Tag: Middle East

Is Our Middle East Influence Dwindling?

For decades the US has had considerable influence in the Middle East especially in the 70s when Carter helped broker the agreement between Israel and Egypt which made the possibility of a peace in the region possible…..but that hope was dashed on the rocks of disappointment with the election of Reagan in 1980.

It seems that since 1980 our influence has been sliding off the scale.

Are we being replaced?

You decide….in March it was announced the China had brokered a deal between Saudi and Iran that could end centuries of alienation….

Iran and Saudi Arabia have been exploring improving relations for the past few years. The feelers began with talks in 2020 and grew into several meetings in Iraq and Oman. In 2021, the two announced that Iran had resumed exports to Saudi Arabia, and Iran broached the idea of reopening consulates in each other’s countries and re-establishing diplomatic ties.

Both the Iranian and Saudi statements following their new agreement acknowledged those talks and thanked Iraq and Oman for their efforts and for hosting them. But it was China that brought them to the table, enabled the breakthrough and accomplished the agreement. “The two sides,” the Saudi statement said, “expressed their appreciation and gratitude to the leadership and government of the People’s Republic of China for hosting and sponsoring the talks, and the efforts it placed towards its success.” Iran’s statement expressed similar gratitude.

The two countries also agreed to “implement . . . the General Agreement for Cooperation in the Fields of Economy, Trade, Investment, Technology, Science, Culture, Sports, and Youth” that was signed on May 27, 1998. This aspect of the agreement more than hints at the widening of the trail the Saudis explored blazing in 2021 to break with US sanctions of Iran.

(antiwar.com)

This flew in the face of the US and its slogan of promoting cooperation in the world’s nations.

With the success of the Saudi-Iran agreement China has offered to broker the dispute between Israel and Palestine (the US will have a cow if this comes about)….

China has offered to mediate between Israel and Palestine in the past. Its most recent pitch came during the May 2021 war between Israel and fighters in the besieged Gaza Strip, when it introduced a four-point peace proposal. An Egyptian-brokered bilateral cease-fire with US backing eventually ended the fighting.

But the new Chinese offer comes amid signs that Beijing is growing more serious about boosting its political role in the region. Last month, it brokered a deal between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic ties

(middleeasteye.net)

With all this flurry of diplomatic efforts can we ask again….Is the US losing it’s influence in the Middle East?

The Saudis organized discussions with numerous Arab foreign ministers to discuss Syria’s return to the Arab League. Al-Assad will soon be welcomed at the meetings of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is orchestrating this campaign in order to reduce the in-fighting in the Arab world. China has been far more supportive of this objective than the United States.

As a result of China’s diplomacy and Saudi willingness to pursue a rapprochement with Syria, there is greater possibility for reducing conflict in Yemen and Syria in the near turn. Immediately after the restoration of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a Saudi delegation arrived in Yemen’s capital of Sanaa to end the fighting that has caused the deaths of more than 300,000 innocent civilians. Greater stability in Syria could allow some of the 13 million Syrian refugees to return to their homes.

Beijing realizes that Washington’s one-sided support for Israel as well as its policy of non-recognition of Iran provided an opening to negotiate a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Beijing moved adroitly to act as an honest broker between Riyadh and Tehran, which should ensure China’s continued access to the oil and gas resources in both Gulf countries. China’s success should be a wake-up call to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Department of State, but there is no sign of any U.S. movement to restore its influence in the region. (This should also be a wake-up call to Israel’s national security decision makers, who can no longer assume Saudi support in a confrontation with Iran.)

Is the US Finally Losing Influence in the Middle East?

The US should be the spearhead of all this diplomacy but instead the State Department bows to the War Department on such types of programs.

So is our diplomatic programs dead or dying?

My opinion is….yes they are.

