Tag: Russia

Once Upon A Time In The East

There was this minor mash-up that sent the whole world into a patriotic fervor……so much so that countries invested billions in the probable outcome.

Then when all was mundane the news came of the great ‘counteroffensive’ to end the troubling conflict…..and this is where I pick up with this post….

After more than two months of fighting, Ukraine has failed to make a major breakthrough in its counteroffensive and American intelligence officials now believe it won’t meet its main objective, the Washington Post reports, citing sources in the intelligence community. The Post’s sources say US officials have predicted that the Ukrainian push won’t reach the Russian-occupied southeastern city of Melitopol, meaning they won’t be able to cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. The officials believe that Ukrainian forces, now more than 50 miles away from the city considered the “gateway to Crimea,” won’t be able to get through defensive lines a few miles away from the city.

While the fact that early assessments were overoptimistic may cause some finger-pointing in Washington, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tells the Post that the counteroffensive is unfolding as he had predicted. It’s “long, bloody and slow, and it’s a very, very difficult fight,” he says. Nico Lange, a Ukraine expert at the Munich Security Conference, tells the Economist that over the last two weeks, things have “been gradually tipping in Ukraine’s favor,” with forces slowly making progress and longer-range munitions taking out Russian command centers. “The Russians are in pretty rough shape,” Milley says. “They’ve suffered a huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great.”

The biggest obstacle for Ukrainian forces has been what the Economist calls “some of the most heavily mined areas in the history of warfare,” with up to five mines per square meter in some areas. Ukraine is short on mine-clearing equipment and soldiers clearing mines have been taking heavy casualties. Analysts say, however, that if Ukraine can get through the first Russian defensive line, the second and third lines may turn out to be brittle. The defense ministers of the Netherlands and Denmark said Friday that the US has given its approval to deliver long-awaited F-16s to Ukraine, the AP reports, though they won’t be delivered in time to be used in this year’s offensive.

So has the ‘counteroffensive’ been a dud?

According to the Washington Post, the US intelligence community has assessed that Ukraine’s Spring counteroffensive will fail to meet its core objectives. Western officials said their war games had predicted massive Ukrainian losses, but that Kyiv would remain committed to the operations and gain the upper hand on the battlefield.

The Post reports it spoke with Western and Ukrainian officials familiar with the intelligence assessment. Washington declined to offer an official statement on the bleak outlook for Ukrainian forces.

Washington hoped Kyiv’s forces would recapture Melitopol, a Ukrainian city near the Sea of Azov in the country’s south. However, Moscow has several layers of defenses and minefields defending the town.

Western countries helped Kyiv conduct simulations of the counteroffensive, which began in early June, for several months prior to the operations. The US and UK concluded that Ukrainian forces would suffer massive losses but believed Kyiv would ignore the losses and maintain the offensive at full scale.

…

The lack of success by Ukrainian forces is creating political issues for the White House. The Post reports that some Republicans are turning against approving Joe Biden’s proposed $24 billion aid package to Ukraine after they learned of the grim intelligence assessment.

(antiwar.com)

Even doe hard warmongers are seeing the fruitless endeavor of this war….

Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), a co-chair of the congressional Ukraine Caucus, said this week that he’s not sure if the Ukraine war is “winnable” and called for the US to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pursue peace talks.

Harris is also a member of the Freedom Caucus, which has many members who have opposed US support for Ukraine. But Harris has been a staunch supporter of the proxy war against Russia throughout the conflict.

“Is this more a stalemate? Should we be realistic about it? I think we probably should,” Harris said at a town hall on Tuesday night, according to POLITICO. Discussing the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Harris said, “I’ll be blunt, it’s failed.”

“I’m not sure it’s winnable anymore,” Harris added. His comments are a sign that the new $24 billion in spending on the Ukraine war that the White House has asked Congress to approve won’t receive as much support as previous packages.

(antiwar.com)

Even some NATO officials are seeing the inevitable close of this conflict…..

A NATO official has suggested Ukraine could cede some territory to Russia in exchange for joining the Western military alliance.

The comments were made on Tuesday by Stian Jenssen, chief of staff for NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and reported by the Norwegian newspaper VG. “I think that a solution could be for Ukraine to give up territory, and get NATO membership in return,” he said, adding that it should be up to Ukraine when and on what terms to negotiate.

Jenssen said the issue of Ukraine’s status after the war is being discussed within the alliance and that some countries have raised the possibility of Kyiv ceding some territory. The comments come as the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalling, and Western officials are admitting it’s very unlikely to succeed.

The comments mark the first time that a high-level NATO official suggested Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia. The US and NATO have backed Ukraine’s demands for peace, which include Russia withdrawing from all the territory it has captured since invading, as well as giving up Crimea, which has been Russian-controlled since 2014.

