Not Since The Great Depression

That is what is being said about the jobs loss thanks to the virus were are currently fighting…..our economy has lost 21 million jobs…..that is a rate of 14.5%……..

The monthly jobs report is out at 8:30am ET Friday, when we’ll find out just how grim the April employment numbers are. The March report was “shocking,” without even showing the true brunt of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact since the relevant surveys end mid-month. Media outlets are frequently using words like “devastating” to describe what’s in store for the April report. It’s not unexpected, of course, as millions upon millions have been filing for unemployment for weeks, but as the New York Times explains, it’s the monthly report more so than the weekly unemployment numbers that is generally scrutinized “for evidence of how the economy is evolving.” More:

  • Just how bad? CNBC reports that the report is expected to show that the US lost a record 21.5 million jobs last month. We could also see the highest unemployment rate since 1939, at the end of the Great Depression and shortly before World War II.
  • More on that unemployment rate: Analysts are predicting it’ll hit 16%, which would indeed make it the worst rate since the Great Depression. But they say it could range anywhere from 11% to 20% due to the way individuals are surveyed by the government. It also depends on whether furloughed employees identify themselves as employed or unemployed.
  • A preview: ADP’s April payroll report was released Wednesday, and showed 20.2 million private-sector jobs lost.
  • Perspective: The Washington Post reports that if 22 million jobs are shown to have been lost, as some analysts expect, that’s “the equivalent of all those added over the past decade” and 10 times more than the previous record, set during World War II. During the Great Recession, the worst monthly job loss was 800,000, in March 2009.
  • What the report will tell us: “It’s understood leisure and hospitality and retail have seen a large displacement of workers, and that’s apparent in the claims numbers,” but the job report details showing what other industries are most affected will be very telling, says an expert. “The extent that has spread across the economy will tell us a lot, and the more it has spread, the more challenging it will be to return to normal.” If the losses remain mostly contained to industries directly affected by the pandemic, recovery could be quicker.
  • But it still won’t show the full picture: As NPR notes, not only have millions more jobs once again been lost since the surveys for the report were taken in mid-April, the unemployment rate “includes only people who are actively looking for work and those on temporary furlough, ignoring millions more who have been involuntarily idled by the pandemic.”
  • A sobering read: The aforementioned Times piece, written by Neil Irwin, who has covered the monthly jobs report release for 13 years, is worth a read in full. “And now, in a single month, a decade’s worth of progress—measured, in my case, by waking up early on 120 or so Friday mornings and analyzing tables that showed gradual, consistent hiring—has vanished,” he writes. “The employment situation summary at the start of this year was the best it had been in the 13 years I have obsessively tracked these numbers, and a lot of good things were starting to happen for a lot of people as a result. And now, it’s gone.”

If you do not like that analysis then here are a couple other sources to look at…..

Ask yourself one question….how can such a dire prediction have the markets still doing well…..who does the economy represent?  I know the answer….do you?

Most Americans think it is too early to push for this re-opening of the Trumpian minions…..

In their latest poll (conducted May 3-5), The Economist/YouGov found that only 11 percent of adults believed it was safe to end social distancing and reopen businesses right now. Six percent said it would be safe in about two weeks, and another 19 percent said it would be in a month or so. A plurality (29 percent) thought it would take several months, and 15 percent even said a year or longer. A Morning Consult survey taken April 29-30 found that just 20 percent of registered voters thought the economy should reopen in April (i.e., immediately) or May, 37 percent said June or July, 16 percent said August or September, and 12 percent said October or later. And a May 5 poll from Global Strategy Group and GBAO for left-leaning firm Navigator Research found that 60 percent of Americans opposed reopening the country in the next few weeks, versus 36 percent who supported it. Finally, a May 2-5 poll by Civiqs for Daily Kos asked respondents flat out whether they supported having a stay-at-home order in place in their state: Sixty-five percent said yes, and 29 percent said no.

Most Americans Think It’s Too Soon To Return To What Life Was Like Pre-Pandemic

And yet……we are starting to allow people to return to the economy…but they suggest they continue to wear masks…..there is NOT enough cops to enforce that rule….so be prepared for the next surge of cases.

You Asked For It…..You Got It!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

7 thoughts on “Not Since The Great Depression

  1. Why were all those people fired? Surely the companies will need them again once they reopen? They could have arranged something to at least keep them shown as employees, or given them letters that they will be taken back when it is all over. Is it so they can claim some benefit money?
    Best wishes, Pete.

    1. I agree….I think it is some sort of legal issue… insurance has been lost and any other benefits the companies would be liable for if they were still considered employees….just a guess….chuq

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.