The news to help understand Day 5 of the Ukraine/Russia mash-up.

Curated news, analysis, and commentary on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Information on Russian offensive operations, Ukrainian defense, NATO response, aid to Ukraine, and the humanitarian issues associated with the conflict.

BLUF: The Russian offensive has stalled, for now. The advanced formations have outrun the supply and logistical convoys. The forward units are lacking food, ammunition, and fuel. The Ukrainian forces are fighting fiercely, making this a costly campaign for the Russians. The Ukrainian Air Force is still taking to the air and the Ukrainian air defense system is still operational, although both have been degraded. NATO is assisting with intelligence and providing weapons, supplies, and munitions. The international community has implemented economic and other types of sanctions against Russia. Russian nuclear forces were put on a higher state of alert.

Russian Offensive. The pace of the invasion has slowed down with the Russians taking an operational pause in some areas to allow reinforcements, supplies, and fuel to catch up with the forward units. It is expected that the Russian advance will resume on many fronts with heavy fighting taking place in different cities and regions. Offensive operations against Kyiv may resume in the next 24 hours. The Russians are conducting operations to capture the city of Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine and Mariupol along the Sea of Azov. A frustrated Russian military may soon resort to greater use of its multiple launcher rocket systems and artillery – which would be devastating in areas with a large civilian population.

A Closer Look. A number of military analysts have taken the opportunity to pontificate on the Russians lack of success on the battlefield. Mark Antonio Wright does this in his article “Why the Russians are Struggling”, National Review, February 26, 2022.

Crimea Axis of Advance. The Russians are having some success in the Crimea ‘axis’ of attack. A worry for the Ukrainians is if this success from the south results in a pincer movement that would isolate the Ukrainian forces in the east from the rest of the country. Early reports on Monday indicate that Russian forces have crossed the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine and are advancing north of Nova Kakhovka.

Russian Casualties. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense provides data on Russian casualties each day. As of the morning of February 28 Russia has lost 816 APCs, 191 tanks, 60 fuel trucks, 29 planes, 29 helicopters, 74 artillery pieces, 21 Grad rocket launchers, 2 naval vessels, 3 drones, and 1 Buk missile system. There have been 5,300 personnel casualties.

Missile Strikes and Rocket Attacks. The Russians continue to conduct missile strikes on selected targets throughout Ukraine. The UKR MoD stated that Russian missiles launched from Belarus struck the Zhytomyr Airport in northwest Ukraine on Monday (Feb 28). One type of missiles that the Russians are using from Belarus is the Iskander ballistic missile system. In the past 24 hours the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine has experienced attacks by multiple launcher rocket systems. Rocket systems are not only found in the Russian army. Western armies have them as well – one example is the United Kingdom’s M270 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS).

Russian SOF. Working in the interior of the country are Russian Spetsnaz units conducting a variety of special operations missions. There are reports that they are doing deep reconnaissance, sabotage, and other missions. One social media report says the Russian SOF are installing fluorescent beacons to help orient tactical aircraft in flying routes and finding targets.

Odessa Assault? A prize capture for the Russians would be the Black Sea port of Odessa. There is a Ukrainian naval base there and the city sits on the east-west coastal road along the Black Sea. OSINT reports indicate that a morning assault will take place on Monday (Feb 28).

Ukraine Defense. The Ukrainians continue to put up a stiff resistance to the Russian invasion. The citizenry has mobilized and some are undergoing a quick train up with newly issued weapons and equipment. The Ukrainians appear to be using the equipment they have to good use. This includes the anti-armor weapons and air defense weapons. Of note are Turkish drones that are being used to hit Russian targets and conduct reconnaissance.

High Morale. The country’s leader has the world riveted on how he is leading from the front – and he is being referred to as the Lion of Kyiv. The ability to deny the Russians a quick victory has hardened the resolve of the Ukrainians, over 50,000 military reservists and 50,000 Territorial Defense volunteers have been mobilized in the past two days. The stiff Ukrainian defense has prompted the west to step up with lethal aid. At the same time the country is looking for some additional help from Europe and the United States. It is also willing to accept help from individuals who want to go to Ukraine and fight the Russians. “Want to go fight for Ukraine? Here’s what to do.”, Military Times, February 27, 2022. Some social media accounts say that Ukrainian members of the French Foreign Legion will leave the French service to return home to fight the Russians.

