On This Day In The Middle East

You guys know how I like to drop some history some of the time…well today in 1974 was a memorable day in Middle East history……Turkey invades Cyprus……Greece and Turkey fight to a stalemate…..

In July 1974 a chain of events resulted in Turkey invading Cyprus under the pretext that it was a peace operation to bring back peace and stability to the island. The outcome of this invasion has been far reach and still impacts the island and its inhabitants today; it also impacts Turkey and the wider global powers too.

The outcome of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus has resulted in Turkey recognising the independence of the north of Cyprus from the south, but no other country doing so. To find out more about this Turkish invasion of Cyprus read on.

http://www.thefinertimes.com/War-in-The-Middle-East/the-turkish-invasion-of-cyprus.html

The island is still divided between Greek and Turkish interests…..but there is some movement to a peaceful end…..

https://legationes.wordpress.com/2016/01/08/the-greco-turkish-animosities/

https://lobotero.com/2018/02/21/turkey-gets-cocky/

Your history lesson is done for the day…now that did not hurt right?

Advertisements

When Is Peace Not Peace?

After many years of negotiations the novice to any peace in the Middle East has a plan and his father in law has apparently signed in on….and the cowards of the Middle East……Jordan, UAE, Egypt and the extremists in Saudi Arabia have signaled that they will back any moronic plan that the Trump group can come up with.

Trump is letting his son-in-law do the deal that so many have tried and failed…..and what this tool Kushner has proposed will do nothing to bring peace…..

Is there no humiliation left for the Palestinians? After Oslo, after the “two state solution”, after the years of Israeli occupation – of “Area A” and “Area C” to define which kind of occupation the Palestinians must live under – after the vast Jewish colonisation of land thieved from its Arab owners, after the mass killings of Gaza, and Trump’s decision that Jerusalem, all of Jerusalem, must be the capital of Israel, are the Palestinians going to be asked to settle for cash and a miserable village? Is there no shame left?

For the Palestinians are soon to be awarded the “ultimate deal” – “ultimate”, as in the last, definitive, terminal, conclusive, no-more-cards-to-play, cash-in-your-chips, go-for-broke, take-it-or-leave-it, to-hell-with-you, cease-and-desist, endgame “deal”. A pitiful village as a capital, no end to colonisation, no security, no army, no independent borders, no unity – in return for a huge amount of money, billions of dollars and euros, millions of pounds, zillions of dinars and shekels and spondulix and filthy lucre, the real

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/palestine-jared-kushner-ultimate-plan-israel-donald-trump-jerusalem-right-to-return-a8420836.html

There is NOTHING in his plan that would appeal to a Palestinian and yet he is allowed to speak for them……where have we seen this sort of “plan” before…….think hard….history is not that difficult.

Four Arab countries are backing Donald Trump’s plan for a settlement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, according to an Israeli newspaper, and are willing to sideline the PA’s President Mahmoud Abbas to see it done.

According to a report in Israel Hayom, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan told Jared Kushner, the US President Trump’s son-in-law and the man charged with solving the Israel-Palestine issue, and envoy Jason Greenblatt they were behind Washington’s so-called “deal of the century”.

Israel Hayom, a daily newspaper owned by billionaires Miriam and Sheldon Adelson, reported that it spoke to officials from the four Arab countries.

The officials are said to have told the paper that their countries have decided to back the US plan regardless of whether Abbas and the PA engage with it.

I do not trust anything that the creep Adelson would print…..he has wanted the destruction of the Palestinian people for decades….he is a murderer at heart like his illegal state.

Jordan has been called the key to any deal….does that include a whitewash of any peace deal that favors Israel?

Upon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returning on June 18 from his first public visit to Jordan in four years, his office issued a truly minimalist statement on his meeting with King Abdullah II at the Royal Palace in Amman. The first sentence said the two had “discussed regional developments, advancing the peace process and bilateral relations,” its banality highlighting the sole and interesting message in the second sentence: “PM Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s commitment to maintaining the status quo at the holy sites in Jerusalem.”

