Tag: Nuclear Threat

Closing Thought–25Sep17

Over the weekend North Korea’s Li’l Kim has threatened to explode an H bomb over the Pacific…..

Tensions between the US and North Korea continue to escalate. First the leader of the former threatened to wipe out the latter. Then Kim Jong Un followed up by calling Trump a “mentally deranged US dotard,” and Trump capped that off with a new warning Friday, tweeting that Kim “will be tested like never before!” But the North this week also suggested a move that goes beyond words—and could lead to a “lot of dead fish”: detonating a nuclear bomb a few hundred miles over the Pacific Ocean, per Reuters. North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho dropped hints on a South Korean news channel (his own apparent musings, not official word from Kim) that the North may conduct “a historic aboveground test of a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean,” per the Wall Street Journal.

Yang Uk, a Korea Defense and Security Forum researcher, tells Reuters that North Korea “may be bluffing”—or seeking an excuse, like Trump’s words, for a test. The last time a nation experimented with an atmospheric detonation was in 1980, when China did so. MIT professor Vipin Narang says such a move would be “provocative” and, if anything goes awry, a possibly “world-changing event.” Radioactive fallout would be a danger—though Narang says it may not be so bad if the detonation took place high enough—as would the effects of electromagnetic pulses. A US missile analyst tells the Journal North Korea could also pack a hydrogen bomb on a ship and set it off in the sea. (Here’s what “dotard” means.)

This juvenile chest thumping has got to cease….if these two cannot find a way to tone down this rhetoric then I say put them in a ring and let them fight until one goes down for the 10 count (think of the cash that could be made with pay-per-view).

You know that in a decade this situation will become a case study on diplomacy.

North Korea: The Thorn That Irritates

The Neocons in DC are having none of the fact that NK is trying to get warheads and a delivery system…..tough talk from the prez on down the line……

Here are some takeaways from this most recent test. According to John Schilling, an expert on North Korean missiles:

  • This Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) is known as the “Hwasong-14.”
  • The biggest concern over ICBMs is not due to their intrinsic explosiveness — which is certainly considerable — but due to their ability to have one or multiple nuclear warheads loaded onto them.
  • The Hwasong-14 can probably carry one nuclear warhead, though there’s no indication North Korea has developed a nuclear weapon small enough to fit in a nose cone.
  • North Korea is likely a decade or two away from being able to fit this ICBM with multiple warheads.

Also, North Korea is probably years away from being able to reliably hit targets on America’s west coast.

Source: Fears of a North Korean Warhead – Arc Digital

With all that is known about the NK missile test and their nuke research what are the options open to the US?

The carrot and the stick approach clearly failed.

We don’t hear mere saber rattling on the Korean peninsula. Sabers are local, short-range weapons. The dreadful noise in east Asia is something far more potent: the provocative July 4 blast of a North Korean missile capable of striking North America.

South Korea’s Sunshine Policy to coax North Korea to end its nuclear quest? The Clinton Administration’s Agreed Framework of economic carrots and heavy oil to encourage regime moderation? Two decades (or more) of rational U.S. appeals to China to help curb the noxious Kim regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and to help terminate Pyongyang’s cyclic bouts of military attacks on South Korea?

Source: Trump Has 6 Options to Neutralize North Korea—But None Are Good | Observer

Can we hope that a way to control this situation will be found…but that is assuming that we have experienced diplomats in place….and that is a long shot at best.

I have been asked by a friend to come up with ideas on the proper way to handle the NK situation……he is teaching a class and would like some input…..and here is an idea without having to look too far……

The reason that negotiations over North Korea have never achieved anything is simple. Their avowed goal is impossible to achieve. It is well-past time to accept that no means, political or military, exists to eliminate North Korean nuclear weapons. Their continued existence is certain, as will be explained. That being the case, it is time for the United States in particular to adopt a new approach.

This approach would be to recognize North Korea diplomatically, as a state, and as one having nuclear capability. Washington and Pyongyang should each build embassies and exchange ambassadors. This is the best alternative now available. It will not restore peace to Asia but it will bring partial progress that is real, rather than the total solution on which all agree, but that is simply impossible.

