Sunday about Sunday but I needed a day away from keyboard…..

Death and destruction continues……peace talks have produced nothing as far as a solution to this conflict…..refugees have slowed somewhat…..weapons and cash stream into the region……no end in sight…..

Russian Campaign Update. The current Russian offensive appears to be over. Until significant numbers of Russian units deploy into Ukraine and the Russian logistics system is fixed the war is a stalemate. The Ukrainians can halt the Russians in the offensive operations and conduct localized offensive counterattacks. But they do not have the weapons or strength to go on a general offensive across the country. Many observers have pointed out that the Russian campaign was poorly planned and executed and that logistics has played an important role. There is another factor of why the Russian campaign has not gone well. Read more in “Communication Breakdown: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Bogged Down”, Radio Free Europe, March 19, 2022. Russian killed or wounded have been about 1,000 a day according to Western intelligence estimates.

Fight for the Skies. Neither the Russians or the Ukrainians are commanding the skies. The anti-air defenses of both countries is too strong. Russia is relying on long-range missiles launched from ground or air platforms from inside its borders. The continued supply of Stingers and other shoulder-fired MANPADs provided by the West are enhancing the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainian military. Read more in “The Russian Air Force Over Ukraine”, SOFREP, March 19, 2022.

S-300s for Ukraine (Slovakia). Several news sources say that the The Netherlands and Germany are sending their Patriot anti-missile batteries to Slovakia. One social media account noted that German Patriots were traveling on a Czech highway on Saturday (Mar 19). The Patriots are presumed to be a temporary replacement for the Slovakian S-300s that may be heading to Ukraine. These mid-range weapons will complement the short-range capabilities of the Stinger and other MANPADs.

S-400s for Ukraine (Turkey)? So will Turkey release some of its S-400 anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine? Apparently the United States has quietly floated the idea to Turkey. Wouldn’t that be a turn of events? For a number of years the Russians got a lot of play out of the fact that Turkey, a NATO member, was buying a Russian air defense system instead of opting for the U.S. made Patriot. Turkey received the first S-400s in July 2019. Of course, there will likely be something in it for Turkey. Perhaps reconsideration of involvement in the F-35 program and relief from sanctions on Turkey’s defense industry. Chances of this happening are close to zero. (Reuters, Mar 19, 2022).

Russia’s Hypersonic Missile. The Russians have claimed to use the Kinzhal hypersonic missile for the first time in the Ukraine War. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video on Saturday (Mar 19) that showed a Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile hitting a Ukrainian missile warehouse about 300 miles southwest of Kyiv. A MiG-31 launched the Kh-47M2 missile at high-speed and high-altitude at the underground missile storage facility in Delyatyn, Ukraine. Not all the information about this new development is in. Most observers say the use of the hypersonic missile was ‘a message to NATO’. “We Have Questions About Russia’s Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use in Ukraine”, The WarZone, March 19, 2022. See also “Why Calling Russia’s Kinzhal a ‘Hypersonic Missile’ is a Stretch”, Sandbox, March 19, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Belarus Railways. There are reports that Belarusian railway workers have been sabotaging the railway lines leading to Ukraine. This will further complicate the already troubled Russian logistic situation in Ukraine. The railway junctions connecting the Ukrainian and Russian railways had been blown up on February 26th.

Kyiv and Kharkiv and Rivne. The Russian assault on Kyiv appears to be on hold. The Ukrainian defense has halted the Russian advance on the capital city. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, located in the northeast of the country is still held by the Ukrainians . . . and there is no indication that the Russians will or can capture the city. Two Russian missiles hit the military training grounds of Rivne on Sunday (Mar 20), located 300 km west of Kyiv.

Russian Ultimatum for Mariupol. A demand for surrender of Mariupol has been issued to the Ukrainians. In the demand Russia said that it would only establish a humanitarian corridor if Mariupol surrenders. The answer was a firm “No”. The deadline for the surrender acceptance was Monday morning (Mar 21). There are reports that Ukrainians in the city are being taken to camps, checked for documentation, and then taken out of the city to Russia proper. Read more in “Thousands of Mariupol residents ‘forcibly’ taken to Russian camps”, New York Post, March 19, 2022. News reports continue to be published about the shelling of residential areas of the city. “Officials: Russia bombed Mariupol school housing 400”, Washington Examiner, March 20, 2022.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. See the current SITMAP (20 Mar) posted by Ukraine War Map @War_Mapper. One open-source investigative group has published an interactive map of civilian facilities destroyed by Russia in the course of its invasion of Ukraine.

