Month: January 2016

2016…..Say It Isn’t So

I like to propose scenarios that would make good discussions…..

Let’s talk about the upcoming GOP convention.  I know….kinda early for that conversation…..but it is looking like it will be an epic convention…..why?

Easy…as of today our man Donald appears to be unstoppable……

One clear theme seems to be emerging after Thursday night’s debate: Donald Trump is looking stronger than ever:

  • Sure, Jeb Bush may have challenged Trump’s idea to ban Muslims during Thursday’s debate, but he did so almost as a “supplicant,” meekly asking Trump to reconsider, writes Jonathan Chait at New York. It’s emblematic of something larger: “Those of us who believed Republican elites would kill Trump’s candidacy out of self-preservation have to face the increasingly plausible prospect that, for whatever reason, they may lay down their arms before a shot has been fired.”
  • “That was the question left hanging at the conclusion: Have they all missed their chance to take down Trump?” writes Cathleen Decker at the Los Angeles Times.
  • “What was unthinkable a few months ago no longer is,” writes Dan Balz at the Washington Post. “Trump’s durability in national polls and his standing in the early states have forced GOP leaders—and all his rivals—to confront the possibility that the New York billionaire and reality TV star could end up leading the party into the fall campaign against the Democrats.”
  • Ted Cruz may have gotten the better of his exchange with Trump over Cruz’s eligibility, but the very fact that Cruz was answering the question at all is a testament to how thoroughly Trump has dictated this primary season, writes Rick Klein at ABC News. He may yet lose, but the debate “revealed the extent to which Trump has already won.”
  • “All in all, it was a very good evening for Trump. This late in the game, a single debate is unlikely to drastically change the existing dynamics,” writes Josh Voorhees at Slate. “That, of course, will be just fine with Trump.”

I remember the beginning of the 2016 process…..when was that?  Has it been that long?  Sorry.  In the beginning the media was slobbering all over JEB!….they gave a nod to Rubio and Paul…..but they really felt that it would be a easy ride for the Bush family……they were dead wrong….and now the GOP is sitting there worried that they will have another hung convention…..

Republican strategists who had spoken of a smooth nomination process just a few months ago are now braced for a battle royal at the Quicken Loans Arena. Insiders tell the Washington Post that GOP bigwigs gathered Monday and discussed the possibility of a brokered convention in Cleveland in July. The party hasn’t entered a convention without a clear nominee since 1976, when Gerald Ford narrowly defeated conservative insurgent Ronald Reagan on the first ballot. The Post’s sources say the GOP leaders discussed strategies in case there is no clear nominee this time around and no winner on the first ballot, allowing delegates to shift allegiances in what Reuters reports would be the first brokered GOP convention since Thomas Dewey was nominated in 1948.

A source tells the Post that some GOP strategists argued for a strategy to make sure there was a clear alternative to Donald Trump in the event of a brokered convention, though another official present at the meeting tells Reuters that Trump wasn’t the focus of the discussion. “It was more logistical in nature, not strategic,” he says. “It was more like ‘are you planning for a hurricane?'” A former Mitt Romney adviser agrees that with the field still crowded, talk of a brokered convention goes beyond Trump. “What you’re seeing is the party bracing for a potential Hunger Games scenario where you have a different person win each of the first four primaries and they all have the resources to slug it out until the convention,” he tells the Post.

A contested nomination?  Damn….the media would be jerking off…..they have not had an interesting convention in 40+ years……

Okay people…..would a contested nomination be a good thing…..or just more political games at the expense of the voter?

What say you?

Pentagon’s ‘Successes’ Look More Like Failures

At least that is the way it appears to me……

Yes I know I have been really hard on the Obama admin and their policies concerning conflicts…..especially in the Middle East.

We have been told that all is well and the policies are on target for success….the problem is that the successes keep changing almost on a daily basis…..with every action and then counter-action we, the public, is give a new story…..

