Tag: Russia

A Peace Formula For Ukraine

Davos, Switzerland is the location for the 4th round of peace formula talks between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine and Switzerland will host around 120 national security advisors on Sunday in the Swiss resort town of Davos, Switzerland’s foreign affairs department said, the latest in a series of meetings to rally support for Ukraine’s peace plan.

The meeting, taking place in the run up to the World Economic Forum which begins the following day, is the fourth of its kind and the biggest yet, following previous gatherings in Copenhagen, Jeddah and most recently in Malta in October.

Officials had hoped the meeting in Malta would lead to the setting of a date for a global peace summit to build a coalition of support for Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan, drafted by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in December 2022.

However, co-chairs limited themselves at the time to a joint statement referring to the participants’ commitment to just and lasting peace.

A top Kyiv official told Reuters in November that a summit to begin implementing the plan “might” take place in February 2024, with Ukraine fearing the war in Gaza is making it harder to win over diplomatic support for its blueprint for peace.

(usnews.com)

Just what is Zelenskyy’s plan?

Glad you asked I happen to have it right here…..

The plan calls for:

  • Radiation and nuclear safety, focusing on restoring security around Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine, which is now Russian-occupied.
  • Food security, including protecting and ensuring Ukraine’s grain exports to the world’s poorest nations.
  • Energy security, with a focus on price restrictions on Russian energy resources, as well as aiding Ukraine with restoring its power infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian attacks.
  • Release of all prisoners and deportees, including war prisoners and children deported to Russia.
  • Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and Russia reaffirming it according to the UN Charter, which Zelenskyy said is “not up to negotiations”.
  • Withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities, the restoration of Ukraine’s state borders with Russia.
  • Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes.
  • The prevention of ecocide, and the protection of the environment, with a focus on demining and restoring water treatment facilities.
  • Prevention of an escalation of conflict and building security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine.
  • Confirmation of the war’s end, including a document signed by the involved parties.

A grand plan and a good place to start….but there will be sticking points……but if Russia is not part of this process then what damn good is it?

The problem as I see it….Western media seems to be trying to soften the blow with a Russian victory in this conflict.

The Wall Street Journal joined the flood of American mainstream media outlets, including The New York Times, Politicoand several others, in preparing the American public for a Russian victory.

The Wall Street Journal laid the psychological groundwork preparing the American public for defeat in Ukraine, despite the loss of Ukrainian lives and American dollars, with the line “Even if aid for Ukraine is renewed, it is essential to consider a realistic ending for the war.” It goes on to say that, though “Ukraine’s insistence on regaining all the territory Russia has seized since 2014 is understandable…events over the past year have made it clear that this goal can’t be achieved anytime soon.” The article concludes with the prescription that “Western leaders should explore” negotiations to end the fighting, calling it “a bitter pill” but “the only realistic path to a lasting peace in Europe.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/wall-street-journal-sets-standard-for-irresponsible-journalism-in-ukraine/

With this happening will the complexion of any peace talks be tainted?

Zelensky’s plan requires a full Russian withdrawal from the territory it has captured since February 2022, Russia giving up Crimea, war crimes tribunals, and Russia paying reparations to Ukraine. Kyiv has no shot at implementing any aspect of the Peace Formula since its counteroffensive failed, and Ukrainian forces are now focused on defense and facing manpower shortages.

Plus where is America’s top diplomat, Blinken?

Whatcha think?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Ukraine: A New Direction?

Thanx to Israel we have not heard much about Ukraine and in case you are interested they are still fighting and dying.

Is it time for a re-think about the direction this war should take?

Let’s look at what has happened while you were busy writing glowing stuff about Israel…..

