AS we enter into the third week of this conflict….the death and destruction continues ….however there is a glimmer of hope….both sides have stated that there is significant progress being made in the talks to end this war……

But while the talking continues the destruction and death continues……

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian advanced is stalled. Much of its current offensive activity consists of shelling with airstrikes (standoff), missiles, and short-range rockets. The Iskander missile (pictured above) has been used quite frequently. According to news reports and social media the Russians appear to be hitting a number of civilian targets with these area weapons. The cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol are facing dire circumstances with shortages of food, fuel, water, and electricity and constant shelling of residential areas by the Russians. It is still pressing the attack against coastal city of Mariupol. As of March 16 the Russians have fired over 900 missiles from Russia and within Ukraine. Western Ukraine has not been targeted over the past few days.

Civilian Facilities Targeted by Russians. Many hospitals and medical clinics have been attacked according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Russia has stated that the attacks are ‘false flag’ operations by Ukrainian forces. Many observers note that a favorite Russian tactic is to demoralize the civilian population and cause a flow of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to disrupt their opponents operations and to ‘cleanse’ the occupied areas of potential future insurgents. There are reports that many deaths and hundreds of injuries were suffered by Ukrainians seeking safety in a theater that was clearly marked as sheltering civilians. Read “Hundreds feared trapped in Ukraine theater hit by airstrike”, AP News, March 17, 2022.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians may not get a no-fly zone or Polish MiG-29s; but they will continue to receive thousands of MANPADs. In addition, efforts are underway to provide more sophisticated air defense weapons that will reach altitudes that MANPADs cannot reach. There are reports that Slovakia may provide Ukraine with some of its S-300 air defense systems. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is going to be visiting Slovakia in the next several days and this will likely be a topic during the meetings. Slovakia will likely press the U.S. for some replacement systems if they go ahead with the S-300 transfer to Ukraine. There could be one or two U.S-manned Patriot missile batteries heading that way in the future.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. Thus far, the only amphibious landing of naval infantry that has taken place in the war occurred on the coast of the Sea of Azov in support of the Mariupol siege. There has no yet been a landing on the coast of the Black Sea. In the Black Sea there are likely six amphibious landing ships each with the capability to land about 300 troops and 12 main battle tanks. The seizure of the Baltic Leader, a Russian merchant ship, in the English Channel on February 25, 2022 has raised some legal questions about high seas freedoms.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Apparently the Russians had been preparing for a ‘victory parade’ in Kyiv. A secret stash of Russian military dress uniforms were found near Kyiv – providing an indication that the Russians had anticipated a quick military victory. (Politico). The Russians have made limited but unsuccessful attacks in the region northwest of Kyiv. For the last 24 hours the region east of Kyiv has been quiet, with the Russian forces still about 30 kilometers away. The Ukrainians are still in control of the town of Brovary, east of Kyiv. The U.S. Department of Defense said on Wednesday (Mar 16) that the Russians have not made any significant advances toward the city.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The city has still not been encircled, but it is suffering intense shelling from aircraft, missiles, and rockets. The Ukrainians have mounted several counterattacks over the past few weeks to keep the Russians off balance.

Sumy Region. The northeast city of Sumy has been the focus of a Russian attack over the past few weeks. This city and the surrounding villages have suffered extensive damage. Watch drone footage of the devastation. “Drone Footage Shows Extensive Damage in Eastern Ukraine’s Sumy Region”, Radio Free Europe, March 15, 2022.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The city is still being defended by Ukrainian forces. The Russians have been using long-range fires to strike military and civilian targets in the city.

Mykolayiv and then Odessa. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Russian warships have been shelling towns near Odessa as naval activity has been increasing in the northern Black Sea.

Refugees. As of March 16, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). This includes about 1.5 million children. A March 16, 2022 report (PDF, 9 pages) by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) provides details on the humanitarian impact of the Ukraine War.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

Zelensky Address to Congress. On Wednesday (Mar 16) the Ukrainian president addressed the United States Congress with an emotional appeal for a no-fly zone, more sanctions, fighter jets, and more shipments of military weapons and supplies. On Tuesday (Mar 15) the U.S. Senate passed a resolution condemning the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin, members of the Russian Security Council, the Russian Armed Forces, and Russian military commanders for committing atrocities against the Ukrainian people.