As an analyst when I was employed by the government we worked on scenarios to come up with a course of action to counter whatever ploy the “enemy” took……the problem is, as I see it, the analysts these days were trying to use the techniques that was used in the Cold War days…..there is one slight problem with that plan…….they seem to never consider an asymmetrical war instead of a conventional one……this, in my opinion, is why the Pentagon has to issue these glowing reports of success and why it must constantly change….

The ignorance of the Pentagon has proven that these old farts are not capable of dealing with war in the 21st century….their answers are the answers of the middle 20th century…..massive firepower and overwhelm the enemy with troops….

The threat of war still looms behind the current geopolitical chess match, but what form will it take and who will be involved? More importantly, with the current shift towards asymmetry, who will prevail? Who can prevail?

The scenario is intensified by asymmetric war ideology, tactics and weapons, world shatter-belt zones of “permanent instability” are growing – and they are necessarily growing. Sometimes called “multi-polarity” and presented as the positive spin-off from economic globalization, and above all presented as consensual by the great powers (and would-be great powers), the loss of center and the growth of periphery is a stark fact of the coming world.

And a bigger problem is that many of the candidates still will not see the necessity of change the mindset……you see an asymmetrical war is the way of the future….the days of large units storming the beaches is over……the days of brawn over brains is over……time for new blood and new ideas in the Pentagon…..

But do not take my word for it…….

The only thing the US military has succeeded at is believing its own propaganda.

Source: Why Do All of the Pentagon’s ‘Successes’ in Iraq Look More Like Failures? | The Nation

But Why Bernie?

The candidates are approaching the starting line…..soon we will be off to the races…….

I have heard that question many many times……few have a good reason why Bernie is being so successful….after all he is a…..wait for it……socialist.  Actually that label is just dumb…all one has to do is look at Bernie’s track record and then tell me that you have NO idea who he is or what he stands for……..

But I have no illusions….Clinton supporters will pick apart Bernie’s platform piece by piece….but think about this…..they tried to crap all over Obama…..and her attacks fell on deaf ears….just as they are today…..

Hillary Clinton has questioned Bernie Sanders’ electability. She’s criticized his plans for health care, foreign policy and Wall Street. And she’s tagged him with flip-flopping on gun control.

None of it appears to be sticking, say some Democrats who have raised concerns that a months-long primary campaign could create lasting damage for their party.

While most believe Clinton will still capture the nomination, some say she is failing to respond effectively to Sanders, fueling both his primary rise and strengthening the Republican argument against her. Others say she got too late a start going after Sanders and is still not hitting him enough – eroding her lead in states that should be safe.

But I expect them to keep trying to defeat Bernie with misinformation….after all she is a Clinton and she excels at misinformation……plus Clinton seems to be using the same playbook she used against Obama…..her stumps are just echoes from ’08…….and we all know how that turned out…..don’t we?

But if you are still confused about Bernie then I offer this op-ed written by Jim Hightower…..

When I crossed paths with a Democratic Party campaign consultant in Austin last March, I suggested he come out to the local International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hall to hear Bernie Sanders, adding that the Vermont senator was pondering a run for the presidency. “You gotta be kiddin’ me,” the political pro snorted. “Bernie Sanders? Let me tell ya, his chances are slim and none, and Slim don’t live in Bernie’s precinct. First of all, no one south of Greenwich Village ever heard of him.

Source: Something Is Happening | Common Dreams | Breaking News & Views for the Progressive Community

Embedded image permalink

Populism has made a comeback…..it was all the rage back in the 1920’s…..and it has slowly found a place in American politics once again……and Bernie is leading the parade……

Source: The Populist Revolution: Bernie and Beyond – LA Progressive

Can you now…..”Feel The Bern”?

Nukes: The Clock Is Ticking

The news the other day was that the “Doomsday Clock” is still at 3 minutes to midnight……

Scientists behind a “Doomsday Clock” that measures the likelihood of a global cataclysm say the world is still under grave threat.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced on Tuesday that the minute hand on the metaphorical clock remained at three minutes to midnight.

