College of Political Knowledge
Subject: Democracy/Political Theory/
Meanwhile back in the Sands of the Middle East……..
For a couple of months now protests have been held all across the Middle East….and some, even Pres. Obama, have said that it appears democracy is being born in the region….at least the beginnings of democracy….but is this a true observation?
What was it that your grandma use to say…”Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched”……
My personal opinion is ….NO! First of all, the reporting on the conflicts in the ME are viewed through the prism of the west style thinking…..if one spends a little time looking at the situation in the ME a few things point to the possibility of democracy is very low……marches and demands and slogans does NOT make a democratic movement……here are a few observations that will explain why I say this…..
The ME is NOT the Eastern Europe of the 90’s when the USSR was slowly dissolving…….as some have likened the situation in the ME…….there a a couple of things that are needed if there is to be a successful democracy in the making….
First, there needs to be some past flirtation or some history with democracy…….
Second, is there availability of some political leadership……..
Third, the support of the outside world for the transition to democracy….
The Arab world lacks all three features. Firstly, it lacks a memory of functioning democracy; its past experience is about autocrats ruling through family-member appointments in key state positions, top-heavy armed forces, and omnipresent state security services. Moreover, if one listens carefully to the demonstrating crowds, they are not unanimous in demanding democracy above all. Depending on national or local circumstances, they raise demands that are perhaps more vital to their individual survival than democracy – unemployment, food price inflation and poverty, religious and ethnic differences, police repression and brutality, minority status, political corruption.
The ME lacks democratic political leadership….without the experience of democracy and an understanding of it…there will be NO democracy in the short run…..the best we can expect is political reform….women voting, equal status, etc……but that will the best we will get……and the people will most likely return to an authoritarian ruler……someone who can maintain order…and you know what that means?
Without a couple of other ingredients democracy will NOT come to the ME. 1–construction of a constitution. 2–Dismantle all authoritarian institutions. 3–abolition of restrictive laws. Without these then the fruit of democracy will die on the vine….NO matter the country.
And then for democracy to become entrenched in the lives of the people it must conform to certain principles…..1–guarantee democratic institutions, 2–extend the democratic process, 3–prevent any authoritarian reversals…..another massive mountain to cross for the people of the ME….
And finally, for any ME democracy to succeed there needs to be toleration, compromise and civility in the process…..if you have ever been to the ME then you would have noticed that those things are in short supply………
I suggest that the West temper their enthusiasm for Arab democracy…..that way their disappointment will be less in the future…..Just do NOT sound the horn of triumph for democracy in the ME too soon.
In short…..democracy is NOT coming to the Middle East….not now and any belief it will is just delusional and wishful thinking…….sorry for the buzz kill!
Yes. Good post. In my opinion pretty accurate – with a few exceptions (of course)… 😆
I suppose my first question to you on the above would be (if we were debating this face to face over a bottle of wine): “And does that mean you are expecting the democracy you describe to break out in the US and elswhere any time soon?”
Secondly: If you regard most of the various autocrats in the Arab world as a sort of loose “Politburo” (since there is no overall mightily powerful unifying force that equals the old role of Russia), I think in many ways this equates almost exactly to the demise of the USSR.
Much of Eastern Europe still has little more than superficial democracy in many places – it’s often little more than window dressing – but then the US and (to a lesser extent) the UK (and don’t even mention the EU), aren’t exactly a good examples of how it should be done, are they?
I think, over all, we should look at what happened to the USSR as a reasonable analogy of what MIGHT transpire in the ME over time. The break-up of the USSR was about people power – check. It was NOT about democracy- check. It WAS a revolt against tyranny, repression, food pices and availability, proper wages for proper work and so much more that is similar to the ME – check, check, check, check, check…
The one really important difference I see is that it was the hugely powerful RUSSIA that held the USSR together and, with a weakened central dictatorial authority and military machine, most of the autocrats running the various satellite communist countries had little military support of their own that would be prepared to stand against the popular movement of the people and THUS, of course, the West (particularly the US) was very much a supporter (politically and even covertly??) of ANY popular movement that threatened the once mighty USSR.
So, I agree, but with huge reservations, and although you could well be right, I think its VERY early in the process to write it off just yet.
It’s going to be “wait and see” for a long time yet – probably years – maybe decades in some cases.
I think democracy will come…but a a slower rate than the US and UK and others would like…..another post tomorrow on what democracy may well look like, if and when it appears…..
I am hoping that democracy will break out in the US….finally! But (and there it is)……I am not holding my breath….
And there is the rub…..if Americans can think back 30 years they will remember places like Angola, El Salvador, Nicaragua….on and on…..I am guessing they will not (and that may be a future post)…..