Two astounding events occurred in March – a peace pact between longtime, ferocious enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the presentation to Moscow of a peace deal for the Ukraine war. Both initiatives landed on a very startled west from China. The Middle East deal was presented to the world as a fait accompli, and it led, immediately, to arrangements for a ceasefire in Yemen, a country crucified in the proxy war between its two bigger neighbors and with lethal help from the United States. Now at last there is a real chance not only to end the butchery in Yemen, but also the larger genocide caused by starvation. Finally, food should be able to reach Yemen’s ports and thence the nation’s interior. The various UN agencies and the charities previously blocked from supplying grain to Yemen and its hungry children could soon be able to operate unhindered. This would be an unambiguous win for humanity.

But Washington was not pleased at this unexpected eruption of peace. Once it became public, CIA director William Burns quickly jetted into the Saudi kingdom to complain. As CNN reported April 6, Burns “expressed frustration with Saudi officials over Riyadh’s recent rapprochement with Iran through a diplomatic deal brokered by China as well as the kingdom’s openings with Syria.” Needless to say, this further step by Arab states toward accepting Syria poses military-political problems for the U.S., 900 of whose soldiers illegally occupy a portion of the country and have been engaged, rather ignominiously, in stealing its wheat and oil for some time. U.S. allies, that is, the Kurds, would do well to arrange an escape hatch with Damascus, otherwise they risk finding themselves at the mercy of their arch-enemy, Turkey, once Washington abandons what is becoming an increasingly untenable position.

Peacemaker No More: U.S. Diplomacy in Decline

For me it is sad to see the US becoming a non-player in diplomacy…..it is just so sad that it has been replaced with thed blood lust for war.

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A Brokered Deal

The Middle East has been a ideological battle between the two major sects of Islam….the Sunni and the Shia….the major proponents of these sects are Saudi Arabia and Iran….these divisions have lead to some bloody confrontations like the war between Iraq and Iran in the 80s.

Finally a deal has been brokered between the two…..and it was not through the work of the US to find some sort of peace for the benefit of the region.

US arch nemesis was the culprit….China.

The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume relations, a deal mediated by China, appears to be a watershed moment in the Middle East, realigning alliances that have dominated diplomacy for decades while—at least for now—leaving the US out. The pact indicates that nations in the region are willing to move beyond rivalries that seemed permanent to find new solutions without the help of the Americans, who have been involved in peace negotiations there for most of a century but now are more focused on Ukraine and Asia, per the Wall Street Journal.

Long a minor participant in Middle East issues, China has stepped in to fill the void, hosting negotiations in Beijing before announcing the agreement Friday. One analyst said there’s no denying the importance of China’s success, which eclipses President Biden’s efforts. “Yes, the United States could not have brokered such a deal right now with Iran specifically, since we have no relations,” Amy Hawthorne of the nonprofit Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington told the New York Times. “But in a larger sense, China’s prestigious accomplishment vaults it into a new league diplomatically and outshines anything the US has been able to achieve in the region since Biden came to office.”

Israel is left out, too, after lobbying Saudi Arabia; as the US decreases its involvement, allies have grown concerned about security guarantees made in the past, per the Journal. Other analysts—and Biden aides—caution against inflating the significance of the agreement, which, at bottom, promises to reopen the nations’ embassies shut since 2016. It’s a minor step, they say, toward easing tensions. Besides, “China doesn’t have the capacity to play a bigger security role in the region,” said Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, a think tank in London. But the deal does show China’s “potential to be an appealing alternative to Washington,” she said.

The final sentence of the report says it all.

This deal should have been brokered by the US but instead we let China get the upper hand…..but an incident in 1979 precludes the US from ever doing the right thing.

Is this agreement a big deal?  Yes it is.

Iran and Saudi Arabia concluded a deal Friday to restore normal diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies within two months. The agreement came at the end of a week of Chinese-brokered negotiations in Beijing, which brought an end to the rift between the two governments that has existed ever since Saudi Arabia broke off relations in 2016.

If the agreement holds, it will be an important step forward in regional diplomacy, and it may help in facilitating progress towards a more lasting truce in Yemen. The resumption of normal relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is the result of their recognizing that the earlier intense animosity between these countries was mutually undesirable. Restoring diplomatic ties is not a panacea for all regional tensions, but it should have a stabilizing effect that is very much needed as U.S.-Iranian tensions are on the rise. 