The scientists behind the bulletin adjusted the clock from five minutes to midnight to three minutes to midnight last year, the closest to midnight it has been since 1983.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons. The clock was created two years later.

The decision to move or leave the clock alone is made by the bulletin’s science and security board, which includes physicists and environmental scientists from around the world, in consultation with the bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which includes at least 16 Nobel laureates.

Every person that is well read knows of this prediction….but this time it is a bit ironic……it seems that Obama worried about the situations around the world has decided to upgrade the nuke weapons of the US……

The most sobering of these voices belongs to William Perry, who during the 1970s and ’80s directed the development of air-launched nuclear cruise missiles and later became secretary of defense. Now Perry is campaigning against Obama’s plan to develop and buy 1,000 new missiles with adjustable nuclear capacity, 100 new long-range bombers, and a new fleet of nuclear-armed submarines. He warns that if the plan becomes real, disputes among nations will be “more likely to erupt in nuclear conflict than during the Cold War.”

Source: Beware of Obama’s nuclear weapons plan – The Boston Globe

Is Obama and his cronies just reacting to what the Russians are planning?  I wrote about this recently…..read for yourself……

Source: Nukes Make Headlines (Again) – In Saner Thought

Are the Russians trying to do to the US what Reagan did to the USSR?  That is massive spending on “national security”…..then ask where will the cuts be to fund this dash to the past?

Finding Ways To Protect

Note:  I am pretty sure that this will attract a bunch of comments…..It seems to whenever this subject is written about by me.  I am sure about here that those people that want to pass on misinformation and their brand of bigotry will see this post and make some statements that have nothing to do with the post but want to pass on their little small  minded ideas……

One of the silliness arguments these days is the one where all Muslims are blamed for the atrocities of ISIS/AQ simply because they are Muslims….I mean that is like blaming all hamburger sellers for the one bad one you got elsewhere….or blaming all Christians when a “believer” committed an unspeakable crime……like I said …..silly.

I have read many “conservative” blogs and site that are always de-railing Muslims for not speaking out against those that are committing the barbaric acts….well it is, as usual, disingenuous…..I have reported several cases where they are speaking out and in strong words but that will fall on deaf years…..for reason and one reason only….they WANT to hate……it will not help drive their agenda if they admit that steps are being tried…..

I will try again to point out a conference being called to find a solution to the violence…

Hundreds of Muslim scholars will meet in Morocco next week to reassert the rights of non-Muslims living among them as Christians and other religious minorities flee extremism across the Middle East for safety and freedom elsewhere.

Source: Muslim leaders plan summit on protecting non-Muslims in their midst – The Washington Post

Will this be a solution?  Of course not….but at least they are addressing the problem and maybe once the conversation is opened more people will join and a workable solution can be found…..conferences and meetings will not end the violence against people….but it is a start….who knows what will come out of this effort?

Then there is this film that shows just how the extremists pervert Islam…..

Source: New film shows how extremists pervert Islam | The National

Another good attempt to try and show the world that not all Muslims are the enemy…..again there will be very little about these efforts that will make any difference to the haters…..but ignoring the facts is a traditional way to show bigotry……

Then there is this post that I wrote recently……..

Source: The Islam No One Knows – In Saner Thought

Since NO bigoted troll will applaud these efforts…..I will take this opportunity to say…I wish them luck and thank them for their effort……

I regret that I must bounce…..my classroom awaits…..back later and we will continue…….peace….out

Failed States and states of failure

With all the situations around the world it is hard to keep up with the ever changing headlines……we are told about this state that is failing and why…..then we are told that this state is fighting for its life……and then we are bombarded with what can be called what it is….propaganda……

I found an interesting peace in France’s Le Monde…..if you are interested in international relations then this article is a very good piece indeed….

