Tag: Polls

How About A Poll Free Diet?

Yesterday I wrote about a new poll that puts Trump about 9 points ahead of Biden….which means little as there is over a year of polls to look forward to….

As the 2024 election creeps its way into to our lives we are now and will soon be overwhelmed with the constant polling results…..Trump is leading Biden, vice versa, Dems are squeaking by, GOP is running rampant….are just a few of the results we will probably see from this polling group or that….and make no mistake there are hundreds of them and seldom do any of them reflect the same trends.

It has been suggested that we ignore polls for now….go on a poll free diet if you will…

Jennifer Rubin has tried to stay away from “rickety” poll analyses as we inch closer to the 2024 election—a “poll-free political diet” she thinks we all should go on. Writing for theWashington Post, Rubin lays out a laundry list of reasons why, calling the polling field “broken” and the journalism behind it lacking in keeping the electorate in the know with “accurate, reliable information.” Rubin notes that the polls were way off in both 2016 and 2020, as well as in the 2022 midterms, and that voters often offer “contradictory” information on how they’re feeling ahead of elections. The latter suggests that voters “either don’t understand the question, don’t really know what they think, or respond based on tribal loyalty,” Rubin writes.

She also notes how pointless it can be to hold polls way in advance of Election Day, as the political landscape is a fluid, constantly shifting one. Rubin cites a quote from Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg on this point: “At the end of the day polling is only a snapshot into a moment, and cannot predict anything. Things change all the time in politics—change is the constant.” Most important, however, is the role of journalists in this mix, with Rubin noting that the usual “horse-race coverage” isn’t going to do the nation much good. “When the stakes are so high, and the fate of democracy hangs in the balance, continuing to gamify politics with meaningless polls does little to improve journalists’ reputation or inform voters,” she writes. More from Rubin here.

A damn fine idea!

I do not use polls to help me decide who to vote for….I use my principles as a guide.

Polls these days are used to drive news not inform.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

2024 Not Looking Good For Biden

We are a little over a year away from our next general election and the two ‘frontrunners’, Trump and Biden, are going at it like rabid gerbils.

Now is the time to start paying attention for this vote is too important to be a spectator.

There’s no single issue President Biden’s team has to address to bolster his support among voters, new polling shows: There are a bunch. An ABC News/Washington Post poll found 44% of respondents saying their personal financial situation has worsened during Biden’s term, the highest share the poll has seen since 1986. His overall approval rating is at 37%, disapproval at 56%, per ABC News. Just 23% like Biden’s handling of the situation at the US-Mexico border. Since May, the share who say the president is too old to serve a second term has risen 6 points, to 74%.

findings of an NBC News poll are similar. It adds a warning sign for Democrats that part of their base is showing less interest in the next presidential election. “I know that 80-year-olds are perfectly capable,” said Mary Lyon, 53, an Arizona Democrat. “I worry more about Biden’s physical health. He seems a little bit feeble and this job does take a toll.” The ABC/Post poll also shows Biden trailing the Republican nominee he beat last time, 51%-42%, should they meet again. Those results show some voters liking Donald Trump more now than they did then; his approval rating was 38% when he left office, while 48% in the Post poll now say they approved of his job performance.

On the other hand, Kevin Chester, an Arizona Republican who voted for Trump twice before, is moving away from him, per NBC. He fears that Trump wouldn’t accomplish anything in a second term because he’d be busy litigating the past. “I would vote third party in protest if it was Trump versus Biden,” Chester said. The Post conceded that Trump’s 9-point or so lead in its poll is not supported by other polls and probably indicates the race, should it happen, is a dead heat.

Biden is failing and Trump is surging (if that can be called a surge)….Biden to walk the picket line with the UAW…..sounds like a photo op for how engaged he is….it will fail.

Keep in mind lots can happen between now and November….so these polls are nothing more than a snapshot.

What say you?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Is It Time To Worry Yet?

WE are only a few months away from the kick-off of the 2024 election season…..and it looks like the two front-runners are Trump and Biden…..and that is where this post picks up….