Any deal the Kushner, Adelson and any like minded people will be no help to Palestine or its people it will always be for the benefit of Israel……

Honor, like integrity, is not a commodity,  like a gilded condominium in New York City for sale to the highest bidder. Nor does it license a messenger to whisper through a backdoor that which cannot be said through the front because it’s been closed for want of fairness and respect.

Yet, having been rebuked by Palestinian leadership due to the shameful move of the US Embassy to the capital of Palestine that is precisely what Jared Kushner has tried to do with his deceitful appeal to the Palestinian people in his recent interview with Al Quds.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06/29/the-peace-deal-that-is-all-israel/

Any deal that does not include equitable treatment of Palestinians will be no peace at all….and so far I have seen nothing that resembles equity.

More on The Kushner Plan…….

…in his first-ever interview with a Palestinian newspaper, the U.S. president’s son-in-law and Middle East peace envoy said that despite appearances to the contrary, “prospects for peace are very much alive” and confirmed that the administration is getting ready to release its long-awaited plan for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Asked how that plan is different from previous efforts, Kushner explained he has done “a lot of listening” and is convinced the Palestinian people are “less invested in the politicians’ talking points” than they are in seeing how a deal will improve their prospects for a better life.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/kushner-israeli-palestinian-peace-plan/563606/

Syria’s “Manbij Model”

There seems to be a deal brewing for some sort of ceasefire for Northeastern Syria between the US and Turkey……it is being called the “Manbij Model”….

The US and Turkey finally reached a deal to jointly administer the strategic city of Manbij following the YPG’s withdrawal from it, and this promising agreement is being touted as a model for Ayn al-Arab (more popularly known in the Mainstream Media by its Kurdish name “Kobani”), Raqqa, and other population centers in the northeastern agriculturally and energy-rich one-third of Syria under American-Kurdish SDF occupation. The working concept as articulated by Turkey at the moment but importantly unconfirmed by the US is to gradually return to the pre-war ethnic status quo in the region either by physically reversing the effects of anti-Arab and –“Turkmen” ethnic cleansing (which is unlikely) or at the very least not recognizing its political consequences in the sense of refusing to allow the minority Kurds to be the majority stakeholders in each city that they’ve conquered.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-manbij-model-turkey-us-deal-for-northeastern-syria/5643287

A ceasefire is always more preferable than the shooting and killing however in this case I want to know where the Syrian input is……US and Turkey are invaders and now occupiers and last I looked Syria was a sovereign nation whether the like the leadership or not…it still is a nation and we should have no say on the control of its territory or its people.

Meanwhile Back In The Middle East

My area of some little amount of expertise has been ignored because of all the situations that have turned in the Koreas….look for Iran to come into focus soon….they have neutralized North Korea (for now) and the interventionists need a foe to focus on and the most logical one is Iran.

The deal that Trump pulled out of because it was made by Obama will now have his art of the deal to fall back on and get that better deal (or go to war)……

Iran is claiming to be the protector of the world’s Shia population……but is it?

Iran’s contemporary foreign policy approach is shaped by a worldview introduced by the 1979 Islamic revolution.

  • Iran’s hardline Shia regime rode a tidal wave of popular support into power during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Mass demonstrations in February 1979 led to the fall of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the former Iran leader known as the Shah, and the return of exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who claimed the title of Supreme Leader in December 1979 and served in that capacity until his death in June 1989.
  • Ayatollah Ali Khamenei succeeded Khomeini as Iran’s Supreme Leader in June 1989 and has since served as the country’s most powerful figure.
  • Other key figures in the Iranian regime include President Hassan Rouhani, who was reelected to a second four-year term in May after campaigning on the success of the Iran nuclear agreement. In addition, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif helped negotiate the Iran nuclear deal and Maj. Gen. Qasem Soulemani is the head of the elite Quds Force, which operates as the external wing of Iran’s ideologically driven, preeminent paramilitary force known as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or the “guardians” of the revolution.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/irans-hegemonic-quest

Iran is more active in the Iraqi situation, the domestic side, it is backing alliances for the control of the country…..

