Ukraine–Day 18

This series is for those readers that do not have unlimited time to look at the conflict between Ukraine and Russia…..SOF News can help……

Russian Campaign Update. Russia continues to occupy three major Ukrainian cities – Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdyansk located in southern Ukraine. Mariupol on the coast of the Sea of Azov is encircled. The Russians have made some limited progress advancing from the east to Kyiv. Some small gains were made moving north from Crimea along the western bank of the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian counterattacks and ambushes against the Russian lines of communication in northeast Ukraine is hindering the logistics effort. Some news reports indicate that Putin has fired some of his top generals and others say that high ranking members of the intelligence community have been arrested.

Russian Wounded. Many wounded Russian soldiers are being evacuated to Belarus. There has been a constant flow of convoys of ambulances in the border area heading north. They are being taken to a hospital in Mazyr, a city in southern Belarus. Read more in “Russia Evacuates Wounded Soldiers to Belarus as Its Casualties in Ukraine War Rise”, The Wall Street Journal.

Russian Dead. The bodies of dead Russian soldiers are being brought by truck to Mazyr, Belarus and then sent home to Russia by train or plane. The morgues in Homel and Naroulia are also filled up. U.S. officials have estimated that several thousand Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the weeks-long war. “Bodies of Russian Soldiers Filling Up Belarusian Morgues, Residents Say”, Radio Free Europe, March 13, 2022.

Advance From Brest? There are indications that the Russians and / or the Belarus might push southward into western Ukraine from Brest, Belarus to interrupt the lines of communications running east – west across Ukraine. This would cut off supplies of weapons from western nations transiting across the border toward the central part of Ukraine in the vicinity of Lviv.

Fight for the Skies. The Russians are flying a couple of hundred sorties a day. However, most of them are not over Ukrainian airspace and are lobbing long-range missiles from inside Russian airspace. This is due to the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are flying infrequently because of the the Russian surface-to-air missiles that are in many locations of Ukraine. (Defense One, Mar 11, 2022).

Maritime Activities. No significant maritime activities have taken place in the past few days.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. The Russian army is in the northern outskirts of the city and control the Antonov / Hostomel airport located to the northwest of the Kyiv. The city currently has electricity, gas, food, and water. There is enough food for the 2 million residents who have stayed in the city to last two weeks. The situation on the ground around Kyiv remains somewhat static. (view SITMAP of Kyiv).

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. It is not yet encircled and the Ukrainians are putting up a strong defense. There is the possibility that Kharkiv could be cut off from the center of Ukraine – losing the ability to be resupplied.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The mayor of the city says it can hold out until May 17th. The Ukrainian military is in no position to relieve the city as it is committed to defending too many other areas. Russian forces advanced into the eastern outskirts of Mariupol on Saturday. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted by Russian forces.

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Odessa is secure for now and the risk of an amphibious assault seems to have subsided for the moment.

Western Ukraine. The Yavoriv Military Range near the western city of Lviv suffered up to 8 missile strikes in the early morning hours of Sunday (Mar 13). The attack on the International Peacekeeping and Security Center is 20 kilometers away from the Polish border and 30 kilometers northwest of Lviv. At least nine are dead and 57 more were injured. This is the most western attack since the Russians invaded Ukraine. Reports indicate that the missiles were launched from Saratov, Russia. (The New York Times, Mar 13, 2022). (subscription)

Refugees. Currently 2.5 Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries to the west of Ukraine. There are about 1.8 internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have fled to western Ukraine. The evacuation route from the city of Sumy in northeast Ukraine was open on March 12th, with about 8,000 people able to flee.

Situation Maps. The Institute for the Study of War provides a daily map and assessment update. The War Mapper has posted its SITMAP for March 13, 2022.

UNCN. The Ukraine NGO Coordination Network is an organization that ties together U.S.-based 501c3 organizations and non-profit humanitarian organizations that are working to evacuate and support those in need affected by the Ukraine crisis. https://uncn.one

Russian Intel Officers Arrested. After a dismal two week performance in Ukraine, Putin has suddenly launched another surprise attack. This time against the Fifth Service of the Federal Security Service (FSB). The leadership has been placed under house arrest for providing poor intelligence ahead of Russia’s non-stuttering invasion. The Service of Operative Information and International Relations Service has seemed to have told Putin what he wanted to hear instead of what he needed to hear. “Putin Places Spies Under House Arrest”, Center for European Policy Analysis, March 11, 2022.

Russian Logistics. Alex Vershinin, a retired U.S. Army LtCol with time in armor units, describes some of the logistics challenges that Russia is experiencing at the moment. He says that the initial thrust into Ukraine sucked up the fuel and supplies that the invading forces had on hand. But he believes in time the logistics system will catch up . . . especially once the railheads are established within Ukraine. “Russia’s Logistical Problems May Slow Down Russia’s Advance – But They Are Unlikely To Stop It”, Modern War Institute at West Point, March 10, 2022.

