2020 Vote: Biden Wins!

Most people are hoping that is the headline as soon as the count can be verified.

Pundits are throwing the polls at the public which , according to them, looks as if Biden has a sizeable lead in the polls.  (a forecast not a prediction)

According to the metrics at fivethirtyeight.com Biden has a good chance of winning…..

a flurry of national polls as we inch closer to the conventions, but so far, the numbers haven’t moved much. Joe Biden still has a comfortable lead over President Trump in our national polling average and is favored to win the election in our forecast. But remember, Trump still has a meaningful chance of winning — even though the polls are stable now, that doesn’t mean they will stay that way.

  • Another big point of uncertainty? How voting is going to work. Due to the pandemic, many states have already changed their election laws to make voting absentee easier, but the influx of ballots cast by mail risks overwhelming the U.S. Postal Service. In fact, the USPS has already told the state of Pennsylvania that some mail-in ballots might not be delivered to voters on time because “the state’s deadlines are too tight.” Troublingly, Trump has signaled he might not be cooperative in getting the USPS additional funding to help with these problems.
  • We’re tracking all this and more with our new state-by-state guide to voting in the general election. Find out how to vote — by mail or in person if you prefer — plus the key deadlines. We’re keeping it up to date with all the latest changes to election laws that have arisen because of the pandemic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

But a sound thrashing by Biden over Trump is a bit too optimistic….

This file has been corrected to reflect that 40,000 simulations were run.) Stats guru Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight.com team ran 40,000 simulations of the November election and concluded that Joe Biden has a 71% chance of defeating President Trump. This is clearly good news for Biden: “Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in,” writes Silver. But he also thinks that widespread predictions of a Biden romp are misguided. He reminds readers that his site’s final forecast in 2016 also had Trump with an identical 29% chance of victory. “So if you’re not taking a 29% chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”

Silver runs down the reasons that it’s too early to write off Trump, and one is the “uncertainty index” built into the models. This year, the coronavirus is a big factor in that. A vaccine or a dramatic decline in cases or deaths before November could give Trump a boost. Another issue: Silver expects the race to tighten in the coming months, and it appears that Trump would have an advantage over Biden in the Electoral College in a close race. Of course, uncertainty cuts both ways—it’s possible Biden could widen his lead between now and Election Day. Silver’s bottom line: Biden is in a good position with a “robust” lead, but there’s too much time left to be making assertive predictions about a victory in November.

Most of the info says that Trump could get 40-47% of the vote….now think about that for a moment.

Will we have a repeat of 2016?

My thought is that it is very possible…..

The moral of this story is…DO NOT TRUST POLLS!

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Some Election Predictions

Don’t worry I am not going to offer some world ending prediction….no this is the prediction for the coming election…..

85 days and counting……

Will it be Biden (hopefully) or will it be Trump (a sad situation) that will win the hearts and minds of the American public?

First this is NOT my prediction…I gave up being a seer to write a blog……

It’s possible we may not know the results of the presidential race for weeks after Nov. 3 … or this very moment, if you want to believe Allan Lichtman’s prediction. And you’d have good reason to. The New York Times calls him “the Nostradamus of presidential elections”—he’s called them correctly for four decades—and in a video op-ed for the paper, he explains why Joe Biden is going to take it. Lichtman took 120 years of US elections, from 1860 to 1980, and, along with a Russian earthquake expert, developed what he has dubbed “The Keys to the White House.” He explains: “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.”

The way his 13 keys work is that each one is answered true or false. “True” indicates the White House party will retain power. Six or more false answers equal a political earthquake. Some of the keys are pretty basic political factors: Key No. 2, for instance: “There is no primary contest for the White House party.” True. Others are economic, like Key No. 6: “Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms.” False. Others are societal, like No. 8: “There is no social unrest during the term.” False. Others are geopolitical, as with No. 10: “The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad.” True “so far,” per Lichtman. And then there’s the nature of the candidates. No. 13: “The challenger is uncharismatic.” True, says Lichtman of Biden. His tally? Seven falses, meaning Biden has it—at least, according to the Keys.