More U.S. Military Aid. On Wednesday (Mar 16) President Biden delivered remarks on the assistance that the United States is providing to Ukraine in a televised event (DVIDS, 9 mins). He announced more military aid ($800 million) to be shipped to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The equipment includes 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 anti-armor systems (Javelin, AT-4, etc.), 100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (Switchblades used by SOF), 7,000 small arms, and munitions for artillery and mortars.

NATO Conference. President Biden will travel to Europe to meet with European heads of state and senior officials of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The event will take place in Brussels. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be present as well.

Ruling by International Court of Justice. On Wednesday (Mar 16) the curt issued a ruling in Ukraine’s case against the Russian Federation under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The ruling ordered Russia to immediately suspend the military operation in Ukraine. (DoS press release 16 March 2022).

Legality of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Much of the information operations (IO) battle concerns the opinions former by the international community of the justification and legality of the Russian invasion. A recent report by the Congressional Research Service examines the Russian reasons for its invasion of Ukraine and subsequent actions during the conflict in the context of international law. The Law of War and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, CRS, March 16, 2022, PDF, 5 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10710

Germany’s Big Defense Shift. The recent invasion of Ukraine has prompted the German government to reverse decades of German pacifism and pivot toward building a stronger military and defense industry. It will begin to institute reforms to bring its defense spending in lien with the 2 per cent NATO requirement. Putin has managed, with his aggression in Ukraine, to take Germany off the sidelines and have it once again assume its traditional status as central Europe’s dominant military power. “Germany’s Defence Pivot”, Defence Connect, March 17, 2022.

Cyberspace and the Military. The dynamics of cyberspace and conflict are driving fundamental shifts that the military and society will have to surmount. There are some unique challenges to the cyber civil-military relationship – a couple include the constant quest for intelligence by military leaders and perhaps a tendency to see cyber as a weapon that does not cause human suffering . . . and therefore the threshold for employment is lower. Jason Healey, president of the Cyber Conflict Studies Association, explores these issues and more in “Soldiers, Statesmen and Cyber Crises: Cyberspace and Civil-Military Relations”, Lawfare, March 16, 2022.

Ukrainian Version of the Ballad of the Green Berets. Members of the U.S. Special Forces community will recognize this tune. “One Hundred Warriors”.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=X2V8dpQQgMY

How long can this conflict continue?

Well?  Any ideas or thoughts?

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Three weeks into the Ukrainian defense of their homeland…..the forces of ‘Vlad the Invader’ still have not done what needs doing for some sort of victory on their part.

Fighting rages, aid flows in, refugees flee the fighting……

SOF News does the hard work so all the armchair generals will have all the available info at their finger tips…..

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian offensive seems to have stalled out due to logistics and other factors. It seems they don’t have the numbers of forces on the ground for a sustained offensive. In time, the necessary forces and supplies to renew the offensive will arrive in the operational area as Russia flows more equipment and personnel into the region. The Russians, in some areas, are channelized on main road due to ‘Rasputica‘ – the mud season. Putin has purged the higher echelons of Russian intelligence agencies blaming them for the poor performance of the Russian military.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians managed to attack one of Russia’s forward operating bases at an airfield near Kherson. Several helicopters were destroyed. “Ukraine Strikes Back”, The Drive, March 15, 2022. There are some social media reports that the White House is considering providing Ukraine will some Switchblade drones currently used by U.S. special operations.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues. The amphibious force with naval infantry are still off shore ready to be committed at the opportune time. “Russian Navy Landing Ships Seen Approaching Ukrainian Coast Near Odessa”, Naval News, March 15, 2022.

