Will China Invade Taiwan?

When people are not voicing their thoughts on the conflict in Ukraine and of course go to the next big story the media is pushing….a possible confrontation between US and China over Taiwan.

But the question is will China truly invade/attack Taiwan?

This article looks at the possibility….

Is China really on the verge of invading the island of Taiwan, as so many top American officials seem to believe? If the answer is “yes” and the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan’s side — as President Biden has sworn it would — we could find ourselves in a major-power conflict, possibly even a nuclear one, in the not-too-distant future. Even if confined to Asia and fought with conventional weaponry alone — no sure thing — such a conflict would still result in human and economic damage on a far greater scale than observed in Ukraine today.

But what if the answer is “no,” which seems at least as likely? Wouldn’t that pave the way for the U.S. to work with its friends and allies, no less than with China itself, to reduce tensions in the region and possibly open a space for the launching of peaceful negotiations between Taiwan and the mainland? If nothing else, it would eliminate the need to boost the Pentagon budget by many billions of dollars annually, as now advocated by China hawks in Congress.

How that question is answered has enormous implications for us all. Yet, among policymakers in Washington, it isn’t even up for discussion. Instead, they seem to be competing with each another to identify the year in which the purported Chinese invasion will occur and war will break out between our countries.

Is It 2035, 2027, or 2025?

All high-level predictions of an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan rest on the assumption that Chinese leaders will never allow that island to become fully independent and so will respond to any move in that direction with a full-scale military assault. In justifying such claims, American officials regularly point to the ongoing modernization of China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and warnings by top Chinese officials that they will crush any effort by “separatist elements” in Taiwan to impede unification. In line with that mode of thinking, only one question remains: Exactly when will the Chinese leadership consider the PLA ready to invade Taiwan and overpower any U.S. forces sent to the island’s relief?

Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Imminent?

I am positive that there are ideas on this eventuality….let them fly.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”


A Brokered Deal

The Middle East has been a ideological battle between the two major sects of Islam….the Sunni and the Shia….the major proponents of these sects are Saudi Arabia and Iran….these divisions have lead to some bloody confrontations like the war between Iraq and Iran in the 80s.

Finally a deal has been brokered between the two…..and it was not through the work of the US to find some sort of peace for the benefit of the region.

US arch nemesis was the culprit….China.

The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume relations, a deal mediated by China, appears to be a watershed moment in the Middle East, realigning alliances that have dominated diplomacy for decades while—at least for now—leaving the US out. The pact indicates that nations in the region are willing to move beyond rivalries that seemed permanent to find new solutions without the help of the Americans, who have been involved in peace negotiations there for most of a century but now are more focused on Ukraine and Asia, per the Wall Street Journal.

Long a minor participant in Middle East issues, China has stepped in to fill the void, hosting negotiations in Beijing before announcing the agreement Friday. One analyst said there’s no denying the importance of China’s success, which eclipses President Biden’s efforts. “Yes, the United States could not have brokered such a deal right now with Iran specifically, since we have no relations,” Amy Hawthorne of the nonprofit Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington told the New York Times. “But in a larger sense, China’s prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically and outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office.”

Israel is left out, too, after lobbying Saudi Arabia; as the US decreases its involvement, allies have grown concerned about security guarantees made in the past, per the Journal. Other analysts—and Biden aides—caution against inflating the significance of the agreement, which, at bottom, promises to reopen the nations’ embassies shut since 2016. It’s a minor step, they say, toward easing tensions. Besides, “China doesn’t have the capacity to play a bigger security role in the region,” said Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, a think tank in London. But the deal does show China’s “potential to be an appealing alternative to Washington,” she said.

The final sentence of the report says it all.

This deal should have been brokered by the US but instead we let China get the upper hand…..but an incident in 1979 precludes the US from ever doing the right thing.

Is this agreement a big deal?  Yes it is.

Iran and Saudi Arabia concluded a deal Friday to restore normal diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies within two months. The agreement came at the end of a week of Chinese-brokered negotiations in Beijing, which brought an end to the rift between the two governments that has existed ever since Saudi Arabia broke off relations in 2016.