The Cyber War. The Russians are doing their best to downgrade the communications and internet capabilities of Ukraine. Social media reports say that the websites and email servers of Ukrainian embassies and consulates around the world have been disrupted. Hackers from Belarus are helping the Russians out in this effort. NATO countries, for the most part, are putting up cyber ‘defensive shields’. They may also be engaging in offensive cyber operations. Read more in “Poland Army adds new cyber component with offensive capabilities”, The Record, February 8, 2022.

Social and News Media. Social media platforms usually try to stay neutral in conflicts, but Russia’s blatant aggression is hard to ignore. Google has temporarily disabled two features of Google Maps for Ukraine. One is live traffic data and the other is Live Busyness. Google says the change was made to keep Ukrainians safe. Facebook has pulled the ad feature from many Russian FB accounts. The European Union has banned Russia Today and Sputnik, the two biggest propaganda news outlets for Russia. Digital media will likely play a big role in this conflict and could mobilize public discontent on the home front in Russia. There is a lot of open source intelligence (or information) OSINT being produced by a variety of actors. Some of this OSINT relies on satellite imagery from commercial satellites that was previously only available to governments.

Negotiations? Ukrainian and Russian officials may be meeting on Monday morning (Feb 28) on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. U.S. officials are skeptical of Russia’s intentions and believe it is just a ploy. The Ukrainian president says that taking part in the negotiations will likely not produce anything but they cannot be ignored in case there is a prospect for a cessation of hostilities. The main goal of the negotiations for Ukraine is an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. “Ukraine and Russia to meet on Belarusian border for talks”, Washington Examiner, February 27, 2022.

EU Response. The European Foreign Ministers held a press conference after an extraordinary meeting on Sunday (Feb 27). The EU will be sending $450 million in lethal equipment to Ukraine. Poland is likely to serve as a logistics hub as it shares a long border with Ukraine. European airspace is closing down for Russian aircraft. The financial markets of Russia are being hit hard with sanctions and other punitive measures. There is concern for how Putin will respond to these sanctions, certainly he has methods of his own to strike back. Most countries in the world have come out with strong support for Ukraine. At a recent United Nations Security Council vote on a resolution about the conflict China, predictably, did not condemn the attack. Surprising some UN observers was the abstaining during the vote of India and the United Arab Emirates. President Zelensky has called for the European Union to grant it immediate membership.

NATO Response. The U.S. and other nations are keeping tabs on the military situation on the ground – and likely sending updates to Ukraine. The Global Hawk drone and JSTARS aircraft are just a few that have been in the region ‘looking in’ on things. The British have dispatched some of their RAF Typhoons to patrol NATO airspace over Poland and Romania. Prior to the invasion there were U.S. special operations forces in Ukraine working with elite Ukrainian units to enhance their special operations forces capability. It would be interesting to know what the U.S. SOF role is now? Perhaps a little remote advise and assist (RAA) is going on?

Fighter Jets for Ukraine? There are some news reports that say the EU will be sending fighter planes to Ukraine; but the news may not be entirely correct. While speculation continues on whether this will happen, Joseph Trevithick writes on how it could happen. Read “Here Are The Options for the EU’s Initiative to Restock Ukraine with Fighter Jets”, The Drive, February 27, 2022. See also “Can Ukraine Really Use Donated Fighter Jets? That Depends”, Defense One, February 27, 2022.

Currency. The ruble is taking a nose dive in the currency market and ATMs in Russia have gone dry. By early Monday morning it had dropped 43% in value versus the dollar. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) will not open until Monday afternoon Moscow time.

Belarus. The country to the north of Ukraine has decided to give up non-nuclear status by voting a change to its constitution. The referendum on Sunday (Feb 27) approved a new constitution that did away with the the country’s non-nuclear status. This will allow it to host Russian nuclear weapons. Belarus is also reported to be sending paratroopers and special operations forces into Ukraine, possibly as early as Monday (Feb 28).

And Religion? As if the Ukraine conflict wasn’t complicated enough . . . now religion may be playing a role. There is a split in the Orthodox Church and it could get a little worse with the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. “How is Russia-Ukraine war linked to religion?“, by Peter Smith, AP News, February 27, 2022.

Nuclear Threats by Putin. On Sunday (Feb 27) Putin put Russia’s nuclear forces on a higher alert. This occurred on the same day that the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, has been fired – according to some news accounts. Some observers are a little nervous about Putin’s mental condition. Others are starting to read up on Russia’s nuclear capability and deterrence policy.