There is more predictions about 2020 election…..

Of all the predictions about how Election 2020 might unfold, one seems safest of all: The night of November 3 is going to be a mess. Media writer Ben Smith of the New York Times writes that this year’s election night is going to be far different than any in modern history because of the extra time needed to count mail-in ballots or votes otherwise not cast in traditional Election Day fashion. After interviewing TV election analysts, execs, and hosts, he found that some are shrugging off the problem. But “I was alarmed by the near panic among some of the people paying the closest attention—the analysts and producers trying, and often failing, to get answers from state election officials about how and when they will count the ballots and report results.” The gist of his analysis is that Americans are not properly prepared for how this is going to play out.

“I don’t think it’s penetrated enough in the average viewer’s mind that there’s not going to be an election night,” says Brandon Finnigan of Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to media outlets. “The usual razzmatazz of a panel sitting around discussing election results—that’s dead.” There’s nothing inherently wrong with taking days or weeks to count ballots, writes Smith, but the format TV networks use to deliver results runs counter to that process. Drawing on advice from political scientists, Smith suggests the media should embark on an extensive educational campaign to start schooling people on the need for patience. Ditching traditional election-night features such as “percent of precincts reporting” might help, too, given that mail-in ballots might still be sitting in warehouses. Read the full analysis.

Any thoughts you would like to share?

I am listening!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Repent–The End Is Near

Most of us remember the date the world was suppose to end, 21 December 2012, and on the morning of 22 December and we were still here….so that prediction was about as accurate as all those before it that have predicted the end of this sinful world.

Now some are saying the texts by the Maya were misread….and now we have a new date….

The reading of the Mayan calendar was wrong, according to a conspiracy theory on Twitter, and while the world didn’t end on Dec. 21, 2012, as originally prophesied by calendar readers, Mayan doomsday is sometime this week or next.

“Following the Julian Calendar, we are technically in 2012 … The number of days lost in a year due to the shift into Gregorian Calendar is 11 days … For 268 years using the Gregorian Calendar (1752-2020) times 11 days = 2,948 days. 2,948 days / 365 days (per year) = 8 years,” scientist Paolo Tagaloguin tweeted last week, according to the Sun. The series of tweets has since been deleted.

If Tagaloguin is correct, adding up all the missed days, then the Mayan doomsday date is … this week.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/13/reading-of-mayan-calendar-suggests-end-of-the-world-is-next-week/

I will be looking for my followers come Monday, 22 June 2020…..let me know if you made it.

Not to worry even if our civilization ends this weekend there are 36 more out there in space…..

According to a new study in The Astrophysical Journal, there could be dozens of intelligent alien civilizations hiding in our galaxy, all capable of communicating.

“There should be at least a few dozen active civilizations in our Galaxy under the assumption that it takes 5 billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth,” Christopher Conselice, Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Nottingham and lead author of the study, said in a statement.

https://futurism.com/research-could-be-36-alien-civilizations-galaxy

Image

Our doomed society has seen a decrease in students wanting to study history……but why?

In all those institutions, the number of history faculty increased, while the total number of students they taught fell.

I believe that the main reason for the decline in history is that students don’t care for the product the faculty is offering. Most history courses are now too specialized and often politically slanted to interest them.

The roots of what has happened to history go back to the 1960s, when the Vietnam War convinced a critical mass of college students that they could safely ignore whatever the older generation said. That war was indeed a catastrophe, but that single strategic mistake did not, as so many of my contemporaries thought, discredit the entire government, society, and intellectual tradition within which it took place.

Why Students Have Turned Away from History

Finally, I now have been told that racism no longer exist in the United States…..according to Trump’s economic adviser……

During an interview on CNBC, Kudlow said that Obama’s two successful presidential campaigns are part of the reason why he doesn’t believe in “systemic racism.”

