A Middle East Cold War

2016 is shaking out as an election on foreign policy…..the winner will be ass deep in the Middle East for decades longer…..

The Cold War that we all know and love was  between the years of 1945 and 1991….when the US and Western powers would stand-off against the Soviet Union…….across the globe.

In 1979 with the Iranian revolution there began another Cold War….this one was for the hearts and minds of the Middle East…..waged between Saudi Arabia and Iran……

For years the Saudis had the upper hand thanks mostly to their close ties with Washington……but in the last decade or so……… that pendulum is swinging toward Iran……

Just as the US and the USSR fought proxy wars the Saudis and the Iranians are doing the same things……the battlefields are in such places as Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon….and the situation seems to be expanding…..

A cold war is taking place in a very hot place. A key component of the sectarian competition between Shia and Sunni Islam in the Middle East is geopolitical, with Iran facing off against Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies in a struggle for regional dominance.

As with the original Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, the conflict does not involve direct military confrontation between the main rivals, at least not yet. It is being fought diplomatically, ideologically, and economically – especially in the oil markets – and through proxy wars, such as the conflicts in Syria and Yemen. There are few problems in the wider Middle East that cannot be traced back to the power rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Source: Is Iran winning their Mideast Cold War with Saudi Arabia? | Informed Comment

truemapofmiddleeastThomas_Map-01

There are more observations of the “Middle East Cold War”……..

There are, at the present moment, four game plans colliding with each other in a terrain filled with hidden mines. The sum of the collusion will be totally different than the objectives of each of the players. Worst, no one has the ability to predict the outcome, not even the players themselves.

Let us examine briefly each game plan as seen by each player before addressing, in general, the potential paths of this dangerous game.

Saudi Arabia:

From the Saudi perspective, Iran has gone too far. Ideologically, Tehran enshrined the export of its revolution into its constitution. Practically, it has the Quds Force of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) to make sure that this principle is implemented. Furthermore, it achieved progress through infiltrating Iraq after the US-UK ill-advised invasion and it moved and it is actively present in Damascus now. This came after successfully creating Hezbollah in Lebanon and was followed by the Houthi rebellion in Yemen and the control over Sana’a. The Shia Crescent developed into a full moon.

Source: Washington, Moscow, Tehran and Riyadh: The Coming Conflict over the Middle East | Middle East Briefing

This is the region that the US created and the problems that our new prez will be facing….personally I do not see either one of the candidates capable of making the most important decisions pertaining to the region.

Do you?

7 thoughts on “A Middle East Cold War

  1. It is my hypothesis that the US had a longer game plan in mind when we invaded Iraq. By deposing in 2003, Iraqi’s President Hussein and his elite military forces, all Sunnis, we were opening Iraq to Shia influence because the majority of non ruling Iraqis are Shia. This would alter the balance of power towards Iran, a Shia country, whereas Saudi Arabia practices a very conservative form of the Sunni religion.

    I cannot see how Saudi Arabia would have supported our first 2003 adventure without the understanding that we would later deal with Iran. President Obama has upset the plans of both Saudi Arabia and Israel.

    I just want this craziness to end which means having Saudi Arabia accept reality that President Assad of Syria will remain in power at least, through a transition period. Then we can form a coalition to truly focus on destroying ISIS and like minded militants. Turkey will have to gain control over a porous border and put the destruction of ISIS first over Turkey’s need to fight the Kurds PKK militants.

    Then all the parties will have to come to the table to iron out an agreement in good faith. Isn’t this a marvelous fantasy? Gronda
    .

Leave a Reply to loboteroCancel reply