Day: February 24, 2014

Is History On A Tireless Loop?

Inkwell Institute

Eurasian Desk

From the days when I was studying international relations I was fascinated by conflict and its resolution……and that has lead me to interests in Middle East and now the Ukraine……it will be interesting to see how this situation turns out……will it be a calm transition or will the specter of civil war once again raise its ugly head?

I want to ask this question but I fear it may be a bit much, considering the sad condition that our educational system is in….but what the Hell?

What did Germany use as a pretense of invading Czechoslovakia and Poland?

(Pause here for thought or the use of the Google finger)………he invaded to protect the ethnic Germans living in the region……why do I bring this up?  just look at the map provided below…..Putin could use that excuse for an invasion, of sorts, into the Ukraine to protect ethnic Russians……also let us not forget that the Russians have a massive naval force in the Crimea and he will want to protect that port at all costs……..

Using above map…….if this situation boils down to a civil war…we will be looking at another Iraq and/or Syria.

All this depends on what Putin and Russia are willing to do……take into consideration they had NO problem invading Georgia back in the first decade of the 21st century….all on the pretense of protecting Russians……

Will this cycle repeat itself?

Another thing to consider is the US has a proposal to lighten the army to a total of 450,000 men/women under arms……this could be another thing that Putin would consider invading and US that is war weary and may not react aggressively…….

There are many variables here……but the one thing we can be sure of is that Putin and Russia have not given their final word on the situation…….and another thing to think about….could this be an Arab Spring-like movement for the area we call Eurasia?  Could this be the beginning of my “Linch Pin” prediction?

Sad part for me is that Americans will have little say until their brains, the media, starts telling them what to think and then there will be a wealth of opinions….none of which will be accurate in any way…….

Thoughts?

Ukraine–UpDate

So much has happened in the Ukraine in the past couple of days……a peace deal that did not take effect before more violence….a second peace deal that seems to quiet the opposition……the elected prez on the run……a jailed opposition leader released from prison to form a new government….and now some breaking news……

Ousted Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovich is now officially a fugitive from justice, just two days after the country’s parliament voted to remove him from office. The country’s interim interior minister has issued an arrest warrant accusing the ex-leader of “mass murder of peaceful citizens” over the deaths of scores of protesters in Kiev last week, the BBC reports.

  • Yanukovich, who fled the capital over the weekend while still declaring himself the country’s legitimate leader, seems highly unlikely to turn himself in. Officials say he was last seen in the autonomous and strongly pro-Russia Crimea region, but left by car for an unknown destination.
  • The Obama administration has warned Russia against sending troops to Ukraine, which is split between a pro-Russia east and pro-European Union west, Voice of America reports. Russian intervention would be a “grave mistake,” National Security Adviser Susan Rice warned yesterday. “It is not in the interest of Ukraine or of Russia, or Europe, or the United States to see the country split. It is in nobody’s interest to see violence return and the situation escalate.”
  • The Kremlin has recalled its ambassador to Kiev and there have been pro-Yanukovich demonstrations in parts of the country, but fears of a split are easing, the New York Times finds. Yanukovich’s own party has now turned against him, issuing a statement accusing him of betraying a country that now finds itself “deceived and robbed.”
  • Parliament speaker and acting president Oleksandr Turchinov—an ally of now-freed Yanukovich archrival Yulia Tymoshenko is expected to form a unity government before tomorrow to run the country until elections in May. But whoever takes charge will face very tough challenges, including an economy in crisis, Reuters notes. To ease the transition, the EU and US have both offered financial aid.

This is yet another civil war in the making….the US might want to think of something beyond rhetoric to handle the situation as it develops……just thought.

Russia’s covert role in the Ukrainian crisis | World | DW.DE | 18.02.2014

There will be accusations on both sides of this situation……but who will win in the end?

Found this while doing some surfing today………….thought it might add to the conversation….that is if I can get one started…..full disclosure…I cannot attest to the accuracy of this article….just want to start the debate…….

Russia’s covert role in the Ukrainian crisis | World | DW.DE | 18.02.2014.

Do We Care About The Ukraine?

For over a month the Ukraine has been butt deep in revolt……the media called it a protest…..but if you would have checked the situation then you to would call it a revolt.  But the question before us is…..do we really care what happens in the Ukraine?

The best answer is…..NO!  Most Americans could care less.

The events that have been turning in Ukraine are working a a fevered pace……the government of the country broke with the EU in favor a closer relationship with Russia and all Hell broke lose…..and after a couple of weeks of violence a ceasefire (if you will) was signed and then the country went into overdrive…….