Ukraine’s top general, Valerii Zaluzhnyi admitted that the war with Russia was at a stalemate. In December, Republicans in the US House of Representatives torpedoed the Biden administration’s request for billions in new military assistance to Ukraine. At the European Union, Hungary vetoed desperately needed monetary assistance. President Biden’s mantra that the allies would support Ukraine “as long as it takes” became a pledge to support the country “as long as we can.” From Europe, a stalwart Ukraine supporter, Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis reported that “apparently as long as it takes means as long as we can agree.” Clearly, the time of magical thinking is over.
Ukraine’s startling early success in repelling the Russian attempt to take Kiev produced widespread euphoria. Russia’s military was exposed as incompetent and bumbling. The US mobilized its allies to provide arms and support and impose harsh sanctions on Putin. NATO was galvanized and expanded. Putin would be handed a defeat without NATO troop involvement. As the noxious Lindsay Graham put it, “Russians are dying” as Ukrainians fight “to the last person,” so aid to Ukraine is “the best money we’ve ever spent.” Sanctions would isolate and bankrupt Russia. China, Iran, North Korea and other adversaries would learn that aggression doesn’t pay. Putin might even be deposed and hauled before the International Criminal Court. In little more than a year, the US alone rushed $75 billion in largely military aid to Ukraine, a sum nearly as great as the entire annual Russian military budget.
(the nation)
Fight to the last man mentality has done little to secure a victory for Ukraine and the millions sank into this war by the US has done little to secure a victory….then what is the new direction?

The US and its European allies are quietly shifting their strategy in Ukraine from supporting Kyiv’s unrealistic goal of driving Russian forces out to encouraging a defensive posture with future negotiations in mind, POLITICO reported on Wednesday, citing US and European officials.

The US and its close allies have discouraged peace talks throughout the conflict, including in March and April of 2022, when a peace deal was on the table that would have left Ukraine territorially intact in exchange for the country’s neutrality, something that was recently confirmed by Ukraine’s lead negotiator.

Instead of pushing for peace, then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Ukraine to keep fighting, and the US declared one of its war goals was to “weaken” Russia. Now, Moscow has made it clear any future peace deal must recognize the territory it has annexed as Russian. The New York Times reported on December 23 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been signaling through diplomatic channels that he is open to a ceasefire that freezes the fighting along the current lines.

The POLITICO report said that US and European officials are discussing deploying Ukrainian forces in a defensive posture instead of continuing the failed counteroffensive.

The shift in strategy comes as both the US and Europe are struggling to come up with more funding for the proxy war. Part of the Biden administration’s long-term strategy is to help build up Ukraine’s own military-industrial complex so the country is not so reliant on foreign aid.

The Biden administration has not publicly outlined its shift in strategy, but there are signs that the US is thinking about winding down the proxy war. A mantra commonly repeated by US and NATO officials was that they would support Ukraine against Russia for “as long as it takes.” But when President Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky earlier this month, he said the US would continue supplying Ukraine with weapons for “as long as we can.”

For his part, Zelensky still maintains his war aim is to drive Russian forces out of all the Ukrainian territory that’s been captured. Time Magazine recently spoke with an aide to Zelensky who said the Ukrainian leader “deludes himself” into thinking Ukraine can win. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that,” the aide said.

(antiwar.com)

All that is needed now is a network of trenches on both sides and we can have a replay of World War One.

Anyone that knows history will tell how moronic that war was on so many levels.

The US just cannot come up with alternatives that will save the country of Ukraine and find a peaceful solution.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Let’s Try Even More Sanctions

The US is imposing new sanctions on Russia….

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the US has put 250 individuals and entities on blacklists for supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Washington has waged an economic war aimed at destroying the Russian economy for the past 20 months. However, Moscow has largely successfully circumvented the Western financial penalties. 

Blinken said in a statement, “The US is imposing sanctions today on over 250 individuals and entities in connection with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” The statement continued, “The Department of State is imposing sanctions on over 100 entities and individuals, including those engaged in sanctions evasion, furthering Russia’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine, and bolstering Russia’s future energy production and export capacity.”  

The statement added, “Concurrently, the Department of the Treasury is imposing sanctions on over 150 individuals and entities, including multiple networks used by Russia to circumvent sanctions, numerous third-country suppliers to Russia’s military-industrial base, and additional Russian financial institutions.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/us-issues-hundreds-of-new-sanctions-against-russia/

I have written many times about how sanctions do very little to change things…..in fact there are times when they just help business to boom.

And oil business for Russia is booming after the massive sanctions imposed by the US and its NATO allies….

A Bloomberg analysis of Russian energy exports found Moscow has largely successfully circumvented the Group of 7’s (G7) price cap on Russian oil exports. The Kremlin has found buyers in India and China to replace exports to Europe. Additionally, Moscow has contracted with a group of tankers willing to transport Russian oil despite potential economic penalties.