China’s mediation is an example of the constructive role that other major powers can sometimes have in the Middle East. It also shows how much more effective diplomacy can be when a major power has not ensnared itself in the region’s rivalries. China enjoys reasonably good relations with both governments, and that put it in a position to broker a deal that the U.S. likely could never have managed to get. As the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi observed, “By not taking sides, China has emerged as a player that can resolve disputes rather than merely sell weapons.”

Why the Iran-Saudi agreement to restore ties is so big

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That “Iron Dome”

Opening—I apologize for the late responses to comments from yesterday but my granddaughter was graduating high school and the day was about her.

Again I apologize.

WE all have an opinion about the recent conflict in Gaza…we know that Hamas fired a multitude of rockets into Israel and we are told the their defense system, the Iron Dome, destroyed about 80% of those rockets.

The Iron Dome?

It is a mobile all-weather air defense system[8] developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries.[7] The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 kilometres (2.5 mi) to 70 kilometres (43 mi) away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli populated area.

Manufacturer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries
Unit cost

$50 million per battery $40,000 per missile

The reason I gave you that boring background on the Iron Dome is because Biden has promised to send cash to replenish the rockets used…..

Under the current military assistance agreement with Israel, Washington will provide Israel with $38 billion in aid from the 2019 fiscal year to the 2029 fiscal year. Of that $38 billion, $5 billion is allocated for missile defense systems, including the Iron Dome.

Biden Promises to ‘Replenish’ Israel’s Iron Dome After Gaza Ceasefire Reached

Seriously?

After all the cash that flies into Israel from Washington and a system that they make and the taxpayer must pay them for using their own system…..why?

They already get about $3+ billion in aid and yet we still have to pay for their wars of destruction…..again…..why?

The US will replenish the missiles used in the latest conflict…..more waste of taxpayer money….time for this waste to end.

Here is an idea….since the threat of Iron Dome does not deter conflict…..why not give both sides the same weapons after a holding ceasefire….kinda of like the idea of “Mutual Assured Destruction”.

MAD was/is a holdover from the Cold War and was meant to mean nukes…..but it could be expanded….

For those scratching their heads….

Mutually Assured Destruction, or mutually assured deterrence (MAD), is a military theory that was developed to deter the use of nuclear weapons. The theory is based on the fact that nuclear weaponry is so devastating that no government wants to use them. Neither side will attack the other with their nuclear weapons because both sides are guaranteed to be totally destroyed in the conflict. No one will go to all-out nuclear war because no side can win and no side can survive.

To many, mutually assured destruction helped prevent the Cold War from turning hot; to others, it is the most ludicrous theory humanity ever put into full-scale practice. The name and acronym of MAD come from physicist and polymath John von Neumann, a key member of the Atomic Energy Commission and a man who helped the US develop nuclear devices. A game theorist, von Neumann is credited with developing the equilibrium strategy and named it as he saw fit.

https://www.thoughtco.com/mutually-assured-destruction-1221190

Why not?

I mean all other attempts to bring a cessation of hostilities in the Middle East have been dismal failures….why not try another approach?

Just A Thought.

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Biden Takes On Iran

After the disastrous programs of the Trump years Biden has done little to help the tensions between Iran and the US and its allies….

They, the US, would like to return to the days of the ‘Iran Deal’ and prevent them from getting that much feared nuke weapon.

But yet it is perfectly okay for all nations around the region to possess these horrible weapons. But that is a post for another day.

And a “bi-partisan’ group of lawmakers (they work together when war is involved but not when equality is in question)….have sent a letter to Biden on Iran…..

A group of 140 bipartisan members of the House is urging President Biden to seek a more “comprehensive” agreement with Iran, which means the group of lawmakers opposes a revival of the original 2015 nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

In a letter sent to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, 70 Democrats and 70 Republicans said President Biden “must seek an agreement or set of agreements with Iran that are comprehensive in nature to address the full range of threats that Iran poses to the region.”

