Tag: Political Economy

Job Numbers Are Worrying

Could all this “booming” economy be worrying news?

The job market is one that has “real” economists worried….that one in the White House only played an economist on TV…nothing about him is expert.

AXIOS has done some research that needs reporting more….

The U.S. jobs market, having long been the bedrock of the nation’s economic expansion, is starting to worry economists ahead of next week’s payroll data.

What’s happening: After years of remarkably smooth sailing, 2019 has brought market volatility and some concern about whether the economy can keep adding jobs at a fast enough pace to sustain the expansion.

What we’re hearing: Job gains don’t necessarily have to turn negative to signal trouble, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told Axios at a labor market conference hosted by payroll processor ADP this week.

All that’s required is a strong slowdown in job growth. A 0.5% increase from a cyclical low on the unemployment rate has accurately predicted every recession in recent history and has never been a false positive, as Brookings economist Claudia Sahm noted recently.

  • “Once unemployment starts to rise, even from a very low level, it undermines confidence, and the only difference between an expanding economy and a recessionary one is faith,” Zandi said.
  • “A recession is a collective loss of faith, and people lose faith when they start seeing unemployment rise.”

Why now? A slowdown is not that unlikely, given the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low — it was 3.6% in May — and employers are reporting more trouble finding people to hire.

  • In a poll of small business owners conducted in May, 25% said that finding qualified workers was their No. 1 problem, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
  • The trade war also is adding stress to the economy, but so far the effects have been concentrated in the trade and export sectors, which make up a small piece of overall employment.

What to watch: The all-important services side of the economy has been strong, but is beginning to feel the impact of the tight labor market, said Ahu Yildirmaz, co-head of ADP Research Institute. The number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the largest margin on record in April.

  • “Let’s remember you need approximately 100,000 net new jobs to keep the economy moving. We’re still above that level, however there are so many other factors,” she said.
  • “If you look at the last couple months, the jobs numbers were really, really volatile.”

The bottom line: Another blowout print like January’s, which showed 312,000 jobs added, will calm a lot of jitters.

Keep in mind that there is more to an economy than just the markets……but the MSM wants every American to believe all is good as long as the profits are being made by corporations…..not necessarily so.

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American Oligarchy

It is time to look at the election that is approaching……we now have 4 candidates…..2 from each party………. time has run for me to ignore the side show……

We Americans will argue all day about the benefits of the democracy under which we live……the problem with that is we live under an oligarchy…..we stopped being democratic years ago……

Let the heard scratching has begun……what the Hell is an oligarchy?  An oligarchy is a form of government in which most of the political power effectively rests with a small segment of society, typically the people who have the most wealth, military strength, ruthlessness or political influence. The word “oligarchy” from the Greek words olígos, which means “few,” and archo, which means “to rule”. Some political theorists have argued that all societies are inevitably oligarchies, regardless of their supposed political system.

Societies also might become oligarchies by default, as an outgrowth of the shifting alliances of warring tribal chieftains, although any form of government might transform into an oligarchy at some point in its evolution. The most likely mechanism for this transformation is a gradual accumulation of otherwise unchecked economic power. Oligarchies also might evolve into more classically authoritarian forms of government, sometimes as the result of one family gaining ascendancy over the others. Many of the European monarchies established during the late Middle Ages began in this way.

Now that you have a grasp of what an oligarchy is……check out the article on that same subject…….

Read on my friends, read on!

 

American Oligarchy.

Economics–The Primer

Today is Thursday and the fourth day of my touching on the issues that should be at the forefront of politics and the mid term election……today’s fare……the Economy.

Oh boy!  I can hear all the heavy sighs and see the eye rolling……at this point anyone not interested in economics will go into a catatonic trance and veg out……am I wrong?

This is for those that think knowledge of economics is essential to understanding the politics of the nation.  Economics is one of those subjects that few enjoy and even fewer understand……and that is Why I Am Here!  I try to give a simple definition or explanation….I dumb down, if you will, the complexities of a science that will make your eyes bleed.

