A Dire Sunday Thought

Today is Easter and this country is in the midst of this damn pandemic and that brings me to the horrific prediction for today…..

A well-regarded coronavirus forecasting model now says the most ominous coronavirus day in the US won’t be in a week’s time but this Sunday—the date on which the daily death rate in the US is projected to peak at 2,212 deaths. The Tuesday night update to the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model is yet again predicting far fewer American lives lost. Last Thursday, its model put the number at 93,531. The latest update dropped that count to 60,415 by Aug. 4.

There are some other positive downward adjustments, among them, a decrease in the projected number of ventilators needed here from nearly 32,000 to about 16,500, as well as the number of ICU beds needed at the virus’ peak now down to 19,438, a drop of 10,000 from Sunday’s projection. It’s worth noting that the projections are accompanied by this label: “COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020.”

As I was typing this story was reported….

The US death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed Italy’s for the highest in the world Saturday at more than 19,700, as Chicago and other cities across the Midwest braced for a potential surge in victims and moved to snuff out smoldering hot spots of contagion before they erupt, the AP reports. With the New York area still deep in crisis, fear mounted over the spread of the scourge into the nation’s heartland. Twenty-four residents of an Indiana nursing home hit by COVID-19 have died, while a nursing home in Iowa saw 14 deaths. Chicago’s Cook County has set up a temporary morgue that can take more than 2,000 bodies. And Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has been going around telling groups of people to “break it up.”
The outbreak’s center of gravity has long since shifted from China to Europe and the US, which now has by far the largest number of confirmed cases—a half-million—and a death toll higher than Italy’s count of nearly 19,500, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. The death rate—that is, the number of dead relative to the population—is still far higher in Italy than in US, which has more than five times as many people. And worldwide, the true numbers of dead and infected are believed to be much higher because of testing shortages, different counting practices and concealment by some governments. New York state on Saturday reported 783 more deaths, for a total over 8,600. “What do we do now?” asked Gov. Andrew Cuomo. “We stay the course.”

Please continue to do the right thing and self-isolate…..it will save lives…..

Social distancing is inconvenient at best, truly burdensome at worst. What hasn’t helped matters is the confusing messaging of why we should social distance at all. We’ve been conditioned to think social distancing is only about us — lowering the risk to one’s self and one’s family. And yet we’ve also been told that this is something we need to do to protect others.

While not necessarily incorrect, both ways of thinking about it are not equal to the task before us. What we need is an exhortation to act that is grounded firmly in an ethical foundation, one that not only gets at the deeper purpose of social distancing, but that also lays the groundwork for a more resilient society on the other side of this crisis. We as a global society need to see social distancing as nothing less than an act of solidarity, an intentional choice that binds us in a common cause.


Be Calm…..avoid crowds….wash hands often….stay  prepared……

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

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6 thoughts on “A Dire Sunday Thought

  1. America, like the UK, left it all far too late to prevent so many deaths. We can only hope that the trend turns downward after next week.
    Best wishes, Pete.

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