Refugees and IDPs. As of March 20, over 3,500,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The situation in the cities of Mariupol and Sumy are extremely dire, with residents facing critical shortages of food, water, and medicine. Odessa, on the Black Sea Coast, is short on food for its 450,000 residents. Ukrainian refugees (in excess of 3 million) have found safety and shelter in the neighboring countries of Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. Ninety per cent of the refugees are women and children. Almost 162,000 of those that fled Ukraine are third-country nationals. Read a summary of the humanitarian crisis in a March 18, 2022 press release from the United Nations. The Ukrainian government, in concert with other organizations, are organizing ‘humanitarian corridors‘ for residents of settlements affected by the Russian invasion. On Sunday (Mar 20) only four out of seven agreed-upon humanitarian corridors were able to carry out evacuations.

Refugees in Moldova. One of Europe’s poorest nations has taken in almost 350,000 Ukrainian refugees. Many of them are fleeing from the Russian onslaught on cities in southern Ukraine near Crimea and along the coast of the Black Sea. Moldova is a small country with less than 4 million residents. Living in temporary shelters in Moldova the refugees wonder what comes next. (USA Today, Mar 20, 2022).

Russian Soldiers and a Belarus Morgue. About 60 kilometers from the Ukrainian border in Mazyr, Belarus are morgues and hospitals overflowing with dead and wounded Russian soldiers. “Morgue ‘full of Russian soldiers’ as corpses ‘shipped away at night to hide death toll’”, Mirror (UK), March 19, 2022. See also “In Belarusian Morgues and Hospitals, Clues to Russian Military Losses in Ukraine”, Radio Free Europe, March 18, 2022.

Ukrainian International Legion? A temporary visa-free regime has been established for foreigners who wish to join the Ukraine International Legion. Find out more here.

Overthrowing Putin? A group of influential Russians are looking for an opportunity to overthrow the Russian leader. According to a Facebook post from the Chief Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine a group wants to end the war, end the sanctions, and remove Putin. Of course, this all could be disinformation on the part of the Ukraine intelligence. “Russian elites planning to overthrow Putin: Ukrainian intelligence”, New York Post, March 20, 2022.

Russian Medals for Ukraine “Special Military Operation”. Apparently the Russian military was prepared for a quick success in Ukraine. One social media account says that Russia had pre-minted medals for the ‘occupation of Kiev and Lviv’ and the ‘liberation of Odessa’. Things that make you go “hmmm”.

NATO, Ukraine, and ‘Resilience’. Since the Russian invasion of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014 the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has developed the concept of resilience as a way for a small nation to deter and defeat a future invasion by Russia. This resilience is associated with the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) advanced by Special Operations Command – Europe (SOCEUR) and other NATO countries. Julian Reid, a professor of International Relations at the University of Lapland, Finland, informs us that “Ukraine is proving to be a laboratory for the testing of resilience as a strategy of national defence.” He notes that proponents of resilience in NATO will be encouraged; however, it will also make society itself into a more direct agent of war . . . and therefore a target in a war. “Resilient Ukraine and the Future of War in Europe”, E-International Relations, March 17, 2022.

Urban Myths of Ukraine War. Stories like the one about the 13 Coast Guard members who were killed on Snake Island in the Black Sea rather than surrender to a Russian warship or of a Ukrainian air force pilot who continues to knock Russian jets out of the sky over Kyiv are inspiring. The tale of a heroic Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot who shot down six Russian fighters in a single day over the capital city in the early days of the war got bigger when, days later, he was reported to have shot down four more Russian jets. Do these stories have to be true? Not necessarily. Are they helpful to Ukraine’s cause? Yes, Ukrainians need hope. “The Ghost of Kyiv and the Urban Myths of Warfare”, Clearance Jobs, March 11, 2022.

