Tag: World Politics

Is Pinochet Still Dead?

Once and awhile I turn my attentions to thew international scene…there are times when the world needs to be reminded of some disgusting situations from the past…back in the dark days of the 70’s there was a prick of a dictator, one Pinochet that lead a coup that overthrew the first popularly elected socialist president of Chile…..for those that do not remember the days…it sucked to be a Chilean leftist…it meant prison, torture and finally death…some 28,000 to be somewhat close…..Pinochet was eventually forced from office and became an instant international human rights fugitive….he eventually died….(I am sure that thousands of Chileans celebrated)…..

I know…this is old news, right?….hang in there …there is a method to my madness….

There has been a presidential election in Chile with some interesting back stories…..

Pinera, 60, won the contest against one-time President Eduardo Frei, a Christian Democrat, unseating the center-left coalition that had governed Chile since dictator Augusto Pinochet was forced from power in 1990.

The victory marks a political shift in Chile, a nation of 17 million people that straddles 4,100 kilometers (2,547 miles) of the Andes Mountains from its northern border with Peru to the Cape Horn.

In the 2010 election, Chileans chose a president with ties to the dictator who led the 1973 coup that left Socialist President Salvador Allende dead. Pinera managed a 1989 presidential campaign for Hernan Buchi, Pinochet’s former finance minister.

Pinera won with the support of two parties founded by former Pinochet collaborators — the National Renovation party and the Independent Democratic Union. Two of Pinera’s top campaign advisers held posts in the dictatorship and a third is a former Pinochet minister.

Pinera, a Harvard University-trained economist and former Citigroup Inc. executive, said during his campaign that he embraces Pinochet’s economic policies of cutting corporate taxes and encouraging investing in the country, and abhors the rule of terror.

Okay Chile has a new president, what is the big deal?……This guy says he was opposed to Pinchet’s Reign of terror, but yet he runs campaigns for some of his closest allies….apparently Pinochet’s policies help make this guy wealthy, so he says he likes the economic policies and that is about it….

The center left parties have been popular since the Pinochet days and the current president has a 80% approval rating but she cannot run consecutively, so this guy is a rightist and leftist policies are popular so how will this new president play out for the next 4 years?  Will he go to any lengths to secure his policies? Even to the extreme?

New Year Predictions For 2010

A new year…….a new decade…….back to work…..

For the last couple of years I have posted on what I think will be the situations in the world for the coming year……I am right some times and wrong others but I enjoy trying to see into the future……

2009’s predictions and results

1–Afghanistan will get many more troops–this one was a good call–+

2–Economy will shoe strength in 4th quarter–good call–+

3–Pakistan will be plunged into deep turmoil–close but no cigar–

4–Obama admin will have limited success–good call–+

5–Unemployment will hit above 8.5%–this was a gimme+

6–GM & Chrysler will merge–close but no cigar–

7–Deep divide between blue & white collars–IMO it has–+

8–GOP does not have a clue on being a national party–good call–+

9–Iraq returns to violence–close and cigar is lit–

10-Labor movement will get a shot in the arm because of government actions–way off–

Those were my predictions for 2009…I was correct on 6 and very close on 3 and wrong on 1…not a bad score at all…….eat your heart out Cayce……..

Now my predictions for 2010:

1–Pakistan will have a crisis and a new government

2–Afghan surge will go well at first

3–Unemployment does not get below 8.5%

4–Immigration and Energy will be the next big congressional confrontations

5–Top Obama cabinet member will resign

6–Economy will have another scandal

7–Inflation will rise by 3rd quarter

8–Israel/Palestine will flair up again

9–Iran will be the focus of most of the US foreign policy

10-a real third party shows ballot strength

11-Yemen will become much more volatile

All in all I will never be Nostradamus but at least you can read mine without a Captain Video decoder ring….

Afghanistan: Law Of Diminishing Returns

I admit it…I am an economic and political geek…and I am always looking for ways to link the two together…. I may have found my connection……

In economics, the Law of Diminishing Returns relates to….. The more you have, the smaller is the extra benefit you get from having even more.  Or after a certain point each additional unit will yield less and less of a positive result.

I know…I know…just what in Hell does that have to do with Afghanistan?

I will attempt to explain……the Prez is struggling with the request for more troops, about 40,000, to be deployed to Afghanistan or face the possibility of a failure in the country.  As I have said before, this was the argument made by Westmoreland to Johnson in the mid 60’s concerning Vietnam.  And how did that work out for the US?

If the troops are sent to Afghanistan, how long will it be before more troops are needed?  And on and on…….if we apply the Law of Diminishing Returns there will come a point that no matter how many troops are in the country the outcome will begin to diminish, meaning that the result will be a bust and a possible failure anyway.  The addition of troops will do little to change that, just postpone it for awhile.