For most thinking voter the news that Trump will run again can send us into a ranting frenzy….of the is the case then this story should bring on a stroke.

A new poll gives President Biden and Democrats cause for concern just as his reelection campaign officially gets going. Biden’s job approval rating has fallen to 36% after standing at 42% in February, the Washington Post-ABC News poll found; his previous low was 37% early last year. The president’s disapproval rating now is 56%, with 47% expressing strong disapproval. Although the economy was in bad shape because of the pandemic when Biden took office, more respondents consider former President Donald Trump to be better at handling the economy, 54% to 36%, per the Post. Possibly most worrying to Democrats, Biden is about 4 points down in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.

It’s not all roses for Trump. The poll found majorities saying he should face criminal charges over the attack on the Capitol, efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, and his handling of classified documents after leaving office. Although Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hasn’t entered the race, Trump has about twice as much support at this point. Respondents don’t find Biden or Trump especially honest or trustworthy, but the president comes out ahead on those measures.

At least one Democratic pro was alarmed by the poll results, including Biden’s loss of support among particular groups, per the Hill. “It’s sobering in the sense that the coalition that elected Joe Biden, with the historic numbers that we saw in 2020, that coalition right now is fragmented,” party strategist Donna Brazile said on ABC’s This Week. She said she sent the poll findings to Democrats at her first opportunity—12:02am Sunday. “It kept me up and I thought they should wake up and look at those numbers,” Brazile said.

Oh.. great a replay of 2020 as boring as it was……progress in this country will suffer (as it always does)

I am not voting for either of these two old guys for neither represents anything that I support.

I will either vote third party or write-in if these are the two candidates for the presidency.

Any thoughts you would like to share?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

What About The Polls?

Let me state from the git-go….polls are notoriously wrong almost every election….so the news that was released this week should be taken with a grain of salt….

If past performance is any indication, polls ahead of this year’s midterm elections may be setting Democrats up for another major letdown. That’s according not only to pundits but also the pollsters themselves, who according to Politico have been wringing their hands and tweaking their methods ever since the 2016 election forced a reckoning in the industry. Postmortems back then alerted pollsters to a new breed of voter: Trump supporters, a considerable chunk of whom are hard to reach or simply refuse to participate in polls, therefore skewing results toward Democrats.

Despite significant adjustments aimed at reaching more non-college educated voters and those without landlines, most pollsters bombed again in 2020. Biden won, but the margins were far narrower than predicted, especially in many battleground states. Indeed, 2020 polls were the least accurate in four decades, and the industry doesn’t seem to know why. As the New York Times’Nate Cohn puts it, the polling community essentially “declared that it was ‘impossible’ to definitively ascertain what went wrong in the 2020 election.” Since then, pollsters have continued the handwringing, but they haven’t made major changes, hoping instead that Trump’s absence on the ballot will relieve the poll-skewing effect of his supporters.

Polls are looking relatively rosy for Democrats, contrary to traditional wisdom that shows a president’s party underperforms in midterms, especially in an uncertain economy. Some pundits say Democrats have legitimate momentum on their side, thanks to the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision and the fact that lots of Republican candidates have very low favorability ratings, per the Washington Post. Democrat candidates also outperformed polls in recent special elections in New York and Alaska. But as the Times also points out, the strong Dem polls are appearing in the exact same battleground states pollsters botched in 2020. For example, in Wisconsin, Democrat Mandela Barnes shows a seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson; in 2020, polls showed Biden at +8, but he won the state by less than a point.

My thoughts is it is a toss up…..granted the Dems have gained a bit because the president has gained…..but I have NO confidence in the Dems to pull it out and I have no confidence in polls…..

Thoughts?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Biden Bad News

The 2024 presidential election is not as far away as some may think. We still do not know for sure what Trump will do….and that is keeping some descent GOP candidates from actually considering a run….then there is the Dems. Will Biden run or will he step aside and let America look at someone else?

If his poll numbers are any indication then he is not smiling much these days.

His approval rating is in the toilet.

