The MSM has busted a blood vessel analyzing the outcome of the primary process…..oh the math!
The problem is that many Dems do not trust Hillary and her faux “I feel your pain” con…..(Hell she cannot figure out a subway turnstile)…….but for the sake of argument id she wins the nomination will she have all the support from all the Dems?
My opinion is that she is not liked by most so I do not think that all of Bernie’s supporters will flock to her side for the general election.
A recent poll bears out what I am feeling……
The surge of voter enthusiasm for the Bernie Sanders campaign may not translate into Clinton fever this fall if she gets the nomination. According to the latest McClatchy-Marist poll, some 25% of Sanders supporters—especially independents, moderates, and men—say they won’t support Hillary Clinton if she becomes the nominee. It’s not clear whether they would vote Republican, choose a third-party candidate, or just stay home. Only 14% of Clinton supporters say they won’t support Sanders if he becomes the nominee. “Right now, the Sanders voters are more reluctant to support a Clinton candidacy,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.
The poll numbers are worrying news for the party, though Mediaite notes that during the 2008 Democratic primaries, pollsters found that 50% of Clinton voters claimed they would support John McCain over Obama, who ended up winning that November. The McClatchy poll also found that Sanders has edged ahead of Clinton nationwide, 49% to 47%, helped by overwhelming support among voters 29 and younger, 73% of whom prefer him to Clinton. He also leads among Latinos, independents, and the unmarried, while black voters, voters over 60, and Democrats lean toward Clinton. (Sanders believes his path to victory involves a contested Democratic convention.)
If they do not vote for Hillary…..then who? Well we can be sure that the Trump camp will not see an increase from ex-Bernie supporters. Or for that matter neither will the Cruz group if he somehow wins his party’s nomination.
Then who will these voters fall behind in the election? Will they settle for a third party candidate? Maybe a candidate like Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party?
Who will win the support of those 25% of ex-Bernie supporters?
I’m not voting for Hilary, even though she is a woman or if I was just voting against Trump. I’ll write in Bernie! dru
It is a shame that write-ins are not allowed in every state….I fear that these people may go to a third party and hand the election to Trump in some way….chuq
I must admit chuq I have reservations about that too, so I might reconsider Hillary but only to “Trump” Trump! That is why I never have voted for Nader. i’d love a “female” president (in theory) but i l did not vote for Obama because he was black but because I expected change from him, I’d expect REAL change from Bernie. So i still “Feel the Bern” dru
Nader was a media whore he would do anything to be on TV…..I hate it but we live in a liberal society (classical definition) and any change must be incremental….even Bernie will not give us real change…..just more reforms. Do not get me wrong…I still Feel the Bern…but I am not ver optimistic….sorry chuq
Well again you’re right NOT REAL change but some reforms….and I’m not an idiot, if he actually would get elected I might consider a deity exists after all. And I’d have only voted for the media whore to show I didn’t like the other candidates and I’ve found writing comments on other’s posts to which I agree far more satisfying, than that futile action. THANX! dru
You are welcome and I thank you for sharing your thoughts and concerns here on IST….chuq
How about Bill Watterson, the author of Zippy the Pinhead? His view of the world is much more amenable to anyone with a functioning irony gene, and I think Zippy’s verbal style would suit the White House lawn perfectly… He may speak in metaphor, but, it’s all true… Hell, we live on delusion now; why not try metaphor for a change?
gigoid, the dubious
More proof we are all bozos on this bus…. The author of Zippy isn’t Bill Watterson; it’s Bill Griffith, so, please write in his name above, and on your ballots.
But, if you prefer, Bill Watterson is also pretty mindful; his comic is also a gold mine of metaphor… for example this is a take by his characters on life at large in today’s world, which indicates he’d make a pretty good president, too…
“Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us.” — Bill Watterson, cartoonist of Calvin & Hobbes
Honk!
gigoid, the dubious Bozoid
😎
People say a lot of stupid shit they don’t mean 6 months before they get into the voting booth. (See: ridiculous Iowa pre-game polling.) But in most cases, they bend over & take it.
In this case, Solid Blue Staters will be the least likely to vote for Hillary. Most will vote Green. Some will stay home. A few Reagan Democrats will vote Trump (if given the option) for his trade policies. The totals doing this in battleground States will be low. But since half the population doesn’t vote anyway, it won’t take much to create a measurable impact….even if it doesn’t change the results at all. Hillary will win, just not nearly by as much as she should.
Like Nader, Bernie drew in people that otherwise wouldn’t be there AT ALL. So when he gets cast aside, more Bernie supporters will refuse to vote for Hillary than your average losing candidate’s supporters would refuse to vote for the winner. However, the vast majority of Sanders voters will ultimately vote for Hillary. They won’t smile about it. They won’t volunteer willingly. They won’t donate willingly. The won’t celebrate when she wins. Any involvement will be PURELY out of fear of losing to the Republican.
In 2016, the vast majority of voters will NOT be happy about voting for who they vote for.
Dear Sedate. I WISH so MUCH that i didn’t agree with you, the majority of my family have actually said to me; “This one sucks even more polliwog water than usual so if I vote, at all, “it will be a vote against an other”….sigh. That sigh actually comes from me but it hurts me to say; I understand.
I have always wanted to vote for a “Woman President”, however I can’t vote for no change as opposed to, perhaps, an itty bitty little bitty, changee, of some sort….Sorry, I just can’t seem to help it. I’ve been Dx’d with “Unable to shut her trap disease”, what ever that is? hee hee
I just have opinions, not facts.