Bloomberg reports, “Russia’s net oil revenues of $11.3 billion in October accounted for 31% of the nation’s overall net budget revenue for the month, according to Bloomberg calculations that are built around Russian finance ministry data, but smooth out profit-based tax revenue.” The article continues, “That was the highest since May 2022 and exceeded any single month in the year before the invasion of Ukraine, which initially caused huge volatility to the nation’s exports.”

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, President Joe Biden announced the US and its allies would use sanctions to cripple the Russian economy and disable Moscow’s war machine. The Kremlin was able to find trading partners willing to ignore the Western sanctions, such as China, India, and Turkey. 

As the economic war failed to deliver a blow to the Russian economy during the first year of the war, in December 2022, Washington and its allies in the G7 imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports. However, Moscow has effectively evaded the economic penalties by shipping its oil via a fleet of tankers that operate outside of Western enforcement mechanisms. 

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/russian-oil-revenue-higher-in-october-than-any-month-in-2021/

Sanctions are nothing more than a feel good solution that accomplishes very little to nothing.

But that is okay as long as the ‘leaders’ can go before a camera and convince the weak mind that they are doing damage to the opposition….

Like I said feel good at best and makes for great news fodder for the evening news.

Maybe we should impose more sanctions.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

What’s Next For Ukraine?

I thought I would return to the days of yesteryear and comment on the doings in Ukraine….you remember them right?

They were the ‘popular’ war before the mash-up in Gaza that everyone was thrilled with departing their take on that situation.

Of course most of them were wrong but that’s alright they deserve their say….

Remember the much stated line of “As long as it takes”?  Meaning the war will continue until Russia is brought to its knees.

It turns out that “as long as it takes” may mean little more than 21 months. In fact, for months, the United States has been critical of Ukraine’s strategy and tactics. The German magazine Bild reported last week that Biden was going back on his word, that the U.S. and Germany would both begin to softly pressure Ukraine to go to the negotiating table with Russia. Bild‘s report was hotly denied by the administration, but the truth is that the great blob of respectable foreign-policy opinion that supports the Biden policy in Ukraine is wriggling itself into a new position.

So if the reports are valid what’s next for Ukraine?

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins to unravel, it is not clear that the hundreds of thousands of deaths already suffered have purchased any of its goals.

Ukraine is not in NATO, and it has not received any firm assurance that it will ever be. All that has happened is that the fifteen year old promise that Ukraine will some day become a member of NATO has been updated to a promise that Ukraine will “join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.” Recognizing the ruse, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has bitterly complained that “It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine.”

Ukraine is not whole. It has not pushed Russia off its land or reacquired any significant amount of contested territory. Donbass and Crimea remain firmly in Russia’s control. No Ukrainian advance severed Crimea from the mainland. Indeed, as the New York Times pointed out at the end of September, during this counteroffensive Ukraine actually lost more territory than it gained.

https://original.antiwar.com/Nicolai_Petro/2023/11/16/whats-next-for-ukraine-the-outlines-of-a-peaceful-settlement/

Seriously?  The move now is to negotiate and end to this conflict and yet the same thing could have been accomplished in March of 2022…..

David Arakhamia, a high-ranking member of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People political party, said that Kyiv could have ended the war with Russia after a month if it agreed not to join NATO. The official said that Moscow was not concerned about other issues, such as “denazification,” but only wanted Kyiv to agree to neutrality.

In an interview with TV channel 1+1, a Ukrainian network, Arakhamia confirmed previous reporting that Moscow and Kyiv had nearly agreed to end the war in March 2022. Still, Ukraine’s Western backers pushed it to try to win the war against Russia. “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality,” Arakhamia  said.” It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.”

Arakhamia, who led the Ukrainian negotiation team, said that other issues, such as the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the “denazification” of the government in Kyiv, were less important to Moscow. “In fact, [neutrality] was the key point.” He continued, “Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah.”

Arakhamia explained that while Kyiv’s Western backers did not discourage talks, they advised against accepting a deal. “They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees, which could not have been given at that time at all,” he stated during the interview.

The statements in the interview by Arakhamia confirm several reports from other officials – Russian, Turkish, and American – that a deal was offered by the Kremlin in the early days of the war to withdraw Russian forces to the prewar lines in exchange for Kyiv’s vow to never join NATO.

Now, after 20 months of war, Ukraine’s Western backers are discussing Kyiv’s opening dialogue with Moscow. Since the talks in the early months of the conflict, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is likely to demand more territorial concessions than what was once on the table for Kyiv.

