Note: I get juiced this morning early so I will be down for the count….chemo has that effect…..hopefully I will be at full strength come Saturday…..Have a good day.
It has been announced and it has been on unstable ground since that day…..but just for the FYI here are the points of each side….
US 15 Point Proposals Now
1) US will remove all sanctions on Iran
2) It will cease all threats to reimpose sanctions
3) Iran’s nuclear program will be frozen under a defined framework
4) US will assist Iran in developing a civilian nuclear project
5) There will be limit on enriched uranium to remain under supervision
6) US agrees to address the Iranian missile program at a later date
7) Iran’s nuclear program will be restricted to civilian purposes only
8) Iran will halt the development of existing nuclear facilities & capabilities
9) Iran will discontinue further expansion of enrichment capabilities
10) No production of weapons-grade nuclear material to occur on Iranian soil
11) Iran will hand over all enriched materials to the IAEA on an agreed timeline
12) Iran’s Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities will be taken out of use
13) International monitoring and verification mechanisms
14) Implementations will be gradual and tied to compliance
15) Both sides to discuss additional regional and security issues
Then there is the counter from Iran….
Iran’s Current 10 Point Proposal
1) Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2) Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3) End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4) Lifting of all sanctions on Iran
5) End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6) In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7) Iran will determine the rules of safe passage through Hormuz
8) A Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
9) Iran would split these fees with Oman
10) Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
Let’s pretend that this ceasefire holds…..who won?
So who’s winning, or has won, the Iran war thus far? Who’s losing?
Iran has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and to negotiate. But it will still run the Hormuz strait. It will collect fees. Higher global oil prices means it will make even more money from oil sales. That can buy a lot of Chinese radars and Russian anti-aircraft systems. The US will not control the Hormuz in any way. Iran will set the rules and control the strait, in cooperation with one or two friendlier Gulf states (Oman, maybe Qatar?)
Iran will replenish and accelerate production and development of its missiles and drone programs.
The Iran war—like the Ukraine war—means military power has changed radically. Surface ships are sitting ducks. Even 5th generation aircraft if they get too close. War is now about hypersonic missiles, autonomous weapons, massed drones in the air, on and under the water, low orbit satellites and surveillance—and of course economic destabilization.
The most important question remains: what will Israel do should US and Iran agree to a deal (or don’t)? Trump and the Iranians can agree to all they want. Israel will not necessarily abide by it (even if it says it will). When the dust settles, Israel will again try to find a way to lure America into its wars of expansion in the middle east.
(counterpunch.org)
Will this actually hold a peace in the region?
I think not for Israel does not want a peace for the region.
What say you?
Just FYI….Iran is claiming victory…..
US forces secured a “historic and overwhelming victory” over Iran, defense chief Pete Hegseth declared Wednesday, adding that “Iran proved utterly incapable of defending itself.” Iran, of course, begs to differ, with its national security council boasting that it delivered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat” to its foes, per the Wall Street Journal. A Washington Post piece finds that behind the bluster, neither side is a “clear winner,” but the newspaper is among a number of outlets exploring why Tehran is maintaining victory. The short version: The regime survived, albeit after losing key figures; Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz; and it still possesses a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, per Politico.
“What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the US economy” by shutting down the strait and sending oil prices soaring, Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute tells the Journal. “They made sure the war was felt in the US,” he says, adding, “I don’t think Trump’s going to try that again.” And even after the ceasefire, Iran continues to maintain control over which ships are allowed to navigate the strait. “The implication: Iran is intent on using its newfound control over the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf as leverage over Trump as the Islamic Republic seeks to rebuild its power after the biggest threat to its survival in decades,” writes David S. Cloud of the Journal.
The Post, meanwhile, notes that crowds filled the streets of Tehran after the ceasefire announcement, triumphantly waving their nation’s flag, far from the “unconditional surrender” President Trump had previously demanded. Not that Iran emerged unscathed: In additon to the relentless bombing attacks from the US and Israel, it is now more isolated than ever in the region because of its attacks on neighboring nations. Still, as one Asian diplomat tells Politico of Hegseth’s threat to resume strikes if necessary, “Declaring victory by saying he will attack Iran some more seems like losing.”
What say you?
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”