The Ground Fight. Much is made of the use of Russian tanks in the Ukraine War. The effectiveness of the tanks has been diminished due to muddy fields that channelize Russian vehicles, the use of numerous anti-armor weapons by the Ukrainian military, shortage of spare parts and fuel, and lack of proper operational planning and execution. Learn more about Russian tanks is a 8-minute video entitled Analyzing Russian Tanks in Ukraine: T80 “Flying” Tank, by Battle Order, March 13, 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VJNcE6hQu4

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Over the past 24 hours the capital city has increased shelling. The encirclement of Kyiv by the Russians has yet to take place. The roads directly south and southwest in and out of Kyiv are open. There is a temporary restriction on movement of people.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The Russian offensive to take this city seems to be on hold. Perhaps it doesn’t have the necessary forces to take the city, and then logistics could be a key factor as well.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The capture of Mariupol will likely be the next key victory for the Russians. It is unlikely that the Ukrainian forces can break out of the city and also unlikely that the city can be relieved. The humanitarian convoy for Mariupol is still in Berdyansk – unable to get into the city. Thousands of people left the city on Tuesday (Mar 15) via a humanitarian corridor in 2,000 private vehicles. Another 2,000 are gathered in a location of the city to leave on Wed (Mar 16). There are around 350,000 people still remaining in the city. Read more in “In embattled Mariupol, glimpses of devastation and misery emerge”, The Washington Post, March 15, 2022.

Mykolayiv and Then Odessa. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. The Russian naval and air force conducted strikes in and around the city of Odessa on the Black Sea. A venture into Odessa by the Russians could subject them to the maze-like catacombs of the city – making for a difficult urban battle. Satellite images showed 14 ships approaching the coast of the Black Sea, one of the 120-meter landing ship Pyotr Morgunov of Russia’s northern fleet.

Refugees. As of March 15, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). Ukraine officials say that 7 of the 9 negotiated humanitarian corridors were open on Tuesday (Mar 15). The United Nations says that the Ukraine war is creating a child refugee almost every second. The United Nations Officer for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has published its Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for March 15, 2022, PDF, 10 pages.

The International Rescue Committee has published a FAQ for refugees. The United States has designated Ukraine for Temporary Protected Status. This protects those Ukrainians who are working or studying in the U.S. from having to return to Ukraine. Tomasz Wroblewski, CEO of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, writes that the flow of refugees from Ukraine is part of a bigger plan to erode western European society. “Russian’s Not-So-Secret Weapon Against NATO and The West: Refugees”, 1945, March 15, 2022.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

UKR Legion. The International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine has members from all over the world. Over 20,000 foreigners from 52 different countries have already volunteered. What is the status of these volunteers in a legal sense? If captured, are they legitimate combatants or just ‘mercenaries’? “Status of Foreign Fighters in the Ukrainian Legion”, Articles of War, Lieber Institute West Point, March 15, 2022.

Volunteer Groups Assisting. Perry Blackburn, retired Special Forces officer, explains what his volunteer organization is doing to assist the people of Ukraine. “AFGFree Assists with Ukraine Evacuation”, Forum Daily (CA), YouTube, March 15, 2022. See also an article by Jeff Schogol of Task & Purpose about a U.S. Army veteran now serving with the Ukrainian forces.

Private Americans Training Ukrainians. U.S. combat troops have come out of retirement to train Ukrainians in the fight against Putin’s forces. Read about one of the many small groups of informal instructors and trainers who have made their way to Ukraine to help resist Russian aggression. “U.S. Veterans Start a “Resistance Academy” in Ukraine. Will it Backfire?”, The Rolling Stone, March 12, 2022.

Fox Camera Crew Killed. Two members of a Fox News crew were killed in Ukraine when their vehicle was struck by incoming fire a few kilometers outside Kyiv. War zone veteran Pierre Zakrzewski was killed along with a Ukrainian ‘fixer’ who helped facilitate the news crews work in Ukraine. Oleksandra Kuvshynova, a Ukrainian journalist who worked with Zakrzewski, was killed in the same attack. Reporter Benjamin Hall was injured in the attack as well and is currently hospitalized in Kyiv.

Council of Europe – Minus Russia. The Council of Europe was about to cast Russia out of the organization. But Russia said “I Quit” first. Read a statement from the CoE on the exclusion of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe. (March 15). The expulsion means that Russian citizens will not be able to bring cases to the European Court of Human Rights.