(antiwar.com)

Sounds like the US is trying to save money so they can funnel it into the coffers of Israel….at least to me.

On another front….politics….

Looks like Zelensky will have a challenger (possibly two) if and when he allows elections in Ukraine….

Internal polling in Ukraine shows that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could lose a presidential election if he faces off with Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, The Economist reported on Tuesday.

So far, Zaluzhny has not expressed an interest in entering the political fray, but he’s been rumored to be a potential candidate. It’s also been reported that he’s been at odds with Zelensky, a spat that spilled into the public after Zaluzhny called the war against Russia a stalemate and said there would likely be no “deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

Zelensky, who is still claiming Ukraine can win, later took a swipe at Zaluzhny, saying Ukrainian generals should stay out of politics. “If a military man decided to do politics, it is his right, then he should enter politics, and then he can’t deal with war,” Zelensky said.

But polling shows the Ukrainian public trusts Zaluzhny more than the country’s political leadership, as Kyiv has been rocked by corruption scandals.

The Economist report reads: “The figures, which date from mid-November, show trust in the president has fallen to a net +32%, less than half that of the still revered General Mr Zaluzhny (+70%). Ukraine’s spychief, Kyrylo Budanov, also has better ratings than the president (+45%).”

Ukraine’s next presidential election is scheduled for March 2024, but Zelensky has ruled out holding one due to the war because Ukraine’s constitution prohibits holding a vote under martial law. Zelensky previously suggested he could hold an election if the West foots the bill but later ruled out the idea.

“I believe that elections are not appropriate at this time,” Zelensky said earlier this month. For now, the Ukrainian public agrees that there shouldn’t be an election. The same polling cited by The Economist said eight out of ten Ukrainians are against holding elections, but things could change as the war drags on with no end or victory in sight.

(antiwar.com)

Zelensky will hang on to the purse strings of Ukraine as long as he can.

NATO says be prepared for bad news….

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Saturday that the alliance must be prepared for bad news about Ukraine and urged support for continuing the proxy war against Russia.

“Wars develop in phases,” Stoltenberg told the German broadcaster ARD. “We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times. We should also be prepared for bad news.”

Stoltenberg acknowledged Ukraine has been unable to “move the front line” but claimed Ukrainian forces were still achieving “big victories.” He previously argued that Ukraine was having some success because it was inflicting heavy losses on Russia, although Kyiv is currently facing a serious manpower shortage.

(antiwar.com)

This conflict needs to end….for the sake of the Ukrainian people who are doing the majority of the suffering.

I Have Spoken, It Is Written

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Hey! Ukraine!

Ukraine? You remember them….that was the war before everyone got their panties in a wad over the Middle East (yet again)…..remember?

I read a story that made me shake my head….it seems that Ukraine and Russia could have avoided all the death and destruction in the early days of the conflict…..

David Arakhamia, a high-ranking member of Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People political party, said that Kyiv could have ended the war with Russia after a month if it agreed not to join NATO. The official said that Moscow was not concerned about other issues, such as “denazification,” but only wanted Kyiv to agree to neutrality.

In an interview with TV channel 1+1, a Ukrainian network, Arakhamia confirmed previous reporting that Moscow and Kyiv had nearly agreed to end the war in March 2022. Still, Ukraine’s Western backers pushed it to try to win the war against Russia. “They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality,” Arakhamia  said.” It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to – as Finland once did – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO.”

Arakhamia, who led the Ukrainian negotiation team, said that other issues, such as the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine and the “denazification” of the government in Kyiv, were less important to Moscow. “In fact, [neutrality] was the key point.” He continued, “Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah.”

The high-ranking official explained that Kyiv was unlikely to accept Putin’s offer during the talks in Istanbul because the Ukrainian leadership did not believe Russia could be trusted. However, he went on to say that then-UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson cemented Kyiv on the path of fighting a long war with Russia. “[The deal] could only be done if there were security guarantees. We could not sign something, step away, everyone would relax there, and then they would [invade] even more prepared – because they have, in fact, gone in unprepared for such a resistance, Arakhamia said. “Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let’s just fight.”

Arakhamia explained that while Kyiv’s Western backers did not discourage talks, they advised against accepting a deal. “They actually advised us not to go into ephemeral security guarantees, which could not have been given at that time at all,” he stated during the interview.

