2020 Vote: Biden Wins!

Most people are hoping that is the headline as soon as the count can be verified.

Pundits are throwing the polls at the public which , according to them, looks as if Biden has a sizeable lead in the polls.  (a forecast not a prediction)

According to the metrics at fivethirtyeight.com Biden has a good chance of winning…..

a flurry of national polls as we inch closer to the conventions, but so far, the numbers haven’t moved much. Joe Biden still has a comfortable lead over President Trump in our national polling average and is favored to win the election in our forecast. But remember, Trump still has a meaningful chance of winning — even though the polls are stable now, that doesn’t mean they will stay that way.

  • Another big point of uncertainty? How voting is going to work. Due to the pandemic, many states have already changed their election laws to make voting absentee easier, but the influx of ballots cast by mail risks overwhelming the U.S. Postal Service. In fact, the USPS has already told the state of Pennsylvania that some mail-in ballots might not be delivered to voters on time because “the state’s deadlines are too tight.” Troublingly, Trump has signaled he might not be cooperative in getting the USPS additional funding to help with these problems.
  • We’re tracking all this and more with our new state-by-state guide to voting in the general election. Find out how to vote — by mail or in person if you prefer — plus the key deadlines. We’re keeping it up to date with all the latest changes to election laws that have arisen because of the pandemic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

But a sound thrashing by Biden over Trump is a bit too optimistic….

This file has been corrected to reflect that 40,000 simulations were run.) Stats guru Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight.com team ran 40,000 simulations of the November election and concluded that Joe Biden has a 71% chance of defeating President Trump. This is clearly good news for Biden: “Having a 70-ish percent chance of beating an incumbent in early August before any conventions or debates is far better than the position that most challengers find themselves in,” writes Silver. But he also thinks that widespread predictions of a Biden romp are misguided. He reminds readers that his site’s final forecast in 2016 also had Trump with an identical 29% chance of victory. “So if you’re not taking a 29% chance as a serious possibility, I’m not sure there’s much we can say at this point, although there’s a Zoom poker game that I’d be happy to invite you to.”

Silver runs down the reasons that it’s too early to write off Trump, and one is the “uncertainty index” built into the models. This year, the coronavirus is a big factor in that. A vaccine or a dramatic decline in cases or deaths before November could give Trump a boost. Another issue: Silver expects the race to tighten in the coming months, and it appears that Trump would have an advantage over Biden in the Electoral College in a close race. Of course, uncertainty cuts both ways—it’s possible Biden could widen his lead between now and Election Day. Silver’s bottom line: Biden is in a good position with a “robust” lead, but there’s too much time left to be making assertive predictions about a victory in November.

Most of the info says that Trump could get 40-47% of the vote….now think about that for a moment.

Will we have a repeat of 2016?

My thought is that it is very possible…..

The moral of this story is…DO NOT TRUST POLLS!

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

8 thoughts on “2020 Vote: Biden Wins!

    1. He is trying to accomplish the same thing as 2016….he is focusing on the Electoral College……and he could very well pull it off. chuq

  1. I’m trying to be positive as I can, but I admit I’m very worried and wary. I’ve had to go to town for stuff a lot the past week and I’m seeing EVEN MORE Dump re-election flags up than ever before. And not just those, either. Every mile or half mile (I live out county so it takes 10 minutes to get to town), there’s a Dump flag, but also perhaps a Half-Texas and Half-Stars and Bars flag (WTF?!), a half-American and half-Israeli flag and the police support flag… you get the idea. Probably every fifth property on the main farm road leading to town has a Dump/Puss re-election sign on their fence or by their mailboxes, something.

    I have not seen a single Biden sign anywhere. To me, this all feels like intimidation of a sort. It’s a bit late to get a Biden yard sign, especially the way postal works these days, but part of me wonders what would happen if I put one up. None of my immediate neighbors have any signage up, it’s mainly out on the main road. And the sudden surge of these flags makes me wonder more and more what’s gonna happen on election day.

    I’ll freaking go, no matter what, but I just can’t believe the sheer amount of people who bought those flags and have been hanging them up. What really pisses me off is there’s one guy down the road that has a Dump flag, and the stars and bars high on a pole. But the American flag is all shredded and on a short pole hanging off a carport, easily at half the height of the stars and bars. And that American flag has been in crap condition for months. I mean, I’m not a clutch-my-pearls-over-the-flag type, but something about that display–whether ignorant or intentional–just rubs me raw. I thought flag etiquette 101 said you don’t fly another flag higher than the American flag on the premises. Makes me wonder how many vets saw that flag and were ticked off, or shrugged it off because they’re Dump supporters, too, and just don’t care.

    I just don’t get all this, but I can only imagine it’s a major intimidation tactic around here. All those Dump flags, it just makes me sad and not want to leave the house. My middle finger gets twitchy every time I see them.

    1. In stead of polls maybe a count of signs would be better….there are no Biden signs in my neighborhood…..the flag thing…most Americans have NO idea…..I am worried as well…..looks like stupid may prevail in 2020 chuq

      1. I’m considering making my own sign and finding a way to weatherproof it. I’d love to have “Biden/Harris 2020: Make America Humane Again” (or Sane, fielder’s choice).
        Something like that. I think the vitriol and inhumanity by the most shrill Dump/Piss supporters just shocks me the most. What do they think is so great about frothing at the mouth hatred? Do they see that, or just shrug it off? I don’t know how someone can not see that.
        On the other hand, I’m about to get one of those Free Little Libraries to put in front of my yard, and the last thing I want to do is jeopardize that or give folks an excuse to vandalize it. I’m keeping that box non-political best I can (when I finally get the rest to set it up). But seeing that sign might make things difficult, especially since around here so few know what the Free Little Library program is.
        Though I admit, part of me is tempted to hang a sign off the bottom with the constipated bulldog’s face on it saying “Be smarter than Trump: read a book once in a while.” The temptation is just SO there right now…

      2. The internet has spoiled reading for a lot of people…..the people around here are vindictive so I try to make it seems as I am apolitical. chuq

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