It’s a day of fast-moving developments in Ukraine: The parliament voted to oust President Viktor Yanukovich, while he fled Kiev but vowed to stay in office. Meanwhile, his main political rival has been freed from prison after two years, declaring that “a dictatorship has fallen.” It’s a jumbled mess, but one thing that’s clear is that yesterday’s concessions by the government won’t be enough to appease protesters:

  • Parliament boots Yanukovich: Lawmakers voted to remove him from office and set new elections for May 25, reports the New York Times. His spokesperson rejected the vote.
  • Yanukovich vows to stay: In a recorded TV interview, Yanukovich declared that he will not leave office, reports the BBC. The president, who has fled Kiev but whose whereabouts are unknown, denounced what’s happening in the capital as “vandalism, banditry, and a coup.”
  • Tymoshenko free: Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has been freed from prison after two years, reports AP. Earlier, parliament elected one of her allies as the new speaker.
  • Protesters defiant: They seized control of the presidential headquarters in Kiev after factions rejected yesterday’s deal because it left Yanukovich in power. “We will guard the building until the next president comes,” one commander tells Reuters. “Yanukovich will never be back.”

All that was the day after an agreement was reached between the government and the opposition…….and then this……

Ukrainian opposition icon and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko arrived today at a Kiev protest camp after being released from a hospital where she was incarcerated. “You are heroes, you are the best thing in Ukraine!” she said of those killed in the violence, looking tired and speaking from a wheelchair as she addressed a euphoric crowd of thousands. The BBC reports that she didn’t favor amnesty for her political opponents, saying, “We simply cannot afford to pardon those who were allowed to send bullets into the hearts of our young men.” She promised to let the public know what is happening “back stage” in the “big theater” of politics, and said she would run for the presidency in May. But some who support regime change were less than enthusiastic, seeing her as a face from the past with her own political baggage, NBC News reports. “She was a part of the system, and that’s why maybe a fresh face and a fresh person would be a better choice than someone who was already there,” said a woman in the crowd. Meanwhile, the far-right Ukrainian opposition group Right Sector vowed to keep protesting Yanukovych’s ouster, Reuters reports. “The Right Sector will not disperse,” the group said. “Now we must be more united than before.” Click for more on what’s happening in the Ukraine.

As of yesterday, Sunday, 23Feb, the worm has turned yet again…….

The whereabouts and legitimacy of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych are still unclear today, after he left the capital and archrival Yulia Tymoshenko was freed from prison and returned to Kiev to address a massive, adoring crowd. Ukraine’s newly emboldened legislature voted today to hand the president’s powers to parliament speaker Oleksandr Turchinov, a Tymoshenko ally. Turchinov in turn informed MPs that they had until Tuesday to form a unity government, notes the BBC, telling them “this is a priority task.” Parliament also voted to remove a string of government ministers, as well as confiscate the luxury estate of Yanukovych (the New York Times takes a look inside, which includes a golf course, private zoo, and restaurant inside a pirate ship). But Yanukovych has dismissed parliament decisions in recent days as illegal. A plane with Yanukovych onboard was denied permission to take off last night from Donetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine that is his base of support. A spokesman said this morning that even he does not know where Yanukovych is. The Kiev protest camp at the center of the anti-Yanukovych movement filled with more and more dedicated demonstrators this morning setting up new tents after a day that saw a stunning reversal of fortune in a political standoff that has left scores dead. “We need to catch and punish those with blood on their hands,” said a 45-year-old engineer on Independence Square today.

Right on cue…..as usual…….McCain had to spout his brand of foreign policy……..lip service……….

John McCain had some stern words for Vladimir Putin today, saying that it was clear that the people of Ukraine “want to be Western” and not “Eastern,” and that the protests there ought to make the Russian strongman, an ally of Viktor Yanukovych, more than a little uneasy about his own leadership in Russia. “If I were Vladimir Putin, I would be little bit nervous.” He cautioned that splitting Ukraine along Eastern-Western ideological lines was “totally unacceptable,” reports Politico. National security adviser Susan Rice chimed right in, per the AP, warning Putin that getting involved “would be a grave mistake. It’s not in the interest of Ukraine or of Russia or of Europe or the United States to see the country split.”

Just like when Russia invade Georgia several years ago….McCain was quick to condemn such action saying that countries do not invade other countries in the 21st century…..he forgot about Iraq I guess…..we could write it off on old age ……….

Okay the violence is over…..well for now…..there will be a bloodbath in the near future……this situation will not go away quietly…..or peaceably…….this is far from over….the question will be…just how deep will the US or the EU care to dive into this mess?