The statements in the interview by Arakhamia confirm several reports from other officials – Russian, Turkish, and American – that a deal was offered by the Kremlin in the early days of the war to withdraw Russian forces to the prewar lines in exchange for Kyiv’s vow to never join NATO.

Now, after 20 months of war, Ukraine’s Western backers are discussing Kyiv’s opening dialogue with Moscow. Since the talks in the early months of the conflict, Russia has annexed four regions of Ukraine, suggesting Moscow is likely to demand more territorial concessions than what was once on the table for Kyiv.

(antiwar.com)

Seems semi reasonable that neutrality would be a demand….but that was not to be.

Why?

I have my opinion as you have yours.

But unlike most people I look at both sides of the situation…..

Sad that whoever or whatever prevented the ‘war’ could not be agreed upon for whatever reason….I am sure the dead and injured would have been a lot happier if it had been.

Then there is all this money being wasted on this conflict….and apparently I am not alone….

As lawmakers in Washington weigh sending billions more in federal support to Kyiv to help fight off Russian aggression, close to half of the U.S. public thinks the country is spending too much on aid to Ukraine, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Those sentiments, driven primarily by Republicans, help explain the hardening opposition among conservative GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are rebuffing efforts from President Joe Biden to approve a new tranche of Ukraine aid, arguing that the money would be better spent for domestic priorities.

Yet opposition to aid is down slightly from where it was a month ago in another AP-NORC poll. Now, 45% say the U.S. government is spending too much on aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia, compared with 52% in October. That shift appears to come mostly from Republicans: 59% now say too much is spent on Ukraine aid, but that’s down from 69% in October.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-ukraine-russia-congress-white-house-2cd1be27f7f635e9a89fdbdb9eedb646

I agree but then I think we are wasted or spending too  much on Israel and Taiwan.

NO country, I do not give a crap who they are, should get an open ended free ride at the expense of the US citizenry.  NO COUNTRY!

Turn The Page!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lefo ergo scribo”

Peace In Our Time

For a year now the US has made damn sure that Ukraine and Russia do not negotiate for a ceasefire…..but all of a sudden it seems to be a good idea.

US and European officials are finally broaching the possibility of peace talks with Russia in conversations with the Ukrainian government, NBC News reported on Friday.

The position marks a notable shift in US policy toward the war as the US and its closest allies have discouraged the idea of peace talks since Russia invaded in February 2022. Before the invasion, the US refused to engage with Russia on its key security concern: the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.

The NBC report, which cited unnamed US officials, said the conversations “have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal.” Some of the talks took place last month at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a grouping that’s held meetings since the Russian invasion and includes military representatives from about 50 countries.

The talks about negotiations with Russia started due to Western concerns about the situation on the battlefield and the fact that it’s becoming more difficult to keep funding the war.

Recent reports have revealed that Ukrainian officials don’t believe they can win the war, except for President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valery Zaluzhny described the war as a “stalemate” in comments to The Economist and said there will likely be no “beautiful breakthrough.”

A close aide to Zelensky told Time Magazine that Zelensky was “deluding himself” into believing Ukraine could win, adding, “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”

The Time report also quoted a Ukrainian official who said even if the West provides all the weapons Ukraine needs, they don’t have the soldiers to use them. A source told NBC that one of the Biden administration’s top concerns is the lack of “manpower,” saying that the West could provide Ukraine with the weaponry, “but if they don’t have competent forces to use them, it doesn’t do a lot of good.”

The Biden administration has failed so far to get new funding to continue the proxy war. The Pentagon has about $5 billion left made available by an “accounting error” to ship weapons, but other types of aid have dried up. The administration wants another $61 billion to fund the war for another entire year, but Republicans are prioritizing military aid to Israel.

(antiwar.com)

I guess we can only fund one major conflict at a time…..and with Israel that leaves Ukraine struggling for support.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Will There Be A Happy Ending?

Has everyone forgotten Ukraine?  Is the dew off that lily?

There are so many unanswered questions (at least for me)…..

Has any body bothered to look at how this conflict could end (or is that just not important enough)

Before I get started here is an article that looks into the possibility…..

The answer to the question Can the Ukrainian War be Won? “No ­— unless both sides settle for exercising less sway over the future of their country. The Ukraine and Russia war, at its core, is about nationalism. Each is defending their motherland against outside control.

