A Terrorist ‘What If’

Our  Dear Leader is saying that ISIS has been defeated….my question is in which region are they defeated?  As far as I can tell they are still active just not as bad ass as they were 3 years ago…..regardless they are still there….another con job played on his supporters.

Even with that president guy saying differently the military is concerned………

What keeps U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Thomas Waldhauser up at night? That remains unknown, but the analysts under his command are worried about terrorist organizations like the Islamic State, Al Qaeda, and Boko Haram combining forces and destabilizing large swaths of the African continent.

Planning documents issued in October 2017 and classified by Waldhauser detail the worst-case scenarios imagined by the command. The forecasts, which are an update to AFRICOM’s Theater Campaign Plan and were obtained by The Intercept via a Freedom of Information Act request, center around potential gains by terrorist organizations in the north and west of the continent, specifically Libya, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad basin. They offer a nightmare vision of a destabilized, crisis-ridden region that could – if the worst happens — fall increasingly under the control of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Boko Haram.

https://theintercept.com/2018/09/12/boko-haram-isis-west-africa-africom/

But let’s say ISIS is as Trump says defeated….what is next?

With the Islamic State’s caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even more deadly and operationally capable than the core organization was during its peak in 2015. With ISIS franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there is no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world’s most dangerous terrorist group.

Many factors could fuel the rise of a new Islamic State (ISIS) offshoot, including the relative weakness of the security forces in the area where the terrorists are operating, so it difficult to discern which affiliate could become the next major threat. Additionally, measuring the threat will require an intimate understanding of an affiliates’ capabilities, the degree to which safe haven and sanctuary are available, and the relative ease with which the group can replenish its resources.

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2018/10/09/predicting_the_next_isis_112892.html

In my opinion we need to stop fighting a tactic and try something new……a new direction…..not ever answer of a bigger bomb is the best answer.

The United States is engaged in an unusual global war, fighting a tactic rather than an enemy nation. Unlike traditional warfare, it is possible that this war between the US and terrorist networks will not produce a clear winner. The US and its allies have been involved in military engagements over the past decade and a half, costing the US taxpayer an estimated $1.5 to $5.6 trillion dollars. The longer the US remains embroiled in this armed conflict, the less likely it is that such a war ends favorably from an American perspective. While US defense strategy will need to include counter-terrorism efforts for decades to come, it is time to end the war by beginning to reframe the narrative behind the Global War on Terror (GWOT).

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/stop-fighting-war-against-tactic

A new Congress……. maybe this is something to consider…..just a thought.

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6 thoughts on “A Terrorist ‘What If’

  1. Just because they are not hitting soft targets in Europe doesn’t mean they have gone away. Their African offshoots are still ‘busy’, and I doubt it will be too long before they appear in more countries like Tunisia too. Best not to write them odd as ‘defeated’.
    Best wishes, Pete.

  2. I fully agree, chuq. Common sense suggests that people following an ideology generally don’t just give up on the ideology even though they might stop fighting. (i.e, the Nazis, the Klan, etc.) Trump declaring some kind of victory over Isis is just like Bush and his “Mission Accomplished” banner blunder. If anything they might be dormant and waiting, and/or evolving into some less overt strategy down the line. We should in no way fool ourselves into thinking otherwise.
    The Saudis certainly owe us a favor for their recent inept murder boondoggle.. get them to take out Assad and be done with it. At this point if the Russian want to fill that vacuum with their own puppet more power to them. It matter not who’s puppet restores order. We should get outta there.

    1. The bigger question is…do the Syrian people want him, Assad, gone? Matters not what we want…..plus we have a crappy record of choosing leaders for a people….chuq

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