Trying To Reason With The Hurricane Season

This post probably means little to those that do not have to deal with the possibility of a hurricane….but down here we take all news very seriously.

As the weekend begins we here on the Gulf Coast are preparing for the beginning of another hurricane season…..and the news is not all that good.

A recordkeeping change has altered expectations for the number of tropical storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. The average number of named tropical storms in a year is now 14, up from an average of 12 before the change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. The numbers are based on a 30-year period, NPR reports, and the agency shifted to a new time frame on Friday, effective this season—1991 to 2020 instead of 1981 to 2010. The average for hurricanes is seven, up from six. The average number of Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes stays at three, per Axios. The agency made no adjustments for the Pacific Ocean. “These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” said a forecaster for the agency.

At the same time, with average temperatures rising in the US and precipitation becoming more erratic in places, the agency is adjusting what’s considered normal weather. As of next month, NOAA will use the higher temperature baseline of the past 30 years to reflect “normal.” Climate change hasn’t been shown to affect the total number of storms, but hotter water near the ocean surface can bring hurricanes that are more powerful. That’s been the case in the Gulf of Mexico lately. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones,” the forecaster said, “and determined that it can influence storm intensity.” Storms also are being spotted sooner because of improved technology. On Friday, President Biden proposed a $1.4 billion increase in the agency’s budget, up from the current $6.9 billion

Last year we had Hurricane Zeta…100 mph winds….lots of damage…..after Katrina in 2005 we do not need anymore storms to damage this region.

I will update the prediction as the season gets closer…..

As my tradition I close with Jimmy Buffet…..

Be well….be safe….

That 3rd Jab

Yesterday I finally got my first Covid jab.

After my next jab I will be fully inoculated against Covid, right?

Well maybe not so much…..they are issuing a warning that a third shot may be necessary to stay ‘clean’…..

They’re called “breakthrough cases,” and they’re breakthroughs of the unwanted variety. The term refers to people diagnosed with COVID after being fully vaccinated. The CDC has reported its first such count, coming up with 5,800 cases, reports CNN. But maybe the more important stat to keep in mind is that the figure is out of about 77 million people who are fully vaccinated. That means only a fraction of a percentage of vaccinated people are getting sick, note health officials such as Anthony Fauci. Coverage:

  • “You will always see some breakthrough infections no matter the efficacy of your vaccine,” Fauci tells the Wall Street Journal. “Before people get excited about the quantitative number of infections, they need to understand what the denominator is, and we’re going to see breakthroughs in numbers that are going to be well within the 90%, 95%, 97% effectiveness rates of the vaccines.”
  • Of the 5,800 who have gotten sick, about 400 (7%) required hospitalization and 74 died.
  • More than 40% of the breakthrough cases occurred in people older than 60, and 65% involved female patients. About 30% of the cases were asymptomatic.
  • A few factors could explain infections after vaccinations, per the Journal. Older people or those with compromised immune systems might not produce a robust immune response after inoculation; being present at a superspreader event could overwhelm a person’s defenses with a high viral load; or the person might be exposed to a more contagious variant. Even if none of those factors is present, no vaccine is 100% protective.
  • Researchers, though, are still exploring exactly what’s happening. “Is it people in the lower part of the vaccine response mixing with the variants?” Dr. Alexander Greninger of the University of Washington tells NPR. “I think it’s a little bit more—honestly—mysterious.”
  • In an appearance on CNBC, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said people will probably need a third shot of the company’s vaccine within 12 months of being fully vaccinated. Annual shots also are a possibility, he adds. It all depends on how the vaccine holds up over time amid new variants.
  • In regard to breakthrough cases in particular, NPR gathers a quote from Dr. Saad Omer of Yale to sum things up. “The bottom line is: It’s expected,” he says. “No need to freak out.”

I want to be safe….but I ask….my first two jabs were free….will the third be as well?

The reason I ask is that the media is hard selling this possibility…is it news or hype?

Is this just a way for Pharma to make a killing from fear?

I am suspicious of the “oh yeah you will need a continue regiment to stay safe”…..

I may be a cynic but it is not like corporations have not been fleecing the population for decades….I use the price of insulin as an example.


I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”