Putin a War Criminal. The U.S. Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed a resolution condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin as a war criminal. (Reuters, Mar 15, 2022).

ini-Manual for the Urban Defender. John Spencer has been writing about combat in the urban environment for years. He is considered one of the leading authorities on the tactics and techniques of fighting in big cities. He has published (March 15, 2022, version 1, PDF) a 50-page document on how to fight in a city as a defender.

The Next Phase. Ideally, Ukraine would recapture Russian-controlled areas through a conventional counter-offensive. However, that is unlikely. The United States and NATO countries should begin planning for the possibility that unconventional tactics will be necessary to overcome conventional Russian military power. “Ukraine Isn’t Waging an Insurgency – Yet”, The Defense Post, March 15, 2022.

Russian Lies on Bio and Chem Wpns. The Russians are makin absurd claims about biological labs and chemical weapons in Ukraine according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. There is concern that Russian is prepping the world for a false flag operations, possibly including chemical weapons. Russia has helped facilitate the use of chemical weapons in Syria over the past decade. “NATO Chief: There Will be “High Price to Pay’ for Russian Use of Chemical Weapons”, DoD News, March 15, 2022.

NATO’s Response Since 2014 and Now. After Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO renewed its focus on territorial defense and deterring Russian aggression. This response included the deploying ‘battlegroups’, increasing military exercises and training, and enhancing air patrols over the Baltic states, Bulgaria, and Romania. Since the February 2022 invasion NATO has more than doubled the alliance force presence in Eastern Europe. There are now more than 130 allied fighter jets on high alert in the eastern part of the alliance and more than 200 allied ships from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean. In addition, the NATO Response Force has been activated for deployment.

High Level Visit. On Tuesday (Mar 15) the Prime Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia took a train to Kyiv to pay a visit to Ukrainian President Zelensky and offer their support to the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion.

International Support . . . or Not. NATO countries continue to flow critical equipment to Ukraine to include anti-tank and air defense weapons, drones, ammunition, and fuel. Hungary has opted out of supporting Ukraine. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a longtime Putin supporter and says that the country “must stay out of this war” and won’t support Ukraine with weapons. Israel is attempting to be neutral in this conflict and has failed to strike a just balance between morality and realpolitik.

Video – Illusions of Peace . . . and Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has upended many assumptions about the post-Cold War period in Europe. Most thought another major war was not possible. However, the belief of how economic interdependence, a growing NATO, and the impact of the European Union would contribute to an era of enduring peace are now in question. Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard University, explores the liberal illusions amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “Hard Power Still Matters”, Belfer Center, Harvard University, March 10, 2022, YouTube, 5 minutes.

Cordesman on ‘Lessons of Ukraine’. One certainty that can be understood from the Ukrainian War is that Putin will be a dangerous man for as long as he is in power – long after the Ukraine War has ended. Anthony Cordesman writes that the United States now faces two superpowers and that confrontation not cooperation is the future. Read “U.S. Strategy and the Real Lessons of Ukraine”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 14, 2022.

Ignoring the Signs. Edward Lucas writes on how many national security experts cite the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea and two sections of eastern Ukraine as the first indication that Russia’s aspirations in eastern Europe constituted a danger. He argues that some ‘western experts’ are echoing the Kremlin’s version of history. Lucas says that 2007 is a more accurate date – with the cyberattack in Estonia, the 2008 war in Georgia, and more. “Fog of War”, Europe’s Edge, Center for European Policy Analysis, March 14, 2022.

End of Hybrid Warfare? Seth Cropsey of the Yorktown Institute has relegated Russian hybrid warfare to the graveyard. He cites the ‘failures’ of 2014 and 2022 in Ukraine as examples. Hmmm. Read his thoughts in “Wither Hybrid War”, Real Clear Defense, March 15, 2022. (Editor’s note: Not buying it.)

Podcast – Russia’s Military. Retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, a senior fellow at Harvard University, discusses Russia’s military capabilities and how the war in Ukraine is unfolding. WBUR.org, March 11, 2022, 10 mins.