Regional Topics. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, other nations in eastern and northern Europe are on edge. Are they one of the next Russian targets? There is a lot of academic study on this topic. A recent report was done by Center for European Policy Analysis and sponsored by General Atomics and the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Estonia. Read Close to the Wind: Recommendations for Baltic Sea Regional Security, CEPA, February 16, 2022. Poland has rapidly become a linchpin of U.S. military plans in Europe.

Societal Resiliency. The Ukrainian crisis has prompted renewed interest in methods and strategies for countering hybrid warfare – a favorite strategy of Russia to attain its political goals. NATO nations (and others) are developing methods to counter the hybrid warfare used by Russia. A recent publication explores this topic in depth. “Countering Hybrid Warfare: Mapping Social Contracts to Reinforce Societal Resiliency in Estonia and Beyond”, Texas National Security Review, Spring 2022, PDF, 22 pages. Read also “Not Your Grandfather’s Resistance: The Unavoidable Truths about Small State’s Best Defense Against Aggression”, by Sandor Fabian, Modern War Institute at West Point, September 29, 2021.

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This is a short synopsis of the major events that took place on Day 4 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine……thanx to SOF News……

There is something for everyone regardless of your interests.

A news update about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO response, humanitarian crisis, and Ukrainian resistance. Covers the 24-hour period ending 0600R27FEB22.

BLUF. The speed of the Russian offensive has slowed – likely because of unexpectedly fierce Ukrainian resistance and some Russian logistical problems. The tanks and armored personnel carriers are likely hurting for spare parts and fuel. Special operations forces are taking part in overnight clashes and operations each night around strategic targets. The primary military objective remains the capital of the country and decapitation of the civilian leadership. The world has rallied to Ukraine yet refrains from the use of military forces within Ukraine. Although a ‘no fly zone’ would be a huge factor if announced and enforced by NATO there is little chance of that happening. Although facing a stiff resistance by the Ukrainians the Russian may ultimately prevail due to sheer numbers of troops, tanks, and aircraft.

Three Regions of Advance. The Russians continue to slowly advance from Russian-occupied Crimea, Belarus, and from Russia on the Ukraine northeastern border. The forces coming from Belarus are heading south to Kyiv. The forces advancing from the northeast and Crimea may be pincer movements to cut off the Ukrainian forces fighting in the east of Ukraine. The Ukrainians may have to cede territory and pull back the forces in eastern Ukraine before their lines of communication that run east west are severed. In addition, the Russians conducted a large scale amphibious operation from the Sea of Azov in the vicinity of the coastal city of Mariupol. The S2 Underground YouTube channel has an update on the axis of advances of Russian forces in Ukraine (26 Feb). The Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map is an open, crowd-sourced online mapping utility that can help track incidents and activity in Ukraine.

Russian Troop Numbers. According to a recent U.S. Department of Defense news release on February 26, the Russians have more than 150,000 troops arrayed against Ukraine, with most of them in the country. Over the past 24 hours the Russians have conducted more than 250 missile launches, mostly short-range ballistic missiles. Some civilian infrastructure and residential areas have been hit by these missile strikes.

Battle for Kyiv. The Russians hope to capture the Ukrainian capital soon. It was thought that the Russians would go for Kyiv on Friday night (27 Feb) but apparently its forces were still getting into position, the logistics train was playing catchup, and reinforcements were still arriving in the area. A sizeable Russian forces of troops and tanks is located just north of the city, less than 6 miles from Kyiv’s Parliament and the city center. In addition, Russian forces have cut off the city from the west, presumably with VDV forces from Belarus and that have been moved by air. However by dawn the capital had yet to be fully encircled. ‘Irregular Russian forces’ have continued to fight Ukrainian defenders within the city of Kyiv – but the fighting seems to be at a lower intensity. An oil depot on the outskirts of Kyiv had been hit and was on fire. Saturday night into Sunday morning was another night of sirens and missile explosions.

Avoiding the Cities? Combat in an urban environment is tough, especially for a force that relies on airpower, tanks, and artillery. The use of these highly lethal and mobile weapons systems is constrained in a city environment filled with thousands and thousands of civilians. Defensive tactics in an urban warfare situation can bog down an offensive operation by an attacking force. The Russians appear to be bypassing the big Ukrainian cities – leaving just enough forces to encircle and isolate them. This is most likely a good strategy for the Russians for now. Read more about fighting in cities in an analysis by Dr. John P. Sullivan entitled “Assessing Urban Terrain Features for Dense Urban Environments”, Homeland Security, February 11, 2022. See also “Urban Warfare: A Practitioners Annotated Bibliography”, Australian Army Research Centre.

