I will return to the situation in Ukraine….it is in the headlines but not as important as some other stories…….and that is why…I AM HERE!
The situation in Ukraine has gone from bad to worse to good….well that is what the media wants the world to believe….they want the rest of us to buy into the triumph of democracy……I think that wish may be a bit premature.
Russia is the easiest answer……the Ukraine has a huge ethnic Russian population and the question should be….will Russia intervene to protect this population? Kinda reminiscent of of the acts of Germany in the 1930’s……us protection of an ethnic population to further their expansionist ideals……Let’s step back a bit.
We all know about the downfall of the USSR……we know that it fell and that is proof that communism is a failure (that is something we can debate….but only if it is a good debate….saying it was evil is NOT a good argument).
After the break-up the US and the IMF demanded that Russia install ‘free market’ economy…..they did as they were instructed and the recession of 1998 caught them with their pants down and the resignation of Yeltsin and the coming to power of a former KGB operative, Putin and the fun began. A case could be made that the US and the IMF brought Putin to the power elite and now we must face the consequences.
Putin has an idea to return Russia into an ’empire’ if you will…….his idea….a “Eurasian Union”
The new union would include authoritarian Kazakhstan and Belarus to begin with before expanding to take in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and then, Mr Putin hopes, other former Soviet republics. Mr Putin did not say so but it is known that he would dearly like to see Ukraine sign up to his master plan.
His is a bold idea and one that immediately and unsurprisingly drew admiration from Russian nationalists. Older Russians, who hark after the paternalism and stability of the defunct Soviet Union, are also likely to appreciate the plan. Mr Putin was at pains to say however that his mission was not to recreate the Soviet Union.
What could that mean…internationally that is?
The Kremlin intends to have the EuU fully formed by 2015, when Russia believes the United States will return its focus to Eurasia. Washington is wrapping up its commitments to Iraq this year and intends to end combat operations and greatly reduce forces in Afghanistan, so by 2015, the United States will have military and diplomatic attention to spare. This is also the same time period in which the U.S. ballistic missile defense installations in Central Europe will break ground. To Russia, this amounts to a U.S. and pro-U.S. front in Central Europe forming on the former Soviet (and future EuU) borders. It is the creation of a new version of the Russian empire, combined with the U.S. consolidation of influence on that empire’s periphery, that most likely will spark new hostilities between Moscow and Washington.
This could set the stage for a new version of the Cold War, though it would not be as long-lived as the previous one. Putin’s other reason for re-establishing some kind of Russian empire is that he knows the next crisis to affect Russia most likely will keep the country from ever resurging again: Russia is dying. The country’s demographics are among some of the world’s worst, having declined steadily since World War I. Its birth rates are well below death rates, and it already has more citizens in their 50s than in their teens. Russia could be a major power without a solid economy, but no country can be a global power without people. This is why Putin is attempting to strengthen and secure Russia now, before demographics weaken it. However, even taking its demographics into account, Russia will be able to sustain its current growth in power for at least another generation. This means that the next few years likely are Russia’s last great moment — one that will be marked by the country’s return as a regional empire and a new confrontation with its previous adversary, the United States.
thanx to BBC News for map.
The question on everybody’s mind today is will Russia intervene in the Ukraine most especially southern Ukraine?
Personally, I think that the question of the ethnic Russians is the key to whatever Putin has planned….and of course to protect the warm water port in the Crimea……put nothing beyond his capabilities…..all you have to do is remind yourself of his military force used against another country, Georgia.
Will he act….it is a coin toss right now…but all that could change with one single thoughtless action by some well meaning Ukrainian nationalist.