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Day 20 and more the same news….Russia shelling civilian targets….Zelensky’s TV performances…..the average persons take on the conflict……and the refugees……

Just a one stop shopping for people that care about getting to the heart of this conflict……learn the facts (as we can paste them together)…..

Russian Campaign Update. The Russians have been, for several days, regrouping their forces, ironing out their logistics difficulties, and preparing for encircling Kyiv and other large Ukrainian cities. It has been shelling several cities with artillery, rocket, and missile fire. The US DoD announced on Monday (14 Mar) that over 900 missiles have been used by the Russians in the 3-week long war. There has been limited advances on the ground. Ukraine has accused Russia of targeting its agricultural economy by destroying key agricultural machinery plants.

Russian Tanks and Their ‘Cages’. Some Russian soldiers have been adorning their tank cupolas with ‘cages’ that are meant to defeat or diminish the effect of anti-armor weapons. The strange structures most likely do nothing to defend against the anti-armor weapons. Western military analysts are referring to them as “cope cages” – meaning they are a coping mechanism to deal with the prospect of being blown up by a Javelin or NLAW. Read more in “Russian tanks in Ukraine are sprouting cages”, The Economist, March 14, 2022.

Ukrainian Defense. The armed forces of Ukraine continue to offer up stiff resistance but may be forced to do some consolidating and collapsing of their interior lines. Martial law has been extended for another month – going until mid-April.

Fight for the Skies. The Ukrainians continue their pleas for a NATO implemented no-fly zone and for the transfer of the 28 MiG-29s that Poland is offering up. The Ukrainians have at least 60 operational fixed-wing aircraft but are not putting the planes up into the sky very often. Some NATO ISR drones and other surveillance aircraft are in flight patterns very close to the border areas of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Presumably, there is some intelligence data being transferred to the Ukrainians. NATO fighter aircraft are constantly in the air and on guard – many being refueled while flying. Watch footage of a U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon get refueled mid-flight over Romanian airspace (DVIDS, Mar 12, 2022, 2 mins)

Jets, MANPADs, and Armed Drones. The fighter jets and close air support aircraft on both sides of the conflict have not been present in the skies over Ukraine as much as one would have thought. This is due to both sides having good air defense weapons. The Ukrainians have been employing the Stinger and other MANPADs very effectively. Watch a DVIDS video of U.S. Marines firing the Stinger during a training exercise in Norway (DVIDS, Mar 11, 2022, 1 min). Drones are playing a big role in the Ukraine War. Both sides are employing them. Ukraine has been using the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones very effectively. Read more in “Turkey deployed personnel to operate armed drones in targeting Russian military in Ukraine”, Nordic Monitor, March 14, 2022.

Podcast – Understanding No-Fly Zones. The Ukrainian president has been persistently calling for NATO to implement a no-fly zone over his country. Some people across Europe and in the United States support this. NATO and the U.S. are hesitant to take this course of action. A veteran USAF aviator who took part in several no-fly zone operations in the past discusses the practical requirements and challenges of implementing a no-fly zone and how those apply in the airspace over Ukraine. Podcast posted by Modern War Institute at West Point, March 10, 2022, 40 minutes.
https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-understanding-no-fly-zones/

No-Fly Zones. A Brief, Concise Explanation. Brad Taylor, a 23-year veteran of U.S. Army Special Forces, provides three reasons why a no-fly zone over Ukraine is not a good idea. “Ukraine’s No-Fly Zone isn’t as Simple as it Sounds”, Brad Taylor Books, March 13, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The last several days have seen only incremental progress on the part of the Russian forces. The capital is projected to be able to hold out for a few more weeks. Longer if the supply lines from the west are not interdicted. The city received some shelling in the early morning hours of Tuesday (15 Mar).