Chernihiv Bypassed. The Ukrainian city of Chernihiv located in the north of Ukraine near the Belarus border has put up a strong defense. Russian forces are bypassing the city and likely moving south to take part in the encirclement and isolation of Kyiv.

Kharkiv Under Attack. The northeast city of Kharkiv is located just across from the Russia border. This city of about 1.5 million people is now under siege. As of early Sunday (Feb 27) there was heavy street fighting and many residents were seeking safety in bomb shelters and in the underground metro. The opposing forces are exchanging heavy volumes of rocket artillery fire. As of mid-day Sunday the Russian assault of the city has been halted by Ukrainian defenders. Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine. The city is populated mainly by Ukrainians (63%) with a significant number of Russians (33%).

Russian SOF. There are reports that Russian special operations forces are attempting to kill or capture the Ukrainian president. Russian SOF have a ‘kill list’ of leading Ukrainian government leaders that they are targeting. The offer by the United States for an evacuation from Kyiv for the Ukrainian president have been rebuffed. It seems he has said: “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.” “Russian special forces have entered Kyiv to hunt down Ukraine’s leaders, says Volodymyr Zelensky”, inews.co.uk, February 25, 2022.

Russian Casualties. The rapid advance of the Russian ground forces has slowed. Reaction on the home front has been mixed, with protests occurring in the major cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russia has always attempted to hide the number of casualties in past conflicts (Chechnya, Syria, and others) and refuses to comment on fatalities. “Ukraine invasion: Russian forces have mobile crematorium that can ‘evaporate’ soldiers killed in attacks”, Fox News, February 25, 2022.

Ukrainian Defense. The air defenses of Ukraine, including aircraft, continue to operate, engage, and deny access to Russian aircraft in some parts of the country. The Ukrainians have held the major cities; although, in most cases the Russians have bypassed them. The coastal city of Mariupol is under attack but appears to be offering stiff resistance to the Russians.

Ukrainian Civilian Resistance. The Ukrainian military has fought exceptionally well in the face of superior numbers of Russian troops, tanks, artillery, and aircraft. This unexpected high level of resistance has slowed the Russian onslaught. Ukrainian civilians are assisting where they can – placing obstacles in city roads, tearing down street signs, and taking up weapons issued by the Ukrainian government. Members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces have been conducting weekend training sessions for months in preparation to help defend the country from the Russians. “Weapons to anyone: Across Ukraine, militias form as Russian forces near”, The Washington Post, February 26, 2022. Residents in Dnipro, Ukrainians are preparing Molotov cocktails in preparation for advancing Russian troops. Read more on how civilian volunteers and paramilitary groups are taking the fight to the Russian army in “Everybody in Our Country Needs to Defend”, The New York Times, February 26, 2022.

Belarus. The Department of State has issued a travel advisory for Belarus, advising U.S. citizens not to travel to Belarus and urging them to depart the country immediately. Currently Minsk airport and Belarusian land border points are open but could change without significant notice. U.S. citizens should avoid public demonstrations as potential harassment targeted specifically at foreigners is possible. The security situation in Belarus could become critical. The country has been a staging area for Russian troops invading Ukraine. There are reports on social media that Belarus special operations forces will soon take part in the Ukraine invasion.

Russian Misinformation. The Kremlin has four distinct audiences that it seeks to manipulate through falsehoods with regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are the domestic Russian audience, audiences inside Ukraine, audiences in the former Soviet republics, and audiences in Western Europe and the United States. For many years the Russian media has conveyed a false image of military prowess. Observers need to look at Russia’s real military capabilities with objective eyes to get past the illusion painted by the Russian propaganda.

Cyber Wars. The Russians have long used the interruption of internet services prior to and during an attack against an opponent. Ukraine is no exception and daily cyber attacks are taking place against Ukraine’s internet services. Elon Musk’s firm is turning on mini-satellites to provide internet service to Ukraine. In order to connect to the internet, users need a Starlink kit, which includes a router – and a clear view of the sky. “Elon musk deploys SpaceX’s Starlink Internet satellites over Ukraine after request from vice PM”, EuroNews, February 27, 2022. A Canadian intelligence agency has called for ramped up cyber defenses citing increased cyber threat activity.

“Friends From Abroad”. It seems that Ukrainian President Volodymryr Zelensky has promised to issue weapons to anyone who is willing to fight for Ukraine. He is quoted as saying: “Every friend of Ukraine who wants to join Ukraine in defending the country please come over, we will give you weapons.” (inews.co.uk, Feb 25, 2022). Apparently there is a new unit in the Ukrainian defense forces called the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.