Now the argument will be that a “surge” in troops in Iraq worked wonders and the same will be true in Afghanistan.  First of all, two completely different situations….because bad guys are shooting at the troops does not make it the same situation with the same solution.  Second, Iraq we had 2 distinct factions to deal with and in Afghanistan there are somewhere in the neighborhood of twent factions.  Third, the more Americans in the country the more chances of civilian deaths and with each one any support we have will lessen.  It is hard to win hearts and minds when killing women and children.

The generals will most likely get their troops, but I suggest that the Prez spend a little time thinking about the Law of Diminishing Returns….it will apply!

Understanding Iran–Conclusion

From the Professor’s Classroom.

It is the summer of their discontent…..I read that somewhere…..it explains what is happening in Iran.  And what is happening is that history is repeating itself….all over again…as Yogi would say.

Let us step back into my trusty “way Back” machine and travel to the 1960’s.  The Shah has been installed as “supreme” ruler of Iran by the oil companies and the CIA and he begins his “White Revolution”.  A massive program of economic and cultural reforms.  And at the same time opposition to the Shah and his US handlers was growing.  Enter the SAVAK–the Shah’s secret police that was used to quell any and all opposition throught arrestys, torture and murder.  They helped the Shah retain his power over real and pertend political opposition.

Then in the late 70’s the protests grew and grew from all corners of the country.  And all looked to a little known cleric exiled in France, the ayatollah Khomeini.  There was marching in the streets, beatings, arrests and deaths associated with these protests until the Shah lost it all and the Islamic Republic was formed.

The US and its citizens lost sight of basic human rights in there fear of “creeping” communism and at lead to a blind eye to what was actually going on in Iran.  So in the attempt to protect the flow of oil from Iran, they allowed those to come to power that would cease the flow of oil to the west.  Kinda like shooting oneself in the foot.

Now we return to the present and the election results and the ensuing protests.  It all sounds so darn familiar, right?  The politics of Iran is coming in full circle back to the beginning.  The results of the recent election has brought about beatings, arrests and death; weapons used by the SAVAK are now the weapons of the Council.

Wish I could go forward in time and see what the result will be, but I cannot….it will all depend on the actions of the clerics on the Council and the strength of the opposition.  There is a rumor circulating that Washington is pumping money into the opposition to the tune of $400 million, but that is just a rumor….but one cannot discount it….it is not like we have never done that before.

The protesters seem to have the will and the guts to continue their actions….the leaders are behind them 100%….maybe the leaders should step forward and prove they are willing to face the same dangers and results as the protesters…then maybe all this will be for the good of the country…well the good of the west,  at least.

Afterword:  Slowly but slowly the ruling mullahs and their lackeys are quelling the protests….the protests are becoming smaller and smaller as the “enforcers” use violence to get a handle on the demostrations.

Understanding Iran–Part 3

From the Professor’s Classroom:

The recent election and the results have brought a familiar name to the forefront of the opposition, Rafsanjani, an old “friend” from the past.  The media analysts are saying that he has the key to the modernization of Iran and the possibility of a slackening of the hostiles between Iran and the US.  The media calls him a moderate and as such he is in direct opposition to the ruling mullahs.

That analysis is not quite accurate.

Once again it is to the “way back” machine.

It is 1989 and the ayatollah has died, one Khomeini and with that the speaker of the Iranian parliment becomes the presdident of Iran, Rafsanjani.  He is a shia cleric and a founding father of the Islamic Republic Party.  Late that same year aftyer the US releases some of Iran’s frozen funds, Rafsanjani attempts to massage the west but is quickly slapped down by the Supreme Council.

Then in 1991 with a slump in oil prices and the debt from the war with Iraq, Rafsanjani tries to slide economic reform through the parliment and was not too successful.  Then in 1993 Rafasanjani runs for his second term as president and squeeks out a win, not the resounding 95% total he had first got, his popularity was waning.

During his second term, his presidency was marked with western sanctions,  most of them financial and economic in an attempt to bring down the regime of the clerics.  When Rafsanjani bowed out in 1997, he could not run for a third term, there was NO popular front runner to take his place,  It seems that the Supreme Council had learned their lesson with Rafsanjani.

It is to be known that the candidates for the presidency are put up by the clerics on the Council of Guardians, therefore they are basically all fundamentalists.  That can explain the present president and his support within the Council.

Rafsanjani’s name keeps reappearing occassionally when analyst talk about any reform in Iran.  But he does not have the support he once had, but he seems to stay in the running, at least in the minds of westerners.  Just remember, whoever becomes president can do nothing without the approval of the Council of Guardians and they hate the west and all it stands for.

In the recent protests over the election results Rafsanjani and his daughter are mentioned as leaders, as well as the losing candidate, Moussavi.  Are they truly the leaders or just names mentioned in passing?