“As Democrats and Republicans from across the political spectrum, we are united in preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon and addressing the wide range of illicit Iranian behavior,” the letter reads. The effort was organized by Reps. Anthony Brown (D-MD) and Michael Waltz (R-FL).

Bipartisan Group of 140 Lawmakers Urge Biden Not to Rejoin Original Iran Deal

The letter must have worked for the Biden admin has given its word on the issue of the deal…..

State Department spokesman Ned Price said the Biden administration has no plans to make any “unilateral gestures” to jump-start talks with Tehran to revive the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.

“We will not offer any unilateral gestures or incentives to induce the Iranians to come to the table,” Price told reporters. “If the Iranians are under the impression that absent any movement on their part to resume full compliance with the JCPOA that we will offer favors or unilateral gestures, well, that’s a misimpression.”

Price was reiterating the administration’s stance that the US will not give Iran relief from crippling economic sanctions before Iran reduces the activity of its civilian nuclear program. Since the US is the party that withdrew from the deal in 2018, Tehran is calling on President Biden to act first. Iranian officials have been clear that they are ready to quickly abide by the limits set by the JCPOA once the US lifts sanctions.

Price also repeated another stance of the administration, that they wish to seek a stricter deal after a revival of the JCPOA. He said if the agreement was restored, it would be a “necessary but insufficient development.”

“Insufficient because we would then seek to lengthen and strengthen the terms of that deal, using it as a platform to negotiate follow-on arrangements to address these other areas of profound concern with Iran’s behavior in the region,” Price said.

(antiwar.com)

Sanctions?

Yeah they are easier than doing real work to find common ground.

Sanctions hurt the average Iranian more than the government…..my thoughts on why sanctions are barbaric…..https://lobotero.com/2020/10/14/sanctions-what-are-they-good-for/

Sadly there is common ground but the war hawks and their owners do not want a deal…..it is more lucrative to keep the pressure on Iran.

Please tell me the change in foreign policy we can expect?

So far it looks the same as it ever was.

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Is Biden Just Stumbling Along?

As his first major foreign policy act Pres. Biden ordered a ‘revenge’ strike at units within Syria…..

President Biden ordered an airstrike in Syria on Thursday, after recent rocket attacks launched on US forces in Iraq. The target was a structure thought to be used for smuggling weapons by two Shia militias backed by Iran, CNN reports. The goal of the US attack was to hurt the militias’ capability of carrying out any more attacks, per Politico, though the site, in the eastern Syrian town of Al Bukamal, has not been tied to the rocket attacks. The Defense Department had not publicly blamed any Iran-backed militias. Last week, per ABC, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the US “reserves the right to respond in the time and manner of our choosing.”

Was this a return to the old norm?

Is it a preview of what we have in store for our nation….more and a continuation of our endless wars?

US President Biden bellicosely proclaimed, “American is back,” in his major foreign policy priorities speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 19. Repeated twice for effect, Biden signaled the end of the Trump interregnum.

No more assuring words could have been uttered for George W. Bush’s former Defense Secretary Colin Powell and the 70 odd Republican national security officials, who wrote an open letter endorsing Biden out of fear that Trump would upset the bipartisan foreign policy consensus of regime change, forever wars, and the NATO alliance. Republican neo-cons now shelter in the Democrat’s big tent, today’s party of war.

The major difference from his predecessor is that the new US president promises a greater reliance on multilateral diplomacy and international cooperative agreements to achieve US imperial goals. Biden pledged to remain in the World Health Organization and to return to the Paris Climate Agreement, although compliance with the latter is voluntary and Biden defends fracking. After Trump withdrew the US from the UN Human Rights Council three years ago, the US will reengage as an observer. And Trump’s “Muslim ban” was reversed in Biden’s first day in office.

Joe Biden’s US Foreign Policy: Return to the Old Normal?

As I predicted earlier….there will be little change with the Biden presidency….our endless wars will continue to be endless.

The non-partisan Congressional Research Service maintains a list of every “notable” use of U.S. military force abroad. As of June of last year, the list ran on for 46 pages. Last night, President Joe Biden added his first entry when he ordered airstrikes on militia forces on the Iraq-Syria border. What happens next will help determine just how many more pages get added during the rest of the Biden administration. 