Put simply, the nationalist view of the conflict is clear. Ukrainians are fighting on their home turf and defending the land against Russians invading it. However, as articulated by their leader, V. Putin, the Russians are defending their historic dominance over Ukraine that the Western countries wish to break away.

Nationalism is more than just adjusting boundaries; it’s about sustaining a culture and often recognizing that it should be the dominant culture of a land. Culture defines a “people” by language, customs, history, and myths.

Can the Ukraine War be Won?

That is the question that we need to consider in this Ukraine Russia thing.

 

Before we go any further there are a few things that need to be said….the area of Eastern Ukraine that is now under dispute is not what one would call ‘traditional’ Ukraine territory….as this map will attest…..

That said let us say that somewhere down the line a peaceful ceasefire is finally found….what will that mean for Eastern Ukraine….

How have some of our recent ‘wars’ to save a country ended?

The Afghan Wars led to a civil wars. The Iraq War led to a Civil War. The Syrian intervention led to a civil war. The disposition of Qaddafi led to a civil war. The civil wars following the interventions have almost always been bloodier than the interventions themselves..

Personally I do not see Ukraine ending any differently.

So if anyone thinks there will be a happy ending to this conflict then another think should be forthcoming.

It appears to me as if the whole ball of wax boils down to ‘save Eastern Ukraine by destroying it’….

Whoever “wins” in eastern Ukraine will win a land depopulated and bastioned by destroyed infrastructure. This land will be polluted for generations by the military toxins of war and ridden with land mines and unexploded ordnance. Very likely, Ukrainian mothers will suffer the same as Iraqi, Afghan, and SE Asian mothers by giving birth for generations to dead, deformed, and sick children due to the undying toxic legacies of modern war. Children and their families, decades from now, will be punished for this madness in Ukraine, just as children and their families continue to be punished throughout “post-conflict” countries. Years from now, as they still die and suffer, will you tell them there was no other option?

Destroying Eastern Ukraine to Save It

Let say hostilities end and Eastern Ukraine returns to the fold in Kyiv….will it end there?

Probably not.

There is lots of Russian sympathy in the region so violence will remain and continue to be dangerous….after all the region only became part of Ukraine in 1922.

Peace in Eastern Ukraine will be elusive.

Now how about Crimea?

The “Z” Man has said there will be no end until Crimea returns to Ukraine.

Another interesting turn….

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reaffirmed his position that the war in Ukraine will not end until Ukrainian forces take Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014.

“We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. And while Crimea is under the Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet,” Zelensky told CNN in an interview taped on Sunday.

When asked if there was any scenario where there could be peace in Ukraine without Kyiv controlling Crimea, Zelensky said, “It will not be victory then.”

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula following the 2014 US-backed coup in Kyiv that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. A referendum at the time saw 97% of voters in Crimea favored joining the Russian Federation. The US and Ukraine dispute the results, but polling since then has shown that the people of Crimea are happy they joined Russia.

While Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have maintained taking Crimea as one of their war goals, the Pentagon has said the prospect is unlikely. To put the peninsula under threat of invasion, Ukrainian forces would need to regain a significant amount of territory to the north, and the counteroffensive is off to a slow start.

(antiwar.com)

Crimea is important but keep in mind that it has been part of Ukraine only since 1954.

So we ask will this war have a happy ending?

NO really….it may be a bit quieter but happy I do not think so…..but stranger things have happened…..but usually only in movies.

But what would a settlement actually look like?

It’s time. If the goal is for Ukraine to emerge from this horrible situation in as strong a position as possible, then the time has come to stop the war and negotiate a settlement.

The Biden administration has long insisted that the goal is to put Ukraine in the best position “on the battlefield [to] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Over a month in, the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was supposed to put them in that position has failed. And barring a surprise that will surprise even the US planners – because they did not plan this – Ukraine’s position on the battlefield will not improve. The US and its NATO allies can continue to deposit artillery and advanced weapons in Ukraine, but the return on their investment will just be more massive loss of equipment and Ukrainian lives.

The war seems to have reached a moment where the longer it goes on, the worse the situation gets for Ukraine in terms of loss of military equipment, loss of life and loss of land. It is time for a negotiated peace.

What could that peace look like? A diplomatic settlement must accomplish three goals. Ukraine must be guaranteed their sovereignty, their security and their potential to thrive. Russia must receive guarantees that their legitimate security concerns will be respected. And the ethnic Russians of the Donbas must be guaranteed protection.