Video – Learning to Use the NLAW. In Kyiv, instructors are giving last minute training to members of the 112th Territorial Defense Brigade in preparation for the defense of the capital city. Watch this video of the training on the NLAW. “Kyiv Volunteers Get Last-Minute Training on Powerful Anti-Tank Weapons”, Radio Free Europe, March 11, 2022, 5 minutes.

Javelin Anti-Tank Missile. One of the more potent anti-armor weapons is the Javelin anti-tank missile. The weapon locks onto the target’s thermal picture. It has a ‘fire and forget’ feature that improves the crew’s survivability. Read an excellent article that provides a detailed description and graphics on the Javelin. “What to know about the role Javelin antitank missiles could play in Ukraine’s fight against Russia”, The Washington Post, March 12, 2022.

Russian Cluster Bombs. Civilian deaths in the cities of Ukraine are climbing daily as a result of indiscriminate firing by the Russians of artillery, rockets, and missiles into residential areas. One of the more deadly weapons are the cluster munitions – a type of weapon that will deploy a large number of smaller sub-munitions over a target. More than 100 countries have banned their use and signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions. “These are the Cluster Munitions Documented by Ukrainian Civilians”, Bellingcat, March 11, 2022.

Serbia – Staying Friends. Russians wanting to travel can fly direct from Moscow to Belgrade. There are about 15 flights a week by Ari Serbia. Travelers can then travel onward to their final destination from Belgrade. Top destinations are France, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Italy.

Russia and China – Sharing Lies. The men who lead Russian and China have been spending some nurturing their relationship. This deepening friendship is driven in part by a perception that the United States is constraining their interests. So naturally they are collaborating on the narratives they supply to their domestic audiences and to the world at large. David Bandurski, the co-director of the China Media Project, provides the details in “China and Russia are joining forces to spread disinformation”, Tech Stream, Brookings Institute, March 11, 2022.

Ukrainian Journalists. Life has changed dramatically for the reporters in Ukraine. They have adapted their work practices and location. Read more in “What It’s Like for Ukrainian Journalists Reporting on the War in Their Country”, Time, March 6, 2022.

From Cold War to Hot War. George Beebe, a former chief of CIA’s Russia’s analysis team, believes we could very well see ourselves in conflict with Russia. He believes that diplomacy is the only way to end the Ukraine crisis. Unless we follow that path he argues we are unlikely to find ourselves in a new Cold War. We may instead be in a very hot one. “Raging Toward the Abyss with Russia”, National Interest, March 11, 2022.

Supplying Weapons to Ukraine. There has been a lot of debate about the supplying of weapons to Ukraine by NATO and other countries of the world. Some critics worry that this support violates the law of neutrality – that it might be an act of war. A couple of law professors take a keen eye to this question and provide us with an answer in “Supplying Arms to Ukraine is Not an Act of War”, Just Security, March 12, 2022.

The Big Picture. Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at the nonprofit research organization – Center for Naval Analyses – is interviewed on the recent modernization of the Russian army, the false expectations of the Russian leadership, and the likely end result of the war. He says that a series of strategic missteps has hampered Putin’s campaign. “The Russian Military’s Debacle in Ukraine”, The New Yorker, March 11, 2022.

Keep the Weapons Flowing. Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University, provides the argument for continuing the transfer of weapons to the Ukraine military. While it may not stop Russia from occupying Ukraine it will certain make it costly for them. And it will raise the cost of Russian aggression in other countries. “Arming Ukraine Is Worth the Risk”, Foreign Affairs, March 11, 2022.

For all those inquiring minds.

I Read, I Write, You KNow

“lego ergo scribo”

Spring Forward (Again)

Warning:  The included video uses hard language that some may find offensive…so if expletives offends your sensibilities then by all means do not read and move on.

Here we go yet another year…..

It is that time again….when a government mandate gives Americans jet lag twice a year….daylight savings time.

Personally I think this is the biggest waste of time (no pun intended) that accomplishes nothing but confusion and chaos.

Where did this stupidity begin?

Actually we can lay some of the blame on Ben Franklin…..

Benjamin Franklin gets some credit for the idea of daylight saving time, though his recommendation was really a joke.

In a letter to the editor of the Journal of Paris, Franklin jokingly recommended the people get out of bed earlier in the morning to minimize the use of candles and lamp oil.

He never even mentioned setting clocks back or forth.

In 1895, George Hudson, an entomologist from New Zealand, came up with the modern concept of daylight saving time. He proposed a two-hour time shift so he’d have more after-work hours of sunshine to go bug hunting in the summer.

Hudson suggested moving clocks ahead two hours in October and then a two-hour shift back in March.

