Inkwell Institute

Eurasian Desk

From the days when I was studying international relations I was fascinated by conflict and its resolution……and that has lead me to interests in Middle East and now the Ukraine……it will be interesting to see how this situation turns out……will it be a calm transition or will the specter of civil war once again raise its ugly head?

I want to ask this question but I fear it may be a bit much, considering the sad condition that our educational system is in….but what the Hell?

What did Germany use as a pretense of invading Czechoslovakia and Poland?

(Pause here for thought or the use of the Google finger)………he invaded to protect the ethnic Germans living in the region……why do I bring this up?  just look at the map provided below…..Putin could use that excuse for an invasion, of sorts, into the Ukraine to protect ethnic Russians……also let us not forget that the Russians have a massive naval force in the Crimea and he will want to protect that port at all costs……..

Using above map…….if this situation boils down to a civil war…we will be looking at another Iraq and/or Syria.

All this depends on what Putin and Russia are willing to do……take into consideration they had NO problem invading Georgia back in the first decade of the 21st century….all on the pretense of protecting Russians……

Will this cycle repeat itself?

Another thing to consider is the US has a proposal to lighten the army to a total of 450,000 men/women under arms……this could be another thing that Putin would consider invading and US that is war weary and may not react aggressively…….

There are many variables here……but the one thing we can be sure of is that Putin and Russia have not given their final word on the situation…….and another thing to think about….could this be an Arab Spring-like movement for the area we call Eurasia?  Could this be the beginning of my “Linch Pin” prediction?

Sad part for me is that Americans will have little say until their brains, the media, starts telling them what to think and then there will be a wealth of opinions….none of which will be accurate in any way…….

Thoughts?