(antiwar.com)

To push back on the comment above….the Supreme leader of NATO had to keep the home fires burning by stating…..

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday said that only Ukraine can decide when to enter peace talks to end the war with Russia and vowed the alliance’s support for an open-ended conflict.

“It is the Ukrainians, and only the Ukrainians, who can decide when there are conditions in place for negotiations and who can decide at the negotiating table what is an acceptable solution,” Stoltenberg said.

His comments came after his chief of staff, Stian Jenssen, drew a backlash for suggesting on Tuesday that Ukraine could cede territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership, an idea both Ukrainian and Russian officials scoffed at. Jenssen appeared to walk back his comments on Wednesday, saying he made a “mistake.”

Stoltenberg said that the only path to a settlement is “to support Ukraine militarily. If you want a lasting, just peace, then military support for Ukraine is the way to get there. There is no doubt about that.” The NATO chief has made similar comments throughout the war and previously said sending more weapons is the quickest path toward peace.

(antiwar.com)

“If you want a lasting, just peace, then military support for Ukraine is the way to get there”…..that is like saying the only way to preserve virginity is through fornicating.

Enough already!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

More News From Ukraine

Some may feel this conflict is old hat these days….I do not….not when billions are being wasted on a proxy war that will have no winner.

The White House on Thursday asked Congress to approve a $40 billion bill that includes nearly $24 billion for additional spending on the war in Ukraine.

According to CNN, the $24 billion for the Ukraine war includes $13 billion in military aid and $7.3 billion in economic and humanitarian assistance. It also includes $3.3 billion for infrastructure projects for regional countries impacted by the war.

The request comes after a poll from CNN found that 55% of Americans are against more spending on the war in Ukraine.

(antiwar.com)

First that counteroffensive….how’s that working out?

To be honest (that is refreshing for it is something the pro-war media is incapable of providing) it is not going well….

A Western official told CNN in an article published Tuesday that it’s “extremely” unlikely that Ukraine will make progress in its counteroffensive in the coming weeks that will alter the balance of the war with Russia.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” an unnamed senior Western diplomat said.

Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) also spoke to CNN about the counteroffensive and said the briefings Congress has received on the assault are “sobering.” He said the situation was the “most difficult time of the war.”

…

Ukraine is struggling to break through multiple layers of Russian defense, most notably vast minefields. The Wall Street Journal quoted a Ukrainian platoon commander in an article published Tuesday who said the Ukrainians are “demining the fields with bodies,” demonstrating the massive human cost. “It’s awful,” the platoon commander said.

Another Western diplomat told CNN that Ukraine hasn’t even gotten through Russia’s first defensive line. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard,” the diplomat said.

(antiwar.com)

Let me be the first….it is a stalemate and will continue to be so.

Several NATO countries have provided Ukraine with tanks ,billed as the deciding factor, and those tanks are not doing so well against thee defensive line of the Russians….so the US will send in their version of a tank, the Abrams….

The first batch of Abrams tanks that the US is providing Ukraine was authorized for shipment over the weekend and is expected to arrive in the country in early fall, the US Army’s top acquisition official said Monday.

“The last of the set was officially accepted by the US government or the production facility over the weekend. So they are done,” said Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush, according to The War Zone.

The US will be providing Ukraine with 31 refurbished M1A1 Abrams, an older variant of the tank. The US initially said it would send the newer M1A2 Abrams, but the Pentagon decided to speed up the plan by sending older tanks. The M1A2s needed to be manufactured and would have taken years to deliver.

Bush said that while the tanks are ready, it will still take time to deliver them and send necessary related equipment, which includes “ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities.”

(antiwar.com)

NATO countries like Germany, Poland and the UK have sent tanks and most have become expensive scrap….but the US must add theirs to the heap.

Sadly these will not make a difference…..but maybe depleted uranium rounds will swing the day.

Not to worry the US will keep throwing money at this situation until the well runs dry….

The White House is expected to formally ask Congress to authorize additional funding for the Ukraine war as soon as this week, Punchbowl News reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter.

The funding would be in the form of an “emergency” supplemental bill that would also include money for domestic disaster relief and potentially military aid for Taiwan.

One source said the request is expected to be “north of $10 billion,” but the Biden administration is still working on setting the final number. So far, Congress has authorized $113 billion to spend on the war in Ukraine.

(antiwar.com)

You see this war continues whether you’re interested or not….people continue to die and money is being wasted on a quagmire (a better obtuse word than stalemate).

I often bitch about all the news and we have no independent voice from the actual people of Ukraine….and now we have something close….

According to the Washington Post, many citizens of Ukraine are adopting a darker mood about the war with Russia, and national unity is beginning to fray. The change in sentiment comes as Kiev’s spring counteroffensive fails to retake significant territory despite surging casualties. 

“Ukrainians, much in need of good news, are simply not getting any,” the Washington Post reported Thursday. One Ukrainian, Alla Blyzniuk, interviewed by the outlet, said, “[before] people were united.” Now, she described, a sense of collective “disappointment.”

The sense of despair is driven by massive casualties in Kiev’s counteroffensive. Blyzniuk said that most soldiers sent to the front die in just two to three days. Last week, Politico reported that Kiev had committed 150,000 troops to fight along three fronts. Nevertheless, the Pentagon admits that Ukrainian forces have failed to make any significant gains. 

Washington publicly claims it has provided Kiev with everything Ukraine needs to wage a successful counteroffensive. However, Western officials admitted to the Wall Street Journal that Ukrainian forces lacked critical equipment. “When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces.” The report continued, “But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day. They Haven’t.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/ukrainians-begin-to-despair-as-bloody-counteroffensive-yields-small-gains/

And the waste continues.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Sanctions–A Horrible Idea

I have made my thoughts on sanctions abundantly clear….in case you missed it….as a penalty for bad behavior hey do not work!

If you need more information (most will not for that would mean reading something before commenting)…..

Sanctions And Tariffs

Is Sanctions The Answer?

I told you I had strong opinions on sanctions.

They have not worked on Cuba….or Venezuela….or any other nation we deem as a bad player….and that goes for Russia.

The West has put into place massive sanctions against Russia since they invaded Ukraine….and we continue to find new ways to sanction the nation.

Let’s look just how effective these measures have been to Russia.

The International Monetary Fund has said it expects the Russian economy to grow by 1.5% this year despite the US-led Western sanctions campaign against the country, which President Biden once vowed would “turn the ruble into rubble.”

The Russian economy shrank by 2.1% last year, but it has bounced back as Russia is adjusting to the sanctions. The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday called the economic war a “stalemate,” comparing it to the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The report said the sanctions initially made it harder for Russia to acquire microchips and other technical components, but Moscow then found sanctions loopholes through neighboring countries. Russia has also had no problems selling its oil as its found new markets in India and elsewhere in Asia.

The Journal cited analysts who said the sanctions will hurt Russia in the long term, but Moscow continues to forge stronger ties and significantly increase trade with China. An alternative to the US-dominated global financial system is slowly being formed by Russia, China, and other countries targeted with US sanctions.

The US has successfully crushed the economies of smaller countries with sanctions, but the sanctions on Russia were the harshest imposed on such a large economy. US sanctions on smaller nations are losing some of their power as China and Russia offer alternative markets.

For example, Iranian oil sales in 2022 exceeded those in 2016 before the US withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on the country. Most of the new Iranian oil sales have been to China.

(antiwar.com)

So the economic attack is not hurting Russian economy….why keep looking for more ways to fail in this corner?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Why Ukraine?

I see that many are tired of this situation/story….so if we ignore it is not a thing anymore, right?

While they are ignoring the US is still wasting billions of dollars and little is being decided with the exception of the insane amount of money being made off this conflict.

But hey….ignorance is bliss and the American people are very blissful these days.

To return to the post….why Ukraine?

This is exactly what no one wants to ask because they relish the skewed headlines of the MSM on this issue.

We all know that Russia invaded Ukraine over 500 days ago and this conflicts has all the barbarity of war…..but has anyone, especially the media, bothered to ask why Russia invaded?

Personally I do not think it was at all about conquest but rather hoping to force a compromise on Ukraine and then it turned ugly.

None in the MSM as far as I know….a few bloggers like myself have tried to explain what prompted this action from Russia….but as usual no one wanted to know and dropped back to Russia marching down main street analogy…that explained nothing.

So I will try again and hopefully readers will see the folly (probably not)….

This article was written in 2022 and outlines six reasons for Russia’s invasion….

Here are six crucial pieces of background that the western media will not tell you.

The NATO Promise

Putin’s demands are only bold if it is bold to ask NATO to keep its promises; his demands are only impossible if it is impossible for NATO to keep its promises.

On February 9, 1990, Secretary of State James Baker assured Gorbachev that if NATO got Germany – a huge concession – NATO would not expand one inch east of Germany. The next day, West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher made the same promise to his Soviet counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadz. Earlier, on January 31, 1990, Genscher had already publicly declared in a major speech that there would not be “an expansion of NATO territory to the east, in other words, closer to the borders of the Soviet Union.”

Recently declassified documents make it clear that all the western powers, including not only the US and Germany but also the UK and France, repeatedly made Russia the same promise.

Seven years later, when the US had already broken that promise, Clinton made Russia a second promise. Having expanded NATO far east of Germany, at least they would not permanently station substantial combat forces. That was the promise the US signed in the NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations. It was a reiteration of the earlier February 1990 promise that, not only NATO membership, but NATO troops would not extend east.

So, far from being bold or asking the ridiculous, what the media will not tell you is that Putin is not asking for any new Western concessions. He is asking only that the West honor the commitments it has already made.

Six Things the Media Won’t Tell You About Ukraine

A report illustrates how the M-IC sets the narrative for the war in Ukraine….


Wealthy donors have long funded think tanks with official-sounding names that produce research that reflects the interests of those funders (Extra!, 7/13). The weapons industry is a major contributor to these idea factories; a recent report from the Quincy Institute (6/1/23) demonstrates just how much influence war profiteers have on the national discourse.

The Quincy Institute—whose own start-up funding came mainly from George Soros and Charles Koch—looked at 11 months of Ukraine War coverage in the New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, from March 1, 2022, through January 31, 2023, and counted each time one of 33 leading think tanks was mentioned. Of the 15 think tanks most often mentioned in the coverage, only one—Human Rights Watch—does not take funding from Pentagon contractors. Quincy’s analysis found that the media were seven times more likely to cite think tanks with war industry ties than they were to cite think tanks without war industry ties.

With 157 mentions each, the top two think tanks were the Atlantic Council and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Both of these think tanks receive millions from the war industry. The Atlantic Council has long been the brain trust of NATO, the military organization whose expansion towards Russia’s borders was a critical factor in Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. (See FAIR.org, 3/4/22.) Both think tanks receive hundreds of thousands of dollars from Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, companies which have already been awarded billions of dollars in Pentagon contracts as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Report Shows How Military Industrial Complex Sets Media Narrative on Ukraine

Look at the so-called ‘experts’ in the MSM….just about all are employed by a industry funded think tank or employed directly by one of the profiteering contractors….and yet that is where people get their opinions and seldom look beyond.

So the conversation bottoms out with flag waving and fear mongering that explains nothing but the ignorance of those that refuse to look past CNN or whoever.

You should care because it is your money being wasted and pissed away.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

I Know You May Be Tired Of My Ukraine Diatribes

Hang on to your jock straps….there will be MORE!

Tired of my constant bitching about this Ukraine thing?….well get over it for I am far from over….

First there is this counteroffensive that is plugging along…..but how is it going that it finally was put into operation?

Hopes were high throughout the spring, as a Ukrainian military equipped with Western weapons prepared to launch a counteroffensive that would reclaim land seized by Russia, which had invaded its much smaller neighbor for the second time in early 2022.

“We are getting ready for the counteroffensive, so that we can finally end this war,” one Ukrainian soldier said in late May. The counteroffensive began about three weeks later, with Ukraine making initial gains in Donetsk and Luhansk, two regions in eastern Ukraine that were illegally annexed by Russia last year.

Since then, however, the pace of progress has slowed considerably, leading to some frustration from Ukraine’s backers in the West, who hoped that the heavy weaponry and training they had provided would drive the Russian occupiers out of the country’s southeastern provinces.

So far, however, Russia’s defensive positions appear to be holding — while questions about the future of the conflict are growing.

(yahoo.com)

A report has come out that the West know Ukraine was not ready for a major counteroffensive regardless the chest thumping by Zelenskyy (why two ‘Y”s)

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Western officials knew Ukrainian forces didn’t have enough training or equipment for their counteroffensive but hoped they would be able to break through anyway.

The report reads: “When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day. They Haven’t.”

Leading up to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was launched in June, the Discord leaks and media reports revealed that the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory from Russia. But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway, as it rejected the idea of a pause in fighting.

Ukrainian forces have struggled to push through Russia’s defenses, which include vast minefields, resulting in heavy Ukrainian armor losses in the first few weeks of the counteroffensive. US officials speaking to The New York Times and The Washington Post have blamed the lack of success on Ukraine, saying Ukrainian forces are not using the “combined arms” tactics they learned from NATO countries.

(antiwar.com)

Since the ‘counteroffensive’ is looking like a stalemate at best….why would the West keep prodding Ukraine to launch one?

What about those weapons that the West sends….shipment after shipment….and yet….

Ukrainian President Voldymr Zelensky said in an interview aired on Sunday that the Ukrainian counteroffensive started later than he wanted due to a lack of weapons and training.

“We did have plans to start it in spring. But we didn’t, because, frankly, we had not enough munitions and armaments and not enough brigades properly trained in these weapons, still, more, that the training missions were held outside Ukraine,” Zelensky told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.

During the lead-up to the counteroffensive, which was launched in early June, Ukrainian troops were being trained inside NATO countries. Zelensky said that the delay allowed Russia to lay more minefields, which Ukrainian forces have struggled to get through.

“And because we started it a bit later on it can be said and it will be shared truth understood by all of the experts that it provided Russia with time to mine all of our land and build several lines of defense,” he said.

Despite the massive amount of weapons and ammunition the US and its allies have poured into Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Western officials did not believe Ukraine had enough to dislodge Russian forces. Ukraine’s Western backers hoped the Ukrainians would have been able to break through, but the offensive is faltering.

US officials speaking to the media have blamed Ukraine’s lack of success on its tactics, complaining Ukrainian soldiers are being too cautious and aren’t using the “combined arms” training they learned from NATO that integrates infantry, artillery, and armor. But the US and its NATO allies would never launch such an offensive without air superiority. When Ukraine did launch a major attack with armored vehicles in the first weeks of the counteroffensive, it resulted in heavy losses.

(antiwar.com)

Not enough weaponry?

Finally you know all those weapons that we send daily to Ukraine how are they being used?

The Pentagon inspector general found the arms Washington sent to Kiev did not undergo the required inspections. A report from the inspector general found weapons the US sent to Ukraine in the hands of criminals and on the black market. 

The Arms Control Act requires the White House to establish an inspection system for weapons the US sells or gifts to third countries. The law mandates the monitoring continues to the end-use of the weapon. In Ukraine, the embassy in Kiev has been assigned responsibility for monitoring the weapons transfers. 

The Department of Defense inspector general report on American weapons transfers to Ukraine from February to September of last year found that legally required monitoring was not taking place. “The DoD is unable to conduct [End Use Monitoring] in Ukraine because completing [End Use Monitoring] in accordance with DoD policy requires in-person access to the defense equipment provided,” it said. “Intelligence methods provide some accountability for observable platforms, such as missiles and helicopters, but smaller items, such as night vision devices, have limited accountability.”

“The DoD OIG found deficiencies in the DoD’s transfer of military equipment to the Government of Ukraine requiring [End Use Monitoring], including Javelin missiles, Javelin Command Launch Units, and night vision devices; and in Ukraine’s security and accountability of US.-provided military equipment requiring [End Use Monitoring],” the report added. 

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/dod-ig-american-weapons-in-ukraine-funneled-to-arms-traffickers-criminals/

Is the West treating Ukraine like cannon fodder?

Read this person’s opinion on that question.

Using Ukraine as Cannon Fodder

And the struggle continues….

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

A Post-Putin Russia

With the war raging in Ukraine and a few minor shots at his authority many Americans want to see Putin gone and soon forgotten.

I know most people just want Putin gone does not matter how but it does matter and things could be worse.

But what would be the pathways that Russia could take to get to a Post-Putin Russia?

From time to time I get some post doc papers and I enjoy other people’s take on international situations…..this one is about the post-Putin Russia possibilities.

What is clear is that Putin will not take up Prigozhin’s suggestion of blaming others for the disastrous war in Ukraine in order to end it on terms short of what now appears to be an unattainable Russian victory. It might not be until Putin is succeeded by another leader that Russia can do this. But the Wagner rebellion, even though unsuccessful, has raised the possibility that Putin is vulnerable, and that a successor to him could arise.

Putin, of course, may continue to exert his rule over Russia through the end of the 2020s, the 2030s, or possibly even longer. He succeeded, after all, in facing down the Wagner rebellion. But the Wagner rebellion raises the possibility that he may suddenly and unexpectedly fall from power some time soon. Nobody, including Putin himself, knows for sure when or how his rule over Russia will come to an end. But whether as a result of his death, incapacity, overthrow, or decision not to run for re-election in 2024 (this last being the least likely), Putin’s reign will definitely come to an end at some point.

Just as it is uncertain when Putin’s hold on power will come to an end, it is also uncertain how much or even whether Russia will change after it does. This article will explore the likelihood of five possible post-Putin pathways for Russia: 1) Putinism without Putin; 2) democratization; 3) prudent authoritarianism; 4) Chinese overlordship; and 5) the breakup of Russia.

Just as important, this article will also explore the possibilities for six of Putin’s current domestic and foreign policy priorities to be continued or revised under each of these five potential pathways. These six Putin priorities are: 1) maintaining dictatorship over Russia; 2) maintaining or even enhancing Russia’s great power status; 3) continuing the ongoing war against Ukraine in order to at minimum retain control of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russian forces; 4) continuing to see America and the West as Russia’s principal security threats; 5) continuing Russia’s strategic partnership with China despite any misgivings Moscow may have over increasing Russian dependence on Beijing; and 6) maintaining Russia’s territorial integrity. First, though, something needs to be said about Putin’s own commitment to these priorities as well as his ability to pursue them.

Post-Putin Russia: Five Potential Pathways

Some interesting takes on the possibilities….my thought is that there will be a form of what this paper calls ‘prudent authoritarianism’….that will replace Putin for a time.

I know it is a long paper but do road it and let me know what direction you  think Russia would take after Putin.

Just something to think about….you can do it if you try.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Zelensky Will Say Whatever It Takes

I have noticed that the opinions on the Ukraine conflict are lacking….that is concerning for the US is pumping money and equipment into the country at break neck speed and no one cares enough to pay attention.

For instance recently Zelensky has made a bold statement…..

The “Z” Man played the nuke card knowing that the West is ate up with nuclear paranoia.

Volodymyr Zelensky wished the United States a happy Independence Day and offered thanks for supporting Ukraine in its defense against the Russian invasion. Later in the day, however, the Ukrainian president delivered a more ominous-sounding message, alleging that, per Ukrainian intelligence, Russian forces had positioned “objects resembling explosives” on the roofs of certain facilities at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, per the Hill. In his nightly address, Zelensky noted this was being done “perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant”—meaning, an attack meant to insinuate that Ukraine had gone after its own power plant, which has been under Russian control since the beginning of the war.

Indeed, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based nonprofit think tank, tells Newsweek that Russia “is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the [Zaporizhzhia plant], including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack.” Renat Karchaa, an adviser to the head of Rosenergoatom, which manages Russia’s nuclear power program, told Russian TV on Tuesday that Ukraine planned on attacking the Zaporizhzhia plant overnight on Wednesday, “with the use of high-precision long-range weapons,” including a “high-precision rocket with a warhead stuffed with radioactive waste,” per Tass.

In a Tuesday statement cited by the Guardian, Ukraine’s armed forces said that “operational data” relayed that the alleged explosive devices had been placed on top of the power plant’s third and fourth reactors, with an attack potentially coming “in the near future.” “If detonated, they would not damage the reactors but would create an image of shelling from the Ukrainian side,” the group’s statement noted. The Guardian notes that no evidence has been provided by Karchaa, Zelensky, or the Ukrainian military for their allegations.

A year ago this news would have sent the warmongers into a frenzy of diatribes and condemnations….today barely a wimpy.

Then a report from the IAEA does not confirm Zelensky’s attempt to generate more sympathy that equates into more money.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday that its inspectors have seen no sign of explosives at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Ukraine despite claims from Kyiv that Russia had planted bombs.

According to an IAEA press release, Director-General Rafael Grossi said the agency’s experts “have in recent days and weeks inspected parts of the facility — including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond — and have also conducted regular walk-downs across the site, so far without observing any visible indications of mines or explosives.”

The press release said Grossi has requested more access to the ZNPP, specifically the “rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential, as well as access to parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system at the plant.”

Grossi said with “military tension and activities increasing in the region where this major nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground. Their independent and objective reporting would help clarify the current situation at the site, which is crucial at a time like this with unconfirmed allegations and counter allegations.”

(antiwar.com)

Once again Zelensky proves what a bullshit artist he can be.

Americans have become bored with this conflict….they have moved on to other topics that they can piss and moan about and do nothing about but find fault with others writings.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

That Ukraine War

Holiday is done so back to the grind.

For over a year, although it does not seem to be that important anymore, Ukraine conflict has been raging but in all that time there has been little American public dissent to our massive waste of money on this regional conflict.

Why is it so?

There are many versions of why this all began…there is the NATO thing…..there is the corruption from the previous admin of the country….then there is the voice of the paranoid….to protect democracy.

Has anyone noticed that there is little to no debate on this conflict?

And what debate there has been has been irrational at best.

Because war is uncertain and reliable information is sparse, no one knows how the war in Ukraine will play out. Nor can any of us be completely certain what the optimal course of action is. We all have our own theories, hunches, beliefs, and hopes, but nobody’s crystal ball is 100 percent reliable in the middle of a war.

You might think that this situation would encourage observers to approach the whole issue with a certain humility and give alternative perspectives a fair hearing even when they disagree with one’s own. Instead, debates about responsibility for the war and the proper course of action to follow have been unusually nasty and intolerant, even by modern standards of social media vituperation. I’ve been trying to figure out why this is the case.

What I find especially striking is how liberal interventionists, unrepentant neoconservatives, and a handful of progressives who are all-in for Ukraine seem to have no doubts whatsoever about the origins of the conflict or the proper course of action to follow today. For them, Russian President Vladimir Putin is solely and totally responsible for the war, and the only mistakes others may have made in the past was to be too nice to Russia and too willing to buy its oil and gas. The only outcome they are willing to entertain is a complete Ukrainian victory, ideally accompanied by regime change in Moscow, the imposition of reparations to finance Ukrainian reconstruction, and war crimes trials for Putin and his associates. Convinced that anything less than this happy result will reward aggression, undermine deterrence, and place the current world order in jeopardy, their mantra is: “Whatever it takes for as long as it takes.”

The Perpetually Irrational Ukraine Debate

This whole conflict thing, in my opinion, has become a total clown show.

If the truth be told, we are getting sick and tired of the little piss-ant who runs the cease-pool of corruption, tyranny, delusion and death called Ukraine. This clown – and that’s what he is actually trained as – just can’t seem to stop stridently demanding money, arms and support from the rest of the world and lecturing everyone to fall into line or else.

In his actual clown days, of course, Volodymyr Zelensky was known for the act depicted below. But when it comes to the collective West, the latter seems to enjoy the fact that the Ukrainian president continues to bang away upon it, relentlessly pounding out a melody of me, me and more.

But lately Zelensky has really gone over the top, peddling the hideous canard that if we don’t enable him to fight “them” over there with everything and all that he demands by way of money and weapons, we will soon bleed and die against “them” over here.

That’s the “Putin is going to invade Europe next and maybe America too”, nonsense. It’s actually groundless blithering idiocy, and yet Washington treats him as a brave ally and statesman:

Enough of the Ukrainian Clown Show!

Before someone thinks that have it all figured out then let me set the record straight….I do NOT support Russia’s aggression at all….I think they are acting with all the barbarity they can muster.

My point is this conflict has little do with the security of the US regardless what the mental midgets try to tell you.

Personally I think the this conflict has caused by a failure in US diplomacy….a failure of the State Department.

Nothing written excuses or condones Russia’s actions. The Russian invasion is a war of aggression and a violation of international law. An attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion, occupation and war crimes committed, and it certainly does not imply the Russians had no other option but this war. Rather, this essay seeks to communicate that this war was not unprovoked and that the actions of the US and NATO over decades led to a war of choice between the US, NATO, Ukraine and Russia. A war long wanted by megalomaniacs and war profiteers in DC, London, Brussels, Kyv and Moscow became realized in February 2022.

A War Long Wanted: Diplomatic Malpractice in Ukraine

This is where the conversation breaks down….most seem to think that Putin one morning woke up and thought screw it let’s invade Ukraine….there is so much more to this than most are willing to try and understand.

Finally on the democracy thing in Ukraine….looks like Zelensky has found a way to extend his tenure as leader of Ukraine without the inconvenience of an election.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told BBC last week that there will be no Ukrainian presidential election in 2024 if martial law is still in effect, The New Voice of Ukraine reported.

Zelensky’s five-year term is due to end in 2024, but his comments suggest that it will be extended indefinitely if the war isn’t over by then. He made similar comments about Ukraine’s parliamentary elections, which are due to be held in October of this year, in an interview with The Washington Post last month.

When asked if parliamentary elections will be held this fall, Zelensky said, “If we have martial law, we cannot have elections. The constitution prohibits any elections during martial law. If there is no martial law, then there will be.”

Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, also said this month that elections can’t happen in Ukraine under martial law, which Zelensky declared when Russia invaded. “Ukrainian legislation stipulates it is impossible to hold any elections during martial law. And this makes sense,” he said.

Stefanchuk added that if elections happen, it could “lead to the rupture of the state, which our enemy is waiting for. That is why I think the most correct and wise decision is to hold elections immediately after the end of martial law.”

After declaring martial law, Zelensky took steps to consolidate his power, including banning the main opposition party in Ukraine’s parliament, Opposition Platform — For Life, which held 44 seats at the time. He also banned ten other opposition parties and nationalized the media.

(antiwar.com)

Another black eye for democracy

And that is the way it is…..

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Could Negotiations Be In The Wind?

The news of the mash-up between Wagner Group and Putin has brought about an interesting turn that could help the Ukraine-Russia thing.

I seriously doubt it.

The war in Ukraine has dragged on for over a year and there needs to be a stopping point….could this be a time for negotiations?

The war between Russia and Ukraine has become more complex in the wake of the past weekend, which found Yevgeny Prigozhin marching his troops toward Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin finding a safe haven for Prigozhin in Belarus. The conventional wisdom among politicians and pundits is that this is an opportunity for Ukraine and its Western allies to increase the pressure on Russia. Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, for example, favors “better and more weapons and better and more sanctions as fast as possible,” believing that Putin is more likely to “negotiate an end to this war if he is losing on the battlefield.” The problem, however, is that the war remains unwinnable; neither side has the ability to achieve a decisive victory.

In view of President Putin’s failure to escalate against Prigozhin and his willingness to negotiate a solution that made him look weak at home, there is possibly a place for diplomacy to resolve the war in Ukraine as well. Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in the near term seem unlikely, but the possibility of a U.S. president making a difference should not be ignored. The fact that Putin refused to prosecute Prigozhin, and is willing to allow his mercenary forces to join the Russian army points to the Russian leader’s hopes to avoid additional internal conflict. It’s hard to know what Putin is thinking, but his willingness to compromise with Prigozhin as well as the fateful domestic challenge that he faces could make the Russian leader willing to entertain the possibility of negotiation. His dreams of restoring the Russian empire have been shattered.

If so, only the United States can address the national security problems of both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine will want protection from future Russian acts of aggression. Russia will want to lessen the threat of Western encirclement on its vulnerable borders. No matter how this war ends, Russia will find itself in an existential security situation on its entire western frontier that only the United States can ameliorate. In addition, only the United States can lead the international effort to rebuild Ukraine. The United States will be indispensable to this process.

Has the Putin-Prigozhin Confrontation Opened a Door for Negotiation?

I do not think that any movement toward peace will come from this mutiny thing.

Why?

Simple the US does not want it right now.

Why say that?

I am so glad you asked.

The hypocrisy gets starker by the day. The same western media that strains to warn of the dangers of disinformation – at least when it comes to rivals on social media – barely bothers to conceal its own role in purveying disinformation in the Ukraine war.

In fact, the propaganda peddled by the media grows more audacious by the day – as two stories last week from the frontlines illustrate only too clearly.

Dominating headlines has been the environmental catastrophe created by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam under Russian control. Flood waters from the Dnipro river have ruined vast swathes of land downriver fromthe dam and forced many tens of thousands to flee their homes.

Rightly, the wrecking of the dam is being called an act of “ecological terrorism” – the second major one associated with the war, following last September’s blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines supplying Russian gas to Europe.

Another Act of Terror. How the Media Do PR for Biden and Zelensky

“Ecological Terrorism”?

Really?  What would the use of depleted uranium be?

Thoughts?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Ukraine’s Long Promised Counteroffensive

++++Sorry for the delay on this post but things spiraled and it was a small thing compared.++++

The counteroffensive Ukraine’s Eastern most regions has finally begun…..from all reports it is a bloody ordeal for both sides.

After all the equipment and a year’s worth of training and the Ukrainians are not as successful as they brag they would be…..

Western officials told CNN that Ukraine’s bloody counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front” as Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through Russia’s defenses.

The report said that according to Western assessments, Russia’s lines of defense have been well fortified, and Russian forces have been able to bog down Ukrainian armored vehicles with missile strikes and minefields.

One official said Ukraine’s forces were “vulnerable” to Russia’s minefields and described the Russian defenses as “competent.” The officials stressed that the counteroffensive was still in its early stages and said they remained “optimistic” that Ukraine could eventually regain some territory.

Bloomberg reported that Ukrainian officials reported progress in the counteroffensive has halted. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the assault “is not an easy walk — this is not a Hollywood movie,” echoing comments made by President Volodymyr Zelensky a day earlier.

Zelensky acknowledged on Wednesday that the counteroffensive is going “slower than desired” but vowed Ukrainian forces would fight on. “No matter how far we advance in our counteroffensive, we will not agree to a frozen conflict because that is war, that is a prospectless development for Ukraine,” he said.

According to the Discord leaks and media reports, the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory, but the Biden administration pushed for the violent counteroffensive anyway and has rejected the idea of a ceasefire or peace talks.

If the US did not believe that Ukraine could be successful why would they push for a massive offensive?

Even Zelensky with all his censorship measures in place has admitted things are not going so well.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is going “slower than desired” as Ukrainian forces have made little progress and are taking heavy losses.

“Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” Zelensky told BBC in an interview published Wednesday. “What’s at stake is people’s lives.”

So far, Ukraine has claimed it captured eight small villages in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and in the eastern Donetsk Oblast since the counteroffensive began earlier this month, minimal gains that have come at a high cost.

Zelensky said his forces were having difficulty because Russia had mined a lot of areas. “Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best,” he said.

(antiwar.com)

Even officials in the Ukrainian defense forces have started admitting they will take less than they had originally anticipated.

Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive has been underway for over two weeks, and Kiev has little to show for the loss of life and military equipment expended the in the operations. On Monday, a Ukrainian military official attempted to lower expectations for the mission, as US lawmakers say future support for Kiev depends on whether it can reclaim territory from Russian forces. 

In an interview with the Czech Current Time TV station Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov downplayed how much territory Kiev will retake in the counteroffensive. “The Russians had the opportunity to prepare. There is an incredible density of minefields,” he said. “Our officers, our commanders are maneuvering, look for opportunities, move carefully. I suggest not pushing them, not pushing them, they are doing their job. And they will do it.”

https://libertarianinstitute.org/news/kiev-aims-to-lower-expectations-for-counteroffensive/

There will be more from IST as the counteroffensive drags on and on….watch for it.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”