What a Negotiated Settlement to the Ukraine War Could Look Like

I include this peace proposal written by a Russian as a source of knowledge and to be fair to all parties.

Among the international communist and left movements, including their Russian branch, there has been, throughout the entire period of the war in Ukraine, three conflicting assessments of the situation: unconditional support for Ukraine, a cowardly position of “critical” support with “reservations,” and unequivocal condemnation. However, even the generally correct anti-imperialist position of rejection of militarism suffers greatly from “pacifism” in the worst sense of the word. That is, this point of view, by and large, comes down to only one thesis – the immediate cessation of hostilities, without a specific plan, explaining by what methods this will be achieved, by what means, under what conditions, at what borders, etc.

And the social-chauvinists do not miss the opportunity to use this circumstance as an advantageous argument for themselves as justification for their conciliatory position: “And what do you propose? The war is already going on, this is a given, it is not possible to stop it, we must simply win and everything will end.”

My Peace Plan

Please if you have an idea for a peace in Ukraine, other than something akin to WW3, then share with my readers.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Is It A Stalemate Or What?

Ukraine?

You remember that conflict that dominated the news until it became a stalemate and then as if right on cue….GAZA!

The West has been pumping weapons and cash into Ukraine for a very long time…..and the long awaited counteroffensive has seemed to sink into the stalemate that many of us feared.

The reports coming out of the conflict are pointing to a stalemate that few want to admit.

The good news for Ukraine this year is that Russia has barely gained any new territory in nearly 10 months of fighting. The bad news for Ukraine is that its army hasn’t won much land back in that same span. A comprehensive assessment of the war’s front line by the New York Times reveals that it has barely moved since Jan. 1. Russia by now had hoped to have control over all of the Donbas region, while Ukraine hoped to have pushed Russian troops way back through a summer offensive. But the Times analysis reveals that less than 500 square miles of territory has changed hands this year—Russia gained 331 of them and Ukraine 143. Though a seeming stalemate might not seem to favor either side, the gist of the analysis is that it serves Russia better.

For one thing, Western allies might tire of providing aid to Ukraine in a prolonged conflict. For another, Russia has far more fighters and a much larger population to draw from for replenishments. “The whole strategy in Ukraine is for the Russians to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible,” says Marina Miron of King’s College London. Russia, she adds, is “not losing anything by not moving forward.” See the full Times analysis for maps and details. An editor at Yahoo News, meanwhile, makes the case that the term “stalemate” is inaccurate because of positive developments for Ukraine, including an attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet headquarters.

The report highlights that Russia forces have gained a small advantage…..

Russian forces have gained more territory in Ukraine this year than the Ukrainian side despite the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was launched in June, The New York Times reported on Thursday.

The report noted that despite nine months of heavy fighting in Ukraine, only about 500 square miles of territory have changed hands this year. Russia has gained 331 square miles while Ukraine has gained 143, a difference of 188, which amounts to Russia’s net gain in territory so far this year.

Most of the fighting in the first half of the year focused around the Donbas city of Bakhmut, which Russia fully captured in May after a brutal battle that started in August 2022. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has focused on the south, but fighting has continued near Bakhmut and across the entire eastern front.

The Times quoted Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London, who said Russia appears to be comfortable holding the territory it currently controls rather than seeking rapid gains.

Russia Has Gained More Territory This Year Than Ukraine

Neither side is achieving earth shaking results in this war.

There is another front that should be addressed….’war fatigue’.

That feeling that nations and people get when war rages on and control of lives seem to slip into obscurity.

‘War Fatigue’ Is a Big Problem for Ukraine Now – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday. The leader of the embattled nation called for Russia to be removed from the Security Council, while he criticized the group for failing to prevent the conflict. However, Zelensky may have also seriously damaged his standing with some of his staunchest allies after suggesting that some nations in Europe were engaged “in a political theater – making a thriller from grain.”

Two Words That Ukraine Should Fear More Than Anything Else

Time for someone to step forward and find a solution.

But that is just my thought.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Fear Of Peace

Somewhere down the line there will be a peace deal that could end the hostilities….that is a joke for even in peace there will still be lingering hostilities…..then there is those countries that border Ukraine on the West a report says that are concerned for peace.