Iranians……Do It For Neda!

To My Iranian Friends:

The young woman who last weekend emerged as a powerful symbol of opposition to the Iranian government embraced life in many ways, but there was little about her that would have led her friends to predict she would become a martyr.

Neda Agha-Soltan, 26, rose to prominence within hours after a crudely shot video documenting her final moments was uploaded to the Web shortly after she died Saturday from a single gunshot wound to the chest.

Much about her remains unclear, but here is what CNN has learned from at least one source.

The second of three children, Neda lived with her parents in a middle-class neighborhood east of Tehran.

She was a happy, positive person. Though she studied philosophy and religion at the Azad Islamic University, she was more spiritual than religious. She also loved music. She once studied violin but had given it up and was planning to take up piano next. She had just bought a piano, but it had not yet been delivered.

Her demeanor was typically calm, even serene, but she had a quirky, playful sense of humor.

Neda, wearing a baseball cap over a black scarf, a black shirt, blue jeans and tennis shoes, does not appear to be chanting and seems to be observing the demonstration.

Suddenly, Neda is on the ground — felled by a single gunshot wound to the chest. Several men kneel at her side and place pressure on her chest in an attempt to stop the bleeding. “She has been shot! Someone, come and take her!” shouts one man.

By now, Neda’s eyes have rolled to her right; her body is limp.

Blood streams from her mouth, then from her nose. For a second, her face is hidden from view as the phone camera goes behind one of the men. When Neda’s face comes back into view, it is covered with blood.

Since her death, public displays of mourning for Neda have been prohibited, the friend said.

A gathering of about 60 people at a mosque was broken up by members of the Basij, the pro-government vigilantes blamed for much of the violence against demonstrators, according to New York Times columnist Roger Cohen, who observed the incident.

Neda’s family has not been allowed to post a black banner of mourning outside the family’s house, the friend said.

This young woman was an innocent by-stander and should no way be dead.  I say if a symbol is needed then Neda is the perfect symbol of the protests now taking place.  She did not deserve to die, but she deserves to be avenged.  Her family needs closure and Iran needs a change.  And the world needs to know of the brutality taking place that in some ways is reminiscent of the days of the Shah.

I say to Iranians…we are with you and do not give up….get it done for yourselves. your country and especially for Neda.

DO IT FOR NEDA!

Understanding Iran–Part 2

From Professor’s Classroom:

Th analysis of the recent Iranian elects bring home the fact that there are two Irans.  One is the old farts of the 1979 Revolution and the fundamentalists and two, the young…students, intelllectuals, middle class and the tech savvy.

Two Irans?  Yes….we have the old farts from the days of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the young, the students, middle class, etc.  But what of the “middle age” Iranians?

Middle aged Iranians…..well there is a sticking point…why?….there are NOT many in Iran that are middle aged.  How can that be preofessor, you may ask?

That is a story unto itself……about the time that the ayatollah was coming to power in Iran in 1979…there was another despot coming to power…..one Saddam in Iraq.  In the year 1980 there were intrigues on both sides of the border between Iran and Iraq….Iraq fired one of the first shots of a coming war.  Saddam was afraid that the Shia in Iraq would rise up with Iran’s help and Saddam was after the oil fields in western Iran.  And thus began a bloody and costly war that lasted from 1980 to 1988.  The war could have been named “the battle of the despots”.

Now back to the middle aged Iranians.  The lack of a substantial group of Iranians know as “middle aged” is a direct result of a tactic employed during the war with Iraq, it was know as the Basji or the “human wave”.

The “human wave” was children in white burial garments that were tied together and sent into battle, unarmed, they would lead the Revolutionary Guard…they were used to clear mine fields and act as canon fodder against the Iraqis.  Thousands upon thousands of Iranian children died.

So yes, there are two Irans…the old and the young…….the old revolutionaries from the 1979 gig and the young who are the students, intellectuals, the middle class….the young, who want a more modern western existence.  These the ones that are fighting in the streets now…just as their old fart predecessors did some 30 years ago.  A full circle.

Understanding Iran–Part 1

From Professor’s Classroom:

Most Americans think that the history of Iran and the US began in 1979….a popular misconception.

To help educate my reader on the country of Iran we need to step into the “way back” machine and travel to the year of 1951.

In that year,  one Mohammad Mossadeq was elected prime minister of Iran…the key word in that sentence is “elected”.  This year is at the height of the Cold War where commies were everywhere.  Mossadeq was elected by the Iranian people to lead the country…he was a moderate and was to lead a popular form of Iranian nationalism.  This form of nationalism was festering a hatred for the US  Soon after his election Mossadeq lead the vote in the Iranian parliament to nationalize the oil industry.  And then the Anglo-Iranian Oil Comapny was shut down.  Not a good move and prompted the CIA to come up with a plan to replace Mossadeq.