“President Obama, the first black president, was elected twice, and he got 79 million white votes,” he said. “Therefore, I find it hard to understand something called systemic racism.”

Larry Kudlow’s claim that white people voting for Obama is evidence that systemic racism isn’t real is laughable. It’s also completely on-brand for him and the administration for which he works.

Larry Kudlow Declares Racism Extinct Because Some White People Voted For Barack Obama

How many idiotic things can be said/done in a weeks time?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Climate Change For 2020

Closing Thought–02Jan20

There are a lot of things that will change in 2020….but the one thing that will stay constant is that the climate is changing and not for the better….but let’s look at a few predictions for 2020….

When it comes to climate change, did we accurately predict in 2000 what would be happening now? 

“What the models correctly told us 20 years ago is that if we continued to add fossil fuels at an increasing rate to the atmosphere, we’d see an increasing range of consequences, including a decline in Arctic sea ice, a rise in sea levels and shifts in precipitation patterns,” Weather Underground meteorologist Robert Henson told USA TODAY.

Overall, we’re running quite close to the projections made in 2000 for carbon dioxide concentration, global temperature and sea level, Henson said.

Here’s a look at climate change indicators for 2020:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/24/climate-change-predictions-2020-carbon-dioxide-weather-disasters/2622212001/

Not to worry these predictions will be disputed/

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

2020–Doom And Gloom

We have an election quickly coming to the horizon and we have those wise sages that are predicting all sorts of ‘doom and gloom’…..like Trump will be re-elected or the Dems will implode and go down as the worse defeat in history, or ….well I am sure you have heard some of the predictions….believe them or not…..it will be a historic election for so many reasons….too many to write about and besides this post is about the possibility of the parties imploded during this election…..or after….

I have read that the Democratic Party will not survive and I have also read that the GOP may not survive……which is it?

First the Dems……

Long, long ago, on Monday, when a Hillary Clinton victory seemed likely, the forecast for the Democratic Party looked grim. The party was confident that its aging candidate, the spouse of another former Democratic president, could win, and it was optimistic about winning control of the Senate. Clinton might serve (to borrow a phrase) as a bridge to the 2010s, but the next two elections would be much tougher: Democrats would be defending a lot of difficult Senate seats in 2018, and simple structural forces made it unlikely a President Clinton could hold the White House for two terms. Who would lead the party then?

Instead, the nightmare has arrived early. All of those dangers still beset the party, but now without the bridge of a Clinton presidency to ease the blow. Donald Trump will enter the White House with a Republican Senate and a Republican House. Because President Obama was unable to get the Senate to vote on his appointee for an open Supreme Court seat, Trump will immediately have the chance to appoint a ninth member to the Court, breaking a 4-4 tie. At the state level, Republicans now control at least 34 governorships, the most since 1922, and ran up their advantage in state legislatures.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/can-the-democratic-party-survive/507116/

More on the opinion that the Dems may not survive 2020…….

The last political party to dissolve was about 163 years ago when the Whig’s morphed into the newly formed Republican Party who unsuccessfully ran John C. Fremont in the 3 way contest of 1856.

It is quite possible that voters are now seeing the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party by virtue of internal dissatisfaction and divisiveness.

Can such a fractured party come together to mount a serious challenge to a flawed but productive Republican president?

https://patch.com/georgia/canton-ga/will-democrat-party-survive

Will they or won’t they?

Not to worry….there are predictions that the GOP could face problems because of this election…..especially since the party has been whittled down of basically old white guys and they are dying….

Outgoing Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), the only black Republican in the House, warned in a new interview that the GOP needs to adapt and start looking like the rest of America or “there won’t be a Republican Party in this country.”

In an interview with Axios that aired Sunday, Hurd said that “we know where the trends are going” regarding demographics in America and that Republicans “know what we need to do.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/468782-gop-lawmaker-if-the-party-doesnt-adapt-to-changing-demographics-there-wont-be

Or maybe this will interest you…..