Podcast – What Will the Battle of Kyiv Look Like? John Spencer, a student of urban warfare, argues that the battle for Kyiv is the only battle that matters in the Ukraine War. Listen to his perspective in this podcast posted by the Modern War Institute at West Point on March 14, 2022 (43 minutes).
https://mwi.usma.edu/what-will-the-battle-of-kyiv-look-like/

Sumy. This city on the Russian border in northeast Ukraine is almost surrounded by the Russians. Sumy has been receiving shelling and the Russians occupy the outskirts of the city and part of the city. There is an area southwest of the city that appears to be held by Ukrainian forces. The Russians have interrupted the flow of electricity and supply of humanitarian aid to the area. There are reports that an evacuation corridor period is set for Tuesday (Mar 15) but it is unknown if the Russians will actually allow it to take place.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. The city is not quite encircled. It is the recipient of heavy artillery, rocket, and missile fire from the Russians. Social media is deluged with pictures and videos of the destruction by the Russians. Some reports say that around 600 houses have been destroyed by shelling. On Tuesday (15 Mar) the city was also hit by short-range Iskander ballistic missiles launched from Russia.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. Social media reported that at least 160 cars were able to leave the city on Monday (Mar 14). Food and water is extremely scarce. A humanitarian convoy loaded with 100 tons of food, water, clothes, and with evacuation buses couldn’t reach the city, blocked in Berdyansk. The Russians have denied entry for three days. The Mariupol City Council estimates that over 2,300 people have died in the city as of Monday (Mar 14).

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea.

Negotiations. A video conference between the Russians and Ukrainians took place on Monday (Mar 14), no word if any results came of it.

Refugees. As of March 14, over 2,950,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). There are almost 2 million displaced personnel within Ukraine. Read more on the humanitarian impact of the Ukraine War in the daily Situation Report of the United Nations Officer for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War published on Monday (Mar 14).

Russia’s TikTok Warriors. An investigation by VICE News uncovered a coordinated campaign to pay TikTok influencers to post videos pushing pro-Kremlin narratives about the war in Ukraine. Campaigns are coordinated in secret Telegram channels that directs the influencers what to say, what videos to use, and when to post the video. Some of these influencers have over a million followers. Read more in this detailed report. “Russian TikTok Influencers Are Being Paid to Spread Kremlin Propaganda”, Vice.com, March 11, 2022.

Russia’s Cyber War Explored. Cyber security researchers are puzzled on the somewhat mild effectiveness of the cyber warfare conducted by Russia against Ukraine. They speculate that Russia is holding back the big cyber guns for the opportune moment to employ them. A wide ranging article explores these topics and more in “Why Russian Cyber Dogs Have Mostly Failed to Bark”, War on the Rocks, March 14, 2022.

Online Event – Cyber Law in Ukraine. Listen to some ‘cyber experts’ that met virtually at the U.S. Cyber Command Annual Legal Conference to discuss the international legal implications of cyber operations in the war between Russia and Ukraine. They explored a broad array of legal issues, including the use of force, sovereignty, cyber intervention, neutrality, co-belligerency, and the application of law-of-war targeting rules to cyber operations. (DVIDS, Mar 10, 2022, 35 mins)

Russia’s Foreign Agent Law. It is becoming more difficult to show dissent in Russia or to share true information about the Russian invasion. There are new rules, regulations, and laws that carry a heavy penalty if expressing opposition to Putin’s war. A revision to Russia’s law on “foreign agents” is going to make things worse. “Putin’s Revised Foreign Agent Law Could Enable Mass Repression”, Lawfare Blog, March 14, 2022.

Address to Congress. Ukrainian President Zelensky will be addressing the U.S. Congress on Wednesday (Mar 16). The video call will be on 9 a.m. ET. He will no doubt ask for a no-fly zone and MiG-29s among other things.

Germany’s Air Power. The German defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, has confirmed that Germany will equip its air force with F-35 jets built by the United States. Germany has done a policy upgrade to their defense posture – earmarking a lot more money to their armed forces.

China’s Weapons and Support to Russia? Much reporting has taken place over the last few days on Russia’s request to China for drones and other types military equipment. Tom Rogan, a national security observer, says that “China would appear to take on far more risks in providing Russia with military equipment than it would accrue benefits.” China’s strategic power lies in part in its economic interaction with Europe and the rest of the world. In addition, getting aligned with Russia during this sensitive time is going to affect China’s international prestige and political influence. China does not want to be regarded by Europe as an “ideological adversary and security threat.” “Why China is very unlikely to send military equipment to help Russia in Ukraine”, Washington Examiner, March 14, 2022.