Iraq may form a government that undermines U.S. interests, tries to eject the U.S. from the region, and supports Iran. Nationalist Iraqi Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has allied with Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of the coalition of Iranian-backed militias and their political wings. Sadr and Ameri lead the two winningest alliances in Iraq’s federal legislative elections and are nearing the 165-seat threshold necessary to form a government if Shi’a cleric Ammar al-Hakim (19 seats) and secularist Ayad Allawi (21 seats) follow through on their previously announced intention to ally with Sadr.

Sadr and Ameri will likely attempt to woo current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi or former Prime Minister and current Vice President Nouri al-Maliki to gain support of one of their coalitions, or alternatively seek to fragment both leaders’ respective coalitions to form a government. They may also seek to gain support from some or all Kurdish parties and Iran friendly Sunni parties in order to reach the government formation threshold. Both Sadr and Ameri may push for the full expulsion of U.S. forces from Iraq and will further the entrenchment of Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces in the Iraqi security apparatus.

Sadr’s militias fought the US tooth and nail for control…..and now he has it through the vote.

All this and Iran’s influence in OPEC will give the interventionists like John Bolton all the ammo they need to ramp up the rhetoric for war with Iran.

He, Trump, should have left the nuke deal in place but his jealousy of Obama would not allow that to occur…..I do not think his love for dictators will play well when dealing with Iran….but I could be mistaken….even dictators like to have their ego stroked.

 

Then There Is Syria

No Irene the war in Syria has not ended…..BTW, how did ISIS get all that American weaponry that they have been using in the past?  Just wondering….

The US has NO plan in Syria other than fighting bad guys even Congress has asked for some sort of idea of what the plan is in Syria….

In a report accompanying the Senate’s must-pass annual defense authorization bill, lawmakers this week called out the Pentagon for “inconsistency” in its plan for Syria. US defense officials say that 2,000 US troops will stay there indefinitely, until the Islamic State (IS) is rooted out, despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that American forces leave the country “very soon.”

The Senate bill freezes $300 million requested for Syrian opposition fighters until the administration gives Congress an overdue and legally mandated outline of its plan for destroying the remnants of IS and stabilizing Syria. The bill also pegs $400 million for the anti-IS fight in next-door Iraq to a report on the “roles, missions and responsibilities of any future US military presence” in that country.

“The committee is deeply concerned by the lack of clarity and conflicting messages from administration officials related to the Middle East and, specifically, Syria,” according to the Senate Armed Services report. The report adds that the committee “believes that the activities of the US military in Syria are not adequately integrated into a broader strategy designed to stabilize Syria and address the factors that gave rise” to IS.

The problem is also that Russia has designs on Syria and that is where we should be most concerned…..

Partners in the Syrian war and arch sceptics of Washington, Russia and Iran have come together in recent years as both countries pursue a more hands-on role in the Middle East.

Yet doubts about Russia’s reliability are surfacing in Tehran, as a host of regional players begin to pick their way through tensions in southern Syria.

For weeks, there have been signs that Russia is trying limit Iran’s military activity in Syria.

On 17 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that with the Syrian army’s recent victories, foreign forces should withdraw from Syria. When asked for clarification, Putin’s envoy said that the president was referring to Turkish, American, Iranian and Hezbollah soldiers.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-wants-iran-out-syria-iranians-arent-so-happy-about-1850822925

Russia is replacing the US as the indispensable player in the region….

The U.S. is no longer the indispensable nation in the Middle East — it’s Russia. Putin has more control in this powder keg than American experts like to admit.

