2020 Latest Abbreviated Primary

In these days of virus panic and we are still exercising our right to vote (while we still have it)…..3 more 2020 primaries were settled yesterday.

The MSM can be proud of their efforts to make the corporate stooge Biden the nominee…..Florida, Illinois and Arizona…..

Polls have closed in the three states that went ahead with their primaries Tuesday, and the result is another dominating night for Joe Biden. The former VP cemented his lead over Bernie Sanders in the delegate race by sweeping all three contests—Florida, Illinois, and Arizona, as called by the AP. Despite Ohio’s decision to postpone its own primary Tuesday, the night still has a large number of delegates at stake, 441, and margins of victory will be important. In incomplete results, Biden led 61% to 22% in Florida, 59% to 36% in Illinois, and 42% to 29% in Arizona. Tulsi Gabbard was registering at less than 1% in all three states. Florida was the biggest prize of the night, with 219 delegates up for grabs.

Generally speaking, missing poll workers, reshuffled voting locations, and a lack of disinfectant supplies made for a “chaotic” day of voting, notes the Washington Post. On Tuesday night, both candidates addressed the COVID-19 crisis. “You know, it’s in moments like these we realize we need to put politics aside and work together as Americans,” Biden said. “The coronavirus doesn’t care if you’re a Democrat or Republican.” Sanders, for his part, said “this is an unprecedented moment that will require an unprecedented amount of money,” via livestream from DC, per CNN. He estimated it would take “$2 trillion to prevent deaths, job losses and to avoid an economic catastrophe.”

The countdown to the convention has started and Biden is looking like the nominee….

Looks like another “hold your nose and vote” election.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

May We Call It A Mini Super Tuesday?

Yesterday the 2020 election moved to 6 other states……among which is Michigan….an almost must win for the nominee….

Without more editorializing let’s go to the result.

Bernie Sanders’ chances of winning the Democratic nomination just got much more difficult. The AP called all-important Michigan (125 delegates) for Joe Biden Tuesday night. Sanders won the state in 2016 in a stunning upset over Hillary Clinton, but he could not repeat the magic. He trailed Biden by 12 percentage points with more than half the results counted, per CNN. The former VP earlier won in Mississippi (36) and Missouri (68) by wide margins. Polls also have closed in North Dakota (14), Idaho (20) and Washington state (89), but those races have not been called.

The Washington Post reports that Biden has won the Idaho caucuses with around 49% of the vote. In 2016, Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in Idaho with 78% of the vote. In Washington, which was also Sanders country in 2016, Biden and Sanders were in a “virtual tie” early Wednesday, with 32.7% for Sanders and 32.5% for Biden, with only 2,000 out of 1 million votes counted separating the candidates, reports the Seattle Times. In what may be his only win of the night, Sanders has a big lead in North Dakota’s caucuses, though the state’s 14 delegates may end up being split evenly between him and Biden.

Exit polls from the early states show that Biden got strong support from African-American voters, reports the Washington Post. Late deciders and older white voters also tended to go Biden’s way. Sanders won Washington state in 2016, and he had a decent chance of winning there again on Tuesday, per Politico. Still, the loss in battleground Michigan is seen as a serious blow to his chances of winning the nomination. A total of 352 delegates were up for grabs Tuesday, which means that nearly half of all delegates in the 2020 primary will have been awarded when the latest results are tallied.

Just one month into the election and we now have an idea who will be the Dem nominee (as if there was much doubt if you listen to the media form the last year)

And the election drags on.

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“lego ergo scribo”

Primaries And Caucasus–Why?

This week will be a busy week…..the vote in Iowa, the impeachment trial and the State of the Union…..busy, busy, busy!

The 2020 election is on….let the sham begin!

This is #1 in a series that I will post on the process of picking a candidate and president….

It is finally here…..the 2020 campaign and primaries season….that political theater that does little but help the media make billions in ad dollars and the media has a way to drive the conversation and help pick the candidate.

Personally, I think the whole system needs to be put down the toilet where they belong.

This is no way to pick the nominee.

Let’s start at the top: Our system for choosing presidential nominees makes little sense. As Brookings Institution senior fellow Elaine Kamarck wrote recently, “There are many different ways to organize a presidential nominating system and almost all of them are more rational and orderly than the hodgepodge of systems that voters experience today.”

To start, Iowa and New Hampshire go first simply because they do, even though they are wildly unrepresentative of the nation as a whole. They’re smaller, way more white and way more rural, and, in the case of Iowa, more evangelical, with a side of bizarre special-interest politics in the form of the ethanol lobby. Yet they shake up the race, thinning the herd before most of the country has a chance to vote.

https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2016-02-19/americas-primary-elections-are-broken

Really!  These primaries are worthless and boring….only the media loves them….below was from 2004….

If you’re Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe — who has reportedly told all the contenders that if they’re not winning by March 10, they need to drop out of the race — this is good news. The sooner Democrats agree on a nominee, the sooner they can prepare for the general election. It’s also not troubling if you’re a voter in New Hampshire or Iowa, because you will have helped select the party’s candidate.

But if you’re a voter in California, New York or any of the 10 states that vote in the “Super Tuesday” primaries March 2, it’s a different story. You’re going to have a very limited choice — many candidates will already have dropped out of the race, and the front-runner will probably have so many delegates and so much momentum that no one can catch up.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-feb-15-oe-panagopoulos15-story.html

I have rattled on for long enough….how many know exactly what the primary system is all about (a show of hands please)……

A little history is a good thing……these things are not provided for in the Constitution……but yet here they are…..

The presidential primaries are one of the most important elements of the American constitutional order. Given that general elections give voters just two starkly opposed choices, it’s largely through the primaries that nuance enters the political process. Parties define themselves by whom they select to run for president, and the ideological alignments that result end up defining the contours of political conflict.

And yet, despite primaries’ central role, nothing about them is laid out in the Constitution.

In fact, the framers didn’t envision American politics taking the form of two-party competition, so they gave no thought to how parties would select their candidates.

This, in turn, is part of what makes the primaries so fascinating. While the Constitution itself is incredibly difficult to change, party nominating rules and state laws are much more flexible.

https://www.vox.com/a/presidential-primaries-2016-republican-democrat/presidential-primaries-explained

Now you have the history…..now what I would rather see….

I would like t see the primary system abolished…it is only a beauty contest and a way for the media to rape dollars out of the system.  But if we must have them then go to regional primaries or better yet a National Primary.

The idea that candidates build name recognition in Iowa and New Hampshire and then slowly build momentum as the process moves on is a quaint one but largely mythological. Since Jimmy Carter in 1976, has any candidate emerged as a major party nominee who wasn’t an early front-runner and well-heeled? Certainly, the nominees in the past several cycles have all been early front runners.

A national primary in, say, March, with a run-off in, say, June, would be much preferable to the way we do it now. If a candidate got 50% of the vote, he’d be the nominee. If not, the top two candidates would run against one another for another six to eight weeks.

That would force everyone to engage in retail politics on the issues rather than hanging around Merrimack Restaurant with the locals. And it would virtually guarantee substantive campaigning would continue into the early summer since only shoo-ins such as sitting presidents would likely capture a majority in a multi-candidate race.

YouGov’s latest research shows that most Americans (54%) think that presidential campaigns are too long and drawn out. Only 23% of Americans say that they prefer a long campaign which gives them a better chance of getting to know the candidates.

Currently the primary and caucus season stretches out over months, with the first Iowa caucuses scheduled to take place in January 2016. This has been criticized for giving small states such as Iowa and New Hampshire undue influence as well as prolonging the already lengthy presidential election campaign. Most Americans (54%) want the primaries to all take place on the same day in May or early June. Only 22% of Americans want the current system to continue.

A single national primary day is particularly popular in the Northeast, where 64% of people want to consolidate all the days. The midwest has the highest proportion of people (25%) wanting to continue with the current system where primaries and caucuses are spread out over several months…….https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2015/03/05/primaries

I made my thoughts known….anyone else feel like they have a better thought or opinion…if so please jump in here…..

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Before The Debates

This week (Tomorrow to be exact) will be the Dem debates over two nights…..before they stand up infront of the caring public and answer questions from MSM pundits…let’s look at some things that probably will not be part of the debate process……….

Let’s start with Biden, the front runner for now…..thjis is the Centrist dream candidate…a corporate puppet gthat will do little to change their lot in society……

Don’t worry, billionaires: your standard of living won’t change under a Joe Biden administration. 

That’s the message the Democratic frontrunner delivered to donors Tuesday as he continued a fundraising trip in New York that saw him on Monday tell a room of wealthy Wall Streeters “you guys are great” and ask a Trump-loving supermarket magnate for support. 

In Biden’s comments Tuesday, the former vice president told a room of 100 of the New York financial elite, including bankers Robert Rubin and Roger Altman, both of whom worked in the Treasury Department under Democratic administrations, that he wasn’t their enemy. According to Bloomberg reporter Jennifer Epstein, Biden took pains to separate himself from the rest of the field in his comments.

 
The other darling of the Centrists…..Mayor Pete. 

As best as I could determine, Mayor Pete was stalking a constituency of the middle ground, by uttering thoughtful clichés about the Rust Belt, the deficit, sexual equality, cops on the beat in South Bend, and the wars on terror—in which he was a deployed as an onward Christian soldier.

His dream is to survive long enough in the primaries so that as a last man standing he could offer himself as an alternative either to the Democratic Shining Path (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders) or Joe Biden’s Walmart he’s-hopeless-but-he-can-win Amtrak centrism.

 
I agree that Mayor Pete is a lightweight, a Centrist, and just another candidate of doing business as normal…..
 
Biden and the Mayor are just a few of the candidates that Wall Street will be promoting……the others are Booker, Harris …this should tell the voter who will run the country if elected…..

Having already determined that two of the top contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination—Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders—are completely unacceptable and must be stopped at all costs, Wall Street financiers have reportedly begun to narrow down their list of 2020 favorites as candidates’ fundraising efforts reach a “fevered peak” ahead of the June filing deadline.

As the New York Times reported on Sunday, “three candidates are generating most of the buzz” among powerful Wall Street donors: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.).

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/17/everything-you-need-know-warren-and-sanders-not-option-wall-street-abuzz-over-biden

The only thing that got me to take a second look at Mayor Pete as a possibility…was what he had to say at the NYT Forum….

the New York Times published a Democratic presidential forum of video interviews, including the hot potato: “Do you think Israel meets international standards of human rights?” And even the Times seems a bit surprised by the result:

“we thought this question would gauge Democrats’ willingness to criticize Israel, and found few candidates who would do so.”

Yes, what is most striking about the candidates’ short responses is the extreme reluctance to say a word critical of Israel’s human rights abuses. The exceptions were Bernie Sanders (though not as critical as he was to the AJC); Rep. Seth Moulton, who kinda stands up for Betty McCollum’s bill that would strip funds from Israel over its detention and interrogation of children; Tulsi Gabbard; and– the surprise– South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who all but answers the question, No. Israel’s record is “problematic and moving in the wrong direction.”

https://mondoweiss.net/2019/06/buttigieg-klobuchar-excuses/

We probably will not see much of this forum for the Media wants Pete in this race and his criticism of Israel will rule him out.

My pick of the Dems as candidate is Tulsi Gabbard for she is the antiwar, true antiwar, candidate….the only thing about Tulsi that worries me is her stand on the War on Terror…..

ut there is one major flaw in Gabbard’s rhetoric and policy, the way she views the War on Terror. Her most well-known quote on it saying, “when it comes to the war against terrorists, I’m a hawk,” which she follows up with, “When it comes to counterproductive wars of regime change, I’m a dove.”

One member of the audience at the town hall asked Gabbard about that quote and expressed his concern with it, wondering why she considers the war on terror and regime change wars so different. She answered, “When I say that I’m a hawk on this war on terror against groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, I believe that we have to be tough and defeat that threat in order to keep the American people safe. That’s a fact.”

The Flaw in Tulsi Gabbard’s Foreign Policy

Even with this questionable stance she is still my choice and I will be watching her and the others in the debates over the two nights.

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2020: Enough Already!

The 2020 election especially for the Dems is getting more confusing…..we now have 17 people running and are awaiting the decision from Joe Biden……

The field got bigger yesterday when 2 more came out of the shadows….

First, from the great state of Colorado……(he will be 18 or 19 if he makes it through the surgery….depends on Biden and his decision)……

Sen. Michael Bennet has been expected to join the ever-growing 2020 presidential field, but the Colorado Democrat got some bad news that’s delaying a final answer on that. He has prostate cancer. He’ll be getting surgery to remove his prostate gland, the same surgery John Kerry survived in 2003, coming back on the campaign trail cancer-free to win the Democratic nomination for president in 2004. His doctors tell him the risk is low, and in a statement on Twitter, he says that thanks to early detection, his prognosis is good. So, he tells the Colorado Independent, he still plans to run for president—as long as he’s cancer-free. The surgery is scheduled soon after Congress begins its spring recess April 11.

“The idea was to announce [a presidential run] sometime in April,” Bennet says. “That was the plan. We hired some staff. We interviewed people for positions in New Hampshire and Iowa. And then I went for the physical. In my last physical, my PSA was high. They did a biopsy, and it was clear. But this time, it was not clear.” After much thought, the 54-year-old found that he still wanted to run if he could. As for his reasons for running, he says no one else in the Democratic field is talking about dysfunction in Congress: “I am shocked every day” by how little Congress gets done, he says. He’s also passionate about health care reform: “The idea that the richest county in the world hasn’t figured out how to have universal health care is beyond embarrassing. It’s devastating.”

And then the 17th member of the 2020 Democratic field……

Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan jumped into the 2020 presidential race on Thursday, portraying himself as a candidate who can bridge Democrats’ progressive and working class wings to win the White House, the AP reports. Ryan, 45, announced his primary bid on ABC’s The View. He plans a kickoff rally on Saturday in downtown Youngstown, where a big turnout by organized labor is expected. Ryan is the 17th Democrat to officially enter the race, per ABC. The congressman resisted being labeled a political centrist by the talk show’s hosts, who pointed out that he’s a recreational hunter with past backing from the National Rifle Association. In 2015, he reversed his past opposition to abortion in favor of abortion rights.

“I’m a progressive who knows how to talk to working class people, and I know how to get elected in working class districts, because, at the end of the day, the progressive agenda is what’s best for working families,” Ryan said. During an unsuccessful bid to replace Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader in 2016, Ryan criticized the party for supporting leadership that represents the US coasts at the expense of the middle of the country. Ryan represents the district formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. Jim Traficant, for whom he worked. The blue collar area swung strongly for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Bringing those voters back into the fold will be critical in 2020, said Mahoning County Democratic Chairman David Betras. Per Larry Sabato, the previous record for number of Democratic presidential candidates was 13 in 1976; the record for Republican presidential candidates is the 17 who ran in 2016.

For me Ryan is a bit too centrist….the feel good candidate that promises he can work with everyone……of the two I prefer Andrew Yang at least he gives specific economic policies not the talking points of the party.

We have enough candidates….please stop while we can……

Enough Already!

DCCC Acting Like The Authoritarian Pricks

The Congressional Dems are trying to stop anyone from primary challenge to their members……in other words they are protecting the old fart cowards from being held accountable…..

Progressives made clear they have no intention of backing down to the party establishment after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Friday threatened to cut off funds to firms and strategists that support primary challengers against incumbents.

“The DCCC can do anything it wants to try to prevent the next generation of Democrats from taking power. They will not succeed,” Sean McElwee—co-founder of Data for Progress, which is recruiting progressives to oust conservative Democrats—said in a statement.

The new policy was included in the DCCC’s list of vendor hiring standards, which state that the organization “will not conduct business with, nor recommend to any of its targeted campaigns, any consultant that works with an opponent of a sitting member of the House Democratic Caucus.”

According to National Journal, which first reported the policy change, “Democrats involved in crafting the standards intend for them to bolster members across the ideological spectrum, from the fiscally conservative Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas to the progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota—both of whom could be subject to contested primaries.”

 
In other words the DCCC will decide who can run in the primaries….they want to take the people out of this decision and put forth the corporate owned toadies that we have had for the last 50 years.
 
I have a problem with any attempt, no matter what side of the aisle, that tries to eliminate the voter from making their choice of candidates…..this is a disastrous  attempt that cannot end well for the party….but they care not as long as the old farts are protected from a primary challenge.
 
Sounds like something of a “vanguard party” (anybody know what I mean?) leadership

The Coming Democratic Candidates

The long awaited 2020 election is speeding to a conclusion…..each month the events seem to speed up….after 700+ days of Trump all eyes look to the next election.

So far we have 4 announced Democratic candidates for the presidency….and more in the wings waiting for the best time to announce….we are doing good we have 4 women, one Hispanic and counting (as they say…whoever “they” are)……

The fun thing is that the Dems in 2020 will look like the GOP field in 2016…crowded…and some good ideas will be lost in the rush to the front runner position.

But so far the field has many prospects and all have a track record to run on not like the GOP of old.

For fun the site fivethirtyeight.com has a list of the Dems and how they will be broken down…..I know it is early but it will be fun to see just how accurate the site is this time around.

So for the 2020 Democratic nomination, we’ve resolved to entertain multiple hypotheses about the contest simultaneously. Perhaps the party will decide, and so we should be looking at how much support each candidate has from party elites. Perhaps the candidate most dissimilar to Trump will win, and so we should be evaluating the candidates based on that criteria. Perhaps the primary is just so hard to forecast that you might as well look at the polling, crude as it might be. (It has more predictive power than you might think.)

We’ll see. But we nonetheless think that (despite its mixed success in 2016) the coalition-building model is also a useful tool, especially if we make a few tweaks to how we applied it four years ago.

Just as with the Republicans in 2016, the concept this time around involves considering five key groups of Democratic voters. Here are those groups:

  1. Party Loyalists
  2. The Left
  3. Millennials and Friends
  4. Black voters
  5. Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/

The field keeps expanding and the diversity of the Party will be brought forward…….but is it really a diversified group?

The country wants “new” candidates….we are tired of the same promises and the same lies and the same inaction….we want “new blood” for DC….

A new USA Today national poll shockingly showed that Democratic voters and Democratic leaning independents overwhelmingly prefer “someone entirely new” to any of the current field of potential presidential candidates. This cannot be for lack of choices; there are potentially four times the number of candidates lining up at the starting gate as the most recent Democratic presidential primary.

Yes, this is one poll, but maybe we should refuse to dismiss voter feedback too easily.

Lots of woman announced and some waiting…..but what will this uptick in gender equality could mean to politics…..

Advocates for gender equality are reckoning with what one called a “wonderful challenge”—four or more women running for president in 2020, the AP reports. To many activists, that means a field more reflective of a party that counts women as a crucial voting bloc. But the prospect of multiple women in the race also presents obstacles, with no single candidate holding a claim to women’s votes to the degree Hillary Clinton did in 2016. The women’s vote, and groups that provide financial and grassroots support, could split. Looming over it all is persistent gender bias and the question of whether Americans are ready to elect a female president. “We do realize there’s still sexism in this country, and what we’re trying to do is change minds,” says EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock, whose group aids the campaigns of Democratic women supporting abortion rights.

In the early days of the Democratic primary, leaders of many advocacy organizations are thrilled that so many women are seeking the presidency, but are not backing any particular candidate. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren last month became the first woman to launch a presidential exploratory effort, joined shortly afterward by New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota also are considering running. Among those candidates, Gillibrand is particularly vocal in invoking her gender as a driver of her campaign, while Warren’s campaign has emphasized economic inequity. So is gender still a problem for candidates? “Because there are so many women running, it doesn’t totally inoculate women from sexism, but it does provide some guardrails,” says a gender-equality activist.

Questions Asked….Waiting For Answers!

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