Closing In On The Election

Just mere weeks from all of us heading to the polls if we can still vote that is……some news sources are telling me that Biden has a huge lead….something I do not necessarily believe….they also said that Clinton had that lead in 2016….and look what we got for having that lead.

Then there are those Trump sucking sites that would have us believe that the race is closer than most of MSM would have us believe.

Then Gallup has a poll that thinks most Americans think Trump will win re-election…..

The good news for President Trump: His job approval has hit its highest point since May, Gallup reported on Thursday.

The bad news: His approval rating is 46%, while his disapproval rating is 52%. 

But the latest Gallup poll included one fascinating finding.

“Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win,” wrote Megan Brenan in an article released by the polling firm. “Although majorities of partisans think their party’s candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.”

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/gallup-majority-americans-think-trump-will-win-election

I personally like the analytics that the site FiveThirtyEight.com gives us when they look at the election…..so for all those hard supporters of Biden need to keep their eyes on the Electoral College…..why?

Even if you’re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight, you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump.

However, you shouldn’t count Trump out just yet. Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election,1 according to our presidential forecast, even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote.

That’s, of course, due to the Electoral College, in which Trump has an edge this year.

Historically, which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it; at other times, the Republicans. But in 2020, the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump’s odds of winning reelection.

That’s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, as the table below shows.

Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances

Do not take for granted the BS spread by the MSM…..to be certain of a Trump defeat you must vote……

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Are You Better Off?

Remember when that is asked almost every election when a candidate is trying to make the voter think about their situation (like the voter ever thinks about any thing important)…..

Pollsters are still asking that question every election and sometimes the answers surprise me and maybe you as well.

Apparently Repubs think that we are better off since the election of Trump…….

“For most Republicans, America is a nation where the economy is still fairly good, where the effort to handle the coronavirus is going at least somewhat well and the president is doing a very good job on it,” CBS News notes.

75% of Republicans Believe the Country Is Better Off Than It Was Four Years Ago

Did I miss something?

Over 20 million people are unemployed……are all them Dems….apparently no Repubs are unemployed if they think that they are better off than four years ago.

But not to worry….even the Dems have turned their backs on the unemployed……

Three weeks after the US Congress went on vacation and allowed federal supplemental unemployment benefits to expire for 20 million workers, cutting their benefits by $600 a week, the House of Representatives stabbed the unemployed in the back a second time.

The Democratic Party-controlled House reconvened in the midst of its August recess, passed emergency legislation on the US Postal Service, and then adjourned without taking any action on the plight of those thrown out of work by the coronavirus crisis.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined to act on the appeal by nearly 100 members of her own caucus, who sent a letter asking that the reconvened House take up legislation to restore federal extended benefits for tens of millions of workers.

The refusal of Pelosi and other leading Democrats to take action on the unemployment crisis shows that the Democratic Party’s claim to uphold the interests of working people is a political fraud. The Democrats jump to attention when Wall Street demands a bailout, but they have no time for workers facing poverty, hunger, eviction and homelessness

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/24/unem-a24.html

I have always heard that Americans vote with their wallets….if they are well off then they will rewarded the candidate that is n the Big Chair…..but I am questioning just how accurate that BS is……if a country that is massively unemployed can think they are better off….delusion can accomplish a lot, huh?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

A Look Before Conventions!

I have given you a look at the Dem convention……

A look at the standings in the polls before the conventions get kicked off first the Democrats then the Repubs…….

How is Trump doing against Biden…..do tell…do tell…..

With the Democratic convention this week and the Republican convention next week, Election 2020 is about to enter crunch time. Three new polls show that Joe Biden still leads President Trump, though one of those polls in particular shows the race tightening substantially. Details:

  • Tighter: The network Trump loves to hate has good news for the president. A new CNN poll shows Biden and Kamala Harris up 50% to 46% over Trump and Mike Pence among registered voters, which is within the margin of error. That’s a big decline from Biden’s 14-point lead in June in the same poll. What’s more, Biden is up just 49% to 48% in 15 battleground states, and Biden’s 9-point lead among independents in June has vanished.
  • A bigger lead: While CNN has Biden up just 4 points, a new Washington PostABC News poll shows him ahead by double digits among registered voters, 53% to 41%. That’s down from a 15-point lead last month but up from 10 points in May. For context, the Post notes that only 2 points separated them in late March. ABC points out that the percentage of Biden supporters who are enthusiastic is up to 48% from 28% in March. But Trump still has Biden beat in that category, with his figure at 65%.
  • A ‘warning’ for Dems: A new Wall Street JournalNBC News poll has Biden up 50% to 41% among registered voters, the same as last month. More than half of Biden supporters, 58%, say their vote is more anti-Trump than pro-Biden, which could be a troubling sign on enthusiasm for Democrats. And the Journal notes that while Biden’s positive rating rose 5 points, it’s still a lackluster 39%. “This poll is a warning for Democrats and the Biden team that there is still a lot of work to be done,” says Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who worked on the survey.
  • Overall: The Real Clear Politics average has Biden up 7.5 points, down from 10 earlier in the summer.
  • Big picture: In an analysis at Politico, Steven Shepard assesses the numbers (including the CNN survey). “While Biden’s lead has shrunk modestly, Trump has not yet closed the gap enough to markedly improve his underdog odds of winning reelection,” he writes. “Any advantage he holds on the states that make up an Electoral College majority—which allowed him to win the presidency four years ago despite receiving 2.9 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton—is insufficient to overcome his current deficit.”

Keep in mind just how pathetically wrong the polls were in 2016…..take these findings with that grain salt…..

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

2020 Not Looking Good

For Trump that is……

Donald the Orange keeps talking and with his open mouth his poll numbers slide……and Biden peasants dance.

Democratic and liberal aligned groups have put out 17 House polls taken in April or later. Republican aligned groups have put out 0. That’s a very bad ratio for Republicans.
Interestingly, Republicans were the ones dominating the polling landscape in the first quarter of the year. From January through March, Republican and conservative groups released 10 polls compared with the Democrats’ 2.
 
The April turning point lines up well with when the coronavirus pandemic became the headline story of the year. It’s when President Donald Trump’s approval rating started an almost continuous decline that remains unabated.
 
More on the Trump GOP……
 
Remember when they moved the convention from North Carolina to Jacksonville?
 
And then the humiliation the campaign had in Tulsa with a promoted millions wanting tickets to less than 7,000 that showed up…it was embarrassing and Trump was livid.
 
There is reports that the Jacksonville event may be an embarrassment as well so Trump is considering cancelling the convention to avoid more humiliation…
 

To console himself, Trump still has moments of magical thinking. “He says the polls are all fake,” a Republican in touch with Trump told me. But the bad news keeps coming. This week, Jacksonville, Florida—where Trump moved the Republican National Convention so he could hold a 15,000-person rally next month—mandated that people wear masks indoors to slow the explosion of COVID-19 casesAccording to a Republican working on the convention, the campaign is now preparing to cancel the event so that Trump doesn’t suffer another Tulsa–like humiliation. “They probably won’t have it,” the source said. “It’s not going to be the soft landing Trump wanted.”

With the coronavirus raging through Florida, a one-third capacity turnout would have been a big number for Trump’s acceptance speech. Trump’s rallies have long been used as an ego-boosting tool, and now that his own incompetence has taken them away, Donald Trump has nowhere to get his cult leader fix.

Trump To Cancel Jacksonville Convention To Avoid Being Humiliated

But keep in mind that polls are worthless…they bare solely a snap shot for the day.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Wanna Be An Expert Poll Analyst?

It is that time in the political cycle when polls are a daily occurrence…..this is how the system makes people think about voting and the candidates…..

But how can all these polls be read and understood?

I can help you with that and at the same time I can be the FYI blog……this is the suggestions from fivethirtyeight.com…..

Check the pollster’s track record. Some pollsters have long-standing reputations for accuracy, and others are more error-prone. You can check which are which using the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings, which assign (most) pollsters a letter grade based on their historical accuracy and whether they follow best practices in their methodologies. In our view, the “gold standard” of polling methodology is using live phone interviewers, calling cell phones as well as landlines, and participating in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative or the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archive.2 These gold-standard polls tend to be the most accurate, although there are exceptions — some online pollsters, like YouGov, are quite reliable as well. If a pollster doesn’t show up in our pollster ratings, it’s probably new on the scene, which means you should treat it with more caution because it doesn’t have an established track record we can judge; at worst, it might even be fake. (If you’re not sure if a pollster is trustworthy and want us to do some investigating, feel free to email us at polls@fivethirtyeight.com.)