Who told Israel to “cool it” after their F-16 jet was shot down by Syrian forces? Russia. Who told Iran to knock off its toxic anti-Israel rhetoric? Russia. Who told Israel to stop airstrikes in Syria? Russia. Who told Iran to “calm down” after they lost seven soldiers in the attack? Russia. Who did Netanyahu meet last week to get Iran in line? Russia. Russia has even vowed to protect Israel from an Iranian attack.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/forget-iran-russia-is-the-real-threat-to-the-us-in-the-middle-east.html

Russia is replacing the US in all areas and the US seems to be oblivious to the fact that we are losing our control of foreign policy….

Since the 1980’s the US has been trying to destroy Assad’s hold on Syria…..I found a CIA document that outlines what the US needs to do….

Yet, despite the fact that the Trump administration is apparently poised to continue the Obama regime’s proxy war of aggression against the people of Syria, an example of seamless transition, it should also be remembered that the plan to destroy Syria did not begin with Obama but with the Bush administration.

Even now, as the world awaits the continuation of the Syrian war through a Democratic and Republican administration, the genesis of that war goes back to the Republican Bush administration, demonstrating that there is indeed an overarching agenda and an overarching infrastructure of an oligarchical deep state intent on moving forward regardless of which party is seemingly in power.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-10/1983-cia-document-reveals-plan-destroy-syria-foreshadows-current-crisis

This is the document for those that care about the war and the policies behind the war…..

https://www.scribd.com/document/344768700/CIA-Syria-Pipelines

The Democracy That Was Iraq

After 15 years of occupation and several elections that no one wanted the Iraqis have had another election…..this is a good thing because that was what we came to Iraq for …..to give them democracy.

Iraq just held their latest election and to the surprise of the US their greatest critic and opponent of the occupation, Sadr, has won the vote for prime minister.

The pundits have called for a recount (simply because their man did not win)……there is lots of opinion on what will happen…..

Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose political bloc won the May 12 election, is rejecting calls by other factions to hold a re-run of the vote, saying certain factions are trying to start a civil war with all the allegations around the elections.

Sadr warned it was “time to stand as one for building and reconstruction instead of burning ballot boxes or repeating election just for one seat or two.” Some of the re-vote advocates, like the parliament speaker, lost their seats in the election.

The election’s votes were initially counted electronically, and parliament has since called for a full recount. The fire in Baghdad, at one of the ballot warehouses, has fueled even more claims of a cover-up of the results.

(antiwar.com)

Now some are calling for a new election……Abadi is doing the whining and the US is listening….all are worried about a Sadr leadership…..

With Iraqi parliament’s ordered recount at least somewhat derailed by a weekend fire at one of the ballot warehouses in Baghdad some officials are calling for a revote. A spokesman for PM Hayder Abadi, however, says only the Supreme Court can make that happen.

“This is a matter for the Federal Court and not for the executive branch,” noted Saad al-Hadithi, when asked for Abadi’s comments on the parliamentary speaker’s demand to repeat the vote. It’s not clear how the mechanism for such a re-run would work.

(antiwar.com)

As usual the US promotes democracy until it bites them in the ass….and a Shia backed PM will bite the hardest, especially considering who the new PM is and his history with the US…..

As parliamentarians in Baghdad work to form a new governing coalition in the wake of this month’s elections, their counterparts in Washington are seeking to sanction more than a dozen of the Iraqi legislators over their links to Iran.

The House of Representatives unanimously voted last week on legislation requiring President Donald Trump to sanction “persons that are officials, agents, affiliates of or owned and controlled by” two prominent Iran-backed militias that operate in Iraq and Syria. The amendment from Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, to a must-pass annual defense authorization bill targets Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, both of which are part of the Shiite-led Popular Mobilization Units battling the Islamic State.

Typical US actions…..if you do not like the election results then try to overturn them….Iraq will be no different than Chile.

Israel And Nukes

First of all, Israel has never admitted that they have nukes…..so we go along pretending that they are just spectators…..