There are many theories in the field of economics……Marx will make you catatonic, he should have been a Russian……..then there is micro and macro economics….not the same thing at all…..and then there are the ones, if you know anything about the field will make laugh hysterically….like the Laffer Curve or better known as trickle down economics……..(just saying the term makes me bust into raucous laughter)……..and there is the rub…..which one of these is the true form of economic analysis?

Now we come the the field that has done more to complicate the field than anything……the media and its so called experts that are interviewed……..I read a great piece that helps people understand what is happening when news is reported…..

(Newser) – The next time you hear an economist make a bold pronouncement, you should probably be a bit skeptical, because the entire field “is desperately in need of a paradigm shift,” argues Mark Buchanan at Bloomberg. Why? Because most economic models are based on the idea that individuals make decisions rationally—which is to say, based “on the same unbiased, probabilistic view of the future.” Which is basically crazy. “It’s like a physics teacher assuming that students already know by instinct the exact mathematical form of Einstein’s relativity theory.”

Want evidence? In a recent study, economics students were asked to forecast outcomes in an economy governed by simple equations—without knowing those equations, and given that the students themselves could affect things. Their predictions were all over the map. “Include realistic behavior in your models, and you get a realistically complex economy that is very hard to predict and control.” And that’s what we desperately need, because “in such chaos lies economic reality.” Click for Buchanan’s full column.

Economics is NO different than any other issue in the news…….they have a premise and they will find people to reinforce that view……in other words, it is ALL spin……..they do not talk to the people….the very ones that will make an economy work…….why is that?

Basically and simply put…this is how they can control the economy completely…..if the people have NO idea what is happening until it is too late then it is a worthwhile endeavor…..and the MSM does nothing to enhance the people’s knowledge of the economy or economics in general…….people need to grasp the understanding of how stuff works and the economy is one of those…..and that is Why I Am Here!

It’s The Economy, Stupid!

Inkwell Institute

Professor’s Classroom

Subject:  Political Theory/Economics

Paper #20

I believe it was Clinton or maybe one of his lackeys that came up with that line….but it is accurate….we cannot talk political theory without talking about the economy (for this post in general terms)……But beyond the cute saying…..NO study of politics could ever be complete without a study of economics….for these two are forever twined…..

Just look at any modern political campaign……and what are the main issues?  90% of them are involved with some sort of economic planning…yes I said planning….the USSR and other ‘socialist’ regime are NOT the only political system that has its planning phase….even here in the good old US of A…..think it is wrong?  Then what to you call the plans to cut the budget?

As in almost all other subjects within political philosophy different ideologies view the economy in different lights…let us navigate through the major ideologies on the economy……the breakdown is pretty predictable….

Liberals see the economy as vital part of civil society and have a strong preference for a market or capitalist economic order hat is based on property, competition and material incentives.  However, classical liberals (from the old days) favor laissez-faire capitalism which is the real free markets….modern liberals recognize the limits of  the markets and accept limited economic management.

Conservatives show a clear support for private enterprise but have favored a limited pragmatic form of intervention to eliminate the free for all of laissez-faire and the risks of social instability.  The “New Right” is embracing a unregulated form of capitalism.

Socialists, especially the Marxists, have expressed a preference for common ownership and absolute social equality, which is expressed in forms of state collectivism and state central planning.  However the Social Democrats support regulated capitlaism, believing the market is a good servant but a bad master.

The Anarchists reject all forms of economic control or management….however the anarcho-capitalist advocates an entirely unregulated market economy……(NOT ALL Anarchists are bomb throwers….sorry to burst a bubble here).

Fascists have traditionally looked for a ‘third way’ for the economy……somewhere between capitalism and communism…….settling on the idea of corporatism, which draws labor and capital together in this so-called ‘organic whole’………It consists of nationalizations and planning in an attempt to subordinate profit to the needs of the nation……..(which never seems to work the way it is suppose to…kinda like socialism).

There you have the major ideologies and what the economy would look like if they were in control……once again the definitions are very simple in an attempt to make it a bit clearer to my readers….as you can see the economy and politics are linked together for all time…..one cannot study the one side of this equation and hope to grasp the complexities of governance…..

Afterword:  I am NOT trying to sway anyone to my way of political thinking (though I would not object if it did) I just want my readers to realize that there are many ways to view different issues and that not all of us see everything in right or wrong……..