Trump’s Trade War

There are a wealth of effects of the trade war that dear leader has set his policies on…..like higher prices and Christmas on the way…..but the one number that Americans will pay attention to is the jobs numbers…..

A job count is depressing……….

President Trump says he is “winning big time, against China.” But his trade war is causing measurable damage to the U.S. economy, with the pain likely to worsen.

Forecasting firm Moody’s Analytics estimates that Trump’s trade war with China has already reduced U.S. employment by 300,000 jobs, compared with likely employment levels absent the trade war. That’s a combination of jobs eliminated by firms struggling with tariffs and other elements of the trade war, and jobs that would have been created but haven’t because of reduced economic activity.

The firm’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, told Yahoo Finance that the job toll from the trade war will hit about 450,000 by the end of the year, if there’s no change in policy. By the end of 2020, the trade war will have killed 900,000 jobs, on its current course. The hardest-hit sectors are manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and retail.

Other data back up the Moody’s Analytics numbers. Employers have created 1.3 million jobs so far this year, down from 1.9 million during the same period in 2018. The manufacturing sector has actually contracted, with many producers struggling with higher prices caused by Trump’s tariffs. Business investment is growing by the smallest amount since late 2016.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-trade-war-has-killed-300000-jobs-194717808.html

Since this trade war will be a drag on Trump’s re-election hde had to come up with something to change the conversation……and he possibly has found his answer…..the problem is it will a deficit buster…..

President Donald Trump promised to unveil an “inspirational” middle class tax cut next year during a political retreat in Maryland late Thursday, just as the Treasury Department said the nation’s budget deficit topped the $1 trillion mark for only the second time on record. 

Trump told House Republicans in the state’s biggest city, Baltimore, that his “substantial” tax cut plans would be “very, very inspirational … for  middle-income folks, who work so hard,” and that details would be released early next year. Congress, however, would need to approve and pass any suggested tax reductions from the executive branch, setting up a potential election-defining fight with Democratic lawmakers heading into next year’s presidential elections.

The pledge will also add further pressure on the nation’s finances after the Treasury reported a $169 billion shortfall in revenues in August, taking the overall deficit for the 11 months ended in August, the government’s fiscal year, to $1.07 trillion. The last trillion-plus deficit was recorded in the three years that followed the 2008 global financial crisis. 

(thestreet.com)

Where are the deficit hawks?  The Fiscal Conservatives are a bunch of low life cowards.

This is just a promise like all his promise hollow and without merit.

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Closing Thought–29Aug19

I have not been a fan of the newest super jet fighter that the defense industry is making and selling around the world….personally I think it is a worthless waste of money and I have written as much…..https://lobotero.com/2016/11/03/f-35-the-flying-turd/

After $1.45 trillion….. yep that is trillion with a “T”….and this brick still cannot get off the ground….

The fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters flying in the critical operational testing phase is struggling to stay airborne, which could delay the troubled program’s great leap forward into mass production.

As I recently reported for the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), a document from the program’s test force shows that the fleet’s test aircraft, housed at California’s Edwards Air Force Base, have netted an average 11 percent “fully mission capable rate”—the key measure of how often an aircraft can perform all of its assigned missions—since the process began last December. 

Why the $1.45 Trillion F-35 Still Can’t Get Off the Ground

This plane is the state of the art in electronic devices and weaponry….and yet we let the Chinese make parts for the “super fighter”…..

On Jun. 14, 2019 Sky News reported that a Chinese-owned company has been manufacturing key circuit boards for F-35 Lightning II fifth generation fighters flown by the U.K. and U.S.

Exception PCB, based in Gloucestershire, southwest England, which produces the parts was acquired in 2013 by its Chinese parent, Shenzhen Fastprint.

The circuit boards control many of the F-35’s core capabilities, including its engines, lighting, fuel and navigation systems, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) said in a press release.

However the MoD said Exception PCB is an established manufacturer and presents no risks to the fighter F-35’s supply chain.

Chinese-owned company produces parts for F-35 Fifth Generation Fighters

Let me get this straight….on the most sophisticated fighter jet in the world and we out-sourced the production of needed parts?

Seriously?  We go to the Walmart of the defense industry for the top secret parts?

Wonder why NO infrastructure then look no further than this piece of crap…..now ask why?

Where were the so-called “deficit hawks” on this one?

God I love this stuff!

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Social Security 2100

As an old fart I am always watching to see what measures are proposed then taken by this government that would effect us elderly people.

Social Security has been a battlefield for generations…..the big lie that seems to surface with every election is that SS is going bankrupt…..