They are not and they have a strategy for nukes…..here is part one and two explaining their strategy……

By definition, as long as particular countries regard their nuclear status as an asset, every state that is a member of the so-called nuclear club is a direct beneficiary of the Cold War. This is because all core elements of any national nuclear strategy, whether actual or still-contemplated, were originally conceptualized, shaped, and even codified within the earlier bipolar struggles of post World War II international relations.[1] Nonetheless, as the world now enters into a more-or-less resurrected form of this initial struggle the strategic postures of each extant nuclear weapons state are being modified within the still-developing parameters of Cold War II.

These parameters, it follows, warrant very careful further study by both scholars and policy makers. Already, they are in constant flux, transient, changing in both foreseeable and prospectively unseen ways. Among other things, such critical parameters or boundaries will become increasingly vital and potentially even determinative. In this regard, a great deal will depend upon the precise manner in which this reborn bipolar rivalry impacts the various basic elements and circumstances of nuclear deterrence postures.

https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2018/5/29/israels-nuclear-strategy-enhancing-deterrence-in-the-new-cold-war-part-i

and then there is Part Two…….

This article will continue the examination of Israel’s nuclear strategy begun with “Israel’s Nuclear Strategy: Enhancing Deterrence in the new Cold War.” Specifically, Part II will address Israel’s core nuclear deterrence posture. In Part I, we posited the prospective importance of any re-born superpower rivalry upon this posture. Most critically, Israel’s nuclear strategy will depend, in meaningful measure, upon the expected rationality and irrationality of its friends and foes, and upon a broad variety of plausible synergies between allied and adversarial actions. Recalling Thomas Hobbes’ 17th-century prophetic description of a “state of war” not just “actual fighting,” but also a “known disposition thereto,” Part I ended with specific and informed references to certain considered modifications of Israel’s deliberate nuclear ambiguity, and also to its need for further expansion and codification of formal nuclear military doctrine.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/06/05/israels_nuclear_strategy_part_ii_113511.html

Now that we have looked into Israel’s nuke strategy is there a good reason to have done so……

Let’s back up a bit….a few months ago there were stories about the Trump admin wanting to help the Saudis develop their nuke energy program……the problem is and I wrote about it when I heard this plan…that they were more interested in weapons than energy….

Then I read something disturbing…….

 The Israeli government has begun selling the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia information on how to develop nuclear weapons, according to a senior official at the Israeli military organization iHLS (Israel’s Homeland Security). Ami Dor-on, a senior nuclear commentator at the organization — which is partially funded by U.S. weapons-giant Raytheon – came forward because of his concern over the emerging nuclear arms race in the region. The cooperation between the two countries in helping the Saudis to develop a nuclear weapons program is just the latest sign of their warming relationship, with Israel recently calling the Saudi crown prince “a partner of Israel.”

Israel has been a nuclear power for decades, though its nuclear arsenal is undeclared and the country has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Estimates of its arsenal vary, with most suggesting that Israel possesses from 100 to 200 nuclear weapons. Israel was aided in the development of its nuclear program by Western powers, particularly France. Much of the Western “help” Israel received, however, was the result of covert thefts of nuclear material from countries such as the United States and Belgium.

http://theantimedia.com/israel-helping-saudi-arabia-nuclear-weapons/

Are the Saudis playing a dangerous game?  Some, like myself, think they are indeed…….

After months of relative silence from Saudi Arabia, this was a noisy weekend. For the second time since he was named heir to the throne last June, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced a major Cabinet reshuffle, this time focusing on ministries related to culture, Islamic life and social development. Just one day earlier, French newspaper Le Monde reported that the crown prince had sent a letter to French President Emmanuel Macron threatening to attack Qatar, the target of last year’s Saudi-led blockade, if Doha acquired Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. Last but not least, Israeli news site News1 published an article about Saudi Arabia’s plans to develop nuclear weapons capabilities, potentially with help from Pakistan or Israel.

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2018/06/04/saudi_arabia_is_playing_a_dangerous_game_112817.html?

This news should worry anyone interested in the Middle East…..the Saudis are developing and Iran has tried to give up their ambitions…..this could change the dynamics of any negotiations around the nukes in the Middle East.

This will not escape my scrutiny……how soon before friends become enemies?