But Can He win?

Rolling…..Rolling….Rolling onto South Carolina……….

Ten days of the media hyping unrealistic analysis……

The New Hampshire gave a bit of a surprise……Mitt finally broke the 25% mark…hip hip hooray…….

Our man in politics, Mitt….well maybe your man but not my man in any sense of the word…..is looking pretty good and some say South Carolina may not be his state and that his really challenge will come in Florida the next stop on the 2012 election Reality Road Show…….but is he capable of winning an election against an incumbent president?

I read all sorts of stuff….but right and left opinions…..and I found this piece of analysis written by John Hawkins for Right Wing News…….he talks about the idea of Mitt being elected is just wishful thinking at best….

1) People just don’t like Mitt: The entire GOP primary process so far has consisted of Republican voters desperately trying to find an alternative to Mitt Romney. Doesn’t it say something that GOP primary voters have, at one time or another, preferred Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, and now even Ron Paul (In Iowa) to Mitt Romney?

To some people, this is a plus. They think that if conservatives don’t like Mitt Romney, that means moderates will like him. This misunderstands how the process of attracting independent voters works in a presidential race. While it’s true the swayable moderates don’t want to support a candidate they view as an extremist, they also don’t just automatically gravitate towards the most “moderate” candidate. To the contrary, independent voters tend to be moved by the excitement of the candidate’s base (See John McCain vs. Barack Obama for an example of how this works). This is how a very conservative candidate like Ronald Reagan could win landslide victories. He avoided being labeled an extremist as Goldwater was; yet his supporters were incredibly enthusiastic and moderates responded to it.

2) He’s a proven political loser: There’s a reason Mitt Romney has been able to say that he’s “not a career politician.” It’s because he’s not very good at politics. He lost to Ted Kennedy in 1994. Although he did win the governorship of Massachusetts in 2002, he did it without cracking 50% of the vote. Worse yet, he left office as the 48th most popular governor in America and would have lost if he had run again in 2006. Then, to top that off, he failed to capture the GOP nomination in 2008. This time around, despite having almost every advantage over what many people consider to be a weak field of candidates, Romney is still desperately struggling. Choosing Romney as the GOP nominee after running up that sort of track record would be like promoting a first baseman hitting .225 in AAA to the majors.

3) Running weak in the southern states: Barack Obama won North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida in 2008 and you can be sure that he will be targeting all three of those states again. This is a problem for Romney because he would be much less likely than either Gingrich or Perry to carry any of those states. Moderate northern Republicans have consistently performed poorly in the south and Romney won’t be any exception. That was certainly the case in 2008 when both McCain and Huckabee dominated Romney in primaries across the south. Mitt didn’t win a single primary in a southern state and although he finished second in Florida, he wasn’t even competitive in North Carolina or Virginia. Since losing any one of those states could be enough to hand the election to Obama in a close race, Mitt’s weakness there is no small matter.

4) His advantages disappear in a general election: It’s actually amazing that Mitt Romney isn’t lapping the whole field by 50 points because he has every advantage. Mitt has been running for President longer than the other contenders. He has more money and a better organization than the other candidates. The party establishment and inside the beltway media are firmly in his corner. That’s why the other nominees have been absolutely savaged while Romney, like John McCain before him, has been allowed to skate through the primaries without receiving serious scrutiny.

5) Bain Capital: Mitt Romney became rich working for Bain Capital. This has been a plus for Romney in the Republican primaries where the grassroots tend to be dominated by people who love capitalism and the free market. However, in a year when Obama will be running a populist campaign and Occupy Wall Street is demonizing the “1%,” Mitt Romney will be a TAILOR MADE villain for them. Did you know that Bain Capital gutted companies and made a lot of money, in part, by laying off a lot of poor and middle class Americans? Do you know that Bain Capital got a federal bailout and Mitt Romney made lots of money off of it?