While details are still emerging, the basic outlines of the airstrikes appear to be that the president ordered them in retaliation for recent missile strikes on U.S. forces in Iraq, particularly the February 15 strike that killed a Filipino defense contractor and injured a U.S. servicemember in Erbil, Iraq. It’s worth noting that this was seemingly not an isolated incident, with multiple attacks having occurred off and on for some time now on various bases housing U.S. personnel throughout Iraq. 

As is often the case with recent instances of U.S. military force abroad, a debate has quickly emerged on what legal authority such an attack was conducted under and if it complied with international law. The administration claims it acted in self-defense. Multiple members of Congress have weighed in, with some of Congress’s strongest war powers champions either outright rejecting or raising significant concerns about the administration’s claims. 

Biden’s Syria strikes: A perpetual cycle of endless war

Our weary troops have nothing to look forward from a Biden Admin…..he will do little to end these continuous wars and conflicts….

You would think the the American people would grow weary of our endless adventurism and interventions…..but so far the sound of crickets prevails.

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“lego ergo scribo”

What To Do In The Middle East

Most regulars know that my studies and career was rooted in the Middle East…..it is time I got back to watching the events in the region.

We have a new president and the question is….will there be an adjustment in the Middle East.

The Brookings Institution offers a few ideas for our new president……

For over a decade, the United States has sought to wind down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, reduce its military footprint in the Middle East, and redirect scarce resources to Asia. Global and regional trends reinforced this American desire to reduce the priority of the Middle East in its global strategy, and the military “pivot” is well underway. The challenge for American policy is how to protect its remaining and still important interests in that region in an era of austerity and fierce power competition, both in the region and globally. The incoming Biden administration should not waste the window for a reset.

Gulf Arab partners, facing fiscal constraints from lower energy prices and the COVID-19-induced global recession, are more open to conflict resolution in the proxy wars they hagve been fighting across the region. But their relative penury will also impede their ability to invest in stabilizing weaker neighbors, including key states like Jordan and Egypt. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is sanctioned to the hilt, and used to wielding regional influence on the cheap. Thus the balance of power in the region may even favor the Iranians as the pandemic begins to recede. The Biden team must set aside the Trump administration’s fruitless “maximum pressure” in favor of the mix of intelligence cooperation, diplomacy, financial and military tools that can effectively deter or disrupt subversive Iranian activity while incentivizing Tehran’s return to the nuclear negotiating table. And the Pentagon must undertake a zero-based review of its force presence in the Persian Gulf region to ensure it is both efficient and effective in fulfilling its core missions there.

The United States must rebuild what has historically been its most effective tool in the Middle East: diplomacy, especially in advancing conflict resolution. In Yemen and Libya, there might now be opportunities to pull competing regional powers out of the fighting and negotiate power-sharing governments that promote stability and reduce freedom of action for Islamist terrorist movements. Washington cannot let Israelis and Palestinians stew in their stalemated conflict — but rather than trying to reconvene talks, it should take a long-term approach to rebuilding foundations for compromise between the two societies while insisting that they both abjure destabilizing unilateral actions, and work to improve freedom, security, and prosperity for those living with the conflict every day.

Finally, the Biden administration must reestablish clear boundaries in relationships that were deeply unbalanced by President Donald Trump’s careless approach. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) all have questions about the extent and durability of American security commitments to their neighborhood, and all three prefer to keep the U.S. closely engaged. Washington can pursue necessary de-escalation and nuclear diplomacy with Iran while engaging these key partners about where American interests begin and end, and where partners’ own preferences and behaviors present real obstacles to closer cooperation. As in all healthy relationships, honest communication and clear boundaries are essential to maintain mutual respect and good feeling.

What to do – and what not to do – in the Middle East

I disagree with almost everything that is written by this think tank…..especially the statement on the Israeli/Palestinian problem…..”Washington cannot let Israelis and Palestinians stew in their stalemated conflict — but rather than trying to reconvene talks, it should take a long-term approach to rebuilding foundations for compromise between the two societies while insisting that they both abjure destabilizing unilateral actions, and work to improve freedom, security, and prosperity for those living with the conflict every day.”