NATO Response. Germany is looking at establishing a 100 billion euro special fund to build up the Bundeswehr. This according to a statement by Chancellor Scholz. NATO nations have been flowing troops and equipment to eastern Europe and the Baltic States to ensure it is ready to counter any Russian moves against a NATO nation.

European Commission. The leaders of the EC have condemned Putin’s war against Ukraine and have opted to impose severe measures on key Russian institutions and banks and other Russian figures and organizations. Selected banks are to be removed from the SWIFT messaging system which disconnects the banks from the international financial system and harms their ability to operate globally. The EC is imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves. It also will limit the sale of citizenship or ‘golden passports’ to wealthy Russians who are connected to the Russian government. See more in “Joint Statement on Further Restrictive Economic Measures”, The White House, February 26, 2022.

Sanctions. The world is tightening up on the economy of Russia. A variety of economic measures and sanctions have gone into effect. One example of how this impacts Russia took place on Saturday when France intercepted a Russian vessel in the English Channel in line with European Union sanctions. Some nations are waffling on the sanctions issue; India is one of them.

Lethal Aid. A number of western nations are shipping arms, munitions, and ammunition to Ukraine. These countries include the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and others. Small arms, MANPADs, and anti-armor weapons are included in these shipments. On Saturday, President Biden authorized an additional $350 million of military assistance from DoD inventories. This included anti-armor, small arms, various munitions, body armor, and related equipment. The United Kingdom has been shipping NLAWs to Ukraine, and they are proving to be very effective anti-armor weapons on the battlefield.

Humanitarian Aid. Many nations around the world are sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Typically this entails flying goods to Poland and then transferring the aid to trucks to transport across the border into western Ukraine. On Sunday, February 27th the U.S. Department of State announced that it is providing $54 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. $26 million will be from the State Department and $28 million from USAID.

Closing the Straits. Ukraine has appealed to Turkey to block Russian warships from passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits which lead to the Black Sea. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the straits and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened. “Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing Black Sea, says foreign minister”, Euronews, February 26, 2022.

Alcohol Wars. Pravda Brewery, based in Lviv, Ukraine, has suspended its beer brewing operations and is now making Molotov cocktails. The import of Russian vodka into the United States and Canada will likely slow over the next several months. There are a lot of folks looking to express their condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Apparently not drinking the famous alcohol of Russia is one of them. “Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’”, Yahoo! News, February 26, 2022. Drink Finlandia!

Coming Soon – Ukraine Insurgency. Russia’s invasion will very likely unleash forces that the Kremlin will not be able to control. Putin’s best-laid plans could unravel in the face of national resistance and groups of insurgents attacking exposed Russian positions, logistical convoys, and small units over the long-term. Russia can seize as much of Ukraine as it desires. But the more of Ukraine territory that it tries to keep the more Moscow will bleed. Ukraine’s long border with the four NATO states of Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia means that lethal aid can find its way into Ukraine to support a resistance and long-term insurgency. Douglas London was a Senior Operations Officer in the CIA Clandestine Service for over 34 years. He provides a detailed analysis of what could go wrong for the Russians in “The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency”, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2022.

Russian Threats Against the ‘North Countries’. Finland and Sweden have had a ‘partnership’ with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for years. There are indications that both countries are edging toward joining NATO. Russia has come out with some harsh statements on that topic. “Russia says Finland, Sweden could face consequences if countries move to join NATO”, Fox News, February 25, 2022. Both countries discounted the verbal threats from the Russians, saying that they make their own decisions about their security and won’t be influenced by threats from Russia.

Russia’s Nukes Now on Alert. There is some concern about Putin’s order to put Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert on Sunday. He has threatened to retaliate harshly against nations that have intervened directly in the conflict in Ukraine. “Putin puts Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on alert”, Associated Press News, February 27, 2022.

Russia’s Next Target: the Suwalki Gap? A seizure of the the land between Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad would close the narrow passage – the Suwalki Gap – that connects the NATO nation of Poland with the NATO nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. This would involve the introduction of Russian ground troops onto either Poland and / or Lithuania. And invoke NATO’s article 5. However, given Putin’s behavior, this cannot be discounted as his next aim. Of course, Finland, another non-NATO nation could see itself in the crosshairs of Russian aggression . . . as well as some of the former Soviet republics in Central Asia.

That is Day 4 of the newest war….

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