If the agreement holds, it will be an important step forward in regional diplomacy, and it may help in facilitating progress towards a more lasting truce in Yemen. The resumption of normal relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is the result of their recognizing that the earlier intense animosity between these countries was mutually undesirable. Restoring diplomatic ties is not a panacea for all regional tensions, but it should have a stabilizing effect that is very much needed as U.S.-Iranian tensions are on the rise. 

China’s mediation is an example of the constructive role that other major powers can sometimes have in the Middle East. It also shows how much more effective diplomacy can be when a major power has not ensnared itself in the region’s rivalries. China enjoys reasonably good relations with both governments, and that put it in a position to broker a deal that the U.S. likely could never have managed to get. As the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi observed, “By not taking sides, China has emerged as a player that can resolve disputes rather than merely sell weapons.”

Why the Iran-Saudi agreement to restore ties is so big

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The ‘Yellow’ Menace Is Coming

If you bother to keep up with the news then you will have heard the canned predictions that if Russia does not come for us then it will be China.

The words are starting to become louder and louder as the public opinion on Ukraine is starting to crack….we need that enemy and the M-IC and the MSM will make sure we have what they want us to have.

Sadly the reports coming out after a war game that was recently held to impress China that we mean business had an unexpected side effect.

Last year, a war game simulation looked at what might happen if China launched an amphibious attack on Taiwan. China would be happy with the results: The US side ran out of long-range cruise missiles in a week, writes Michael R. Gordon in the Wall Street Journal. The reasons behind that are complex, as detailed by Gordon in a lengthy and bleak assessment of America’s military readiness in the modern era. “Five years ago, after decades fighting insurgencies in the Middle East and Central Asia, the U.S. started tackling a new era of great-power competition with China and Russia,” writes Gordon. “It isn’t yet ready, and there are major obstacles in the way.”

Among those obstacles: The US has fewer arms manufacturers because of corporate consolidation, military recruitment is down, shipyards “are struggling to produce the submarines the Navy says it needs to counter China’s larger naval fleet,” and US weapons designers lag those in Russia and China on hypersonic missiles. Yes, the US had military successes in the Mideast and Afghanistan, thanks largely to air superiority, but things would be different in a conflict with China. For one thing, our Asian bases rely on “long and potentially vulnerable supply routes.” The US has new weapons systems in the works that may be game-changers (Gordon provides details. But they won’t be operational for another decade or so, raising fears China will strike before then.) Read the full story.

But yet the cheer leading for confrontation continues….why?

I know why but do you?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

China And Ukraine–Part 2

China has been in the news lately but little has been about their involvement in the Ukraine/Russia conflict.

The news has come out that China was considering arming Russia….and the world lost its collective minds…..but maybe it was premature….

China’s representative to the UN on Thursday said that sending weapons to be used in the Ukraine war will not bring peace as the US is claiming Beijing is considering providing Moscow with military aid for the conflict.

“One year into the Ukraine crisis, brutal facts have offered ample proof that sending weapons will not bring peace, adding fuel to the fire will only exacerbate tensions, and prolonging and expanding the conflict will only make ordinary people pay an even heftier price,” China’s UN Deputy Ambassador Dai Bing told the UN General Assembly.

Dai stressed that China’s position is that the warring sides should begin peace talks as soon as possible. “We reiterate our appeal that diplomacy and negotiation cannot be abandoned, and efforts towards ceasefire and talks must go on,” he said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has claimed that the US has information that China is “considering” arming Russia, but Beijing has denied the accusation. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the US was considering releasing intelligence that shows Beijing is weighing whether to supply Russia with weapons, but it’s not clear what information the US actually has.

In the early days of the war, US officials claimed Russia asked China for military assistance. But it was later revealed by a report from NBC News that the US didn’t have “hard evidence” to back up the claim.

China and Russia have drawn closer together since Russia invaded Ukraine one year ago as they face similar pressure from the West, but there’s still no sign that Beijing has decided to send weapons. Chinese officials maintain it’s their policy not to arm either side.


Was the news we got just to rattle our chains about China?

China has done something the US and NATO has not done….offered a possible peace plan…..

Although Ukraine didn’t rule it out, NATO and EU leaders were dismissive of a 12-point peace proposal issued Friday by China, saying its increasing ties to Russia disqualify the Beijing government from playing mediator. “China doesn’t have much credibility,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, “because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine.” China’s highest-ranking diplomat promised to strengthen its relationship with Russia on a trip to Moscow this week, the Guardian reports, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said China appears to be considering supplying weapons to Russia.