One of the charms of the future is its powerful element of unpredictability, its ability to ambush us in lovely ways or bite us unexpectedly in the ass. Most of the futures I imagined as a boy have, for instance, come up deeply short, or else I would now be flying my individual jet pack through the spired cityscape of New York and vacationing on the moon. And who, honestly, could have imagined the Internet, no less social media and cyberspace (unless, of course, you had read William (…)

Source: Failed States and states of failure – Le Monde diplomatique – English edition

I made copies of this article to give to my class on US foreign policy….well written and well thought out…..

What Happened To The Democrats?

2016 election day is sneaking closer with every tick of the clock…..soon the inevitable analysis of who will vote for who and why will be on the evening news…..maybe some will have an opinion on what happened to Democrats………….

I remember the election of 1980 (yep, I am that damn old) when the white working class abandoned the Democratic Party to vote for Reagan…..there has been a debate ever since in what happened to make this possible….until someone has an adequate reason for the desertion than can be little chance of a solution…..

Bubba Clinton did not bring them back in any numbers and Obama definitely did not make any in-roads in claiming the white working class voter for the Dems……

I have heard one explanation as …..anger.  But anger over what?

I have read many articles and posts about this phenom and have yet to see what I would call anything accurate……and then I read a piece by Robt Reich that made a few excellent points to help explain just what the Hell had happened……..(read on if you are interested)……

The former secretary of labor traces the rise of the Trump conservative, from George Wallace to Barack Obama

Source: Robert Reich: Democrats have abandoned the white working class – Salon.com

Who among the 2016 candidates do you see anyone reaching these voters?

Professor’s Class: Week 4 Class 1

Monday’s Class………

Gave out test of 10 questions and gave class 30 minutes to complete….

After a short break class began with me reminding them that this was the last week of class……I told the students because the class was progressing slowly thanx to the interests they had in discussing the different aspects of US Middle East foreign policy the class would not get in all the points I was hoping to make…told them that Monday of next week would be the final and that it would be a 50 question test, all inclusive to the material covered, it would consist of 20 multiple choice….10 true or false……15 fill in the blank and 5 essay (no minimum word count as long as the question was answered)…..

Today we cover the Reagan years……..

Contrary to popular belief it was Carter that got the hostages released not Reagan…….

Reagan Administration, 1981-1989

Whatever progress the Carter administration achieved on the Israeli-Palestinian front stalled over the next decade. As the Lebanese civil war raged, Israel invaded Lebanon for the second time, in June 1982, advancing as far as Beirut, the Lebanese capital city, before Reagan, who had condoned the invasion, intervene to demand a cease-fire.

American, Italian and French troops landed in Beirut that summer to mediate the exit of 6,000 PLO militants. The troops then withdrew, only to precipitately return following the assassination of Lebanese President-elect Bashir Gemeyel and the retaliatory massacre, by Israeli-backed Christian militias, of up to 3,000 Palestinians in the refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila, south of Beirut.

In April 1983, a truck bomb demolished the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, killing 63 people. On Oct. 23, 1983, simultaneous bombings killed 241 American soldiers and 57 French paratroopers in their Beirut barracks. American forces withdrew shortly after. The Reagan administration the faced several crises as the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite organization that became known as Hezbollah took several Americans hostage in Lebanon.

The 1986 Iran-Contra affair revealed that the Reagan Administration had secretly negotiated arms-for-hostages deals with Iran, discrediting Reagan’s claim that he would not negotiate with terrorists. It would be December 1991 before the last hostage, former Associated Press reporter Terry Anderson, would be released.

Throughout the 1980s, the Reagan Administration supported Israel’s expansion of Jewish settlements in occupied territories. The administration also supported Saddam Hussein in the eight-year Iran-Iraq War, which ended in 1988. The administration provided logistical and intelligence support, believing, wrongly, that Saddam could destabilize the Iranian regime and defeat the Islamic Revolution.

Basically Reagan did little to improve the US situation in the Middle East……

Handout…….