In 1953, the Shah, who at this time was nothing more than a simple figure head removed Mossadeq from power with the help of his American “friends”.  Thus the Shah came to power simply because he was pro-western and an anti-nationalist and was the choice of the CIA as their man in Tehran.

Once the Shah became the favorite son he began to consolidate his power and influence until he became the despot that was overthrown in 1979.  The Shah retained power because of his willingness to take orders from the CIA and oil interests and his willingness to shed Iranian blood to keep opposition down.  The US reaped a bunch of a willing ally in the region to help fight the advance of communism.

In the 1960’s, the Shah was depending exclusively on the US to keep him in power.

In 1979, after 26 years of oppression from the Shah, the Iranian people had had enough.  They started having those darn pesky nationalistic thoughts once again and the US was the best  known enemy of the people.  Why?  The US was allowing their man in Tehran to rule with an iron hand and every time there was bloodshed it was the fault of the US, at least that is rhetoric of the time.

Enter a little known mullah exiled in France.  And the rest is history, as they say….whoever “they” are.

Understanding Iran–Intro

This is from Professor’s classroom.

Iran has election….present pres. wins…protests follow….crack down follows that……bloodshed and accusations fly…..

The AP is reporting that after the mullahs warning…the protests continued.

Iran braced for the possibility of more bloody confrontations between protesters and security forces on the streets of Tehran as fresh images of brutality emerged Sunday despite the regime’s attempts to impose a news blackout.Witnesses claimed that numerous demonstrators were injured — and several allegedly killed — in clashes with black-clad police wielding guns, truncheons, tear gas and water cannons on Saturday as protests over disputed elections escalated into Iran’s most serious internal unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Authorities did not confirm any deaths, and the reports from bloggers and Twitter users inside Iran could not immediately be verified.

All eyes are on Iran and how the election protesters are handled.

Iran is one of those countries that is mystery to most people…the only info they have is what they read or hear in the media.

Iran?  Yep….the country seems to always be in the news and on the lips of American politicians….some analysts say we need to inject the US into the protests and others say we need to stay out of it…..do not give the Supreme Council any more reason to hate the US.  What should we do?

Iran has made it in the news again…this time it is not about whether the holocaust happened or what to do about nukes…..it is all about the recent election and the protests that followed.

Analysts are jumping for joy over the protests they say it is a show of weakness for the mullahs and a strength of the people.  Many are encouraged by the protests and say that it shows the strength of the moderates.  Personally, I think that it is a bit too optimistic.  Some see the popularity of Mousavi as a turning point in Iranian politics.

Unfortunately, not many people understand Iran and what is happening.  For this reason too much misinformation is out there and people are playing to that erroneous information.

In the next parts of this post I will explain, as best I can, why I feel that this is not as good of news as most seem to think it is.

Obama’s Middle East Speech

I realize that most Americans care less about the Middle East right now….there are more important issues facing them….like their family’s survival, but Obama has made a speech to the Arab world and there will be a reaction.

Robert Fisk wrote in the Independent:

More and more, it looks like the same old melody that Bush’s lads used to sing. We’re not against the Muslim world. In fact, we are positively for it. We want you to have democracy, up to a point. We love Arab “moderates” and we want to reach out to you and be your friends. Sorry about Iraq. And sorry – again, up to a point – about Afghanistan and we do hope that you understand why we’ve got to have a little “surge” in Helmand among all those Muslim villages with their paper-thin walls. And yes, we’ve made mistakes.

He can, and will, surely, try his global-Arab line; that every Arab nation will be involved in the new Middle East peace, a resurrection of the remarkably sane Saudi offer of full Arab recognition of Israel in return for an Israeli return to the 1967 borders in accordance with the UN Security Council Resolution 242. Obama will be clearing this with King Abdullah on Wednesday, no doubt. And everyone will nod sagely and the newspapers of the Arab dictatorships will solemnly tip their hats to the guy and the New York Times will clap vigorously.

And the Israeli government will treat it all with the same amused contempt as Netanyahu treated Obama’s demand to stop building Jewish colonies on Arab land and, back home in Washington, Congress will fulminate and maybe Obama will realise, just like the Arab potentates have realised, that beautiful rhetoric and paradise-promises never, ever, win against reality.

I listened to the speech and came away with this…..It was a historic speech that only Obama could have made…it was a powerful speech that covered much of the US policies and situations in the ME….and it was a dramatic speech where Obama called on all Muslims to basically work together with the rest of the world to defeat extremism.

I will agree abit with Fisk that the speech will not immediately cause Muslims to run out and hug the rest of the world, but it will give a younger generation the hope and the idea that all things are possible.

An excellent speech….in my opinion…..