The proposal is addressed more to other nations, without calling for specific steps by Ukraine or Russia. It uses stern wording in opposing the use of nuclear weapons or the threat of it, as well as the development of chemical and biological weapons. “Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis avoided,” the document says, while urging other nations to facilitate peace negotiations in which China would play a role. Other admonitions appear aimed at the US and the West, as when it warns against “expanding military blocs”—as in NATO.

That’s a Russian argument rejected by Ukraine and the West, that the war was started to keep Ukraine out of NATO, and it appears five lines into the paper. Many in the West saw the flaws in the proposal, which calls the fighting “the Ukraine crisis” and not a war, as fundamental. “The position paper doesn’t take into account who is the aggressor and who is the victim of an illegal and unjustified war of aggression,” an EU spokeswoman said, per Politico. China’s Foreign Ministry released the proposal on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, which was marked by protests around the world.

The proposal also condemns a “Cold War mentality,” a term that often refers to the United States and the U.S.-European military alliance NATO. “The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” the proposal says. Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded a promise that Ukraine will not join the bloc before the invasion.

Other points call for a cease-fire, peace talks, protection for prisoners of war and stopping attacks on civilians, without elaborating, as well as keeping nuclear power plants safe and facilitating grain exports.

The 12 points are:

  1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
  2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality
  3. Ceasing hostilities
  4. Resuming peace talks
  5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis
  6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs)
  7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe
  8. Reducing strategic risks
  9. Facilitating grain exports
  10. Stopping unilateral sanctions
  11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable
  12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction

The initial reaction from Kyiv was dismissive, with a senior adviser to President Zelensky saying any plan to end the war must involve the withdrawal of Russian troops to borders in place when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

However, Zelensky himself struck a more receptive tone in a news conference to mark the first anniversary of the conflict.

Not to worry the US will continue to dump money into Ukraine….so everyone is happy.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Ukraine: The China Gambit

The US is sinking tons of cash into the Ukraine/Russia conflict….and now there is a chance the China will join the fray…..

On the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US appears to be increasingly alarmed that China is about to start helping Vladimir Putin in a big way. If Beijing does so, it threatens not only to prolong the war but to turn the conflict into a showdown among superpowers. Coverage:

  • Weapons: Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Face the Nation on CBS News over the weekend that China is considering giving Russia “lethal support”—as in, weapons and ammunition. “We’ve made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.”
  • Other help: The US believes China already is providing nonlethal support to Moscow, reports NBC News. That might include uniforms or even body armor ahead of an expected spring offensive. Blinken said Chinese companies were providing unspecified nonlethal support, per CBS, “and, of course, in China, there’s really no distinction between private companies and the state.”
  • The implications: If China crosses the line from nonlethal to lethal aid, the consequences are significant, writes Edward Wong in a New York Times analysis. It “would transform the nature of the conflict, turning it into an epochal struggle involving all three of the world’s largest superpowers and their partners on opposing sides: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea aligned against the United States, Ukraine, and their European and Asian allies and partners, including Japan and South Korea.”
  • China responds: Blinken has been issuing warnings both publicly and privately over the last few days, and a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman says the US should butt out. “We will never accept the US pointing fingers at Sino-Russian relations or even coercing us,” said Wang Wenbin, per Reuters. What’s more, China’s top diplomat is about to visit Moscow and may visit Putin himself, the news agency reports. The diplomat, Wang Yi, previously accused the US of “hysterical” behavior over the shootdown of the infamous Chinese balloon.
  • Biden trip: The potential meeting between Putin and China’s top diplomat comes as President Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine. Biden denounce the “brutal and unjust war” before departing after a five-hour visit, per the AP.

China even has a plan to put forth a peace initiative….

Beijing plans to roll out its framework for a treaty to end the war in Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced at the Munich Security Conference. At the international summit, America’s top diplomat criticized the People’s Republic and warned of a “new Cold War.”

During his speech at the Munich event on Saturday, Wang said President Xi Jinping will soon unveil a plan to halt fighting in Ukraine, insisting his country would not “add fuel to the fire.”

“We will put forward China’s position on the political settlement on the Ukraine crisis, and stay firm on the side of peace and dialogue,” he said.

