make it through the House Foreign Affairs Committee before being put to the floor for a full House vote. The committee is chaired by Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), who has been calling on President Biden to arm Ukraine with longer-range weapons that can launch strikes on Crimea.

(antiwar.com)

Any accountability according to Dems would be “devisive and ill-advised”….

Legislation introduced by Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL), which calls on the White House to provide Congress with documents related to the war in Ukraine, passed a voice vote on Wednesday. The resolution is set to be voted on by the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Friday. Debate on the resolution was divided among party lines

The legislation, H.Res.300, calls on President Joe Biden to “transmit, respectively, to the House of Representatives copies of all documents indicating any plans for current or future military assistance to Ukraine and documents indicating whether any United States Armed Forces, including special operations forces, are currently deployed in Ukraine.” 

Support for the resolution was limited to Republicans. The measure passed a voice vote and is set for a full committee vote on Friday. Several Democrats attacked the legislation during Wednesday’s debate. 

Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC) blasted the resolution as “divisive and ill-advised.” She claimed, “It is a partisan political ploy, and the height of legislative irresponsibility that jeopardizes the national security of the United States, of our Europe allies and partners as well as the courageous Ukrainian people.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/democrats-attack-ukraine-audit-resolution-as-divisive-and-ill-advised/

Makes you wonder just who pays these slugs salary….and why throwing cash without accountability is fine with them.

While the House has wishful thinking….the President and his minions are not so sure….

The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive failing, POLITICO reported on Monday.

Pentagon documents allegedly leaked by Airman Jack Teixeira revealed that the US doesn’t believe Ukraine can regain any significant territory in its counteroffensive, which is expected to be launched in the spring. The information in the leaks was based on an assessment made in February.

According to POLITICO, more current assessments also don’t expect much Ukrainian success. Two Biden administration officials said they don’t think Kyiv has the ability to sever Russia’s landbridge to Crimea in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The report said US intelligence “indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in March that his forces need more Western weapons before they can launch a counteroffensive.

(antiwar.com)

… according to POLITICO, there is a discussion among administration officials about convincing Ukraine to accept more modest goals and agree to a temporary ceasefire. Possible incentives for Kyiv include giving Ukraine NATO-like security guarantees and more military aid.

Keep in mind before this conflict heated up…. Russian and Ukrainian officials were engaged in peace talks, and Moscow’s primary demand was for Ukrainian neutrality. But now Kyiv stands to lose much more as Russia maintains any settlement must include recognizing the areas it annexed in the Donbas and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as Russian territory.

Sorry to bring that up….it does not trend with Russia bad, Putin’s a dick and victory at ALL costs.

How long will this continue?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Why Not Syria?

We all know about the conflict in Ukraine, we should the press has been cheer leading the war since the beginning, now that the leaked documents have been scrutinized there was one document that makes me ask questions.

Kiev’s military intelligence agency believed it could carry out attacks on Russian soldiers and Wagner Group forces in Syria, forcing Moscow to redeploy military assets from Ukraine. The story was reported by the Washington Post using documents released by Jack Teixeira.

The Ukrainian defense officials believed they could use Kurdish forces to wage a proxy war against Russia in Syria. According to the Post, the plan never materialized as President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered an end to the planning in December.

It appears that Ukrainian officials engaged in some discussions with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia backed by the US. The documents said the Kurdish officials requested training on drones and air defenses. Additionally, the Kurds said they would not attack Russian positions in areas held by the SDF, and requested their role in the operations be kept secret.

The document says Zelensky could allow the operations to proceed, but would likely require assistance from the US and Turkey. Ankara may be unwilling to support the covert proxy warfare as it views the SDF as a terrorist organization, and has long protested Washington arming the Syrian Kurds.

Additionally, the operations could inflame the war in Syria. The decade-long war has seen a dip in violence in recent years as Assad and his allies have consolidated control over most of Syria. The US and SDF occupy the eastern third of the country. However, the SDF leadership has shown a willingness to work with Moscow. If Kurdish forces allow themselves to become a proxy force for Kiev, Moscow will likely aggressively target SDF positions in eastern Syria. 

(antiwar.com)

Seriously the US would bankroll this operation?

Must we always bankroll these petty wars?

Still waiting for an answer to my original question….what will the US get return on our investment in the Ukraine war?

Why aren’t more questions being asked about this situation?

Just wondering.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Is Ukraine A Stalemate?

Probably not.  (Semantics)

More like an impasse.

Impasse: a predicament affording no obvious escape.

That is my thought….no matter how much equipment and money that is poured into Ukraine this situation will only be settled by negotiations….the only thing a prolonged war accomplishes is more death and destruction.

But stalemate is liberally used in this case….

But stalemate often involves large and bloody battles. The Battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele took place in conditions of stalemate. Hundreds of thousands were killed in those battles that moved the front lines a little, but not much. And stalemates can ultimately be broken, as the one in World War I eventually was. One side or the other can lose its will. One side or the other can gain a new ally (like the US in World War I). One side or the other can gain a technological advantage, although that’s less common (and was less important in World War I than the entry of the US). One side or the other can just be ground down and collapse (like Russia in 1917). Many things can happen in the context of a huge amount of fighting and dying, all in conditions of stalemate. That is the most likely course of action we see in Ukraine right now.

Our assessment that the Russian campaign has culminated and that conditions of stalemate are emerging rests on our assessments, laid out carefully in many fully documented reports published on our website (not just maps) and increasingly validated by reports from various Western intelligence communities, that the Russians do not have the capability to bring a lot of fresh effective combat power to the fight in a short period of time. The kinds of mobilizations the Russians are engaging in will generate renewed fighting power in months at the earliest. Unless something remarkable happens to break the stalemate now settling in, the stalemate is likely to last for months. Hence our assessment and our forecast.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-stalemate-means-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

All sides seem to want this conflict to go on and on…..so how may this situation be resolved….

Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. So how might the war end? Here are five scenarios to consider.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/24/how-might-the-ukraine-war-end

Then there is the BS about the tanks and planes will change the direction of the conflict….not gonna happen.

Western and NATO countries promised to send modern weaponry to Ukraine. As U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, the intent was to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to drive Russia out. As signs indicate a Ukrainian spring offensive may soon launch, many Western military analysts claim that a sufficient amount of Western armor could turn things around for Ukraine. A careful analysis reveals such optimism may be misplaced.

Bad News: NATO Tanks, Planes, and Artillery Unlikely to Win Ukraine War

All that is left now in Eastern Ukraine is to start digging the trenches….(a WW1 reference in case you are confused….which you probably are….)

How will this end?

And the war drags on….and on….

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”