Source: Why We Must Recognize North Korea | RealClearDefense

I told him that I am by no means an expert on Asian policies but that I would do my best to find a solution for him to present to his class.

All the chest thumping from Trump and others and S. Korea has the best idea….for now…..

South Korea on Monday offered talks with North Korea to ease animosities along their tense border and resume reunions of families separated by their war in the 1950s. It was unclear how North Korea will react since it remains suspicious of new South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s outreach, notes the AP. But Moon’s overture, the first formal offer of talks since his inauguration in May, indicates he wants to use dialogue to defuse the international standoff over North Korea’s weapons programs, despite having condemned the North’s first intercontinental ballistic missile test on July 4. If realized, the talks would be the first inter-Korean dialogue since December 2015.

South Korean Vice Defense Minister Suh Choo Suk proposed that defense officials from the two Koreas hold talks at the border village of Panmunjom on Friday on how to end hostile activities along the border. South Korea’s acting Red Cross chief told a news conference that it wants separate talks at the border village on Aug. 1 to discuss family reunions. North Korea’s state media didn’t immediately respond to South Korea’s proposals. But analysts say North Korea may accept the defense talks because it wants the South Korean army to halt loudspeaker broadcasts at the border that began after North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016. Prospects for talks on family reunions are less rosy because North Korea has previously demanded that South Korea repatriate some North Korean defectors living in the South before any reunions take place.

How much damage can talking do?

A “Limited Nuke War”

This is not a subject that I would ever want to debate again….but that wish has been crapped on….and crapped on hard.

The prospect of a nuclear conflict has recently raised its ugly head…..for years this was not a subject that got much press…but in the last year the idea seems to making a comeback of sorts….

Since the day that our new president took the oath of office this is a subject that has garnered more press than any of the previous years….Trump has made it clear that he would like a nuclear arsenal upgrade.

With that said the whole scenario of a “limited nuclear war” has once again made the headlines (and you thought the Cold War was over…HA)….

The blog of the National Interest magazine has taken a look at the aging paradigm……

As Donald Trump’s first three weeks in office come to a close, critics are pointing out that his iconic slogan, “Make America Great Again” is starting to look more and more like an attempt to bring American society back to the 1950s. What most people haven’t realized yet is that his vision of turning back the clock also applies to America’s nuclear arsenal.

Just this past week, CQ Roll Call reported that a blue-ribbon Pentagon panel urged the Trump administration to make the U.S. arsenal more capable of fighting a “‘limited’ atomic war.”

Source: Could America Really Win a “Limited” Nuclear War? | The National Interest Blog

Carter and even Reagan worked to limit these destructive tools….and now after 30+ years of working to their elimination the whole idea has come roaring back into the conversation of conflict management and resolution…..

We can only hope that sanity returns to the world of foreign policy….if not then we might as well get use to those silly drills of hiding under the desk with our hands over our head.

Personally I was hoping that this would go away and sane people were in control….my hopes are dashed on the rocks of insanity.

Closing Thought–23Feb17

There are news stories that are just not important enough to make the evening news….but yet some moronic celeb never has his jersey stolen and it is updated for days…..

In the past I have written about nuclear accidents and other stories that could be a problem for the world in the near future….we all know about Fukashima and that is bout it for nuke mistakes…..but there is nuclear material missing around the world that could make it into a dirty bomb or other weapon….

I try to help my readers stay attuned to these incidents with the hope they they will stay alert and safe…..

I read another report that did not make it into the news…….this time it is Northern Europe……

As mysterious radiation spread over the Arctic and south into Europe last month, conspiracy theorists quickly claimed Russia had restarted nuclear testing at Novaya Zemlya, the Drive reports. But the truth is—probably—a lot less menacing. According to the Independent Barents Observer, a spike in the radioactive isotope Iodine-131 was first measured on the Norway-Russia border in mid-January. But the spike wasn’t made public until later, when it reached France, Science Alert reports. The levels of Iodine-131 weren’t high enough to be a danger to the public, but the isotope is usually connected to nuclear fission, so concern abounded. That concern only deepened when the US, with no explanation, sent its nuclear “sniffing” aircraft to Europe.