After meeting with Wang in recent days, Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he expects the Chinese proposal to be released by the end of the week.


Another turn as the year anniversary approach….looks like this is gonna be a long drawn out conflict…..just what most want.

Is this an escalation in the making?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

It’s China Again!

It seems that all the hoopla about that balloon floating over the US has some animosities toward China erupting all over the blogosphere.

That is the M-IC think tanks have all the chest thumping but what about the average Joe thinks and feels?

I am glad I asked.

A large majority of Americans support talks aimed at reducing tensions with North Korea and China, according to a survey released Friday by The Harris Poll. The results are at odds with the state of opinion in Washington, where policy elites continue to one-up each other over how to respond to an incident in which an apparent Chinese surveillance balloon flew over the U.S. in recent days.

Two-thirds of respondents agreed that the U.S. should “engage in dialogue as much as possible to reduce tensions” with China, while 20 percent said Washington should “not restart official dialogue and instead spend more money on military build-up.” Support for talks focused on deescalation went up by five points since 2021, when Harris last asked the question.

Meanwhile, 68 percent of Americans polled told Harris that President Joe Biden should offer to hold direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and 58 percent said the United States should offer diplomatic or economic incentives “in exchange for steps toward denuclearization.” 

In Washington, optimistic views of China’s geopolitical rise have soured in recent years, as demonstrated by the ongoing controversy over what appears to be a Chinese surveillance balloon. While some experts (including Pentagon officials) were quick to point out that the Chinese balloon posed no threat, the incident caused an uproar among many foreign policy elites, which no doubt contributed to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s decision to postpone a scheduled trip to Beijing this past weekend.

As for North Korea, Biden has balked at the idea of changing U.S. policy toward the isolated state, opting instead to leave severe sanctions in place while expanding military cooperation with South Korea. And increased tensions with Russia and China have largely pushed issues related to North Korea to the periphery of policy making conversations.

Harris conducted the online survey from January 17-19 on behalf of the American Friends Service Committee, a prominent Quaker anti-war organization. The results are weighted to be representative and are based on a sample of 2063 American adults.

The pollsters also found increased support (59 percent) for establishing a diplomatic presence in North Korea since 2021, when a slim majority of respondents (52 percent) approved of the idea. 

Americans far less hawkish on North Korea and China than policy elites: poll

I find this poll interesting….Americans seem to want hostilities to weaken with China and North Korea but are chest thumping primates when it comes to an actually shooting match.

The poll is not an indication of what I read on IST….so I am a bit skeptical of the results of the poll.

Only the Pentagon knows what is really happening….and they will NEVER tell the American people the truth.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Could The Balloon Be The Beginning?

We all are well aware of the balloon incident….the media, the Pentagon and the right wingers got lots of print over the balloon violating our space….but did you know that this was not the first time it had happened?

Just to keep you in the loop….

…a senior Pentagon official briefing reporters was more specific, saying it happened three times under the Trump administration and at least once under Biden.

The official said that Chinese balloons “transited the continental United States briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time.”

Fox News reported that at least one Chinese balloon flew over Florida and Texas during the Trump administration, but President Trump and former top officials in his administration strongly denied the claim.

Later, an unnamed senior Biden administration official claimed to Fox that the balloons that transited over the US during the Trump administration were only “discovered” after he left office. “They went undetected,” the administration official said.

The Triad, Pentagon, media and right wingers, are making hay out of this situation….but why?

Could it be to help the prediction made by a Pentagon official?

A four-star US Air Force general thinks a war between the US and China is only two years away and has ordered his forces to start preparing for the conflict.

In a memo obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of Air Mobility Command, said of a war with China, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”

AMC is a major command of the US Air Force and is responsible for transportation and refueling. Nearly 50,000 airmen are members of AMC, and the command oversees about 430 aircraft.

Rep. Michael McCaul, the new chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that he believes Minihan’s prediction is right. “I hope he is wrong. … I think he is right though,” McCaul told Fox News on Sunday.

But China has stepped up its military activity around Taiwan due to increasing US support for Taipei. Despite Beijing’s warnings, the US continues to boost ties with Taiwan, including by providing unprecedented military aid. At some point, this support could become intolerable for China, and Beijing could take actions short of an invasion, such as a blockade or attacking small islands that Taiwan controls off mainland China’s coast.