In 1905, William Willett, a British builder, suggested moving clocks ahead 20 minutes every Sunday in April and then setting them back every Sunday in September. That’s eight time changes every year!

What about here in the US?

In the United States, daylight saving time was first used in 1918 when a bill introduced the idea of a seasonal time shift. It lasted seven months before the bill was repealed.

During World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt re-established the idea of daylight saving time. It was called “War Time.”

War Time began in February 1942 and lasted until the end of September 1945.

In 1966, the Uniform Time Act of 1966 established the idea of regulating a yearly time change. Daylight saving time would begin the last Sunday in April and end the last Sunday in October.

During the 1973 oil embargo, the United States Congress ordered a year-round period of daylight saving time to save energy. The period would run from January 1974 to April 1975. The plan did little to save energy and in October 1974, the U.S. switched back to standard time.

From 1987 through 2006, daylight saving time started the first weekend in April, running through the last weekend in October.

Now you know where this wasted stupidity began and who we can blame for our confusion.

I cuss this day every year….and start my vigil waiting for a return to normal time.

But what are the benefits?

This is the propaganda to keep it…..

  1. Saving Energy. During DST, the sun sets later in the day. This means people don’t need to use as much electric lighting in the evenings. It also rises later in the morning, but that doesn’t matter because the days are so long. By the time most people get up, the sun has already risen.
  2. Preventing Traffic Accidents. The time shift means that people do more of their driving in daylight. The DOT claims this reduces the number of accidents because people can see better.
  3. Reducing Crime. Crimes are more likely to take place when it’s dark out. The change to DST means people are more likely to be out and about during daylight, when crime is less common.

I have not seen these ‘good’ reasons to keep it in my region….have you?

Then there are the side effects of DST…..

Depression. Studies in other countries show that the switch to DST can make people depressed. A German study, published in Economics Letters, found that people’s mood and life satisfaction drop for about a week after the switch. An 2008 study in Sleep and Biological Rhythms found that in Australia, suicide rates rise in the weeks following the switch to DST. A BBC News story from 2011 reports that Russian officials noted the same problem, but in the fall rather than in the spring. As a result, Russia decided to stop setting its clocks back and use DST all year.

Heart Attacks. Several studies show that the number of heart attacks rises when DST starts. For example, a 2008 study in the New England Journal of Medicine looked at heart attack rates in Sweden dating back to 1987. It found that during the first week of DST, the rate was about 5% higher than normal. A 2010 study at the University of Alabama at Birmingham found an even bigger effect: Heart attack risk increases by 10% in the first two days after the switch to DST – and then drops by 10% after the switch back in the fall.

Activity Level. Some people argue that extra daylight in the afternoon is good for our health because it encourages us to be more active. However, studies suggest this doesn’t really work. A 2014 study in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity measured the activity level of children in nine countries before and after the time change. It found that European and Australian children only increased their outdoor play time by about two minutes for each extra hour of daylight – and American children didn’t increase it at all. A 2014 study of American adults in the Journal of Physical Activity and Health also found no increase in physical activity during DST.

Lower Productivity. The loss of sleep right after the switch to DST in spring tends to make us less productive at work. A 2012 study in the Journal of Applied Pyschology shows that workers spend more time “cyberloafing” – that is, surfing the Internet instead of working – on the Monday after DST starts.

Problems for Farmers. There’s a common myth that DST was started to give farmers more hours of daylight for their work. In reality, most farmers oppose DST because it messes with their schedules. Having less light in the morning gives them less time to get their crops ready to go to the market. And for dairy farmers, it’s difficult to deliver the milk an hour early, because cows prefer to be milked at the same time each day.

Time Spent Resetting Clocks. Every time we switch to or from DST, we have to spend about 10 minutes resetting all our clocks. That’s 10 minutes we can’t devote to more productive activities. 10 minutes isn’t much, but multiply it by all the people in the country and it adds up. According to the American Enterprise Institute, just the act of changing our clocks costs our country about $2 billion a year.

Effects on Spending. There’s one group of people that DST is definitely good for: our nation’s retailers. It turns out that when people have extra daylight at the end of the work day, they’re more likely to go shopping. Businesses involved in outdoor sports, such as golf, are also happy about the time change. Michael Downing, a professor at Tufts who wrote a book on DST, says the golf industry lobbied hard for the expansion of DST back in 1986. Since it passed, the industry has been earning an extra $400 million each year.

There you have your answer…..profits…..is why this waste of time (no pun intended again) exists.

Commerce makes billions off an unpopular idea and after all that is all that counts, right?

You know Biden could end this nightmare with the stroke of a pen……but he does nothing….but then I would no expect a politician that makes millions off this in donations to do anything.

As frustrating as this issue has become….I will let Lewis Black give my feelings on ‘daylight savings time’…..

Warning:  Harsh language to come.

Have a day my friends….

Be well….Be safe….

“lego ergo scribo”