And China’ Choice? One superpower has asked another superpower for assistance – and apparently part of the request is for ready-to-eat meals, which seems to be an odd request from a superpower. The food is one of several things on a Russian shopping list. Whether China responds is still an unknown. The Chinese might be trying to distance themselves from the conflict. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says that China may be key to resolving the conflict through its influence and stance on the Ukraine War. “Putin’s war and China’s choice”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 15, 2022.

Who is Putin? Listen to a discussion about the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine and learn a little bit about the leader of the Russian people from Baroness Catherine Ashton and Ambassador Mark Green in this online video. Hindsight Up Front, Wilson Center, YouTube, March 14, 2022.

More Info Snippets. A Fox News reporter was injured while covering events in Ukraine. Correspondent Benjamin Hall was injured near Kyiv on Monday (Mar 14) and has been hospitalized. Over 40,000 (number vary based on news source) Syrians have registered to fight for Russia, as of Monday there are no reports of Syrians actually flying to Russia. There are rumors that U.S. President Biden will head to Europe next week to confer with NATO leaders, with a meeting date of March 23rd. The Washington Examiner is reporting that the leaders of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia will travel to Kyiv on Tuesday (Mar 15) to express the European Union’s “unequivocal support” for Ukraine. The U.S. and EU are trying to wean off Russian energy. The Ukraine War has interrupted key supply chains that will affect the worldwide economy. A US astronaut is nearing completion of his months long stay on the International Space Station – will the Russians bring him back to earth?

Getting IW Right. Dr. Jonathan Schroden writes about the importance of integrating irregular warfare into the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Especially relevant now that we are experiencing the results of decades of Russian hybrid warfare and the prospect of U.S. special operations forces conducting unconventional warfare in eastern Europe and beyond. “Irregular Warfare: Getting IW Right in the Upcoming National Defense Strategy”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 14, 2022.

Podcast – How Ukraine is Changing European Security. Two members of the Brookings Institution are interviewed on their thoughts on how the Ukraine War is reshaping Europe’s approach to security affairs. The Lawfare Blog, March 14, 2022, one hour.

The Ukrainian Disaster. The army that everyone thought was 10 feet tall seems a bit diminished after three weeks of war in Ukraine. The Chief of the Russian General Staff wrote a famous article in 2013 on how to overthrow governments in nearby countries. In 2014, Russia took over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. This became known as the “Gerasimov doctrine”. It was a good theory until 2022 – Gerasimov’s regime change ideas have failed dismally in Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Read the ‘why’ in “General Valery Gerasimov’s Great Ukrainian Disaster”, Real Clear Defense, March 14, 2022.

Proxy War. Some people are characterizing the war in Ukraine as a proxy war between the United States and Russian. A lot of people disagree with that ‘label’. Michel Wyss, of the Swiss Armed forces Military Academy, argues that a proxy war is already taking shape and warns of the many risks and dangers this may entail. “Is Europe Prepared for a Proxy War With Russia?”, Lawfare Blog, March 13, 2022.

Calling Putin’s Bluff. The Putin threat of nuclear war has prevented the U.S., NATO, and other nations from intervening with military force on Ukraine’s behalf. Kevin R. James argues that the stiff economic warfare against Russia may influence the course of events in the Ukraine War but that eventually Russia will prevail. And then the West will have to contend with an economically damaged but victorious Russia. The West will then have to face up to further aggression from Russia – and probably with military forces. So James argues that the time for action is now. “The case for direct military intervention in Ukraine”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), March 15, 2022.

Regime Change – In Russia. Putin’s decision to go to war has made him vulnerable to both popular and elite discontent in Russia. The economic downturn will erode away his support with the general population. As news filters out about the Ukraine disaster his support will fade even more. Within the inner circles of power concern will build on the road the Putin has taken the country down. It is not far-fetched to envision some sort of ‘regime change’ taking place over the next few months. “Regime Change, But for Whom”, by Philip Wasielewski, Small Wars Journal, March 14, 2022.

No end insight but there is a glimmer of hope with the upcoming meetings…..but do not hold your breath for a quick end to this conflict.

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