Source: Ronald Reagan’s surprising legacy in the Middle East

Short break…….

The George H.W. Bush years

Bush1 continued the policies of Reagan when it came to Israel/Palestine….but he will be forever known as the president that kicked Saddam’s butt in the first Gulf War….keep in mind Saddam did not surrender…..the USA coalition and Iraq agreed to a ceasefire which ended the conflict….

George H.W. Bush Administration, 1989-1993.

After benefiting from a decade of support from the United States and receiving conflicting signals immediately before the invasion of Kuwait, Saddam Hussein invaded the small country to his southeast on Aug. 2, 1990. President Bush launched Operation Desert Shield, immediately deploying U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia to defend against a possible invasion by Iraq.

Desert Shield became Operation Desert Storm when Bush shifted strategy – from defending Saudi Arabia to repelling Iraq from Kuwait, ostensibly because Hussein might, Bush claimed, be developing nuclear weapons. A coalition of 30 nations joined American forces in a military operation that numbered more than half a million troops.

An additional 18 countries supplied economic and humanitarian aid.

After a 38-day air campaign and a 100-hour ground war, Kuwait was liberated. Bush stopped the assault short of an invasion of Iraq, fearing what Dick Cheney, his defense secretary, would call a “quagmire.” Bush established instead “no-fly zones” in the south and north of the country, but those didn’t keep Hussein from massacring Shiites following an attempted revolt in the south — which Bush had encouraged — and Kurds in the north.

In Israel and the Palestinian territories, Bush was largely ineffective and uninvolved as the first Palestinian intifada, or uprising, roiled on for four years.

In the last year of his presidency, Bush launched a military operation in Somalia in conjunction with a humanitarian operation by the United Nations.

Operation Restore Hope, involving 25,000 U.S. troops, was designed to help stem the spread of famine caused by the Somali civil war.

The operation had limited success. A 1993 attempt to catch Mohamed Farah Aidid, leader of a brutal Somali militia, ended in disaster, with 18 American soldiers and up to 1,500 Somali militias and civilians killed.

Aidid wasn’t caught.

Among the architects of the attacks on Americans in Somalia: a Saudi exile then living in the Sudan, largely unknown in the United States: Osama bin Laden.

Handout…….

Source: George W. Bush on Foreign Policy

Source: The George H.W. Bush Administration | The Iran Primer

Class discussion…..I anticipated that there would be interest on what I said about the end of the conflict….I passed out a handout that I thought would help in the discussion…..

Source: The Infamous Vehicle Graveyard of Iraq’s Highway of Death | Urban Ghosts

The Iraqi army was in retreat from Kuwait along Highway 80 and the coalition forces attacked and attacked…wiping out everything that moved…..once the pics of the carnage was released Bush could see a PR nightmare in the making so he immediately declared a ceasefire and the ops ceased……

Class discussion………

This concludes my writing day…..hope to see everyone tomorrow….have a day and be happy…..chuq

ISIS: We Have A New Plan (Again)

I have been criticizing the Obama admin for their lack of  workable solution to the conflicts we are now fighting…..the problem as I see it it is that the “planner4s” have this “old school” military mind that cannot deal with the wars of the 21st century…..asymmetrical wars…..

As always the US has a new plan, much like the old plan, to find the step that will assure of a victory……so far these plans look more like stumbles than steps…..

Below is an op-ed I wrote for my friends over at Ace News Room….a very good site for those newshounds that want to know what is happening beyond the crap fed to them by their media sources……

Source: ISIS: We Have A New Plan (Again)

Comments are greatly appreciated…..please let your thoughts be known………

2016–National Security

One of the most talked about issues in this election is national security…….if you are on the wire on which “front runner” to vote for then maybe this will help……if you are what some call an “independent” (which is a disingenuous claim…there are NO independents but maybe undecided….but the claim is a false flag)…….

If you are concerned about national security then this may help in your selection…..