Paper – Mis & Disinformation: Handling the 21st Century Challenge in the Humanitarian Sector, Digital Humanitarian Network , February 2022, 26 pages. View here.

Cyber, IO, and Intel Sharing. During testimony before the House Armed Services Committee on Thursday (Mar 17) the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency described the intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine as revolutionary. The head of the National Security Agency testified that there has never been a better sharing of accurate, timely and actionable intelligence about Ukraine. Much of this intelligence is quickly employed to discount the information warfare activities of Russia and to defend against its cyber attacks. Much more information was briefed to the House during a follow-on classified hearing. “Intel Sharing Between U.S. and Ukraine ‘Revolutionary’ Says DIA Director”, USNI News, March 18, 2022.

Podcast – Russian Cyber and Info Ops. Russia had enjoyed a reputation of being a formidable foe in the IO and cyber arena. However, some skillful defensive measures by Ukraine has blunted the effectiveness of the the Russian attempts both before and during the invasion. “Gray Zone, Twilight Zone or Danger Zone? Russian Cyber and Information Operations in Ukraine”, War on the Rocks, March 18, 2022, 37 minutes.

Video – Volunteers and Safe Passage Out of Ukraine. How do people find safe passage out of Ukraine during Russia’s War? BBC News, YouTube, March 19, 2022, 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G52FIQmCziY

Russia – Impact of Sanctions and Trade Actions. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the United States and other nations around the world imposed financial sanctions and trade actions. There is a move in Congress to revoke Russia’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status. There is the possibility of action to be taken by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Read a summary of these different punitive measures that includes the background, impact on imports from removing PNTR, and various issues associated with WTO actions. Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s Trade Status, Tariffs, and WTO Issues, Congressional Research Service, CRS IN11881, March 18, 2022, PDF, 4 pages.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11881

Boost Military Assistance. Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, says that Ukrainians will ultimately defeat Putin’s army. But there are some questions. How long will it take and how many Ukrainians will have to die? McFaul argues more weapons and more sanctions are needed immediately. “Why the West must boost military assistance to Ukraine”, The Washington Post, March 16, 2022.

Ukraine – Validating USMC’s Force Design 2030. Christopher Corrow, a strategy analyst in the Headquarters of the Marine Corps and OIF veteran, says that the Marine Corps Force Design 2030 is a necessary change that positions the Marine Corps as a unique and necessary element of U.S. military power. This move to the future by the USMC saw the divestment of much of its tank force and some of its short-range fire support. “The Russian Losses in Ukraine Validate the Marine Corp’s Force Design”, National Review, March 18, 2022.

For Russia – Is Ukraine Enough? NATO is busy reinvigorating itself against an enemy it thought had gone away. Many feel that Russia will stop with acquiring parts of Ukraine. But others fear that the invasion of Ukraine is only the beginning. The Baltic states are vulnerable from land and sea. Will NATO defend them? “Russia may not stop with Ukraine – NATO looks to its weakest link”, Reuters, March 21, 2022.

More Nukes in the World? In 1994, Ukraine agreed to destroy the nuclear stockpile, the world’s third largest, it inherited from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It did this in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Without NATO membership and its own nuclear weapons, it was unable to deter Russia from invading. Our nations are taking notice. “Will Putin’s war force more medium-sized states to seek nuclear weapons?”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), March 21, 2022.

Putin – Making NATO Great Again. General (Ret.) David Petraeus was interviewed by Peter Bergen last week. Bergen is a national security analyst with CNN. The retired general and former CIA director says that the war “has played out in its first three weeks.” He believes it will become a conflict of urban warfare which will generally favor the Ukrainians. The Russians are unlikely to take the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Instead of weakening NATO, Putin has unified it and made it stronger. “Russian forces ‘clearly have very poor standards,’ General Petraeus says”, MSN.com, March 19, 2022.

Putin’s War and Africa. Russia has received some support from a few African nations. Most African governments, however, appear wary of becoming embroiled in the conflict and many are discouraging their citizens from joining the fight – whether to support Russia or Ukraine. “African Reactions to Russia’s Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine”, IntelBrief, The Soufan Center, March 21, 2022.

