Most people are hoping that is the headline as soon as the count can be verified.
Pundits are throwing the polls at the public which , according to them, looks as if Biden has a sizeable lead in the polls. (a forecast not a prediction)
According to the metrics at fivethirtyeight.com Biden has a good chance of winning…..
a flurry of national polls as we inch closer to the conventions, but so far, the numbers haven’t moved much. Joe Biden still has a comfortable lead over President Trump in our national polling average and is favored to win the election in our forecast. But remember, Trump still has a meaningful chance of winning — even though the polls are stable now, that doesn’t mean they will stay that way.
- Another big point of uncertainty? How voting is going to work. Due to the pandemic, many states have already changed their election laws to make voting absentee easier, but the influx of ballots cast by mail risks overwhelming the U.S. Postal Service. In fact, the USPS has already told the state of Pennsylvania that some mail-in ballots might not be delivered to voters on time because “the state’s deadlines are too tight.” Troublingly, Trump has signaled he might not be cooperative in getting the USPS additional funding to help with these problems.
- We’re tracking all this and more with our new state-by-state guide to voting in the general election. Find out how to vote — by mail or in person if you prefer — plus the key deadlines. We’re keeping it up to date with all the latest changes to election laws that have arisen because of the pandemic.
But a sound thrashing by Biden over Trump is a bit too optimistic….
This file has been corrected to reflect that 40,000 simulations were run.) Stats guru Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight.com team ran 40,000 simulations of the November election and concluded that Joe Biden has a 71% chance of defeating President Trump. This is clearly good news for Biden: “Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in,” writes Silver. But he also thinks that widespread predictions of a Biden romp are misguided. He reminds readers that his site’s final forecast in 2016 also had Trump with an identical 29% chance of victory. “So if you’re not taking a 29% chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”
Silver runs down the reasons that it’s too early to write off Trump, and one is the “uncertainty index” built into the models. This year, the coronavirus is a big factor in that. A vaccine or a dramatic decline in cases or deaths before November could give Trump a boost. Another issue: Silver expects the race to tighten in the coming months, and it appears that Trump would have an advantage over Biden in the Electoral College in a close race. Of course, uncertainty cuts both ways—it’s possible Biden could widen his lead between now and Election Day. Silver’s bottom line: Biden is in a good position with a “robust” lead, but there’s too much time left to be making assertive predictions about a victory in November.
Most of the info says that Trump could get 40-47% of the vote….now think about that for a moment.
Will we have a repeat of 2016?
My thought is that it is very possible…..
The moral of this story is…DO NOT TRUST POLLS!
I Read, I write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”