Really?

If they want a long term solution then maybe the place to start is with Israel.  The theft of land, destruction of crops, the hijacking of humanitarian funds, the random of harassment and arrests and those damn settlements would be a good start.

None of that means a damn thing….for the Biden admin will do business as it has been done for 50 years….especially in the Middle East.

The Biden admin is change that will not change.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

Iran And The Smell Of War

Only days left in office……would Trump start a war just for the hell of it?

US President Donald Trump could take “reckless” military action against Iran in his final days in office, experts have warned, as tensions between Tehran and Washington mount on the eve of the first anniversary of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani’s assassination.

Trump has sent B-52s and aircraft group to the Gulf as a preparatory exercise just in case….

It looks like a threat to most…..

No one thought President Donald Trump would leave quietly. But would he go so far as to start a military confrontation with Iran on his way out? 

Recent military movements by the Pentagon in the Middle East (ostensibly to deter Iran from attacking American troops on the anniversary of the assassination of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani), combined with Israeli media reports that Saudi Arabi and Israel are pressing Trump to bomb Iran before he leaves office, has fueled speculation that Trump may be planning his biggest — and likely most disastrous — stunt yet.

Trump has made more threats of war against Iran than any other country during his four years as President. As late as last month, he ordered the military to prepare options against Iranian nuclear facilities. Though the New York Times reported that Trump’s aides derailed those plans, U.S. troop movements in the past few weeks may suggest otherwise. 

Since October, the Pentagon has deployed 2,000 additional troops as well as an extra squadron of fighter planes to Saudi Arabia. It has also sent B-52 bombers on missions in the Persian Gulf three times, kept the USS Nimitz close to Iran, and announced that it is sending a Tomahawk-firing submarine just outside of Iranian waters. Moreover, Israel — whose officials have confirmed to several U.S. newspapers that it was behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh last month — has sent a nuclear-equipped submarine to the Persian Gulf.

Officially, all of these military maneuvers are aimed at “deterring” Iran, even though Israel assassinated an Iranian official in Iran and not the other way around. “The United States continues to deploy combat-ready capabilities into the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility to deter any potential adversary, and make clear that we are ready and able to respond to any aggression directed at Americans or our interests,” said Marine Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, chief of U.S. Central Command, according to the Washington Post.

Iran attack may be next in Trump’s farewell bag of tricks

In response to the US threats Iran has announced the enriching of uranium…..

In the biggest violation yet of an international nuclear agreement, Iran is going ahead with enriching its uranium to 20% purity. A nuclear bomb requires 90% purity, but the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 had limited enrichment levels to less than 4%, the BBC reports. Iran has violated provisions of the deal since President Trump restored sanctions and pulled the US out of the agreement in 2018, such as increasing enrichment of uranium to 4.5%. But 20% enrichment would be the high point since the deal took effect, per NPR. Iran signaled that it would take this step last month. The International Atomic Energy Agency said the enrichment will take place at Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is built under a mountain near the city of Qom.

The agency said its inspectors “have regular access to Fordow,” but Iran has said it will prevent inspections if oil and banking sanctions aren’t lifted by February. The UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China want the nuclear deal fully restored. President-elect Joe Biden has said he’d favor that if Iran is in “strict compliance” with the agreement. And Iranian Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that if Biden “returns to the situation as it was in 2017, then so will we.” But the agency’s director general said last month that that might not be possible. “I cannot imagine that they are going simply to say, ‘We are back to square one’ because square one is no longer there,” Rafael Mariano Grossi said.

Is this a ply by Iran to stop the US from acting irresponsibly?

Will this announcement be the excuse be used to actually attack Iran?

One finally question what happened?  They will enrich their uranium to 20% and it takes 90% for a bomb….but after all the bullshit spread by warmongers both here and Israel I thought they were already producing nuke weapons…….so does that mean we have been lied to all these years?

If they spy on their best friend could they also incite an attack?