Post-War Europe. The European backlash against Russia will likely endure even as hostilities cease. RAND Corporation’s Raphael Cohen examines the longer-term implications for Europe, assessing how it will affect European energy policy, military preparedness, and overall unity. “Europe After the Ukraine War”, Lawfare, March 20, 2022.

And the beat goes on……

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My continuing series to highlight the daily struggle of the Ukrainian people against the forces of ‘Vlad the Invader’….

Russian Campaign Update. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said (Mar 17) that President Putin “may be growing more desperate” as Ukraine mounts fierce resistance to the invasion and the Russian offense is stalled. He believes Russia is using its propaganda to develop the narrative of Ukraine planning to use biological or chemical weapons. It is believed that this would lay the groundwork for Russia to employ these weapons but blame Ukraine. The invasion has been costly to the Russians, with an estimated 7,000 soldiers killed. Ukrainian military losses are said to be around 1,300. Russian troop morale has plummeted. The supply problems persist – shortage of food, fuel, and ammunition.

Air and Sea. Russian missiles have struck a number of targets across eastern Ukraine. Kyiv and Kharkiv are experiencing periodic shelling by the Russians. It is estimated (U.S. DoD) that over 1,080 missiles have been fired at Ukraine since the start of the invasion. There are reports that Germany and the Netherlands will provide Patriot anti-air missile defense systems to Slovakia; who will provide their S-300 anti-air defense systems to Ukraine. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa to land a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Battle for the Cities. The capital city of Ukraine is experiencing shelling but the Russians do not seem to be making much headway in getting closer to the city center. To the west of Kviv and near Brovary (under Ukrainian control) the Russians are digging trenches and defensive positions. The second largest city of Ukraine, Kharkiv, is located in the northeast of the country and has been under attack for weeks. The Ukrainians have mounted limited counterattacks in the Kyiv, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Mykolayiv areas. An aid convoy reached the besieged city of Sumy near the northeast border area.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. About 130 residents have been rescued from a Mariupol theater where up to a thousand sought safety from Russian shelling. Hundreds remained trapped in the rubble and are feared dead. 80% of the city has been destroyed by shelling.

Mykolayiv. Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack in the vicinity of Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea. Without significant reinforcements, it is doubtful that the Russians can advance towards Odessa, located on the Black Sea west of Mykolayiv.

Lviv. This western city has been relatively untouched by the war . . . when compared to cities in eastern Ukraine. It has been a haven for thousands of internally displaced people (IDPs). Many Ukrainians are arriving in Lviv and staying 4 to 5 nights before departing for the border. The city receives about 10,000 people daily and there are no available rooms in hostels, hotel, or apartments to rent.

Refugees. As of March 18, over 3,200,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The United Nations Migration Agency says that 6.5 million Ukrainians are internally displaced. The Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report for March 18 has been posted by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) has released a report entitled Humanitarian and Refugee Crisis in Ukraine, PDF, 4 pages, 18 March 2022.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War. MilitaryLand provides a daily situation update as well as detailed maps of each of the conflict zones in Ukraine. @JominiW provides his detailed SITMAP as well.

Biden Warns China. On Friday (Mar 18) President Biden threatened China with “consequences” if it aids Russia. In a two hour long phone call with Xi Jinping, the president detailed possible U.S. responses should Beijing provide support and assistance to Russia. It is likely that some of these responses would include sanctions on China.

U.S. Weapons to Ukraine. On Wednesday, March 15, 2022, the White House released a statement listing the weapons provided to Ukraine. Since the start of the Biden administration over a year ago about $2 billion in security assistance has been provided to Ukraine. Some of the direct weapons transfers include 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, almost 11,000 anti-armor systems, five Mi-17 helicopters, three patrol boats, satellite imagery and analysis capabilities, and other weapons. “Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine”, The White House, March 16, 2022. One weapon to be provided to Ukraine includes small, one-time use drones recently adopted by U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF). Read about it in “U.S. Adds “Kamiakaze Drones” as More Weapons Flow to Ukraine”, Lobo Institute, March 18, 2022.

