In about 2 weeks we will finally know who had the better campaign…….which Old Fart caught the people’s attention the best?
You know all that support that Trump supposedly has among white men?
There is good news/bad news…..
Good news is the Trump is losing support with whites…..bad news is he, Trump, is gaining with blacks and Hispanics.
Yes Dear you read all that correctly…..losing support with whites….gaining with Hispanics and blacks…..
There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election.
But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t have an outsized effect. Take 2016. President Trump won in large part because he carried white voters without a college degree by a bigger margin than any recent GOP presidential nominee, though there had been signs that this group was shifting rightward for a while.
Likewise in 2018, a strong showing by Democrats in suburban districts and among white voters with a four-year college degree helped the party retake the House, a shift we first saw in 2016 when Trump likely became the first Republican to lose this group in 60 years.1 And this is just scratching the surface. In the past few years, we’ve also seen hints that more women voters are identifying as Democrats and that some nonwhite voters might be getting more Republican-leaning.
Look at the stats closely.
With two weeks to go there are a few things you can do to remain sane…..that is if you want to be sane.
fivethrityeight.com has a method…..
1. Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
2. Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
3. But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
4. Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
5. Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
6. Beware talk of “October surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
7. Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
8. Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
Just hang in there the insanity is nearing its conclusion.
We can soon have a new set of issues to bitch about.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”