Arguably the biggest Social Security lie is the idea that the program will soon be bankrupt and not able to provide a benefit to future retirees. This lie is perpetuated by the latest annual report from the Social Security Board of Trustees, which calls for a major shift come 2022. In four years, the program will begin paying out more in benefits than it’s generating in income for the first time in 40 years. This shift is a result of a growing number of baby boomers entering retirement and thus lowering the worker-to-beneficiary ratio, an increase in longevity over many decades, and growing income inequality that has allowed the rich to live substantially longer (and collect a bigger Social Security check) than lower-income folks.

By 2034, a dozen years later, Social Security’s approximately $3 trillion in asset reserves is expected to be completely exhausted. It’s this excess cash depletion that has 51% of Americans, according to a 2015 Gallup survey, confident that they won’t receive a dime from the program by the time they retire. Thankfully, more than half of all Americans are wrong. 

Social Security has three funding mechanisms, and one of those funding sources ensures that the program is incapable of going bankrupt. Social Security’s lesser funding sources are the interest earned on its asset reserves ($88.4 billion in 2016) and the taxation of Social Security benefits ($32.8 billion in 2016).

(The Motley Fool)

Rep. John Larson has put forth a plan to strengthen Social Security…..it is called Social Security 2100 Act…..
Bill Text  | Full Press Release | Fact Sheet

For millions of workers, Social Security is all they have to keep them from destitution in old age. Even with Social Security’s guaranteed benefits, they struggle to make ends meet. Fortunately, Congress can easily strengthen retirement security by expanding Social Security. Congressman John Larson (D-CT) has a bill to do just that: The Social Security 2100 Act, which is supported by 90 percent of Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Nearly four in five Americans live paycheck to paycheck. In 2018, the Federal Reserve Board found that four in ten Americans could not afford $400 for an emergency expense. Low wages combined with the high cost of health care, housing and education prevent people from putting aside funds for retirement. The Government Accountability Office reported earlier this year that almost half of households headed by Americans aged 55 and older have no retirement savings.

Equally concerning, most companies no longer offer pensions to their workers—a guaranteed monthly income. Instead, if they are lucky, workers get small financial contributions toward their retirement that do not amount to a whole lot. 401k plans and other so-called “defined contribution” plans do little good if workers are forced to spend their income on basic needs and have no money to save.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/08/13/social-security-2100-path-protecting-americas-elderly-communities

A good plan but as long as Moscow Mitch has a strangle hold on the Senate this will probably go no where.

Read the act over and if you like what you see then let your representative and senators know…..

Be Smart!

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“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Where Have All The Deficit Hawks Gone

Gone to Trumpland every one.

Closing Thought–23Aug19

Before I go on my rant about the deficit…..I would like to update a post on the deaths of 2 Americans in Afghanistan a few days ago…..

The Department of Defense has released the names of two U.S. service members who were killed in Afghanistan on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. They are members of the 7th Special Forces Group based at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida.

Both soldiers died in Faryab province, Afghanistan as a result of wounds sustained from small arms fire while engaged in combat operations.

Master Sergeant Luis DeLeon-Figueroa, 31, of Chicopee, Massachusetts.

Master Sergeant Jose J. Gonzalez, 35, of La Puente, California.

More than half of the U.S. deaths in Afghanistan in 2019 have been Special Forces casualties – sometimes referred to as Green Berets. The two soldiers were assigned to the NATO Special Operations Component Command – Afghanistan (NSOCC-A). The soldiers received a posthumous promotion.

I recall my younger days in the political scene…there were social hawks and deficit hawks….the GOP were traditionally the hawks on the deficit….that is until they sold their souls to Trump.

Who really cares about the budget deficit?  https://lobotero.com/2009/06/13/is-the-deficit-really-of-concern/

And the question is still asked and failed to be answered.

All their rhetoric about the dangers of running a massive deficit were stuff of legend……but came 9/11 and their desire for revenge and allowed the defense budget to explode the deficit…..and then cam Trump and all pretense about caring about the deficit is gone.

The news coming out of the CBO is terrible and yet the GOP is silent thus approving of the massive deficit they have given the nation…..

The deficit will swell by $809 billion more than anticipated over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office announced in new projections Wednesday, per the AP. The Washington Post reports the US was already expected to hit a deficit over the $1 trillion mark in 2020. The change here, which is an update to the CBO’s May report, is due to recently enacted legislation on two fronts: the budget deal signed into law this month and supplemental spending at the border. A grim line from the new CBO report: “To put [debt] on a sustainable course lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies.”

CNBC quotes CBO Director Phillip Swagel as saying in the report that “federal debt … is on an unsustainable course,” and that while it will average $1.2 trillion annually between 2020 and 2029 it’ll jump even higher after that as the population ages and health-care spending rises. A third grim line from the report, per Fox News: “As a result of those deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, from 79% of GDP in 2019 to 95% in 2029—its highest level since just after World War II.”

Give it time and the deficit hawks will return….probably when there is a Dem president…..and a GOP Congress……funny how all that manure works…..and yet they only care about deficit spending when it applies to social safety net…..

