Has everyone forgotten Ukraine?  Is the dew off that lily?

There are so many unanswered questions (at least for me)…..

Has any body bothered to look at how this conflict could end (or is that just not important enough)

Before I get started here is an article that looks into the possibility…..

The answer to the question Can the Ukrainian War be Won? “No ­— unless both sides settle for exercising less sway over the future of their country. The Ukraine and Russia war, at its core, is about nationalism. Each is defending their motherland against outside control.

Put simply, the nationalist view of the conflict is clear. Ukrainians are fighting on their home turf and defending the land against Russians invading it. However, as articulated by their leader, V. Putin, the Russians are defending their historic dominance over Ukraine that the Western countries wish to break away.

Nationalism is more than just adjusting boundaries; it’s about sustaining a culture and often recognizing that it should be the dominant culture of a land. Culture defines a “people” by language, customs, history, and myths.

Can the Ukraine War be Won?

That is the question that we need to consider in this Ukraine Russia thing.

 

Before we go any further there are a few things that need to be said….the area of Eastern Ukraine that is now under dispute is not what one would call ‘traditional’ Ukraine territory….as this map will attest…..

That said let us say that somewhere down the line a peaceful ceasefire is finally found….what will that mean for Eastern Ukraine….

How have some of our recent ‘wars’ to save a country ended?

The Afghan Wars led to a civil wars. The Iraq War led to a Civil War. The Syrian intervention led to a civil war. The disposition of Qaddafi led to a civil war. The civil wars following the interventions have almost always been bloodier than the interventions themselves..

Personally I do not see Ukraine ending any differently.

So if anyone thinks there will be a happy ending to this conflict then another think should be forthcoming.

It appears to me as if the whole ball of wax boils down to ‘save Eastern Ukraine by destroying it’….

Whoever “wins” in eastern Ukraine will win a land depopulated and bastioned by destroyed infrastructure. This land will be polluted for generations by the military toxins of war and ridden with land mines and unexploded ordnance. Very likely, Ukrainian mothers will suffer the same as Iraqi, Afghan, and SE Asian mothers by giving birth for generations to dead, deformed, and sick children due to the undying toxic legacies of modern war. Children and their families, decades from now, will be punished for this madness in Ukraine, just as children and their families continue to be punished throughout “post-conflict” countries. Years from now, as they still die and suffer, will you tell them there was no other option?

Destroying Eastern Ukraine to Save It

Let say hostilities end and Eastern Ukraine returns to the fold in Kyiv….will it end there?

Probably not.

There is lots of Russian sympathy in the region so violence will remain and continue to be dangerous….after all the region only became part of Ukraine in 1922.

Peace in Eastern Ukraine will be elusive.

Now how about Crimea?

The “Z” Man has said there will be no end until Crimea returns to Ukraine.

Another interesting turn….

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reaffirmed his position that the war in Ukraine will not end until Ukrainian forces take Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014.

“We cannot imagine Ukraine without Crimea. And while Crimea is under the Russian occupation, it means only one thing: the war is not over yet,” Zelensky told CNN in an interview taped on Sunday.

When asked if there was any scenario where there could be peace in Ukraine without Kyiv controlling Crimea, Zelensky said, “It will not be victory then.”

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula following the 2014 US-backed coup in Kyiv that ousted former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. A referendum at the time saw 97% of voters in Crimea favored joining the Russian Federation. The US and Ukraine dispute the results, but polling since then has shown that the people of Crimea are happy they joined Russia.

While Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have maintained taking Crimea as one of their war goals, the Pentagon has said the prospect is unlikely. To put the peninsula under threat of invasion, Ukrainian forces would need to regain a significant amount of territory to the north, and the counteroffensive is off to a slow start.

(antiwar.com)

Crimea is important but keep in mind that it has been part of Ukraine only since 1954.

So we ask will this war have a happy ending?

NO really….it may be a bit quieter but happy I do not think so…..but stranger things have happened…..but usually only in movies.

But what would a settlement actually look like?

It’s time. If the goal is for Ukraine to emerge from this horrible situation in as strong a position as possible, then the time has come to stop the war and negotiate a settlement.

The Biden administration has long insisted that the goal is to put Ukraine in the best position “on the battlefield [to] be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Over a month in, the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was supposed to put them in that position has failed. And barring a surprise that will surprise even the US planners – because they did not plan this – Ukraine’s position on the battlefield will not improve. The US and its NATO allies can continue to deposit artillery and advanced weapons in Ukraine, but the return on their investment will just be more massive loss of equipment and Ukrainian lives.

The war seems to have reached a moment where the longer it goes on, the worse the situation gets for Ukraine in terms of loss of military equipment, loss of life and loss of land. It is time for a negotiated peace.

What could that peace look like? A diplomatic settlement must accomplish three goals. Ukraine must be guaranteed their sovereignty, their security and their potential to thrive. Russia must receive guarantees that their legitimate security concerns will be respected. And the ethnic Russians of the Donbas must be guaranteed protection.

What a Negotiated Settlement to the Ukraine War Could Look Like

I include this peace proposal written by a Russian as a source of knowledge and to be fair to all parties.

Among the international communist and left movements, including their Russian branch, there has been, throughout the entire period of the war in Ukraine, three conflicting assessments of the situation: unconditional support for Ukraine, a cowardly position of “critical” support with “reservations,” and unequivocal condemnation. However, even the generally correct anti-imperialist position of rejection of militarism suffers greatly from “pacifism” in the worst sense of the word. That is, this point of view, by and large, comes down to only one thesis – the immediate cessation of hostilities, without a specific plan, explaining by what methods this will be achieved, by what means, under what conditions, at what borders, etc.

And the social-chauvinists do not miss the opportunity to use this circumstance as an advantageous argument for themselves as justification for their conciliatory position: “And what do you propose? The war is already going on, this is a given, it is not possible to stop it, we must simply win and everything will end.”

My Peace Plan

Please if you have an idea for a peace in Ukraine, other than something akin to WW3, then share with my readers.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”