The Economy–05Nov18

Tomorrow we go to the polls and vote either for dumb or dumber…..and it is important and you would think that since it is important that the Repubs would be looking for the best foot to put forward….and that would be the ECONOMY.

But so far all they have is bullshit anti-immigration slogans….why not emphasize the fact that wages are rising at a good rate……

The last unemployment report before the midterms is a strong one. Employers added 250,000 jobs in October, above the forecast of 188,000, reports the Wall Street Journal. The unemployment rate itself remained at a five-decade low of 3.7%, per the AP. The influx of new job-seekers in October increased the proportion of Americans with jobs to its highest level since January 2009. What’s more, wages rose 3.1% when compared to last October, the best such gain since 2009. It’s the first time since the recession ended that wages rose more than 3% over a year. Average hourly earnings in the private sector increased 5 cents to $27.30.

But so far the president spends all his time recalling 2016, bad mouthing opponents, ripping immigrants, and insulting the press…..not much on the things that are going right……

AS much as Trump would like his lies to find a foothold…..but all is NOT as good as the President would have us believe……

But all the news is not good with the Economy……

There’s mounting anecdotal evidence that President Donald Trump’s trade war is causing trouble for the US economy and businesses. But Friday’s report on third-quarter gross domestic product may be the best hard evidence yet that the tariffs are causing major disruptions in the economy.

GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. But the contribution of net exports of goods and services — the measure of how much trade added or subtracted to GDP growth — was a dismal -1.78 percentage points.

https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-trump-tariff-trade-war-us-china-2018-10

Trump’s super tax cuts has put the US economy into a deep deep deficit……

It became very clear this month that neither the Trump White House nor its allies on Capitol Hill want you to know that the federal budget is already in very bad shape … and getting worse.

It happened when the Treasury, the official keeper of Washington’s financial results, issued its monthly statement for the first 10 months of fiscal 2018 about federal revenue, spending and, therefore, the budget deficit.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/08/20/donald-trump-trillion-dollar-plus-deficits-fiscal-ruin-column/986236002/

2008 the housing market led the rush to ruin…and it is once again showing signs of weakness…..

Despite a robust U.S. economy, at least as measured by gross domestic product, real home price growth is locked in a cyclical downturn. If that’s not bad enough, it will likely get worse based on the same approach and factors that correctly flagged the housing bust — in real time — in early 2006.

Home prices are highly cyclical and, as everyone discovered from the last recession, their movements can have material consequences for the broader economy. Yet, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Aug. 1 monetary policy meeting, policy makers are only starting to recognize the “possibility” of a significant weakening in the housing sector as a “downside risk.” Our research suggests that real home price growth has already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify. Data this week is forecast to show a drop in housing starts and existing home sales.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-15/housing-prices-may-have-entered-a-cyclical-downturn

Key economic indicators are flashing red:

  • Worker productivity is sluggish. The third quarter marked the “32nd straight quarter of yearly growth below 2%, a long and consistent stretch of anemic growth that hasn’t happened before in the post-World War II era,” the WSJ reports.
  • Manufacturing activity has stalled for the first time in two years, possibly the result of President Trump’s multi-front trade war.
  • Business investment is laggardly. Rather than using their $1.2 trillion tax cut on capital spending, companies are on track for the biggest-ever year of stock buybacks, possibly reaching $1 trillion.

Instead of focusing on a group of slow walking people maybe he should grasp and old saying……

“Mr. President….It is The Economy Stupid!”

Vote Tomorrow!

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2 thoughts on “The Economy–05Nov18

  1. Those sanctions and cancellations of deals haven’t had time to fully kick in yet. By 2019, the real damage will start to show properly.
    Best wishes, Pete.

    1. And it will be just what the Neocons want….they are looking for a reason and they have the war mongers in position to start another war….chuq

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