Russia’s Shadow Warriors. Wagner Group mercenaries have been battle-hardened in Syria, Libya, Central Africa Republic, and Donbas. They are Putin’s de facto private army loosely associated with Russia’s GRU. They are now, according to some press reports, hunting for the President of Ukraine. “The shadow warriors deployed to kill Zelensky”, Asia Times, March 19, 2022.

Tanks Without Infantry = Failure. There aren’t enough Russian infantry units in Ukraine. Many Russian tanks are in combat without infantry support and traveling down roads with no flank security. This lack of foot soldiers, usually found in motorized rifle regiments, means that Russian maneuver capabilities are limited. A tank’s armor is up front, not on the sides or in the rear. Infantrymen protect a tank’s sides and rear; but in their absence the tanks are vulnerable to ambush by the enemy from anti-armor weapons like the Javelin, NLAW, and others. Tanks in combat are ‘buttoned-up’ with limited visibility. David Axe provides the details: “In Ukraine, Russian Tanks Are Fighting Without the Protection of Infantry”, Forbes, March 15, 2022.

Bread Prices Rise Worldwide. Russia and Ukraine provide 30% of the world’s wheat. The Ukraine War is affecting the food supply worldwide and bread prices are going up. The United Nation’s World Food Program (WFP) says that poorer countries will be most affected by the shortage of wheat.

Russian Astronauts. Apparently three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station on Friday (Mar 18) in flight suits made in yellow and blue, seeming close to the colors of the Ukrainian flag. They are on board the ISS for a six-month long stay, joining the crew of two Russians, four Americans, and one German. Where their standard-issue blue uniforms are is unknown at this time. “Russian cosmonauts arrive at ISS in colours of Ukrainian flag”, The Times, March 19, 2022.

Rough Start for Foreign Legion? Andrew Milburn, a retired Marine Corps officer who served with MARSOC, is now on assignment in Ukraine for Task & Purpose. He writes about his initial impression of the ‘internationals’ who are joining the Ukrainian’s unit for foreigners. His first impression is mixed. “Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia”, Task & Purpose, March 18, 2022.

Escaping the Russians – and Crowdsourcing. Volunteer groups have formed up to provide a way out of the cities currently being bombed and shelled by the Russians and on the verge of capture. Volunteers in Ukraine and abroad are coordinating rides from eastern Ukraine cities to western Ukraine and beyond into neighboring countries on buses, private vehicles, and in taxis. “Ukraine: How crowdsourcing is rescuing people from the war zone”, BBC News, March 19, 2022.

House votes on Trade with Russia. The U.S. House of Representatives voted to suspend normal trade operations with Russia. In a vote of 424 to 8, the representatives voted to strip Russia of preferential trade status and impose higher tariffs. Eight members of the Republican party voted in opposition to the bill.

Ukrainian Women Standing Strong. Some 32,000 women who belonged to the Ukrainian defense forces before the Russian invasion are now patrolling checkpoints and on the front lines. Many more women have joined the country’s armed forces since the invasion. “Ukrainian women stand strong against Russian invaders”, The Washington Post, March 18, 2022.

Pravda Propaganda – and 3 NG Members KIA. The Russian media outlet reported that three members of the Tennessee National Guard died while fighting in Donbas, Ukraine. The news outlet called them U.S. ‘mercenaries’. They listed the names of three current or former members of the 278th Armored Cavalry Regiment who served during a 2018 training mission in Ukraine. The National Guard says the three individuals are accounted for, not in Ukraine, and are alive. (Military Times, Mar 17, 2022)

How Ukraine Wins. Timothy Garton Ash expects Ukraine to suffer through a Russian campaign of long-distance bombardment and siege. But he describes how Ukraine can win the war. “How Ukraine can win”, The Spectator, March 19, 2022.

Website – “Center for National Resistance”. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) announced the creation of an official website for the “Center for National Resistance”. The center will support and coordinate those who are fighting for the liberation of Russian occupied territory. It provides guidance on urban warfare and insurgent activities. The website will be run by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces. It is in Ukrainian with an English option.
https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/

U.S. Assistance to Insurgency – Vital. Christopher Costa, currently the executive director of the International Spy Museum, is a former career intelligence officer. He argues that the United States needs to start now to help setup the Ukrainian resistance to fight the occupation of the Russians. “The US must help the resistance wage the ‘other war’ in Ukraine”, The Hill Opinion, March 15, 2022.

