Tag: Weather

Closing thought–27Jan23

Yep more climate information for us to consider…..

Last year shattered all kinds of climatic records, and not in a good way. In parts of western Europe, the Middle East, central Asia, China, and northwest Africa, it was the warmest year on record. Per Axios, that’s a sampling from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which found 2022 to be the fifth warmest year overall; furthermore, taken together, the past eight years were the eight warmest on record. Copernicus researchers called 2022 “a year of climate extremes” and warned that the world is perilously close to reaching temperatures 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a key limit flagged in the 2015 Paris Agreement, per CNN, and a threshold beyond which many climate scientists warn of dire and irreversible consequences.

n its report, Copernicus notes a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, which are now at the highest levels in the satellite record, not to mention the highest in 2 million years for CO2 and 800,000 years for methane. The list goes on: both polar regions saw record high temps, and Antarctic ice conditions hit record lows; Pakistan and northern India endured an extreme heatwave followed by a highly destructive, deadly monsoon; likewise, much of China saw extreme heat and drought. It seems La Nina was one saving grace that might have kept surface temps down a little, but that phenomenon appears to be waning, and El Nino may soon return, bringing the opposite effect.

North and South America are not mentioned in the Copernicus report, but as Time reports, climate-related disasters cost the US $165 billion last year once one adds up the wildfires, floods, mudslides, droughts, and Hurricane Ian, the third costliest storm in US history. The trend may continue in 2023, as Jan. 1 was the single warmest January day since 1940. The New York Times reports what Ukraine and its allies certainly see as one silver lining in the fact that a warm winter may dull one of Vladimir Putin’s most potent weapons: access to Russia’s natural gas supply.

As always it is nothing to worry about…just ignore the info and just shrug it off and be stupid.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Harsh Winter In Ukraine

As the winter approaches and the continued attacks on infrastructure Ukraine’s residents may be in for a bad winter….

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Russian missile strikes across Ukraine last week disabled nearly half of the country’s energy infrastructure, leaving millions of Ukrainians without power.

“Unfortunately Russia continues to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine’s civilian and critical infrastructure. Almost half of our energy system is disabled,” Shmyhal said on Friday, according to Reuters.

Russia previously avoided large-scale strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine but began such operations in early October after the truck bombing of the Kerch Bridge, which connects the Russian mainland to the Crimean peninsula.

Russian strikes on Ukraine appeared to wane on Saturday and Sunday, but massive damage has been done. Authorities in the capital Kyiv warned Friday that they are preparing for all scenarios, including the “complete shutdown” of the city’s power system.

POLITICO reported last week that Ukraine has warned its Western backers that it may not be able to recover if Russia launches more strikes on its energy infrastructure. The report said Kyiv is worried it might not have enough replacement parts to bring power and heat back online and is looking to the West for assistance.

Ukrainian officials said Saturday that they were starting a voluntary evacuation from the southern city of Kherson, which Ukraine recently recaptured after Russia withdrew from the area. The officials said the evacuations were starting due to the damage to the city’s energy infrastructure.

In an effort to ease concerns, the Ukrainian Energy Ministry said that it has control of the power grid despite the Russian strikes and said there was no need for people to panic.

(antiwar.com)

There is a growing concern by some that the nuclear problems will multiply….

Powerful explosions shook Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the global nuclear watchdog said Sunday, calling for “urgent measures to help prevent a nuclear accident” in the Russian-occupied facility. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said two explosions—one Saturday evening and another Sunday morning—near the Zaporizhzhia plant abruptly ended a period of relative calm around the nuclear facility that has been the site of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces since Russia invaded in February. Fears of a nuclear catastrophe have been at the forefront since Russian troops occupied the plant early in the war. Continued fighting has raised the specter of a disaster, the AP reports.

In renewed shelling close to and at the site, IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia plant reported hearing more than a dozen blasts within a short period Sunday morning and could see some explosions from their windows, the statement said. Several buildings, systems, and equipment at the power plant—none of them critical for the plant’s nuclear safety—were damaged in the shelling, the IAEA said, citing the plant’s management. Still, Grossi said reports of the shelling were “extremely disturbing.” He added: “Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately” and appealed to both sides to urgently implement a nuclear safety and security zone around the facility. “As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!” Grossi said.

Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s power grid and other key infrastructure from the air, causing widespread blackouts for millions of Ukrainians in frigid weather. That has left Ukrainians without heat, power, or water as snow blankets the capital, Kyiv, and other cities. Ukraine’s state nuclear power operator said Russian forces were behind the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia plant. Energoatom said in a Telegram post Sunday that the targeted and damaged equipment in the facility is consistent with Kremlin’s strategy “to damage or destroy as much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as possible as” winter sets in. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov, however, blamed Ukrainian forces, claiming they shelled the power plant twice Sunday. He said two shells hit near the power lines supplying the plant with electricity.

Just another in the series of problems that apparently only the West can solve…..

So what will the answers to these problems be?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing Thought–24Aug22

We all, no matter where you live, tend to bitch and moan about the weather and the weather people…..it seems it gets louder the older we get…..and then there is the Weather Channel that most retired Americans live and breath by……

Then I read a story about Hungary….and thought it is a good answer to those that are habitually wrong day after day…..

The two top officials of Hungary’s meteorological service were fired Monday after an inaccurate rain forecast prompted the postponement of a fireworks display on the country’s most important national holiday, per the AP. The annual St. Stephen’s Day fireworks show along the Danube River in Budapest—billed as the largest display in Europe—was called off Saturday afternoon based on forecasts that said extreme weather was likely around the 9pm start time. By evening, the storms had not materialized in the capital, but the show, which typically draws more than a million spectators, already had been rescheduled for the next week due to safety concerns.

The firings were announced in a brief statement by Minister of Technology and Industry Laszlo Palkovics, a top cabinet member in the government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The fired weather service chief, Kornelia Radics, had served in her post since 2013 and her deputy, Gyula Horvath, since 2016. While the minister did not provide a reason for the dismissals, the meteorological service had received harsh criticism in Hungary’s government-aligned media, which charged that the service’s “gravely wrong” forecast had caused a needless postponement of the fireworks display.

Critics of Orban’s government, which has been accused of corruption, nepotism, and anti-democratic tendencies, charged that the firings were politically motivated and reminiscent of Hungary’s communist past. In a Tuesday statement, the meteorological service demanded the reinstatement of its fired leaders. The agency described coming under “political pressure” concerning its assessments of weather models on the holiday and that those applying the pressure “ignored the scientifically accepted uncertainty inherent in meteorological forecasts.”

Think about it.

If that happened here there would be no one on TV to ‘predict’ our weather….and then what we have to bitch about?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Climate Change Bill

I know it is Saturday and I try to deviate from the news of the day….but for today this report is too important to push back until Monday.

A large climate change bill is headed to Biden for his signature…..here is what is in it……

The House gave final passage on Friday to the biggest investment ever in the US to fight climate change. The bill heading to President Biden’s desk also includes a hard-fought cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients and a new corporate minimum tax on big businesses. All told, the Democrats’ “Inflation Reduction Act” may not do much to immediately tame inflationary price hikes, but the package will touch countless American lives with longtime party proposals. Republicans deride the 730-page bill as big-government overreach and point particular criticism at its $80 billion investment in the IRS to hire new employees and go after tax scofflaws. Here are key parts of the $740 billion package—made up of $440 billion in new spending and $300 billion toward easing deficits, per the AP:

  • Climate: The bill would infuse nearly $375 billion over the decade in climate change-fighting strategies that Democrats believe could put the country on a path to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030. It represents the single biggest climate investment in US history.
  • EV tax breaks: For consumers, that means tax rebates to buy electric vehicles—$4,000 for used vehicle purchase and up to $7,500 for new ones, eligible to households with incomes of $300,000 or less for couples, or single people with income of $150,000 or less. Not all electric vehicles will fully qualify for the tax credits immediately, thanks to requirements that component parts be manufactured and assembled in the US. And pricier cars costing more than $55,000 and SUVs and trucks priced above $80,000 are excluded.
  • Other tax breaks: There’s also tax breaks for consumers to go green. One is a 10-year consumer tax credit for renewable energy investments in wind and solar. For businesses, the bill has $60 billion for a clean energy manufacturing tax credit and $30 billion for a production tax credit for wind and solar, seen as ways to boost and support the industries that can help curb the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The bill also gives tax credits for nuclear power and carbon capture technology that oil companies such as Exxon Mobil have invested millions of dollars to advance.
  • Drilling: The bill would impose a new fee on excess methane emissions from oil and gas drilling while giving fossil fuel companies access to more leases on federal lands and waters.
  • Drought: A late addition pushed by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., and other Democrats in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado would designate $4 billion to combat a mega-drought in the West, including conservation efforts in the Colorado River Basin, which nearly 40 million Americans rely on for drinking water.
  • Prescription costs: The bill would allow the Medicare program to negotiate some prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, saving the federal government some $288 billion over the 10-year budget window. The result is expected to lower costs for older adults on medications, including a $2,000 out-of-pocket cap for older adults buying prescriptions from pharmacies. The revenue raised would also be used to provide free vaccinations for seniors, who now are among the few not guaranteed free access, according to a summary document. Seniors would also have insulin prices capped at $35 a month.
  • Health insurance: The bill would extend the subsidies provided during the COVID-19 pandemic to help some Americans who buy health insurance on their own. Under earlier pandemic relief, the extra help was set to expire this year. But the bill would allow the assistance to keep going for three more years, lowering insurance premiums for some 13 million people who are purchasing their own health care policies through the Affordable Care Act.

This will be great fodder for the 2024 election……..it is a good start but more needs doing.

Diabetes sufferers will get a break with insulin prices which is great for those that have the disease.

Biden needed a win to prop up his approval rating.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

“Trying To Reason With The Hurricane Season”–2022

This post does not really help too many people but I post it because I live in what is called “Hurricane Alley” and we usually have a target on our backs every season and I want to let my regular readers know that if I am off-line for awhile is because some named storm has taken my power away…..

Since hurricane season officially begins on 01 June I try to let my readers know what we can expect according to the ‘experts’……

If NOAA’s predictions are correct, 2022 will be the seventh straight year with above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The agency predicts between 14 and 21 named storms, compared to an average of 14. It also expects 3 to 6 major hurricanes, which have sustained winds of at least 111mph and “are responsible for the overwhelming majority of damage due to wind and ocean surge,” as the Washington Post puts it. This season could represent the continuation of a trend: Last year had 21 named storms, 2020 broke the record with 30, and every year going back to 2016 has been “above average.”

In recent years, improved computer modeling and other technological enhancements have made NOAA’s predictions more accurate regarding both the frequency and intensity of storms. Climate-related factors also make prediction easier: warmer surface water temperatures provide fuel for hurricanes, and those temperatures have continued to tick higher in the western Atlantic. La Niña is another factor: the phenomenon cools the Pacific but creates favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic, allowing more room for air to rise and reducing wind shear, which can disrupt a storm’s development. Meanwhile, in its Central Pacific forecast, NOAA says La Niña will likely bring below-average hurricane activity.

In a news conference, NOAA officials emphasized that it only takes one storm to devastate communities, including those far from landfall, per ABC7. “Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, who urges everyone to visit Ready.gov to prepare for storms and other potential disasters. NOAA also released this year’s lineup of storm names, starting with Alex and ending with Walter. Officially, hurricane season runs June 1–November 30, although NOAA began tracking the year’s first tropical wave earlier this month, per ClickOrlando. Although no storms have formed yet, pre-season named storms did emerge in both 2020 and 2021.

We prepare as we do every year with lots of bottled water, can goods, charcoal, and lots of batteries and make sure the house is weathered proof…..after that all we can do is watch and wait…..

If I disappear then do not fret I will return as soon as I can…..thanx for all your support and friendship……

As per my tradition I leave you with a tune that sums up how we deal with the season at hand…..

Be well and be safe…..

Closing Thought–02Feb22

Oh goody….six more weeks of winter…..

If you were hoping for an early spring, better climb back into bed. Early Wednesday, Punxsutawney Phil made his annual Groundhog Day prediction on what the weather is looking like for the near future, and it appears we have six more weeks of winter ahead of us, reports the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Locals gathered at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., to hear Phil’s prognostication, an event organized by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle. In Phil’s 136th forecast, the groundhog saw his shadow, just like in 2021, which means spring is not afoot.

That doesn’t mean Phil’s look into the future is set in stone. USA Today notes that he’s only been correct about 40% of the time over the past decade. Last year, he was half right: He saw his shadow, guaranteeing 42 more days of wintry misery, but while February’s temps were indeed below average across the US mainland, March’s were above average. “There is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sniffed in a report last year.