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Closing Thought–21Aug19

There are questions in life that we ask ourselves…..like whatever happened to the AMC Pacer….or the Pet Rock……but the one mystery is whatever happened to those deficit hawks?

A term for American politicians who emphasize limitation of federal budget. Usually fiscal conservatives, they advocate increased taxes and reduced government spending in order to lessen budget deficits.

Well that sounds like the GOP…… well except for the increased taxes thingy.

They disappear when Repubs control the levers of power in one form or the other.  They only appear when Dems are leading the charge of the country and then it is the so-called entitlements that become the mechanism of control spending….it is the social safety net that causes the problem…not the endless expensive wars or the defense spending for future weapons.

There is a Repub in control first the White House and the Senate….and they, the Hawks, have slinked back into the shadows to await the results in 2020.

I mean now is the best time for them to rear their lying heads with a deficit so large it makes me gag to write the numbers…..

The federal government spent a record $3,727,014,000,000 in the first ten months of fiscal 2019 (October through July), according to the Monthly Treasury Statement released today.

While spending that record $3,727,014,000,000, the government ran a deficit of $866,812,000,000.

Before this year, the most that the federal government had ever spent in the first ten months of a fiscal year was in fiscal 2009, when the Treasury spent $3,576,745,930,000 (in constant June 2019 dollars, adjusted using the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator).

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/3727014000000-federal-spending-sets-record-through-july-treasury-runs

Where oh where have the mindless drones gone?

If I recall just 5 years ago this subject was of great interest….and yet now….nothing…the sound of crickets.

Not to worry it should return to prominence as soon as the present resident of the White House gets kicked to the curb.

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“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Closing Thought–20Aug19

Economics

How many of you, my readers, believe that China is holding our debt?

Let me correct this erroneous thinking….

It is NOT China but Japan that owns the most Treasury notes……that craps on so many talking points.

Japan surpassed China as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities in June.

Japan has added about $21 billion since May, making its holdings the largest since October, 2016. Japan now holds $1.12 trillion Treasurys, and China has $1.11 trillion, a $2 billion increase from the month earlier, according to U.S. Treasury department data.

China has been a less aggressive buyer of the U.S. sovereign debt, and market players have speculated that one action it could take in the trade war with the U.S. is to lighten up on its U.S. holdings. But there are no signs that is happening, according to traders.

The U.K. is the third-largest holder with $342.3 billion, up from $323.1 billion a month earlier.

(CNBC)

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The Economy, Stupid!

The markets have had wild swings for about a year now….but with that the profits roll on for the corporations…..the president’s lack of economic knowledge and the wild lies of something good is just making things worse.

And this past week it has come to a head (as they say)…..it happened in the bond markets……

An economic alarm bell has sounded in the US, sending warnings of a possible recession ahead—and sending the Dow plunging 800 points by the end of the day. Yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted early Wednesday, a market phenomenon that shows investors want more in return for short-term government bonds than for long-term bonds. It’s an indication that investors have lost faith in the soundness of the US economy, the AP reports. What appeared to be a slight thaw in trade relations between the US and China that had sent markets sharply higher Tuesday was quickly forgotten, with the Dow opening down 400 points. By 12:30pm ET it was down nearly 650 points; a half-hour later it had plunged 737 points, or 2.6%, reports CNBC. By end of day it was down 800, the S&P 500 was down 86, and the Nasdaq was down 242, per Marketwatch.

CNBC notes that bank stocks like Bank of America and Citigroup have been the big losers today, down 5% and 5.2% respectively, as “it gets tougher for [them] to make a profit lending money in such an environment.” The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.622%, falling below the yield of a 2-year, which was 1.634%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit. An inversion like the one taking place Wednesday has preceded the last nine recessions dating back to 1955. When a recession might hit, if it does, is a little hazier. Months or even years have passed after an inversion takes place, and before economists can connect the two. Marketwatch notes Wednesday was the Dow’s worst day this year.

Here comes the “R” word…. a “recession”…..some are running worried….

Then there are the multiple lies about China and tariffs….remember when he said China would pay for the tariffs not the American people?  That was the same lie as Mexico would pay for that damn silly border wall.  Don’t forget the lie about all the billions flowing into the coffers of the nation…that was a lie as well…..

If China was gonna to pay and the pain would all be on someone else then why did Trump decide to postpone tariffs until mid-December?

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods, in the hopes of blunting their impact on U.S. holiday sales.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-tariff/trump-backs-off-china-tariff-plan-with-delays-for-cellphones-laptops-idUKKCN1V31CR

Would “impact US holiday sales”…..that should tell you everything you need to know about these pseudo-economic solutions….even if you are not a genius like our Supreme Leader Trump.

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“Lego Ergo Scribo”