The Republican Party and American democracy are having a bit of a falling out.

A half-century ago, conservatives claimed to speak for a silent majority of the electorate; now they brag about representing the (even quieter) majority of American dirt and grass. The dispersion of Republican voters across the U.S. landmass can still paint electoral maps red, but the GOP’s standard-bearer has lost the popular vote in six of the past seven presidential elections. Last year, with voter turnout historically high, the party’s House candidates lost the nationwide vote by 8.6 percent. As of 2018, there were 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans on America’s voting rolls.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/2020-republicans-doomed.html

These parties will survive but in what shape?

Thoughts?

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

The Future Awaits….But It’s Flat!

It is Sunday and I could be doing some futuristic clap trap about how the world will look in the future if we do not change our ‘evil’ ways……(whatever the means)…….

Instead I found a guy who has visited the future as far ahead as the year 2300 and returned to let us know just what to expect in our future…

His name is Gerard Gardner…..and hear is his tale……

Gardner – if that is (it isn’t) his real name – claims to be an English governmental employee taken onto a secret programme in 1988.

Of the project to send him to the future, he said: “If they could do this, they would have great power over our society, and they knew they must perfect this technology before any other country does.”

Well, that makes total sense.

He went on to say that the floating cities are useful because it helps them to move around and they cause less pollution

https://www.ladbible.com/news/weird-time-traveller-sheds-light-on-what-life-is-like-in-2300-20190918

Please tell me what you think of this guy.

Is he looking for his 15 minutes of fame?

That is my guess……and that is me being polite….I put him in the same category as those die hard ancient alien people……

And then there are the “flat earthers”……

But, unfortunately, the Earth is not flat.

And yet, contrary to all scientific evidence, there are people who believe the Earth is flat. They even have their own club, the Flat Earth Society. And its support is growing and counts NBA stars and reality show celebrities among its followers.

In the 1990s, the Flat Earth Society was bankrupt and all but dead. Then the internet happened, and it made people want to believe in a flat Earth again.

View this collection on Medium.com

All I can say about social media is…..that is how lies get started.

My small attempt at FYI….hope I have helped my readers in some small way……

Stay tuned more to come….

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

AI Is Coming For Your Job

Saturday cooler temps and a MoMo that is ready to go outside and chase something…matter not what….

Many people have been showing how AI will effect our society in the future……the one that most concerns me is the loss of jobs….

To begin with the prediction that half of all jobs will to lost in the future….

Almost half of all current jobs will become obsolete in just 15 years, according to one of China’s leading experts in artificial intelligence (AI).

Kai-Fu Lee, a writer, venture capitalist and technology executive who has over 30 years’ experience in AI, claims the world of employment is facing a crisis. He’ll appear on CBS 60 Minutes on Sunday to spread the word and warn those most at risk so they can start retraining for the new world. Lee also warns that education will need to adapt to prepare younger generations for the new landscape.

AI may be the future, but it can’t do everything, claims Lee, who says certain professions are safe from the revolution. Especially those that involve empathy or human to human interaction like therapists, nurses, teachers or doctors. Innovative and creative professions are also safe because AI generally struggles to do the work of scientists or to deal with the unknown.

https://www.rt.com/news/448524-ai-jobs-future-robot/

That is worldwide…but what will the predicted impact of AI will have on US jobs?

Robots aren’t replacing everyone, but a quarter of U.S. jobs will be severely disrupted as artificial intelligence accelerates the automation of existing work, according to a new Brookings Institution report.

The report, published Thursday, says roughly 36 million Americans hold jobs with “high exposure” to automation — meaning at least 70 percent of their tasks could soon be performed by machines using current technology. Among those most likely to be affected are cooks, waiters and others in food services; short-haul truck drivers; and clerical office workers.

“That population is going to need to upskill, reskill or change jobs fast,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings and lead author of the report.