The conflict is set to be more violent and more chaotic in the coming days and weeks….I will be watching…..

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

We are close in on one month of this conflict and it appears that, according to the news outlets, Russian is resorting to punishing the civilian population as they move on (slow as the move is)…….

Today’s update SOF News…..

Russian Campaign Update. The Russian offensive has, for the most part, taken a temporary break. One cause for this appears to be constant counterattacks that keep the Russians off balance and the interdiction of resupply lines that interrupt the flow of fuel, food, and ammunition. There were small advances attempted in a few locations.

Belarus. The Russians used the country to the north of Ukraine as a staging area for the invasion forces. It continues to transit supplies and personnel south across the Belarus border. Air strikes and missile launches are coming from Belarus as well. The Russian dead and wounded are moved north into Belarus and then on to Russia. Belarus troops have not yet joined the fight. There are concerns that Russian and / or Belarus units in Brest (southwest Belarus) could strike south across the border to interdict the east – west supply lines of communications (train and vehicle) in western Ukraine.

Fight for the Skies. The Russians have launched over 1,000 missiles into Ukraine – most from Russia and some from within Ukraine air space. The Russians have still not attained air superiority. The Ukrainians continue to press for a no-fly zone and for fighter jets. They are receiving record numbers of shoulder-fired ground to air missiles that are effective up to 11,000 feet.

S-300. The Ukrainians are hopeful that some more sophisticated weapons like the S-300 air defense system (see photo above) will be provided by some East European nations (Slovakia?). Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Slovakia on Thursday (Mar 17) and Slovakia’s S-300s was a topic of conversation. Slovakia will pass its S-300s to Ukraine if they are backfilled with air defense weapons from the United States.

No Fly Zone. During his speech to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday (Mar 16) the Ukrainian president made a plea for NATO to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Administration officials cite the dangers of starting a larger war, one with an adversary with nuclear weapons, as the main reason for not establishing a no-fly zone. Raphael S. Cohen argues that we shouldn’t rule it out completely in “Why It Could be a Strategic Mistake to Rule Out a No-Fly Zone Policy”, RAND Corporation, March 16, 2022.

Deadly Ukraine Skies. The Russian Air Force (VKS) is simply never meant to fight the way Western air forces do. It isn’t just the Stinger, Igla, and other air defense weapons systems that threaten Russian pilots. A dangerous combination of doctrine, training, and equipment are also partly to blame for the heavy losses of the VKS. Many of the Russian air support strikes for its ground troops are conducted at low levels – leaving them exposed to the numerous MANPADs available to the Ukraine military. There are other factors at play – one is the ‘supportive role’ of the VKS in a military campaign – it isn’t designed to attain ‘air supremacy’. Another factor is the type of bombs the Russians have – they have more ‘dumb’ bombs than ‘smart’ bombs. This means they have to fly at lower altitudes for accuracy and they can’t launch many standoff weapons due to a lack of targeting pods. “Why the skies over Ukraine have proven so deadly for Russian pilots”, by David Roza, Task & Purpose, March 17, 2022.

Maritime Activities. An amphibious landing force on several ships is still positioned in the Black Sea off the coast of Odessa. There is the possibility of a future landing of a substantial element of Russian naval infantry. The Russian blockade of Ukrainian shipping continues.

Ukrainian Defense (and Offense). Ukraine officials say that over 320,000 Ukrainians have returned to their home country. Most of them are men. The Ukrainian military launched a number of counteroffensives against Russian positions in the vicinity of Kyiv – principally in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha, and Hostomel. A Ukrainian offensive is also taking place in the vicinity of Kherson – currently held by the Russians.

Missile Strikes on Lviv. A location near the Lviv International Airport has been bombed. Reports say several Russian cruise missiles struck a nearby aircraft repair facility in the western city of Lviv on Friday morning (Mar 18). Some reports say there were 6 cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea.

