For a couple of years the Us and its allies in NATO have been bombing the crap out of the country trying desperately to bring down the group commonly known as ISIS….let’s us say that it is final and ISIS is destroyed what of the future of Syria?
Not long ago I offered a post on the future of Syria…
I said that the future of Syria did not have much of a bright spot….and then I read a report by the Rand Corporation…….
This paper offers recommendations for U.S. policy for a postconflict transition in Syria that prevents state collapse, reduces the potential for the recurrence of war, and defeats terrorist groups that have taken hold in the country. These three objectives, we suggest, are best achieved by working with Russia and through the United Nations Security Council, especially in the absence of a regional consensus to end the war. Furthermore, Syria’s political culture and modern history reflect a tradition of centralization and nationalism, which should be acknowledged in postconflict planning. In contrast, policies that seek to divide the country or deliberately or inadvertently weaken or destabilize state institutions — such as support for armed groups that carry out attacks against the state or postconflict governance and reconstruction plans that overemphasize local governance at the expense of the state — may ultimately prove counterproductive in preventing a return to conflict and violence.
The analysis and recommendation presented in this paper should be of interest to policymakers, media, and scholars who specialize in U.S. foreign policy, Syria, and the Middle East.
The problem with this paper is that it assumes that there is a state apparatus remaining in place.
I do not see it.
If and when this fight is over then there is still so many groups that live in various parts of the country and they will demand many things from any remaining Syrian state…..if the state is not willing to grant these concessions then the fighting will start up once again.
I fear that without much more diplomatic input this situation will be self-perpetuating….and a deadly situation.
There is a reason for my pessimism…..
Report: Syria is emerging as the newest and most important safe haven for al-Qaeda as the radical Salafi-jihadi ideology threatens to subvert the pluralistic and nationalist goals of the 2011 Syrian Uprising. And it is Bashar al-Assad who is directly responsible for creating the conditions that are empowering al-Qaeda in Syria, as the policies pursued by his government are creating the sociopolitical conditions for extremism to thrive. – Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Only time will tell the fate of Syria…..and the fates are not smiling on it.
Even the major players can be at odds over the future……
The differences between the Russians, the Turks, and the Iranians in Syria are slowly surfacing and gaining greater weight. An Iranian news site — TABNAK
A game that the Syrians will lose in the end.