  • Avoid comparisons between pollsters. Anytime you see a new poll, check to see what the pollster said previously before declaring that the race has shifted. Some pollsters consistently overestimate one candidate or party relative to what other pollsters find, a phenomenon called “house effects.” Similarly, especially for non-horse-race polls, pollsters often word the same questions in different ways — for example, asking someone’s opinion about “Obamacare” can yield different results from asking about “the Affordable Care Act” — which makes direct comparisons difficult.
  • Note who’s being polled. For elections, polls of likely voters tend to be more accurate than polls of registered voters, which in turn tend to be more accurate than polls of adults. That said, many pollsters won’t start surveying likely voters until the fall, and registered-voter polls are perfectly good substitutes until then — just be aware that the results may be a few points too Democratic. And polls of adults have their place too — such as when you want to know how the entire nation feels about something, like the coronavirus.
  • Pay attention to the margin of error. Reputable polls will always include a margin of error or confidence interval — it’ll look something like “± 3 points.” This reflects that polls can’t be exact, but they do promise to be within a certain number of percentage points (in this example, 3 points) almost all of the time (the industry standard is 95 percent of the time). In practical terms, that means that if a poll puts President Trump’s approval rating at 42 percent with a 3-point margin of error, his approval rating could be anything from 39 percent to 45 percent. Note that, in head-to-head polls, the margin of error applies to each candidate’s vote share, so if the same poll gave Trump 46 percent and gave former Vice President Joe Biden 51 percent, Trump could actually be leading 49 percent to 48 percent. (Though he could also be trailing with 43 percent to Biden’s 54, or fall anywhere in between those extremes.)
  • Consider the source. Partisan groups, or even campaigns themselves, will sometimes release their own polls, but of course, they have an ulterior motive in doing so: Make their side look good. On average, these “internal polls” tend to be about 4 or 5 percentage points too favorable to their sponsor, so don’t take them at face value. Be extra skeptical of internal polls that don’t release full methodological details, like the name of the pollster or the dates of the poll. Similarly, partisan media outlets may exaggerate their side’s standing by extensively covering good polls for their candidate while ignoring bad ones. Even mainstream news outlets can mislead, albeit in a different way: They may be tempted to overhype polls they conduct themselves (e.g., calling it a “shock poll” even if it’s not that shocking) in order to get clicks.
  • If a poll has an odd result, there might be a reason for it. Check the poll’s wording — is it accurate and unbiased? For example, some campaigns will release polls showing their candidate doing better after respondents hear a positive statement about them. Check when the poll was conducted; the survey may reflect an outdated reality or have been taken after some major event (e.g., a major military victory) that temporarily swayed public opinion. Even something as basic as the order in which questions are asked can affect the results; for example, if a poll is mostly focused on immigration but then asks about the presidential matchup, respondents may subconsciously choose the candidate they feel is best on immigration, not necessarily whom they support overall.
  • That said, don’t try to outguess or “unskew” the polls. People who pick apart a poll by claiming it has, say, too many Democrats or too few black voters in its sample are generally wasting their time (and they usually have an agenda). Polls are almost always weighted to match their target population’s demographics, such as race and age. This doesn’t mean all pollsters assign weights in the same way, though, and there are practices like weighting by education on which the industry is split. Not weighting by education likely contributed to some of the most consequential polling errors of 2016, and many pollsters have now begun to factor education into their weighting, but others are still holding out. In an era when graduating from college has a significant bearing on white people’s political preferences, we recommend putting more stock in polls that weight by education than those that don’t. (On the other hand, weighting by partisanship, an idea that’s received some attention lately, is dicey3 and not something most pollsters do. That’s because party identification, unlike many demographic traits, is fluid, so setting it as a constant risks predetermining the poll’s outcome.)
  • Heed averages, not outliers. If a poll’s result differs from every other poll, treat it with caution. Although an outlier poll can sometimes represent the beginning of a new trend (especially after a major event like a debate), they’re usually just flukes. Instead, we recommend looking at an average of the polls, which will more accurately reflect the polling consensus.
  • In the aggregate, polls are pretty accurate but not perfect. Since 2000, polls of presidential general elections taken within 21 days of Election Day have a weighted average error4 of 4.0 points. (Polls of Senate, House and gubernatorial races have slightly higher historical error.) That means you can trust the polling average to get pretty close to the final result, but it will rarely nail the election exactly. When an election is close enough that a normal-sized polling error could change who wins, prepare yourself for either outcome.
  • Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Even if a poll is a perfectly accurate measure of what would happen if the election were held today, things can always change between now and Election Day. Early general-election polls have been pretty predictive in the last few presidential elections, but with huge uncertainty surrounding major issues like the coronavirus pandemic and economic crisis, we don’t know if that will hold true this year. In general, polls gradually become more accurate the closer you get to the election.

Follow these steps set up by fivethirtyeight.com and you too can be an expert and political analysis.

If you would like the article to check my post……https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-read-2020-polls-like-a-pro/

The most important one is the last one…..polls are a snapshot……not a prediction……but yet the media reads so much into the polls…..makes for good and continuous speculation.

Look at this week…Biden is winning by far in the national polls…..which is good news if you are Biden supporter….but is it all that good?

The respected stats site FiveThirtyEight.com is out with its first batch of polling averages for the presidential election, and it’s good news for Joe Biden—at least on the surface. Biden is up 50.5% to 41.3% nationally, and he also leads in nearly all the swing states. But Nate Silver points out that Biden’s lead in many of those swing states is not as great as it is in the national polls. In Minnesota, for example, Biden is up by 6.6 points, less than his 9.2-point margin nationally. The upshot: If the polls tighten, Trump could again lose the popular vote but win via the Electoral College.

“While a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November,” writes Silver. At Politico, Steven Shepard writes about another issue that may favor Trump: the unreliability of state polls. The Trump campaign maintains that polls this year, as in 2016, are underestimating the president’s support. And the campaign “has a point,” writes Shepard. One example: People with more education are more likely to fill out these surveys, and they’re also more likely to vote Democratic. But the polls again may be undercounting others, particularly lower-income white voters who favor Trump.

You are now capable of reading polls and getting the most information out of them without the use of your favorite news media…..try it you may just like it.

Plus do not trust all the polls….do your own research and pick a candidate from knowledge and information not some popularity contest.

Think 2016 and just how badly all the polls were in predicting the outcome.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Hell NO! I Won’t Go!

Recent events have me thinking about days of yore and how they equate with today.

The title is a  familiar chant if you are an old fart that remembers the Vietnam War.

Read On!

But what about these days when there is NO draft for the young to worry about?

Could that change?

Today, however, the chances for great state conflict are high. As the threat of interstate warfare increases, America’s small expeditionary force (which is wearing thin from decades of constant deployments) will be insufficient to meet the challenges that rival great powers, such as China or Russia, pose to the U.S. military. This is especially true, considering the focus of America’s enemies on depriving U.S. forces of their aforementioned technological advantages.

U.S. policymakers should start planning now for the inevitable need to reconstitute the draft and should start anticipating how best to prepare for the demands placed upon its future force—and the country overall—in the event of another world war. When God told Noah to build the ark, he did not wait until the rain began. Similarly, U.S. policymakers have a moral duty to better prepare the country for the coming storm right now. A lack of planning will ensure the worst possible scenario befalls the United States when a great power war begins.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/01/07/the_next_world_war_is_comingand_so_is_the_draft_114963.html

Just so happens that a poll has been done and the question asked was if they would try to avoid the draft if necessary?

… a lottery was held to begin drafting Americans into military service for The Vietnam War. This lottery marked the first time since World War II that the US drew numbers to determine who would serve in the military, and it came amid anti-war protests that showed how opposed young people were to selective service. There was no legal avenue to avoid the draft, but many young men tried to find excusable reasons.

Young men today would do the same if there was a draft, according to data from YouGov. 

Three in 10 (31%) male Millennials say that they would “try to avoid being conscripted into the armed forces.” Since all males between ages 18 and 25 must enroll in the US draft, this group is the most likely to be impacted by selective service. Women and older generations were more likely to select “Not Applicable – I have good reason to believe the armed forces would not try to conscript me (e.g. because I am too old, have a disability).”

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/50-years-after-vietnam-war-draft

Millennials would try and avoid serving if possible.

See the full YouGov survey results about conscription

Americans think it’s “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that America will send troops into a new war within the next 40 years. Other YouGov data from June 2019 found that a majority (59%) of Americans believe another “world war” is likely to take place in the next 40 years.

My thought is …REALLY?

Then maybe get off your ass and look up from that damn phone and become the voice to end these goddamn wars of intervention…..endless wars….

Hope I am around  to see how fast these little shits turn to antiwar movement to help save their butts…they will become what they laugh at these days….Boomers.

But if the House has its way they will do away with the Selective Service….once and for all…..

H.R. 5492 (text of bill) would:

  1. Repeal the Military Selective Service Act (thereby eliminating Presidential authority to order men to register with the Selective Service System for a possible military draft and eliminating criminal penalties for failure or refusal to register);

  2. Abolish the Selective Service System (thereby ending contingency planning by the SSS for the Health Care Personnel Delivery System or any other form of special-skills draft);

  3. Prohibit all other Federal agencies from imposing civil sanctions (denial of Federal student financial aid, Federally-funded jobs, etc.) for nonregistration or using nonregistration as a basis for other adverse determinations (denial of naturalization as a US citizen, etc.);

  4. “Preempt” (and thereby override and prohibit) all state sanctions for nonregistration (denial of drivers’ licenses, state financial aid, state jobs, etc.); and

  5. Preserve the rights of conscientious objectors under other laws and regulations (such as applicants for reassignment to noncombatant duties or discharge from the military on the basis of conscientious objection).

(antiwar.com)

Bill Introduced To End Draft Registration

But with Trump’s fanning the fires of war with Iran the Selective Service had so many panic visitors that it crashed the service…..

In the aftermath of the US drone strike that killed the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani in Baghdad, the phrase “World War III” began trending on social media.

More startlingly, a US government agency which registers young men for a potential military draft saw its website crash.

Related: Iranian Americans on edge as tensions surge: ‘The fear is palpable’

“Due to the spread of misinformation,” the Selective Service System (SSS) tweeted on Friday, “our website is experiencing high traffic volumes at this time … We appreciate your patience.”

It added that it was “conducting business as usual” and emphasised that a return to the draft is not imminent: “In the event that a national emergency necessitates a draft, Congress and the president would need to pass official legislation.”

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/us-government-agency-website-crashes-212942668.html

Once again…if you are that afraid then maybe becoming part of the solution would be in order…..well at least Idaho has tried to make a difference…..

Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and arguably the most influential foreign policy voice in Congress, Saturday returned home to Idaho, only to find himself under growing public pressure from veterans and even his own party to end America’s ground troops presence in the Middle East.

Initiated by a group of veterans of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars in the heavily Republican state, whose efforts have quickly spread to other states, the Idaho Republican Party’s state central committee Saturday approved two resolutions urging Risch to support President Trump’s efforts to withdraw U.S. troops from the Middle East, hold public hearings to spotlight recent revelations of “constant lies” by U.S. government officials and corruption by military contractors in Afghanistan, and return to a doctrine of deploying U.S. troops for long-term combat duty overseas only after Congress has approved a formal declaration of war as provided by the Constitution.

Idaho Republican Party Passes Antiwar Resolutions

Finally the antiwar protesters have come out of the shadows…….https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/nation/2020/01/04/anti-war-protestors-organize-after-us-killed-iranian-general/2813297001/

It is good to see that the American people have not lost their courage or their concern.

Could antiwar become more pronounce?

Today, as we spiral perilously toward direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, it is worth reflecting on the failures to rein in Trump’s aggression along the way. Given the obvious signs that Trump has been keen to escalate the United States’ many wars — and begin new ones — the complicity of other institutions in Trump’s belligerence, particularly Congress, is stunning.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/01/08/we-need-strong-anti-war-movement-yesterday

Time to return to those days of yore and protest….you may not like them but they have been effective in the past….why not try again?

Their signs were much as anticipated, likewise the chants, the word and curse “imperialism” hardly ever absent from either. But most everybody else with an interest in sign-carrying brought their own, hard-made or a few dozen of the same item offset, like the 8×5” sheet handed to me with the DSA messaging. Looking around, I saw a diorama of the Madison Left—the former leader of the state AFL, a city council member or two, youngsters that I’d never seen before and oldsters that I had seen many times. Only days since New Years, “Auld Lang Syne” went though my head as I took note of the absent-because-dead, generations of lefties and peaceniks since I first got to town in 1967. My favorite home-drawn sign, seen now many times over the years, was probably “Who Would Jesus Bomb?”—the tone of the legislature being dominated by hypocritical white evangelical Republicans. Even better is the one I did not see at this demonstration, “What Would Bob La Follette Do?” because hardly anyone even now fails to recognize the visage and message of our great antiwarrior, 1917 style, sometime governor and Senator to boot.

The Return of the Antiwar Movement: Memories and Intimations

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Closing Thought–03Dec19

We have all heard our dear president make the wild claim that he is more popular than Abe Lincoln….well there is some good news for all those Trump supporters that are always looking for something they can say about the this president.

A new poll shows that Repubes like Trump better than Lincoln…..and that should tell what a mental capacity the party is appealing to at this time.

President Trump’s polling dream has become a reality. A new Economist/YouGov weekly survey says 53% of Republicans consider Trump a better president than Abraham Lincoln, compared to 47% for Honest Abe, the Hill reports. But across parties and independents, Lincoln still wins by a firm 75% to 25%. Maybe the Economist wanted to test Trump’s 2018 boast to the Sun that he was “the most popular person in the history of the Republican Party. Beating Lincoln. I beat our Honest Abe.”

What he meant was unclear, but at the time he also tweeted that “over 90%” of Republicans gave him a thumbs up, making him “the most popular Republican in [the] history of the Party. Wow!” That was nearly an accurate reflection of a Gallup poll that gave him a 90% approval rating among Republicans—making him the GOP’s most popular modern president save for George W. Bush just after 9/11, the New York Times reported.

Sorry I do not see it!  No accounting for taste!

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Let’s Go To The Polls

Closing Thought–28Nov19

Polls that magical trick that pundits use to help the MSM drive the news cycle. Some polls are the heart beat of the nation and then others are fake news and some sort of “witch hunt”…..just depends what you WANT to believe….not what is accurate or truthful.

Now that I stepped off that soap box I recently saw a poll that as an antiwar and anti-interventionist I like the numbers…..

A new poll conducted by the Eurasia Group Foundation shows Americans are losing their belief in American exceptionalism, and tend to favor a more non-interventionist foreign policy. The participants were asked a range of foreign policy questions.

Over 1,200 people across the country were surveyed for the Eurasia Group poll. Here are some of its findings:

Most of the participants believe that America is an exceptional nation. 42.4 percent believe America is exceptional for what it represents, and 18.2 percent believe the nation is exceptional for what it has done in the world. 39.5 percent of the participants believe America is not exceptional, just another country acting on behalf of its own interests. That number is up 6.1 percent from the previous year.

Looking at the different age groups shows younger people do not think America is anything special. In the 18-29-year age bracket, just 45.1 percent find America to be exceptional. Those who are 60 and over find America to be the most exceptional, at 75.2 percent.

This poll from the Eurasia Group Foundation reflects a poll released by the Pew Research Center back in July. The Pew poll found most veterans they surveyed do not believe the wars they fought in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria were worth fighting. A shocking 64 percent found the war in Iraq was not worth it, 58 percent for the war in Afghanistan, and 55 percent for Syria.

The Costs of War project at Brown University released a study this November that found the so-called War on Terror has killed over 800,000 people, and cost the US $6.4 trillion. The death toll only takes into account those killed in direct violence, not including those killed by disease, malnutrition, or other indirect causes. It’s no mystery as to why Americans, even those who fought the wars, are starting to favor a more noninterventionist approach.

New Poll Shows Americans Favor Non-Intervention

How nice!

I do not believe any of it for a  moment.

The American people allow this sort of BS to continue….war that is….intervention that is…..regime change that is…..if they are so against this crap they need to grow a spine and speak up.

Cash trumps sentiment….

Thanx for spending some time on IST on this busy shopping day….your visits are appreciated.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Let’s Go To The Polls

I hate polls!

Our 24 hour news cycle and the approach of a general election and the airways are full of polling results.

All news channels and pundits live and die with polls these days. It is how they get the stuff to drive the conversation for the day.

At best polls are a momentary look into what the nation the people are thinking and feeling. That is if the respondents actually answer the polling questions honestly.

As I have said I have NEVER been a fan of polls and the results the news people need to drive the day’s cycle….even as a young man when my news came from newpaper and the 6 PM news shows I thought polls were a cop out…a way to report without ever knowing what the majority of the people really feeling.

The reason I do not trust polls is I am not convinced that the people answer the questions accurately…..and some are starting to agree with me…..

When asked to answer questions quickly and impulsively – be it at work or home – people may lie to you by responding with a socially desirable answer rather than an honest one, say researchers.

In other words, time pressure does not bring out a person’s good ‘true self’ and people may default to their desire to appear virtuous even if it means misrepresenting themselves.

“The method of ‘answer quickly and without thinking’, a long staple in psychological research, may be doing many things, but one thing it does is make people lie to you and tell you what they think you want to hear,” said John Protzko, a cognitive scientist at University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB).

The idea has always been that we have a divided mind — an intuitive, animalistic type and a more rational type.

“The more rational type is assumed to always be constraining the lower order mind. If you ask people to answer quickly and without thinking, it’s supposed to give you sort of a secret access to that lower order mind,” Protzko explained in a paper published in the journal Psychological Science.

https://gulfnews.com/lifestyle/under-time-pressure-to-answer-people-generally-lie-to-you-1.1570949816164

All that said…I still do not look at polls all that closely…but sadly some voters make their decisions based on what their favorite news outlet tells them is the best candidate.

NOT me!  That could be why I seldom ever voted for the poll leader.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Closing Thought–11Oct19

Impeachment is all the rage……and Trump’s news service, FOX News, has some bad news for the president….

President Trump has been known to dismiss unfavorable polls as “FAKE NEWS,” but the latest one comes from an outlet he has praised in the past. Fox says that according to its poll, a record 51% of voters want Trump to be impeached and removed from office. Another 4% want him to be impeached but not removed from office, and 40% oppose impeachment. Fox says support for impeachment has gone up among all groups since July, including Republicans. According to the poll, 39% of voters think doing what is best for the country is most important for Trump—and 55% think it is doing what is best for himself. On the issue behind the impeachment inquiry, 66% said it was inappropriate for the president to ask a foreign leader to investigate a political rival.

The Fox poll, conducted Sunday through Tuesday, found that just 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump—though that still puts him a point ahead of Nancy Pelosi, and 16 points ahead of Rep. Adam Schiff. Only 26% had a favorable opinion of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Other polls have delivered similar results, the AP reports. A Quinnipiac University poll in early October found 45% in favor of removing Trump from office, and a Washington Post poll the same week had 49% in favor. In late September, a CBS poll found 55% of voters, including 23% of Republicans, in favor of the decision to launch an impeachment inquiry, though not all of them wanted Trump removed from office

Not looking too good for Trump even on the FOX polls…..but it matters NOT.

It is a momentary look into the minds of the people…all that can change with a good glass of warm milk.

But Trump could not let the poll just die with the next poll…no he had to make a bigger deal than it probably was (as usual)….

A new Fox News poll delivered bad news for President Trump, showing that 51% of respondents supported his impeachment and removal from office. It caught the attention of Trump himself, who clearly wasn’t pleased. “Whoever their Pollster is, they suck,” the president tweeted, adding that Fox “is also much different than it used to be in the good old days.” Echoing a complaint he delivered in August, the president wrote that the network “doesn’t deliver for us anymore,” per the Hill.

Despite Trump’s criticism, Fox’s bipartisan polls “are among the most reputable in the industry,” according to Politico. Democrat Chris Anderson and Republican Daron Shaw have conducted the polls since 2010, and they’re managed at Fox by Dana Blanton, Chris Stirewalt, and Arnon Mishkin, all of whom were the subject of a recent profile in the Los Angeles Times. A Trump campaign spokesman complained that nearly half of the respondents were Democrats, but “that is consistent with their past surveys and mountains of other research that show that more Americans identify as Democrats than Republicans,” per Politico.

Will Trump ever learn that throwing gas on a fire seldom puts it out?

Doubtful!

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”