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif accused Israel of plotting attacks in Iraq against the US to provoke a military confrontation between Iran and the US.

“New intelligence from Iraq indicate that Israeli agent-provocateurs are plotting attacks against Americans—putting an outgoing Trump in a bind with a fake casus belli,” Zarif wrote on Twitter. “Be careful of a trap, @realDonaldTrump. Any fireworks will backfire badly, particularly against your same BFFs,” he added.

Zarif’s tweet came on the eve of the anniversary of the US assassination of Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, which was marked on Sunday. In the weeks leading up to the anniversary, US officials have been warning of imminent Iranian attacks in Iraq. For their part, Iran has urged caution and warned its Iraqi allies not to provoke the US, hoping to avoid a war with the US before Trump leaves office.

An Israeli official dismissed Zarif’s comments. Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz called the claim “nonsense” in an interview on Sunday. While Israel may not be plotting to attack the US, the Israelis did choose to escalate tensions in the region, being the likely perpetrator of the assassination of Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

(antiwar.com)

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Peace Through Bribery?

I am a cheer leader for diplomacy…I feel that negotiations is far superior than the use of force….but Trump’s idea of diplomacy is that of bribery…..especially when it comes to the state of Israel.

For 60+ years no Arab nation has been on good terms with Israel….and for damn near 100 years the Israelis have been abusing the Palestinians whose land they stole to set up some kingdom in the Middle East.

Enter Trump and his brand of silly diplomacy…..the Saudis get nuke technology if they recognize and formalize relations with Israel….then the UAE gets advanced weaponry to do the same….now Morocco has decided to deal with Israel but only after the Trump admin sends them advanced drones.

Not only do the Moroccans get advanced weaponry but the US will recognize their claim to the Western Sahara….

Reuters cited three anonymous US officials who did not indicate whether the sale was related to the normalization agreement or not. But the UAE is preparing to purchase a $23 billion weapons package as its reward for opening ties with Israel, so advanced military equipment is clearly on the table for Arab countries who take the step to normalize.

The sources said the sale to Morocco would consist of four MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics with a range of 6,000 nautical miles that can significantly boost Rabat’s surveillance capabilities. While the SeaGuardians can carry a payload, it’s not clear if they will be sold armed.

One of the sources said Congress could be notified of the potential sale as early as Friday. Congress could potentially block the deal, but the source said that is not expected. On Thursday, the Senate failed to pass resolutions that aimed to stop the UAE weapons sales.

As a reward for agreeing to normalize with Israel, the US recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Morocco annexed the territory after the Spanish withdrew from the region in 1975. Rabat then fought a war with the Polisario Front, a group that represents the indigenous Sahrawi people, to control the territory until a ceasefire was reached in 1991.

(antiwar.com)

The Polisario Front declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976, a de facto state in Western Sahara. The SADR is a member of the African Union and maintains diplomatic relations with about 40 UN member states. Currently, the SADR controls about 20 percent of Western Sahara, and Morocco controls the rest. The UN recognizes neither the SADR nor Moroccan sovereignty over the region.

In a deal brokered by United States President Donald Trump’s outgoing administration, Morocco became the latest Arab country to normalise ties with Israel.

As part of the agreement announced on Thursday, Trump agreed to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, where there has been a decades-old dispute with Morocco pitted against the Polisario Front.

The Algeria-backed breakaway movement Polisario Front seeks to establish an independent state in the region.

Western Sahara has been on the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories, a stance also taken by the African Union, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as well as the European Union.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/11/western-sahara-conflict-in-500-words

Once again the US NO LONGER stands for democracy and the right of self-determination.

I have given my thoughts many times on the situation in Western Sahara…..for further information please read….

https://lobotero.com/2011/06/15/where-is-western-sahara/

https://lobotero.com/2015/11/10/western-sahara-and-the-sahrawi/

https://lobotero.com/2018/04/30/western-sahara-update/

This is just the opposite of what diplomacy is meant to accomplish…..these decisions will increase the possibility of more and more violence.