There is also a ground hog predictor in New Jersey…..well this new Milltown Mel will not be making a prediction this year….he’s dead.

It’s Groundhog Day, but Milltown, NJ, isn’t celebrating this year. “Milltown Mel,” the town’s weather-prognosticating groundhog, died within days of the holiday. “We Wranglers are sad to report that Milltown Mel recently crossed over the rainbow bridge,” the groundhog’s official Facebook page announced Tuesday. “Considering the average lifespan of a Groundhog is about 3 years, that is not such a shock, but Mel left us at a tough time of year, when most of his fellow groundhogs are hibernating…so no babies will be available to replace him until this Spring. We tried everywhere to get a stand-in, but to no avail!” Hence Wednesday’s decade-old event is canceled, NBC News reports.

The New Jersey ceremony was inspired by the famous Gobbler’s Knob celebration in Punxsutawney, Pa., which started in 1887 and is the oldest Groundhog Day tradition in the US. That one, starring the groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, is still happening today (see how to watch it here); according to tradition, if he emerges from his hole and sees his shadow, we’re getting six more weeks of winter weather; if he doesn’t see his shadow, an early spring is predicted. Other nearby weather-predicting groundhogs include Dunkirk Dave and Staten Island Chuck in New York, and Buckeye Chuck in Ohio, NPR reports.

There you go…..your crappy news for a wintery Tuesday.

Now aren’t you glad you stopped by?

“lego ergo scribo”

Trying To Reason With The Hurricane Season–2021

The big news about the Hurricane Ida attack last weekend is Louisiana…once again this region is the brunt of the damage inflicted by this devastating storm.

My town was ravaged by Katrina in 2005 and this time we got heavy rain and some hard wind…..but the damage was minor compared to what it could have been…..

For those interested (probably not that damn many) here are a few photos of the town and area around it……..

https://www.sunherald.com/news/local/article253829728.html

https://www.sunherald.com/news/weather-news/article253863878.html

As you can see we were fortunate this time….but there is still two months to go in the 2021 season…..so it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

On a personal note–We never lost power but my WiFi was lost for a couple of days….I had minor damage to trees….my garden is history but I was able to save 4 okra plants….2 blueberry bushes took damage and my privacy fence lost an entire section…..the house and cars made it through unscathed…..all in all I was very fortunate.

We still have about 2 months of the season so we keep a sharp eye on the tropics….hoping we have had our storm this year.

Have a great Sunday….Be Well and Be Safe……

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Trying to Reason With The Hurricane Season–2021

Closing Thought–01Jun21

Today is 01 June….and the 2021hurricane season begins…..it actually got kicked off with a subtropical storm, Ana, in late May…..

This means little to anyone that does not live in Hurricane Alley….but since I do it is a big deal.

NOAA has made its predictions for 2021…..

Subtropical storm Ana formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ana was the first named storm in the Atlantic this year, though hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, per the AP. Ana was located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 45mph, the hurricane center said in a 5am advisory. The system was expected to continue its slow and erratic motion, then dissipate in a few days, forecasters said. CNN and the Weather Channel note this is the seventh year in a row that at least one named storm has formed before the official start of hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

This also isn’t the first hurricane season of late that’s kicked off with a subtropical storm: That happened in both 2018 and 2019, with Alberto and Andrea, respectively. The hurricane center said Ana is a subtropical storm because it is “entangled with an upper-level low,” but still has some “tropical characteristics.” A tropical storm watch was in effect for Bermuda. The storm isn’t set to hit the US. Meteorologists expect the 2021 season to be busy, but not as crazy as the record-breaking 2020 season.

Ana is a harbinger…..now for the predictions….

NOAA announced its initial outlook for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday.

It said an “above normal” season is most likely, at a 60% chance.

NOAA said it expects 13 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes for the 2021 season.

The 2021 hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

NOAA said it does not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.

Forecasters with Colorado State University reported last month that they believe there could be as many as 17 named storms for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. That would make it the sixth consecutive “above normal” season.

WE have set about getting our emergency supplies together……non-perishable food, drugs and especially batteries…..

Zeta hit us pretty hard last year….we are hoping that we get a small break…..