Despite the alarm, the radiation bloom probably wasn’t caused by a nuclear explosion. First, there was no seismic activity to go along with the radiation spike. Second, no other radioactive isotopes spiked besides Iodine-131, Motherboard reports. And while a nuclear explosion—or accident—is still a possibility, Norway’s radiation protection agency believes the likely culprit is a pharmaceutical company working with Iodine-131, which is used to treat cancers. It’s still unclear where the radiation originated, with officials only narrowing it down as far as “Eastern Europe,” but medical companies that work with Iodine-131 all have detectors for a leak. So it seems someone out there knows what happened but isn’t talking.

They still no idea where it came from or why…..

Eye On North Korea

Finally I get to return to my first passion international relations……our man in DC will now have his hands full….Russia is still a huge question mark…..South China Sea will begin to boil from the simmer we have now…..and we all know what he says about ISIS….but the most pressing situation may be none of the above…..

For last couple of months we have had lots of finger pointing internationally at Russia and China…..plus threat after threat has been leveled at several Asian countries…..but while everyone is shaking their heads maybe we should be watching that contentious peninsula and North Korea….

They, NK, have been a thorn in Washington’s ass for decades and now they may be extending their nuclear “research”…..

Pyongyang may be preparing to resume operations of its plutonium reactor for the first time since late 2015, 38 North, a website on North Korean affairs, said Wednesday.

Citing commercial satellite imagery collected from October 2016 to January 2017, the website wrote: “Stepped-up activities throughout the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicate that it is operating at a level of somewhat above what has been observed during the past five years and that may continue in the future.”

Source: North Korea May Be Starting Plutonium Reactor | World Affairs Journal

This could be rumor and/or propaganda….but this is a threat to take seriously………

Hopefully the East Asian Desk is paying attention with all the chaos of a new admin….things can be missed…..

The time for cheer leading is over….time for someone to get serious…..time for the slower thinking bobble heads to move aside and let those more serious about the world to run things…..

Could It Be WW3 By Mistake?

I have in the past looked for that linch pin, an occurrence that could start a World War (kinda like Sarajevo in 1914), a place that could ignite into a major conflict….but recently with all the babble about fake news….. could something be written on social media that could be that spark?

But first a little historic perspective from 1980……

Harsh political rhetoric, combined with the vulnerability of the nuclear command-and-control system, has made the risk of global catastrophe greater than ever.

On June 3, 1980, at about two-thirty in the morning, computers at the National Military Command Center, beneath the Pentagon, at the headquarters of the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD), deep within Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, and at Site R, the Pentagon’s alternate command post center hidden inside Raven Rock Mountain, Pennsylvania, issued an urgent warning: the Soviet Union had just launched a nuclear attack on the United States. The Soviets had recently invaded Afghanistan, and the animosity between the two superpowers was greater than at any other time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

U.S. Air Force ballistic-missile crews removed their launch keys from the safes, bomber crews ran to their planes, fighter planes took off to search the skies, and the Federal Aviation Administration prepared to order every airborne commercial airliner to land.

Source: World War Three, by Mistake – The New Yorker

Now for the social media thingy…..there was an incident in 2016 that could have led to a massive reaction…..

If 2016 is the year of the fake news story, then it’s ending in appropriate fashion: One bogus story has just led to a veiled threat of nuclear retaliation. As the Times of Israel explains, the craziness began when a fake news site, AWD News, ran a fake story in which an Israeli official accuses Pakistan of meddling in Syria and warns that Israel would attack Islamabad with nuclear weapons in response. One clue it’s a fake story: The Israeli official quoted is named as defense minister Yoshe Ma’alon, but he left the post months ago. However, this did not deter Pakistani defense chief Khawaja Mohammad Asif, who responded to the fake nuclear threat with a tweet that sounds uncomfortably close to a real one: “Israeli def min threatens nuclear retaliation presuming pak role in Syria against Daesh. Israel forgets Pakistan is a Nuclear state too.”

Israel’s defense ministry tweeted back that the story is “entirely false,” reports the New York Times. Pakistan hasn’t yet responded. This, however, isn’t Asif’s first threat regarding his country’s nuclear arsenal. In September, he warned that Pakistan would consider using tactical nuclear weapons against India if it were threatened by its neighbor, reported the Times of India. For the record, Israel maintains a policy of what the AP terms “nuclear ambiguity:” It has neither confirmed nor denied that it has such an arsenal.

Sometimes the major insanity of war is ignited by one small seemingly insignificant spark…these days are dangerous and volatile….caution and commonsense are needed now more than ever…..two characteristics that are sadly lacking.

What We Talk About When We Don’t Want To Talk About Nuclear War

While surfing I saw the title and it intrigued me……since their has been lots of talk in this election about nukes…..it is a subject that we want to bring up during an election but we do not really want to talk about the situation.

You may have missed it. Perhaps you dozed off. Or wandered into the kitchen to grab a snack. Or by that point in the proceedings were checking out Seinfeld reruns. During the latter part of the much hyped but excruciating-to-watch first presidential debate, NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt posed a seemingly straightforward but cunningly devised question. His purpose was to test whether the candidates understood the essentials of nuclear strategy.

A moderator given to plain speaking might have said this: “Explain why the United States keeps such a large arsenal of nuclear weapons and when you might consider using those weapons.”

Source: What We Talk About When We Don’t Want To Talk About Nuclear War – Antiwar.com Original by — Antiwar.com

With all that said……there is more that needs saying…….why?  Nukes are still a big part of our “defenses”……to the point of add more and more to the stockpile.

Should the United States reject the “first use” of nuclear weapons?  That question was put to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump during their first debate.  Colonel (retired) Andrew Bacevich asks us to take their answers seriously in his latest insightful essay at TomDispatch.com, which I urge you to read here in full.

Trump was asked to respond first, and his rambling answer, I thought, showed the evidence of someone who had crammed for a test.  He was desperate to show he knew something – anything – about America’s nuclear forces (here some may recall how Trump obviously knew little about America’s nuclear triad during the Republican primary debates).  So Trump rambled on about obsolete B-52s flown by the sons and grandsons of previous pilots, a non sequitur since the B-52 has been continuously upgraded with new engines, advanced avionics, the latest in high-tech weaponry, and despite their age they’re still more than capable of doing the job.  But somebody must have told Trump to use the B-52’s age as a talking point, and he was determined to get it in.

Source: Ignorance and Dishonesty: Trump, Hillary, and Nuclear Genocide – LA Progressive

You may have thought nukes were an issue from the past….but in reality they are as much a part of the US as they ever were…..

People who make their living thinking about defense policy and national security like everything to fit into a nice framework, preferably one that can be visualized on a PowerPoint slide. If you are unfortunate enough to be standing next to two officials speaking Pentagonese during a reception, you will note that their language is full of acronyms relating to projects and obscure government agencies—and that they refer regularly to strategic concepts and systems, including the venerable “triad” of nuclear deterrence.

Source: Is Nuclear War Becoming Thinkable? | The American Conservative

Just a few things to consider before you vote……

Tick….Tock……

Gone But Not Forgotten

I remember as a child having to play that game where a bell rings and we assume the position for an atomic blast…..we would hide under desks and put our heads down with our hands over our ears….that was the days of the Cold War when we were close to a nuke war almost everyday…..at least that is what they we preaching…..God I am glad those days are gone…..or are they?

Once the Cold War ended the emphasis on the nuclear threat was lessened…..but the weapons are still there and other countries have moved into the sphere of nuke threat……

The Cold War might be over, but nuclear brinkmanship is still going strong

Source: Why nuclear Armageddon is a very real danger

You know you people really should pull the head out of ass and stop worrying about stuff that is a “maybe” and focus on the things that could actually do you some harm…..but maybe that is too much to ask……appears that Americans can only concentrate on one issue at a time….that could explain the poor choices made in the voting process.