Hopefully a new admin will turn back the stupidity of the Trump days…..I doubt it but I can hope.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Western-Sahara

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Warmongers Press

After the assassination of the Iranian scientist I have been saying and writing that it was all an attempt to get Trump to start a war with Iran.

For at least 20 years Israel has been lying about Iran’s search for nukes….some times they are months away and others they are a few years away….in other words there is NO consistency t the accusations.

Israel has wanted the US to solve their Iranian problem for decades….so they take small steps to try and push a reaction by Iran that would justify an all out attack.

As time has elapsed since the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 27 November, the chances for quick retaliation are fading away.

After the assassination, in an operation east of Tehran attributed to Israel’s Mossad, senior Iranian leaders have used harsh language to promise revenge, not only against Israel but also the United States and Israel’s new allies in the region, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Among those vowing retribution were President Hassan Rouhani and military confidants of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, including former Defence Minister Ahmad Wahidi.

But the inflammatory rhetoric subdsided. Gut feelings made room for cool-headed decisions. The first question to be asked is, why? Why did Israel decide to kill him?

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-scientist-killing-israel-lure-war-failed

Warmongers who have the president’s ear like Cotton and other diehard war enthusiast they keep pushing as well…..

Since Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in an apparent Israeli plot, the US and Israel have been warning about threats in the region. Despite Iran’s clear desire to make it to January 20th without a military confrontation with the US, anonymous officials are hyping the threat of Iranian retaliation for Fakhrizadeh’s death.

On Monday, an anonymous US official told The Associated Press that Washington fears Iran may take advantage of US troop drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. For this reason, the official said the US might have to hold off on the planned departure of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz from the Persian Gulf.

In September, the Nimitz was deployed to the Persian Gulf to send a message to Iran. The US official said the ship must remain in the region “for some time to come.” The official added that an additional fighter squadron might be sent to the Middle East. The US recently deployed B-52 bombers to the region and moved a fleet of F-16 fighter jets from Germany to the UAE.

US and Its Allies Stoking Fears of Possible Iranian Attacks

So the question is….will Trump take the bait and help Israel and start a new endless war?

What are the chances?

Following his election loss Donald Trump reportedly sought options to strike Iran. The president’s senior advisors dissuaded him from doing so, though it’s unclear if he settled on a different option. Then, on 17 November, both Israel and Saudi Arabia reinforced their agreed message that that Iran can never possess nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Netanyahu spoke to Biden by phone about Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s repeated offer that Iran was willing to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, which was negotiating during the Obama-Biden administration. At that point, nothing appeared out of the ordinary when it came to Iran. There also appeared to be a coalescence of interests between Trump (for his remaining days in office), Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran.

Opinion – Is the Next Middle East War on the Horizon?

Will there be a 2021 surprise?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Biden On The Middle East

This is a continuation of my series looking at the direction the Biden administration will most likely pursue…..this time it is the hot bed of the Middle East…..

We know there will be a change from Trumpian policy….but what will those policies be most like?

This is an interview of a person looking deeply into the possible Biden policies for the region.

Here in Washington when a new administration is set to take over–well, in due time–we love to play the game of asking what will happen in every single corner of the world. I think it is a good exercise, for the most part, allowing many times fresh ideas, old concepts, and lots of opinions to get floated and refloated and compared in the weeks leading up to January 20. So, in that spirit, I asked my friend Michael Rubin from AEI for his ideas on where Joe Biden will take U.S. foreign policy when it comes to the Middle East. As always, his thoughts are sharp, comprehensive, and born from years of thinking through this topic for decades in a depth that is rare these days.

First, despite what Donald Trump may believe, we now can say there will be a change in administrations with Joe Biden taking office on January 20th. How do you think his policies will change towards Israel? Clearly, the U.S. and Israel had a strained relationship during the Obama years. Could we see a return to that? How will Biden approach this important alliance?

The Democrats are divided and the policies Biden pursues will depend more on who ultimately wins each position than on what the twitter base of the Democratic party may want. We’re far more likely to have a Secretary of State Tony Blinken or Chris Coons than Ro Khanna or Barbara Lee.

What Will Joe Biden’s Middle East Strategy Look Like?