6) The Mormon Factor: This is a sensitive topic; so I am going to handle it much, much more gently than Hollywood and the mainstream media will if Mitt gets the nomination. Mormons do believe in Jesus Christ, the Mormon Church does a lot of good work, the ones I’ve met seem to be good people, and two of my best friends are Mormons. That being said, Mormons are not considered to be a mainstream Christian religion in large swathes of the country. There will be Protestants who will have deep reservations about voting a Mormon into the White House because they’ll be afraid it will help promote what they believe to be a false religion. There have also been a number of polls that show that significant numbers of Americans won’t vote for a Mormon as President.

7) He’s a flip-flopper. Maybe my memory is failing me, but didn’t George Bush beat John Kerry’s brains in with the “flip flopper” charge back in 2004? So now, just eight years later, the GOP is going to run someone that even our own side agrees is a flip-flopper right out of the gate? Romney doesn’t even handle the charge well. When Brett Baier at Fox pointed out the obvious, Romney’s response was to get huffy and deny that he was flip flopping, which is kind of like Lady Gaga denying that she likes to get attention. If Mitt can’t even handle run-of-the-mill questions from FOX NEWS about his flip flopping, what makes anyone think he can deal with the rest of the press in a general election?

There are a lot of issues with trying to run a candidate who doesn’t seem to have any core principles. It makes it impossible for his supporters to get excited about him because you can’t fall in love with a weathervane. Even worse, since politicians tend to be such liars anyway and you know Romney has no firm beliefs, it’s very easy for everyone to assume the worst. Democrats will feel that Romney will be a right wing death-beast. Republicans will think that Romney will screw them over. Independents won’t know what to believe, which will make the hundreds of millions that Obama will spend on attack ads particularly effective. Ronald Reagan famously said the GOP needed “a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors.” That’s particularly relevant when it comes to Mitt Romney who has proven to be a pasty grey pile of formless mush.

Now this is a person on the Right that sees what most everybody else sees but is afraid to say on the air…….I agree with him on the reasons that Mitt will NOT be elected in 2012……if you would like bookmark this and check out the campaign against Romney….My guess is that we will see all these negatives highlighted…..continuously.

10 thoughts on “But Can He win?

  1. Lobotero,

    It’s nearly a foregone conclusion that Romney will be the nominee. And, you know, I just don’t like the man. Don’t wanna vote for him.

    But if Obama let’s that American kid in Iranian custody die, he can go to hell. I have always believed in doing the right thing, no matter how small, regardless of the consequences. And so if flooding the Strait of Hormuz with the seventh fleet, or sending special ops into rescue the kid, carries a lot of consequences, then so be it. And I won’t hear no shoddy rationalizations about cost/benefit either. If the kid dies, I vote Romney, period.

    1. Terrance, in my years working for the government in many incidents around the world….there may be more to this story than we know….I do not believe that the kid will die…remember those “hikers” and I use the term lightly,they also were facing the death penalty…..and if Mitt gets his way a lot more Americans will die in the future if he is elected…..the American Exceptionalism” thingy…I understand your anger……

      1. Terrance, I am not saying that the guy is guilty and should die…..just that there may be more to this than meets the eye….and I think the death penalty thingy was for PR mire than a real ruling….if they are serious they will tie him to the death of the scientist…just saying…
        I find it a bit amazinbg that the Right seems to be a bigger enemy than Obama…

  2. The one thing Obama loses this year that he had in ’08 was that general enthusiasm to draw in Independents. Not that Mitt will automatically capture them but there is no OBama mystery and hope anymore. To me he is the lesser of two evils but some Independents could wound up sitting home for the election which is more likely to hurt rather than help the President

    1. It will be interesting to see the Dem attacks……I think that Mitt will be trashed unmercifully and he, being a hollow shell of a person, will not be able to handle the attacks….he will lose….

    1. Thanx Hansi……all the hype is about Repubs not about the rest of the world and if the GOP does not like him he will fail miserably or the voters are bigger idiots than I give them credit….

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