The New York Times is out with a new political poll that has remarkably low numbers for President Biden—among his fellow Democrats.

  • Don’t run: Maybe the most striking stat is that only 26% of Democratic voters want him to run again in 2024. For those under 30, that percentage drops to a bottom-scraping 6%. Biden has said he plans to seek re-election.
  • Sinking lower: His job-approval rating fell to 33% among all voters, with only 13% of them saying the nation is on the right track. His approval rating specifically among Democrats is 70%, which the story notes is “relatively low.”
  • Reaction: “Maybe the worst presidential poll I’ve ever seen,” writes Allahpundit at Hot Air. And yet, this piece lays out why, for various reasons, Biden will likely face Donald Trump again in a presidential election. “Nothing would better reflect the nagging sense of national decline and civic paralysis that colors all of our politics nowadays than two widely disliked guys who are well past their prime wheezing their way to easy renominations in 2024. God help us.”
  • Analysis: At the Washington Post, Philip Bump sees a big-picture factor at at play. “Biden’s age and job performance are both salient in this discussion, but the new poll also reflects something else: the simmering power struggle within the party between its left and moderate factions.” Generally speaking, those on the left are younger, but they are less concerned about Biden’s age than the older moderates. For them, it’s about policies, or the lack thereof.

Not looking too good for ‘Uncle Joe’….

Personally I hope he steps aside.

I have not been impressed by anything he has done in his admin so for…..he has entered a war, protected corporate massive profits, and screwed the American people at every turn.

Yes I know he is better than a Trump….but for me that is NO DAMN excuse….Dems are pathetic and there leader is the most pathetic.

Enough Said?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Biden On Ukraine

The Ukraine situation has illustrated that there is a wealth of mindless rhetoric and armchair generals most of which shows me that there is little understanding of how this whole conflict is working.

Just how will the American people feel on the handling of Biden over the invasion of Ukraine by Vlad the Invader?

I read that over 50% of the American people want Biden to do more on the Ukraine situation…..

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have far more serious repercussions around the world than on U.S. domestic politics. We at FiveThirtyEight are experts on the latter, though, so here’s a look at how the conflict might affect President Biden’s political standing. (With war breaking out only this week, it’s too early to say anything for sure, so consider this a scene-setter of sorts.)

First, Biden starts off this crisis with low marks from the American public on foreign policy. In five polls conducted this month,1 between 52 percent and 58 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Biden’s handling of foreign policy; only 35-44 percent said they approved.

How Will Americans Grade Biden’s Handling Of The Crisis In Ukraine?

I agree that Biden’s foreign policy sucks…..but what could he do better?  My thought is make diplomacy the primary aim of the State Dept. not war as a knee jerk reaction.

Interesting that a majority disapproves or has no opinion on Ukraine aid……

One-third of Americans say they approve of President Biden’s handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to a new poll released on Friday.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 33 percent of Americans say they approve of the president’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine situation, while 47 percent say they disapprove and 20 percent say they have no opinion.

Close to half of Americans polled — 48 percent — also said that they believed America’s leadership in the world had gotten weaker under Biden. Meanwhile, 23 percent said they believed it had gotten stronger and 26 percent said they believed it had stayed the same.

(thehill.com)

Americans want Biden to do more on Ukraine….what would that be?

Crippling sanctions in place, aid to Ukraine both lethal and humanitarian, rallied the world,….basically all that is left to do is commit troops.  Are these uninformed trolls really ready for that?

After twenty years of wasted lives and money and now some want it to happen again….what are they thinking?
 
These polls just illustrate just how uninformed the American people have become….they depend on ignorance to cloud their thinking.
 
I Read, I Write, You Know
 
“lego ergo scribo”

Is Biden Losing Support?

At one point Biden’s approval rating as president was at about 60%….but he seems to have hit a high mark and is steadily losing his support…..