NATO members that border Russia and Belarus are afraid that growing opposition to the proxy war in Ukraine inside the United States will put pressure on the Ukrainians to pursue peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, The Hill reported on Tuesday.

While the Biden administration’s stated policy is to back Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” and the majority of Congress still supports the proxy war, there is there is fatigue among Americans. A recent poll from CNN found that 55% of Americans are against Congress authorizing more spending on the conflict.

Former President Trump, the Republican frontrunner for the 2024 election, has claimed he would end the war in Ukraine within “24 hours.” The Biden administration is looking to sign a long-term security deal with Ukraine to tie the hands of a future administration on the issue, but the political climate has some NATO members nervous that peace might be pursued.

The report said that for Poland and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, talking with Putin is a “red line.” The four nations want the US and the rest of Ukraine’s Western backers to prepare for a future where the Russian leader is completely isolated.

The narrative from the countries on NATO’s “eastern flank” is that peace talks would reward Putin and put Russia in a better position to exert its influence. “All of this then increases the threat on NATO’s borders. Putin would be able to sell negotiations as a victory, and [it] would help him exert even greater political influence globally — we already see it in Africa, in Niger and South Africa. It’s not only a military threat but a diplomatic one, too,” an unnamed Baltic official told The Hill.

(antiwar.com)

I understand the position taken….but at some point the death and destruction must end.

I would like to see some poll of Ukrainians on this conflict…..we see reports of Ukrainians offering their points but nothing on all Ukrainians.

Ukraine may be fight another war….a trade war with its neighbors….

Ukraine is threatening to take Brussels and EU member countries to the World Trade Organization if they fail to lift restrictions on its agricultural exports to the bloc this month.

The country’s grain exports — its main trade commodity — are currently banned from the markets of Poland, Hungary and three other EU countries under a deal struck with the European Commission earlier this year to protect farmers from an influx of cheaper produce from their war-torn neighbor.

The glut, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its blockade of the country’s traditional Black Sea export routes, has driven a wedge between Ukraine and the EU’s eastern frontline states which have been among the strongest backers of Kyiv’s military fightback.

The restrictions, already extended once, are due to expire on September 15. Amid speculation that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will let them lapse, Poland and Hungary have threatened to impose their own unilateral import bans, in violation of the bloc’s common trade rules.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-wto-poland-hungary-grain-curbs/

Will the two wars converge?

Will this situation change the undying support?

Will the US step in as they always seem to do even when not asked?

This will be an interesting turn to keep my eye on….as only as I can.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Another Putin Victim?

I have written about what I call the “Falling Russian Syndrome’ which is about all the opponents to Putin that have seemingly decided to end their lives by falling to their deaths.

Plus over the years some opponents of Vlad the Invader have also been poisoned….and it seems that another Russian has succumb to a poison….this time it is a Russian space bigwig….

Moscow’s scientific community has lost renowned Russian rocket scientist Professor Vitaly Melnikov, who died at the age of 77. 

Knrewz.com is reporting that the circumstances surrounding his death have not been confirmed but initial reports claim that he succumbed to “mushroom poisoning” just weeks after Russia’s failed moon landing mission.

The source of his poisoning, per a “preliminary” investigation, was credited to inedible mushrooms. Local publication Moskovsky Komsomolets (via The Sun) reports that despite the best efforts of doctors, Professor Melnikov could not be saved and died after battling severe poisoning for over two weeks.

Professor Melnikov was the head of the Department of Rocket and Space Systems at RSC Energia, one of Moscow’s leading spacecraft manufacturers. 

He had also built an illustrious career, working as a chief researcher at TsNIIMASH, a division of Roscosmos, the Russian space agency. 

With 291 scientific articles to his name, he was highly regarded among the international space science community and had throughout his career collaborated with foreign colleagues, including those at NASA.

His death comes in the wake of the failed moon landing mission orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Moscow’s first moon mission in 50 years, termed Luna-25, ended in disaster when the probe crashed into the lunar surface. 

The failed landing was a devastating blow for Melnikov, who had considered it his magnum opus. He described it as his “last hope to see the revival of our lunar program.”

It is important to note that Russia has witnessed a series of mysterious and suspicious deaths over the past two years, coinciding with Putin’s war in Ukraine. 

(knewz.com)

Was this a suicide or a Putin ‘getting even’ death?

Did he kill himself because of this failure or did Putin have a hand in it?

Whatcha think?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”