Kyiv. The capital city of Ukraine is considered the primary objective of the Russians. The Capture of Kyiv would allow Russia to put in place its puppet government. Other than some shelling, the city itself is not under attack. Lines of communication with the rest of the country are still intact from the southerly direction. The main avenue of attack on Kyiv remains from the north and northwest – one that is about 15 kilometers from the city center. The attack from the east is stalled and is about 30 kilometers from the city center. To the east the major town of Brovary remains in Ukrainian hands.

Kharkiv. The second largest city of Ukraine is Kharkiv located in the northeast of the country. It is constantly under artillery, rocket, and missile attack. The Ukrainian forces continue to hold the city. Many believe the Russians are trying to demoralize the city’s inhabitants with the indiscriminate shelling on residential areas.

Mariupol. Located on the Sea of Azov, the coastal city of Mariupol is under siege by the Russians. This city is situated along the coastal road network that would provide Russia with a land bridge between Russia and the Crimea. The Russians struck a theater where hundreds of women and children were seeking shelter. Authorities say that 130 survivors have been recovered from the wreckage and that recovery efforts are continuing. Some reports say that between 500 to 1,000 people had been sheltered in the theater. The city is encircled and has been cut off from electricity, water, gas, mobile networks, food, and medical supplies. It is being shelled every day. Up to 80 per cent of the residential buildings have been destroyed.

Mykolayiv. Located on the west bank of the Dnieper River close to the coast of the Black Sea, Mykolayiv is a strategic objective for the Russians that is on the road to Odessa located further west along the coast of the Black Sea.

Situation Maps.  War in Ukraine by Scribble Maps. Read an assessment and view a map of the Russian offensive campaign by the Institute for the Study of War.

Biden and China. President Biden is expected to speak with President Xi on Friday (Mar 18). The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the message from Biden is that China should not support Russia. The conversation will also touch on competition between the two countries as well as other issues of mutual concern. Putin’s war in Ukraine has negative and positive consequences for the rulers in Beijing. “Beijing’s goals and Putin’s war are meshing in nasty ways”, The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Initiative (ASPI), March 18, 2022.

Switchblade Drones. A drone recently developed by the United States and used by U.S. special operations forces is being sent to Ukraine. One hundred of the Switchblade drones are being sent, with the possibility of more in the future. Costing about $6,000 a piece, they are able to be carried in a backpack and flown by an operator to its target. The drone comes with a warhead and used by crashing into the target.

Super Yachts. A number of big yachts owned by rich Russians are being seized around the world. The most recent one is a 443-foot yacht worth $600 million taken by Spain. It is part of a crackdown on oligarchs that support Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.

Insurgency Scenarios. Prior to the February 24th invasion there was a lot of speculation on how the conflict would end. Most national security observers noted that the Russians would score a quick win, seizing most or all of Ukraine. Some went on to describe different types of insurgencies that might take place in the aftermath of the war. Emily Harding is one who analyzed ‘the future’. Read her thoughts on the topic in “Scenario Analysis on a Ukrainian Insurgency”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 15, 2022.

IO – a Decisive Role. Russian has locked down access to almost all social media platforms, to include Facebook and Twitter. It has also blocked access to news media like Radio Free Europe and some independent Russian news services. It has passed laws that criminalize the spreading of “fake news” with up to 15 years in prison. However, Ukraine and the west can fight back in the information operations arena. “Keeping Russians Informed about Ukraine Could Help End This War”, The RAND Blog, March 14, 2022.

Humanitarian Effort in Ukraine. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, United Nations agencies and other international organizations had a limited presence in the country. There were about 34 international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and nine UN agencies in the country prior to February 24th, most of them in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Now they are busy establishing and scaling up humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Learn how the NGOs and UN agencies are regrouping and now providing assistance. “In Ukraine, building an emergency aid response (almost) from scratch“, The New Humanitarian, March 17, 2022.

Refugees. As of March 18, over 3,000,000 refugees have left Ukraine according to data provided by the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR). The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has published its March 17 Situation Report (PDF, 9 pages).

Women Fighters in Ukraine. Most media coverage of women in Ukraine falls into three different stereotypes. The peacemaker, the victim, and the pseudo-soldier. “The Mystique of the Female Soldier: Portrayals of Ukrainian Women in Western Media”, by Sarah Keisler, Georgetown Security Studies Review, March 15, 2022.

More to come…stay tuned…..

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