Two new polls show President Biden’s approval rating declining as COVID surges and bad news related to Afghanistan abounds:

  • NBC News: The poll found Biden’s approval rating hit 49%, the first time it has dipped below 50%, and his disapproval rating hit 48%. In April, NBC’s polling had him at 53% approval. However, between April and August his approval rating among Democrats only slipped from 90% to 88%.
  • CBS News: The poll also found Biden’s approval rating has hit a low point, though it has approval and disapproval evenly matched at 50% each. In July, approval was 58% and disapproval 42%; in March, those numbers were 62% and 38%, respectively.

  • RealClearPolitics’ poll average currently has Biden’s approval rating at 48.2%, while FiveThirtyEight’s average has him sitting at 49.4%. Some specific findings from NBC and CBS:

Afghanistan: 44% of CBS respondents think the US withdrawal went “very badly,” and another 30% think it went “somewhat badly.” While 63% agree with the idea of removing US troops from the country, just 47% are on board with how Biden handled it. Nearly 60% say the US is not doing enough to help Afghans who want to leave Afghanistan, and 60% fear an increase in the terrorism threat to the US due to the Taliban takeover.

COVID: Among NBC respondents, 53% approve with Biden’s handling of the pandemic, 16 points lower than April’s numbers. Just 37% think the worst is over, while 42% believe it’s still to come.

Economy: Forty-seven percent of NBC respondents approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, and only 24% described the current state of the economy as good. While 44% said they were mostly hopeful about the future of the US, 54% described themselves as mostly pessimistic.

This week will be a tough week for Biden…..

Joe Biden faced the biggest crisis of his presidency so far after the collapse of Afghanistan’s government and military—and this week is unlikely to be any easier. Top administration officials will face tough questions about Afghanistan in congressional hearings, and a standoff has developed among House Democrats over major parts of his legislative agenda, the Hill reports. Democratic leaders are hoping for quick approval this week from House Democrats for a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint passed in a party-line vote in the Senate, but nine caucus members are threatening to oppose it unless the House first approves the $1 trillion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate with bipartisan support, reports the AP.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can’t afford to lose more than three votes—but meeting the demands of the centrist group may be impossible, since almost 100 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus say they will withhold their votes on the infrastructure bill until both the budget blueprint and the final $3.5 trillion package, which will include progressive priorities like fighting climate change and expanding Medicare, have cleared Congress, the Washington Post reports. Caucus member Rep. Ro Khanna describes the moderates’ opposition as a ” slap in the face of Joe Biden”

Pelosi warned House Democrats over the weekend that any “delay to passing the budget resolution threatens the timetable for delivering the historic progress and the transformative vision that Democrats share.” The White House said Biden supports Pelosi’s strategy. House Republicans, meanwhile, are accusing Pelosi of holding the bipartisan infrastructure bill “hostage,” though it’s not clear how many of them intend to vote for it, Politico reports. “The Democrats are tied up in a pretzel over this, with both wings of their party duking it out over how to move forward,” says GOP Rep. Jim Banks.

It will be telling to see how the spin doctors try to change the conversation to avoid a total meltdown.

Watch This Blog!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing Thought–10Aug21

Pres. Joe Biden has been and is riding high in the approval polls….sadly his VP cannot say the same thing……

A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey released Monday found Biden’s approval dropping to 52 percent. He may still be above water — only 43 percent of respondents disapprove of the job he’s doing in the Oval Office — but he’s down 10 points from where he was in June, when his approval was at 62 percent.

But like I said VP Harris is not that fortunate….

Forty-seven percent of registered voters polled had an unfavorable view of Harris, compared to 45 percent who had a favorable view, the survey of 1,997 registered voters conducted between July 16 and 18 found. 

The same poll found 52 percent of respondents holding a favorable view of President Biden, with 45 percent holding an unfavorable view.

These falling poll numbers are a bit disconcerting for Dems…..

Democrats are rightly worried by Harris’s anemic poll numbers. But her poll numbers have always been bad–except for one brief moment when she exposed Biden’s awful record on race, then immediately retreated. Every progressive policy she claimed to support was transparently an election gimmick. No one likes or trusts a prosecutor, especially one who aggressively harassed the poor and powerless while letting apex financial criminals walk.

