Yesterday I wrote about a new poll that puts Trump about 9 points ahead of Biden….which means little as there is over a year of polls to look forward to….
As the 2024 election creeps its way into to our lives we are now and will soon be overwhelmed with the constant polling results…..Trump is leading Biden, vice versa, Dems are squeaking by, GOP is running rampant….are just a few of the results we will probably see from this polling group or that….and make no mistake there are hundreds of them and seldom do any of them reflect the same trends.
It has been suggested that we ignore polls for now….go on a poll free diet if you will…
Jennifer Rubin has tried to stay away from “rickety” poll analyses as we inch closer to the 2024 election—a “poll-free political diet” she thinks we all should go on. Writing for theWashington Post, Rubin lays out a laundry list of reasons why, calling the polling field “broken” and the journalism behind it lacking in keeping the electorate in the know with “accurate, reliable information.” Rubin notes that the polls were way off in both 2016 and 2020, as well as in the 2022 midterms, and that voters often offer “contradictory” information on how they’re feeling ahead of elections. The latter suggests that voters “either don’t understand the question, don’t really know what they think, or respond based on tribal loyalty,” Rubin writes.
She also notes how pointless it can be to hold polls way in advance of Election Day, as the political landscape is a fluid, constantly shifting one. Rubin cites a quote from Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg on this point: “At the end of the day polling is only a snapshot into a moment, and cannot predict anything. Things change all the time in politics—change is the constant.” Most important, however, is the role of journalists in this mix, with Rubin noting that the usual “horse-race coverage” isn’t going to do the nation much good. “When the stakes are so high, and the fate of democracy hangs in the balance, continuing to gamify politics with meaningless polls does little to improve journalists’ reputation or inform voters,” she writes. More from Rubin here.
A damn fine idea!
I do not use polls to help me decide who to vote for….I use my principles as a guide.
Polls these days are used to drive news not inform.
Be Smart!
Learn Stuff!
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
I think polls were completely discredited on both sides of the Atlantic in 2016.
1) US polls stated Trump could never win.
2) UK polls stated we would never vote to leave the EU.
Enough said.
best wishes, Pete.
They are totally worthless except for driving the news. chuq
Anyone who uses a poll to decide on their candidate is a lazy SOB> chuq
polls can be made to say anything the pollsters are paid to make them say–
Yep and that is why I am for a poll free diet. chuq
Didn’t the polls have Hillary ahead of Trump even on election night? I don’t trust polls. I’m never contacted to participate in a poll, and I don’t know anyone who is. Those who take them can say anything.
Hi Xena nice to see you again I hope all is well….polls? No one I know trust them and most are only used as a ‘news’ tool…..worthless waste. chuq
Something which happens on a regular basis in my native country of Poland is that when voters are asked by pollsters, they are not willing to admit they are planning to vote for the Catholic right-wing party. Then the party surprises everyone by winning again… It’s true that people can say anything to a pollster…or they can choose not to say certain things!
Polls are unreliable here as well….but the media uses them extensively to drive the reports. chuq