Muro said the timeline for the changes could be “a few years or it could be two decades.” But it’s likely that automation will happen more swiftly during the next economic downturn. Businesses are typically eager to implement cost-cutting technology as they lay off workers.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-is-set-to-replace-36-million-us-workers-2019-01-24

30 million jobs….that is about 30 times as bad as the government shutdown has become.

Sorry to be a downer on this weekend but everyone needs to plan for the possibility of this loss.

Time for me to try and get some pruning of the fruit trees in….that will give MoMo something to play with…..

What Did Asimov Say?

2019 is just a day away……and pundits are all over the tube predicting the next 6 to 12 months…..but 35 years ago SciFi writer Issac Asimov predicted year 2019…..

lf we look into the world as it may be at the end of another generation, let’s say 2019 — that’s 35 years from now, the same number of years since 1949 when George Orwell’s 1984 was first published — three considerations must dominate our thoughts:

1. Nuclear war. 2. Computerization. 3. Space utilization.

If the United States and the Soviet Union flail away at each other at any time between now and 2019, there is absolutely no use to discussing what life will be like in that year. Too few of us, or of our children and grand· children, will be alive then for there to be any point in describing the precise condition of global misery at that time.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html

Does anyone want to look that far into the future?  If so then let the predictions fly.

Another short posting day….everyone please be well, be safe…..chuq

Saturday–27Oct18

Cooler weather for awhile…..garden is slowly showing the signs of approaching winter….Mo is ripping around the back yard and I am enjoying my beer….all in all a good day….this was the planter I was going to use for my radishes…..

I remember years ago when the Large Hadron Collider was in the process of being turned on and all the doom and gloom coming from some quarters.

We were told that once it was up and functioning then a massive black hole would be created and the destruction of our planet would be eminent….remember all those warnings?

Guess what.  The predictions have returned!

Martin Rees, a well-respected British cosmologist, has a warning about particle accelerators. There is a small, but very real possibility of disaster. Rees claims Earth could be crushed to the size of a soccer field by particle accelerators.

The Large Hadron Collider, which is a particle accelerator, shoots particles at incredibly high speeds, smashes them together, and scientists observe the fallout. According toScience Alert, these high-speed collisions have helped us discover a lot of new particles, but according to Rees, these discoveries come with several risks to humanity. In a new book, called On The Future: Prospects for Humanity, he gives some pretty dire possible outcomes of this type of advancement in science.

Maybe a black hole could form, and then suck in everything around it,” he writes, as Sarah Knapton reported over at the Telegraph.

“The second scary possibility is that the quarks would reassemble themselves into compressed objects called strangelets. That in itself would be harmless. However, under some hypotheses, a strangelet could, by contagion, convert anything else it encounters into a new form of matter, transforming the entire earth in a hyperdense sphere about one hundred meters across.”

 That’s about the length of one soccer field or 330 feet.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-02/renowned-cosmologist-warns-earth-could-be-crushed-particle-accelerator

Should we worry?

Time to sit and think……

Sunday–16Sep18

Several years ago there was a show on SyFy about the coming end of days….I believe the show was called “Dig”….the location was modern day Israel……there seems to be something about the birth of a red calf….it is magical and telling.

Well life does imitate art…..

An Israeli Jewish fundamentalist group that received donations from the country’s defence minister has said that an end of times prophecy ushering Armageddon has been fulfilled following the birth of a “flawless” red heifer.

The Temple Institute, which promotes the construction of a third temple on the ruins of Al-Aqsa Mosque, has announced the birth of the first red calf in Israel for 2,000 year. They believe that a biblical prophecy predicting the end of days has come true. The temple institute in Jerusalem announced the calf’s birth, saying it would undergo extensive examinations to determine if it is red all over.

The Jewish fundamentalist group believes that if the female baby calf is found to be “blemish free” and completely red, the institute will declare that the calf will bring the promise of reinstating biblical purity to the world.

Not to worry there have been countless predictions of the “End of Days” and we are still here….so this one is just FYI

Go now and enjoy your day….chuq