NK has been making news so the other side of the world is getting little press these days. Iran is making news just not enough for the MSM to pay attention at least for right now….they will shortly…..
First we need to look at Iran’s priorities……
Iran is ascendant in the Middle East, spreading its influence in a contiguous geographic arc from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut. Its rise, which began with the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and accelerated when civil wars erupted in Syria and Yemen, has generated a perception that Iran aspires to be the region’s hegemonic power. To the U.S. and its allies – Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – such an ambition constitutes an intolerable threat. Iran, however, sees itself as breaking out of prolonged isolation and stifling sanctions – precipitated by the 1979 Islamic Revolution – that it perceives as historic injustice. It sees a region dominated by powers with superior military capabilities. After the 2011 Arab uprisings, Iran applied military force to protect a longstanding ally, the Syrian regime, viewing its loss as a possible prelude to its own encirclement. It is in part the gap in perceptions that has locked Iran and its rivals in an escalatory spiral of proxy fights that is destroying the region. A first step toward closing the gap is to better understand how Iran debates and fashions its regional policy.
Then there is the nuke deal that is in place that Trump and the war mongers do not like…..the chances are that this deal will possibly be terminated….if so what then?
With just weeks remaining before President Trump’s May 12 ultimatum to change the Iran nuclear deal, there is little sign major change is coming. This is raising concerns that the president may attempt to blow up the deal outright, as he has long threatened.
Iran is warning against such a move, saying that they are prepared to ‘vigorously‘ resume their enrichment of uranium if the pact collapses. Iran FM Javad Zarif noted that Iran was never seeking a nuclear bomb, but that enrichment to lower levels would probably be stepped up in the fact of the deal falling apart.
That’s unsurprising. Dramatic curbs to enrichment were a big concession made by Iran under the deal, along with giving the IAEA an unprecedented level of access to their nuclear sites. Without the deal, Iran would likely feel obliged to reverse those concessions.
This is very worrying…..we could get a deal with NK and then have another nuke problem on our hands.
4 weeks and this could explode on more than one front.