Job Numbers Are Worrying

Could all this “booming” economy be worrying news?

The job market is one that has “real” economists worried….that one in the White House only played an economist on TV…nothing about him is expert.

AXIOS has done some research that needs reporting more….

The U.S. jobs market, having long been the bedrock of the nation’s economic expansion, is starting to worry economists ahead of next week’s payroll data.

What’s happening: After years of remarkably smooth sailing, 2019 has brought market volatility and some concern about whether the economy can keep adding jobs at a fast enough pace to sustain the expansion.

What we’re hearing: Job gains don’t necessarily have to turn negative to signal trouble, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told Axios at a labor market conference hosted by payroll processor ADP this week.

All that’s required is a strong slowdown in job growth. A 0.5% increase from a cyclical low on the unemployment rate has accurately predicted every recession in recent history and has never been a false positive, as Brookings economist Claudia Sahm noted recently.

  • “Once unemployment starts to rise, even from a very low level, it undermines confidence, and the only difference between an expanding economy and a recessionary one is faith,” Zandi said.
  • “A recession is a collective loss of faith, and people lose faith when they start seeing unemployment rise.”

Why now? A slowdown is not that unlikely, given the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low — it was 3.6% in May — and employers are reporting more trouble finding people to hire.

  • In a poll of small business owners conducted in May, 25% said that finding qualified workers was their No. 1 problem, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
  • The trade war also is adding stress to the economy, but so far the effects have been concentrated in the trade and export sectors, which make up a small piece of overall employment.

What to watch: The all-important services side of the economy has been strong, but is beginning to feel the impact of the tight labor market, said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of ADP Research Institute. The number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the largest margin on record in April.

  • “Let’s remember you need approximately 100,000 net new jobs to keep the economy moving. We’re still above that level, however there are so many other factors,” she said.
  • “If you look at the last couple months, the jobs numbers were really, really volatile.”

The bottom line: Another blowout print like January’s, which showed 312,000 jobs added, will calm a lot of jitters.

Keep in mind that there is more to an economy than just the markets……but the MSM wants every American to believe all is good as long as the profits are being made by corporations…..not necessarily so.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

4 thoughts on “Job Numbers Are Worrying

  1. Around the world, the whole concept of what constitutes a ‘job’ is changing. Internships, short-hours contracts, even people working for nothing other than the ‘job experience’. And the Gig economies, with people self-employed and paid ‘per job’. Since the time I stopped working, it has been rapidly descending into something of a free for all in the job market. ‘Jobs for life’ and ‘careers’ are disappearing fast.
    Best wishes, Pete.

    1. Yeah and I am retired so most of the time I care little…..an awful way to be but I have reading to do and jobs is just simply a lip service topic of politicians. chuq

  2. I have been expecting a recession for several years, but the economy keeps going. There is lot about economics I don’t understand. But you can’t keep adding jobs when workers are not available. That I go understand, I don’t have any predictions.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.