Like I keep saying….calling either Biden or Harris a progressive is a disservice and an out right LIE!

Our two leaders are puppets of cash….corporations own them and that will NEVER change.

Turn The Page!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing In On The Election

Just mere weeks from all of us heading to the polls if we can still vote that is……some news sources are telling me that Biden has a huge lead….something I do not necessarily believe….they also said that Clinton had that lead in 2016….and look what we got for having that lead.

Then there are those Trump sucking sites that would have us believe that the race is closer than most of MSM would have us believe.

Then Gallup has a poll that thinks most Americans think Trump will win re-election…..

The good news for President Trump: His job approval has hit its highest point since May, Gallup reported on Thursday.

The bad news: His approval rating is 46%, while his disapproval rating is 52%. 

But the latest Gallup poll included one fascinating finding.

“Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win,” wrote Megan Brenan in an article released by the polling firm. “Although majorities of partisans think their party’s candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.”

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/gallup-majority-americans-think-trump-will-win-election

I personally like the analytics that the site FiveThirtyEight.com gives us when they look at the election…..so for all those hard supporters of Biden need to keep their eyes on the Electoral College…..why?

Even if you’re not following the polls super closely like those of us at FiveThirtyEight, you probably know that Joe Biden has both a sizable and fairly stable lead over President Trump.

However, you shouldn’t count Trump out just yet. Trump currently has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of winning the election,1 according to our presidential forecast, even though he only has a 1 in 10 chance of winning the national popular vote.

That’s, of course, due to the Electoral College, in which Trump has an edge this year.

Historically, which party enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College ebbs and flows; sometimes the Democrats benefit from it; at other times, the Republicans. But in 2020, the Electoral College is clearly boosting Trump’s odds of winning reelection.

That’s because the states that are most likely to decide the contest are somewhat more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, as the table below shows.

Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances

Do not take for granted the BS spread by the MSM…..to be certain of a Trump defeat you must vote……

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

VOTE!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Are You Better Off?

Remember when that is asked almost every election when a candidate is trying to make the voter think about their situation (like the voter ever thinks about any thing important)…..

Pollsters are still asking that question every election and sometimes the answers surprise me and maybe you as well.

Apparently Repubs think that we are better off since the election of Trump…….

A huge majority of Republicans think the United States is in better shape now than it was four years ago. This view stands in stark contrast to the opinion of voters at large.
A CBS News poll found that 75% of self-identifying Republican voters think the country is better off than it was in 2016, while 25% disagreed with the premise.

“For most Republicans, America is a nation where the economy is still fairly good, where the effort to handle the coronavirus is going at least somewhat well and the president is doing a very good job on it,” CBS News notes.

75% of Republicans Believe the Country Is Better Off Than It Was Four Years Ago

Did I miss something?

Over 20 million people are unemployed……are all them Dems….apparently no Repubs are unemployed if they think that they are better off than four years ago.

But not to worry….even the Dems have turned their backs on the unemployed……

Three weeks after the US Congress went on vacation and allowed federal supplemental unemployment benefits to expire for 20 million workers, cutting their benefits by $600 a week, the House of Representatives stabbed the unemployed in the back a second time.

The Democratic Party-controlled House reconvened in the midst of its August recess, passed emergency legislation on the US Postal Service, and then adjourned without taking any action on the plight of those thrown out of work by the coronavirus crisis.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined to act on the appeal by nearly 100 members of her own caucus, who sent a letter asking that the reconvened House take up legislation to restore federal extended benefits for tens of millions of workers.

The refusal of Pelosi and other leading Democrats to take action on the unemployment crisis shows that the Democratic Party’s claim to uphold the interests of working people is a political fraud. The Democrats jump to attention when Wall Street demands a bailout, but they have no time for workers facing poverty, hunger, eviction and homelessness

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/08/24/unem-a24.html

I have always heard that Americans vote with their wallets….if they are well off then they will rewarded the candidate that is n the Big Chair…..but I am questioning just how accurate that BS is……if a country that is massively unemployed can think they are better off….delusion can accomplish a lot, huh?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”