As usual I leave you with the tune of Jimmy Buffet….

Be Well….Be Safe….

I Read, I Write, You KNow

“lego ergo scribo”

Trying To Reason With The Hurricane Season

This post probably means little to those that do not have to deal with the possibility of a hurricane….but down here we take all news very seriously.

As the weekend begins we here on the Gulf Coast are preparing for the beginning of another hurricane season…..and the news is not all that good.

A recordkeeping change has altered expectations for the number of tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. The average number of named tropical storms in a year is now 14, up from an average of 12 before the change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. The numbers are based on a 30-year period, NPR reports, and the agency shifted to a new time frame on Friday, effective this season—1991 to 2020 instead of 1981 to 2010. The average for hurricanes is seven, up from six. The average number of Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes stays at three, per Axios. The agency made no adjustments for the Pacific Ocean. “These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” said a forecaster for the agency.

At the same time, with average temperatures rising in the US and precipitation becoming more erratic in places, the agency is adjusting what’s considered normal weather. As of next month, NOAA will use the higher temperature baseline of the past 30 years to reflect “normal.” Climate change hasn’t been shown to affect the total number of storms, but hotter water near the ocean surface can bring hurricanes that are more powerful. That’s been the case in the Gulf of Mexico lately. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones,” the forecaster said, “and determined that it can influence storm intensity.” Storms also are being spotted sooner because of improved technology. On Friday, President Biden proposed a $1.4 billion increase in the agency’s budget, up from the current $6.9 billion

Last year we had Hurricane Zeta…100 mph winds….lots of damage…..after Katrina in 2005 we do not need anymore storms to damage this region.

I will update the prediction as the season gets closer…..

As my tradition I close with Jimmy Buffet…..

Be well….be safe….

The Texas Debacle

By now everyone in the US has some idea about the catastrophic failure of the Texas electric infrastructure…..we all have seen the pics of broken water pipes and freezing weather…..the deaths and the agony that it has produced……and the reports are that Texas was very very close to a meltdown completely…

Texas was “seconds and minutes” away from an even greater catastrophe when the decision was made to bring in what were supposed to be rolling blackouts, according to officials who operate the only standalone power grid in the lower 48. Officials at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said Thursday that when a winter storm took more than half of its winter generating capacity offline early Monday just as demand was surging, operators had to act fast to prevent a worst-case scenario—equipment catching fire and substations blowing—that could have left many Texans without power for months, the Texas Tribune reports. ERCOT chief Bill Magness said that if operators hadn’t followed emergency procedures, the grid would have been overwhelmed, causing infrastructure damage that would have led to an “indeterminately long” crisis.

“The operators who took those actions to prevent a catastrophic blackout and much worse damage to our system, that was, I would say, the most difficult decision that had to be made throughout this whole event,” Magness said. He said a blackout where “we have to start the grid from scratch and power could be out for an indeterminate amount of time” is the “disaster scenario that’s our central job to avoid,” per BuzzFeed. So much power generation was knocked offline that the blackouts lasted far longer than expected. By Thursday, some 325,000 homes and businesses were without power, down from 3 million a day earlier, the AP reports. Senior ERCOT director Dan Woodfin, when asked how regulators could stop this from happening again, said one of the biggest problems was natural gas wellheads freezing up. (The cold weather has also caused a water crisis.)

This was a disaster of their own making.

You see the Texas infrastructure gurus decided that they would not be part of the nationwide electric grid…..so they did not have to follow federal regulations and the lack of concern in the past made this disaster possible…..plus they cannot borrow power from other states because they want to be self-sufficient (and how did that work out for these idiots?)

Texas seems to always have the idea of secession in the back of their politician’s narrow minds…….https://lobotero.com/2021/01/19/is-there-a-texit/

I see that conservatives are blaming clean energy for the problems in Texas…..7% of the energy comes from wind….BTW apparently they do not know that the energy in Antarctica comes from wind so that blows their idiot lie out of the water…..

Stupidity of deregulation and ill prepared is the problem….in other words the slugs in the state legislature.

Going it alone is not always the best idea…..just ask residents of Texas.

Then there is Se. Cruz that could have used this as a teaching moment for his kids to give them a sense of community instead they went to Mexico for a vacation.

And yet he will NOT be held accountable for his actions…..just like his butt buddy Trump is not held up.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo