Day: November 18, 2022

But What Are His Chances?

GOP holds a razor thin majority in the House and not so lucky in the Senate…..and then the big announcement by his royal highness, Trump, that he will seek the GOP nomination for the 2024 election.

All is good, right?

But what are his chances of success?

“A former president hasn’t sought a nonconsecutive second term or faced criminal investigation in generations, and Trump is doing both,” writes Nathaniel Rakich at FiveThirtyEight. So what are The Donald’s chances of winning the Republican presidential primary? Pretty good, in Rakich’s view. Yes, it’s still very early but Trump currently leads in polling, registering “in the high 40s or low 50s, 20-30 points ahead of his closest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis” in most national surveys, Rakich writes. “Historically, from 1972 to 2016, candidates with high name recognition who polled in the 40s and 50s nationally won the nomination more than 75% of the time.”

Former Sen. Ted Kennedy is the only figure in that category to lose out. He “lost the 1980 Democratic primary despite polling at an average of 47% in the first half of 1979,” Rakich writes. Though Kennedy was up against sitting president Jimmy Carter, this “shows that Trump’s nomination isn’t inevitable.” The tide could easily turn against Trump. As Rakich notes, “DeSantis is polling higher than he did earlier in the year.” It’s also possible that an indictment of the former president “could affect Republican voters’ perceptions of Trump’s electability in a general election.” But for now, Republican voters are on his side. One poll shows 80% have a favorable view of Trump compared to 11% with an unfavorable view.

The midterms may have hurt Trump as his “endorsees did fail to win certain highly watched contests, like the primary for Georgia governor.” Overall, though, voters backed “82% of the nonincumbents he endorsed in contested Republican primaries for Senate, House and governor.” Sure, Trump occasionally “endorsed candidates who were already well on their way to winning,” but his endorsement did seem to benefit certain candidates, including JD Vance in the Ohio Senate race. All this suggests Republican voters are loyal to Trump “or at least his vision for the party,” Rakich writes. He adds a crowded Republican field “could divide the anti-Trump vote, making it easier for him to win.”

So his chances are good according to some….will this set a precedent for ex-presidents?

Donald Trump isn’t the first defeated ex-president to attempt another White House run, but he does join an exclusive club. Writing for Politico, Joshua Zeitz looks at previous comeback attempts, and though he finds no overarching pattern, he does find some perspective in the candidates’ motivations.

  • Four have tried, beginning with Martin van Buren, aka the “Little Magician,” a wily political operative who won in 1836 but was defeated in 1840 amid a recession. According to Zeitz, van Buren’s comeback was motivated by power, which he never regained. He lost the nomination to James Polk in 1844 and was resigned to running as a spoiler with the third-party Free Soil Party in 1848.
  • By contrast, Grover Cleveland ran again out of boredom, emerging from retirement to unseat an unpopular Benjamin Harrison in 1892. That election was decided by a few swing voters in a highly polarized electorate—one precedent Trump may take to heart.
  • Teddy Roosevelt served two terms from 1901–09 and declined a third, but he always regretted the decision. After being outmaneuvered by party bosses to lose the Republican nomination in 1912, Roosevelt created the Bull Moose Party, a third-party champion of progressive causes. Ultimately, he split the Republican vote and handed the presidency to Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
  • Last comes Herbert Hoover, a one-termer who was trounced by FDR in 1932. Hoover ran again in 1940—largely out of spite, according to Zeitz—but lost the Republican nomination to Wendell Willkie. What motivates Trump? According to an opinion by George T. Conway III in the Washington Post, Trump seeks vengeance and a shield from prosecution.

Whatcha think?

Is this a good thing or just another ploy by the former dude?

Thoughts?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

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New Leadership Is Coming

I would like to apologize for the delay in my replies for I have been dealing with WiFi problems….I finally had to replace my modem and that was a chore…..but all seems to be working properly…..so fingers crossed.

The big news of the day yesterday…..

In 2023 we will have a new House and new leadership….the big news is Pelosi will step down as the leader of the House Dems…..

Nancy Pelosi won’t be House speaker next year, but she’s not retiring from Congress, either. In a speech Thursday to the House, Pelosi told her fellow lawmakers that she would continue to represent her San Francisco constituents but would not seek re-election to a leadership position in the Democratic party, per NPR. Instead, the 82-year-old is expected to remain in what the New York Times describes as “sort of an emeritus role.” Meaning, she will act as a “backbencher” providing guidance to the next generation of party leaders, per Puck.

The AP reported that Pelosi went home with two versions of her speech for review Wednesday night, with one option being full retirement. Pelosi was first elected to the House in 1987 and became the first female House speaker in 2007. She was in the role until 2011, and returned to it in 2019 when the Democrats took back the House. She vowed in 2018 that she would only serve four more years in the role, reports the Washington Post, and CNN adds that she said earlier in November that the October attack on her husband would factor in to her decision-making. Whether Pelosi just set off a domino effect in House Democratic leadership ahead of internal party elections next month remains to be seen.

Her leadership team, with Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Democratic Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina, has long moved as a triumvirate. Hoyer and Clyburn are also making decisions about their futures; like Pelosi, they are in their 80s. The AP notes that a second younger trio exists in the House: that of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts, and Rep. Pete Aguilar of California. NBC News reports Jeffries, who chairs the House Democratic Caucus, “is being urged to pursue the leadership role and has met with rank-and-file members” and agrees the three “have been widely seen to be part of a trio who could embody a new era of leadership.”

Personally I say ‘about damn time’….Dems have not passed anything but corporate favored bills in a very long time.

Is this a bright future for the Dems?

Personal thought….not likely.

Now the question is ….who will step up to lead the House Dems?

Other top Democrats announced Thursday that they’ll follow Speaker Nancy Pelosi out of top House leadership while remaining members of Congress. Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina said immediately after Pelosi’s announcement that they too will step aside, the Hill reports. Their decisions clear the way for New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who now chairs the House Democratic Caucus, to run for minority leader for the next Congress, which will be the top party job once Republicans take control of the House. Hoyer has been in Congress for more than 40 years and has held the No. 2 House position in his party since 2003.

“Now is the time for a new generation of leaders,” Hoyer, 83, said in endorsing Jeffries, whom he called “a skilled and capable leader,” per the Washington Post. Hoyer said he’ll return to the Appropriations Committee, where he served early in his career, to concentrate on education, health care, and increasing US manufacturing. Though he won’t stay on in a top post, Clyburn said he’d remain as assistant minority leader, the fourth-highest position. Like Hoyer, he backed Jeffries, 52, while adding endorsements of the two members planning to seek the two spots immediately below speaker: Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark and California Rep. Pete Aguilar. House Democrats plan to vote on the positions on Nov. 30, per the Wall Street Journal.

Dems need to be forward looking…..so far the best they can do is spin their wheels….it will be interesting to see who the Dems pick to lead them into 2 years of total chaos….

My guess is that nothing will change…..possibly the rhetoric but not the action.

Any thoughts?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”