Coming of age in mid-60s and certainly having the advantage of maturing, (you got to be kidding me?) in most of the 70s. I have decided by my age now, to worry about how i can catch up the 2 months I’m behind on my mortgage, instead of which one of those ass holes is going to finally get us back to the stone age.
I’m not worried, because I will die, and my friends and family will die and for all i know, all humans will die, so be it. I’m worried about how to stop foreclosure, on my home, RIGHT NOW.. No matter if the world is flat or round, that Syphilitic Political Bastard will be the death of me…However Hill might be as bad, AND WHO THE HELL KNOWS about BERN? I Plead, “Let us take a risk, let us pay attention, I”’m not asking for knowledge on your part…..”Shall we dance?” Let us see how it comes out, if we remember our youth and we thought we could make a change. SHIT WE ALREADY KNOW THE ALTERNATIVE! But why give up…why not keep thinking we have minds and souls?
VOTE YOUR CONSCIOUS NOT THE BETTER CHESS MOVE.
Never just vote against another. Just sit back and try to survive the ride.
i skimmed a little AOL that cited some article that us humans/aliens? have Neanderthal DNA if we have hay fever. Me Cave Women but I don’t do windows!
Hey Sedate, I have been rereading your article, due to terminal insomnia and find myself bothered by this: “even if it doesn’t change the results at all. Hillary will win, just not nearly by as much as she should.” I take exception at the word should.
After all, There is a almost viable Democratic other and while I’m willing to take a chance on him, I don’t think he “should” win, I just hope he will. Is there is a reason that Hillary “should” win? I’m not the fan I used to be but nobody should win…if want you want to happen doesn’t; sit back, plan, and wait four years.
Most people who agree with me wish they didn’t. Everybody else just wishes I’d shut the fuck up.
The Web-pipes have insured that negativity will drive everything from now on. Nobody has anything positive to say about anybody other than themselves and the people they think are just like them.
Look at what we got now. The Republican race is being dominated by a Reality TV star famous for shitting on people and his nasty 3AM Twit Zone tirades. In 2nd place is the most hated man in Washington DC, a toxic asshole famous for making sure nothing actually gets done. Meanwhile, the Democrats will have the most hated candidate they could find. Either way, the Presidency will go to the 2nd most hated politico in America. Except for their small fan-clubs, the vast majority will vote against the option they hate more. This is the future in a nutshell.
“even if it doesn’t change the results at all. Hillary will win, just not nearly by as much as she should.”
I mean that in a purely statistical way. People not voting for Hillary won’t not stop her from winning. It will just reduce her margin of victory. Just like Bernie’s incredible success is only reducing her margin of (preordained by Super-Delegates) victory in the Primaries.
Fact is, Republicans are a shrinking minority of the population. Their base is falling faster than…the members of the base who “have fallen and I can’t get up”…ever again. The voting population is getting darker, poorer & more vaginally gifted all the time. This does not bode well for a party exclusively promoting the values of rich, white, males. They hide their weakness in Congress behind Red States, Senate filibusters, gerrymandering and -above all- mass apathy. But despite having WAY more money, MUCH better propagandists and a shitty media incapable of doing its job, they can no longer get more than 25% of the population to vote for them (50% of the 50% who vote) on a Presidential level. They’re a bigger long-shot each & every time now, even if they field a Romney-level candidate….which they aren’t.
In a rational America (choke, choke) where most people aren’t completely insane, Hillary vs Trump/Cruz SHOULD resemble a Raygun vs Mondale ass-raping. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1984 But do NOT take that as a glowing recommendation of America’s first PILF. I expect she’ll just be an Obama sequel. More balls, but a worse jump-shot.
To be clear, my dog’s morning shit SHOULD beat either Republican contender . Because they’re so awful, so bad for America, so out of touch with Americans & anything resembling reality…they don’t even deserve to be on a vaudeville stage. The fact they ARE taken seriously just shows how dysfunctional the political system is….and how pathetic Democrats are that they don’t wipe the floor with them.
Oh Please Sedate, NEVER SHUT UP!!! This world NEEDS people like you and thanx for clearing up the stasically should. I understand much better now. Find your shoe horn yet? dru
So true and I look for our Green Party to pick up more support if Bernie gets thrown away…..I hope I get utter the 3 most beautiful words in the English language….”I Told You So”…wait that is 4…oops…..early no caffeine yet….sorry.
I’ve voted for Canuckistan’s Green Party 3-4 times. (We’ve actually had a couple in the national legislature.) But that was when I lived in a riding that was 80+% Conservative. The margin of victory was so high every election, I actually attempted to get my own name on the ballot once, just so I could vote for myself and say “I finished 70 votes behind 2nd place.”
Now that I live in a riding that’s almost a 3-way-tie every election, I struggle with the classic “first-past-the-post” Catch 22. Vote for who I really want & risk allowing the worst option to win. Or, vote for my 2nd pick who probably won’t win. Or, vote for my 3rd option who has a 50-50 shot at winning but will definitely disappoint me. (Think: Hillary)
Lucky for me, my 2nd favourite (and even 3rd) is FAR more tolerable than the “choices” you Americans are given. (Hanging or lethal injection, if I’m not mistaken.)
We usually say….”the best person for the job never runs”….