Netanyahu Doesn’t Care About Iran Getting the Bomb | Al Jazeera America

This will most likely not be my last post on the Iran nuke deal…..why?  Everything that can be said ….hasn’t.

But if someone wants to debate on the value of the deal………… please at least know what the deal is…….emotional ramblings is NOT a basis of opposition.  I have posted several posts on the deal and any information you need can be found on IST……holding a grudge for 36 years is not an adequate reason for opposition.

I will revisit this subject if there is a major development that I feel needs to be addressed…….but for now……fascinating……..READ ON!

By now the whole world knows that Israel and especially the  PM BiBi is dead set against the new agreement between Iran and the P5+1……..

He has been predicting that Iran would have a bomb in as little as  6 months to the high end, 5 years……and that has been the case for two decades….Iran will have a bomb…(insert time frame)…….

But could there be more to his predictions and opposition?

 

Netanyahu Doesn’t Care About Iran Getting the Bomb | Al Jazeera America.

Balls To (Sen.) Cotton!

On any normal news day what would you think would be a bigger story?  1) Iranian nuke deal bill clears Senate or 2) the amount of air in  a football or it could be a story about the UK’s labor leader, Balls……….I will pause here for you to consider the two choices……..(insert music from Jeopardy here)………

You are right!  Of course the air in footballs takes precedent over any other news of the day.  But while you were totally consumed by the amount of air in Brady’s balls….the world may have become a bit more safe.

The Senate bill was voted on yesterday…….it was approved 98-1……..

In a 98-1 vote, the Senate has passed a bill which will give them veto power over the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran. The lone “no” vote was from ultrahawkish Sen. Tom Cotton (R – AR), who was angry his amendments weren’t approved.

Senate hawks are expressing hope that even this watered down bill will effectively do that anyhow, saying they believe that Congress would not approve the deal as presently written, and will insist on “improvements” that will themselves almost certainly be unacceptable to the rest of the nations involved.

The lone dissenting vote was naturally the mouthy freshman senator from Arkansas, Tom Cotton….he voted against it because none of his outrageous amendments made it into the bill…..acting like a kid on the playground that will not get his way so he stomps off and refuses to play any more (we should be so lucky)…….But wait there is more!

Sen. Cotton in his rush to squash the Iranian nuke deal has sided with an Iranian “terrorist” group named…………Organization of Iranian American Communities (OIAC), a front group for the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK or MKO).

An interesting sounding group right that pretends to be the “democratic” voice of Iran in search of regime change……but a closer look at the history of the MEK……..

The MEK, which has worked hard – and spent a lot of money — to gain respectability in Washington since its armed units surrendered to U.S. forces in Iraq in 2003, is believed to have been responsible for the killing of six Americans in Iran between 1973 and 1976. Exiled following a power struggle in the early years of the Islamic Republic, the group fought alongside Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. Following a lengthy lobbying and legal campaign that included the payment of substantial honoraria to prominent U.S. politicians and retired national-security officials, the MEK was removed from the State Department’s terrorism list in 2012.

“It appears that Cotton, who has quickly displaced Lindsey Graham as the Senate’s most hawkish member, has decided that it is necessary – perhaps even politically desirable – to make common cause with a group that has committed serious human rights abuses, allied itself for some two decades with Saddam Hussein, and carried out terrorist acts, including against U.S. citizens and servicemen – all in the interests of sabotaging an Iran nuclear agreement.”  (quoted from Lobelog)

In his desire, Cotton, to crap on any chance of a peaceful conclusion of the Iranian nuke situation…..he will chum up with ‘terrorist’ who had , in the past, killed Americans and more recently fought US troops in Iraq just to make his handlers happy…….

Is this someone you want speaking for you?  Seriously!  Is this a person who has the best interests of the country at heart or an opportunistic twat?

I now return you to the mind numbing saga of the grip on Brady’s balls.