A war between the US and China could also be sparked in the South China Sea, where the US has increased its military presence in recent years. US and Chinese warplanes and warships occasionally have close encounters in the area, and with US-China relations at such a low point, an accident could spiral into a wider conflict.

Minihan told the officers he commands to report all major efforts they take to prepare for war with China by February 28. He said during the month of February, all AMC personnel should “fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.”

Minihan also called for his personnel to get their affairs in order as they prepare for war. He said in the month of March, they should “consider their personal affairs and whether a visit should be scheduled with their servicing base legal office to ensure they are legally ready and prepared.”


Now I know that there are those out there that will have strong opinions on this developing situation.

So let them fly.

Could this situation of the balloon be the beginning?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Up, Up And Away My Beautiful Balloon

For at least a week the eyes of America and the media has been on the “Chinese’ balloon floating over the US….now the country can rest quietly the damn thing has been shot down.

US Air Force fighter jet on Saturday shot down a balloon launched by China that was suspected of spying as it floated over several states and inflamed tension between the nations. The balloon came down in the Atlantic Ocean, off the South Carolina coast, the AP reports. Recovery efforts began immediately. President Biden afterward praised the US forces involved. “I ordered the Pentagon to shoot it down on Wednesday as soon as possible,” he said. Military leaders decided the operation would pose the least danger to people on the ground if the balloon was shot down “when it got over water within our 12-mile limit,” Biden said, per the New York Times.

F-22 fighter jets from Langley Air Force Base in Virginia were deployed, per CNN, and fired a single AIM-9X missile at 2:39pm ET when the balloon was about 6 nautical miles from Myrtle Beach. The FAA had imposed ground stops and closed airspace over parts of the Carolinas earlier in the afternoon, saying the move was to “support the Department of Defense in a national security effort,” per the Washington Post. The Coast Guard also had told sea traffic to leave the area, anticipating debris would be scattered over a large area. The military tried to time the operation so that crews could reach the debris, projected to fall in US territorial waters, before it sinks.

Calling the operation “a lawful action” in a statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said China was using the balloon “to surveil strategic sites.” The balloon, which was floating at an altitude of 60,000 feet, had been spotted Saturday over Charlotte and South Carolina’s Greenville County. Jeffrey Billie of Pawleys Island, South Carolina, saw the balloon come down, per the Times. “It was two fighter jets dancing with this thing going around and around it,” he said. Next, a third jet appeared and fired the missile as the balloon moved over the water. “Then, of course, the round big white ball that we saw—all of a sudden it looked like a shriveled Kleenex,” he said. Another Chinese balloon is over Latin America, Pentagon officials said.

Can we put this to bed?

But not before I share something I read on Twitter…..

The Halfway Post
BREAKING: 6 local conservatives in South Carolina have accidentally shot themselves in gun accidents while attempting to shoot down the Chinese balloon.
Is this a valid story?  Is this satire?
I suspect it is satire but knowing the idiots and their guns it has a ring of accuracy.
If so I cannot laugh enough on this Sunday.
I do not follow this site so I cannot say the accuracy of the report….but….still damn funny.
Can we now put this diversion to bed now?
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”

Who Owns The Moon?

The US has walked on the Moon and all the predictions are that we shall return to doing so in the very near future…..

But apparently word has been issued by China that the US would not be allowed to walk on the Moon….yes you read that right….”not allowed”….

There is a new space race happening more than five decades after the United States beat Russia to become the first nation to ever put on a human on the moon. This time, the contenders are the U.S. and China. And if China wins, it could cause serious trouble for the rest of the world, according to NASA chief Bill Nelon.

During an interview with Politico, Nelson and several other experts expressed concern over China’s attempt to land on the moon before NASA’s expected 2025 touchdown. They believe that the country could stake a claim on areas that are rich in minerals and other resources and block other countries from making a lunar journey.

“There is potentially mischief China can do on the moon,” warned Terry Virts, the former commander of the International Space Station. “If they set up infrastructure there they could potentially deny communications, for example. Having them there doesn’t make things easier. There is real concern about Chinese meddling.”

The chief and the others from NASA worry that China is attempting to reach the moon “under the guise of scientific research.” But nations should worry that their work is actually a power tactic.


My question is when did China take ownership of the Moon?

But is China that advanced that they now control the Moon?

“It is a fact: We’re in a space race,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told Politico in a recent interview. And it’s not just about politics and bragging rights—there are both national security and practical implications, according to many US officials. “We better watch out that [the Chinese] don’t get to a place on the moon under the guise of scientific research,” Nelson added. “It is not beyond the realm of possibility that they say, ‘Keep out, we’re here, this is our territory.'” Meanwhile, America’s space agency got almost all the money it wanted from Congress, including full funding for key components of the Artemis program, which seeks to put a permanent human presence on the moon by 2025. Much depends on whether SpaceX delivers on its promises.

Artemis may be ambitious, but it’s the Chinese program that has developed in “stunningly fast” fashion and with “enormous success and advances,” particularly in the past decade. As Fortunereported last month, construction of the Tiangong (“heavenly palace”) space station is complete, and the first three-person team of “taikonauts” are in orbit conducting science experiments. Unlike the collaborative International Space Station, Tiangong is entirely managed by one nation, highlighting China’s “self-reliance” as it works toward its “larger space ambitions.” As for moon exploration, China has already expressed its “pioneering ability” by collecting samples and establishing communications from the far side of the moon, per Politico.

American scientists and military officials have expressed a fair amount of concern about Chinese ambitions, based in part on how China has asserted itself in the Pacific around the disputed Spratly Islands. China vehemently rejects suggestions that it intends to lay claim to any celestial real estate, and some experts say existing treaties—together with more friendly, collaborative engagement—should be sufficient to keep the peace. Still, there are practical matters at stake, including competition for a limited number of good moon-landing sites with access to water and other resources.

This Moon thing will be interesting to watch…..But first I guess we have to get beyond the South China Sea thing…..

Watch and Learn!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Is China A Serious Threat?

We hear almost daily of what a growing problem China is becoming.

But is China a serious threat?

I realize that we need an enemy to keep the defense industry profitable…..I mean we have Russia right now but is that perceived threat going to last?

According to the MSM and the Pentagon China is just that.

Again I ask…Is it?

China’s recently concluded 20th Party Congress was highlighted visually by the Godfather-like scene of former president Hu Jintao being abruptly escorted off stage as an indifferent Xi Jinping mumbled a brief word to his predecessor and then let him depart. The results of the Congress were to consolidate control even further for Xi, as he prepares for a third five-year term in office with no signs of slowing down.  

Onlookers have understandably worried about a strengthening autocracy under Xi. Given that China has become more powerful during Xi’s reign, less tolerant of dissent at home, and more menacing to its neighbors as well, Xi’s strengthening position would seem to portend a more dangerous China in the years ahead. Together, these developments seem to support the Biden administration’s view, as expressed in its new National Security Strategy, that China represents America’s “most consequential strategic challenge” — even as it is Vladimir Putin’s Russia that rains down missiles and artillery on Ukraine, while driving up global energy and food prices and issuing nuclear threats to the world.

There is ample reason to worry about China, to be sure. The Pentagon has good cause to describe it as our “pacing challenge,” given that China’s military budget of some $250 billion to $350 billion is far and away the world’s second largest, its research and development efforts with national security relevance the second largest as well, and its manufacturing base easily the planet’s biggest. These realities combined with China’s avowed desire to absorb Taiwan back into the motherland as soon as possible, and its dangerous military activities in the western Pacific in general, give serious pause. 

But we need to approach the China threat with perspective. For all its potential seriousness, there remain at least three objective realities and structural restraints on China’s behavior to date. Factoring them into the equation should not make us lower our guard, or relent in the various kinds of economic and military efforts we are now making in the interest of vigilance. But our outlook should be tempered by a certain calm, especially in regard to handling crises that may occur in the western Pacific. China may now be the No. 1 strategic challenge to the United States, but it is not public enemy No. 1.

Just how ominous is the China threat?

All I am saying is that all aspects of the ‘threat’ needs to be looked at….we should not take the words from people and institutions that are on the payroll of the defense industry.

I am sure that there will be many more reports on the ‘seriousness’ of the Chinese threat….and we should make sure of the threat before we do anything stupid.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“kego ergo scribo”