Tag: European Union

Brexit’s Implications for the United States

Sorry for hitting everyone over the head with the “Brexit” stuff…but I have major pain issues today and I am depending on drafts to get the day done…….hopefully tomorrow will be a better day….

The big vote last week when Britain decided to leave the EU has brought about a wealth of speculation…..as usual Americans do not have much of an opinion basically because they cannot see the big picture just the momentary snap shot in the news….

This will be one of my last posts on the “Brexit” story…….I will try and present as much info as possible on this situation for those that may be interested enough to read……(like that would ever happen)…..

The United States remains the world’s indispensable nation — indispensable to international peace, security, and stability, and indispensable to safe-guarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear.

Source: FPI Resources: Brexit’s Implications for the United States | Foreign Policy Initiative

This source has multiple sources to help understand the event….

Could this vote be the end of the United Kingdom?

While the results of last night’s Brexit referendum put a square majority of voters in favor of leaving the European Union, the vote split starkly across geographic regions, with Northern Ireland and every single district in Scotland voting decisively to stay. Ultimately it was England and Wales that carried the night.

That’s not necessarily the end of things, however, with Scotland’s First Minister calling the Brexit referendum “democratically unacceptable,” and vowing that the Scottish government would immediately move toward another independence referendum.

Scottish independence lost a vote in 2014, but at the time the narrative was that voting to remain within the UK was vital to staying in the EU, with the corollary that Britain might not let an independent Scotland into the EU. That argument was seen as a major centerpiece of the anti-independence movement. Just a year and a half later, remaining part of the UK has meant Scotland being dragged out of the EU against its will, and with the belief that Scotland was sold a bill of goods, the SNP is pushing to re-do the referendum on the basis of the new reality.

Northern Ireland might not be far behind, with the major Sinn Fein party calling for a vote within the region to withdraw from the United Kingdom and unite with EU member Ireland,. a long-time ambition for many in Northern Ireland at any rate.

Even tiny Gibraltar, which voted over 95% to remain in the EU, might be up for grabs, with Spain pushing for Britain to allow joint control of the tiny region as a way to keep the rock within the European Union’s economy.

But what about the rest of the continent?  Who will follow and who will stay?

Brexit dominated the Greek media on Friday. After so much drama over Greece’s potential exit from the EU and its heroic efforts to remain in the bloc, it was British voters who elected to leave.

Following international trends, the Athens stock market plunged, and Greek tour agencies expressed concerns about whether the result would hurt the flow of British tourists.

(antiwar.com)

Source: After Brexit, could there be Grexit? – News from Al Jazeera

With the European Union still reeling after last night’s British referendum coming out solidly in favor of withdrawing from the Union, Euroskeptic movements elsewhere on the continent are gaining momentum, with calls for votes in several nations.

French presidential front-runner Marine Le Pen is openly threatening a “Frexit” vote if elected, saying she would push for negotiations to expand French sovereignty within the EU and, if unsuccessful, move straight on to leaving the union, saying Britain “is setting a precedent.”

If Dutch MP Geert Wilders has his way, the Netherlands would be the next to hold a referendum. Recent opinion polls in the Netherlands show a major in favor of holding such a referendum, and while there’s not an overall majority in favor of leaving yet, analysts believe the British departure will add to that movement.

Italy’s Northern League, another Euroskeptic group, is also calling for a law that would allow such a referendum to take place. The Italian constitution currently does not allow referenda on international agreements, so such a law change would need to take place before they could hold any sort of binding vote

(antiwar.com)

Speaking of the Netherlands……

The referendum result puts the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, and the mainstream political parties supporting him in an awkward position. After Ireland, no country in the eurozone has closer economic and financial ties to the UK, with both nations favouring free trade and close relations to Washington. The Netherlands has huge investments in the UK and followed Britain into its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Royal Dutch Shell, Unilever and Elsevier are all successful Anglo-Dutch multinationals.

Source: Why the Dutch won’t rush to Nexit and follow Britain out of the EU | Joris Luyendijk | Opinion | The Guardian

Please read and if you have any questions I will try and answer them as best I can….if not I have several regulars that have opinions on this situation and I am sure they will be thrilled to share those with you.

UK: Wassup Now?

Last week the people of the UK voted to leave the EU by a small margin…..(and the peasants danced)…..now that Cameron is gone and the UK is leaving….what will it take to slip out of town?

Britain has voted to leave the European Union, but any such split is still years away. Here’s a look at what happens next:

  • Thursday’s vote isn’t legally binding, meaning Britain must still formally notify the EU of its intention to leave. To do so, it would invoke the never-before-used Article 50 of the EU treaty, which in turn sets off a two-year period of negotiations over the exit, explains CNN.
  • But when that two-year clock starts ticking is still unclear. In theory, outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron could inform the EU at a meeting as early as next week. But Cameron said Friday he thinks it makes more sense for his successor to do so, notes the New York Times. That would push back the notification at least a few months.
  • Even after the clock starts ticking, the exit won’t necessarily be figured out within two years. A quote from the BBC: “It’s not possible to predict exactly how long it would take, but comparable international trade deals have taken on average between four and nine years.”
  • The Telegraph: “Untying Britain from the old membership is the easy bit. Harder would be agreeing [on] a new trading relationship, establishing what tariffs and other barriers to entry are permitted, and agreeing on obligations such as free movement. Such a process, EU leaders claim, could take another five years.”
  • Why are things so vague? “The Treaty of Lisbon was drafted with the idea that [Article 50] would not be used, and to make it pretty hard to exit in a smooth way,” a Cambridge lecturer tells the Independent.
  • And there’s this: Because Thursday’s vote isn’t legally binding, “there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned,” notes Vox. The Guardian suggests one: Parliament could instruct the prime minister not to invoke Article 50.
  • Also possible: A second referendum to undo the first.

Wait!  Article 50?

Glad you asked……Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty……

Article 50

  • 1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

And that’s the name of that tune!

“Exit” Stage Right

The votes are in and It is official…..the UK will be leaving the EU……

The BBC, among others, has called it: The UK has voted to leave the European Union, sending shock waves through the EU and world economies. With almost all results in, the vote stands at 52% for Leave and 48% for Remain, the Guardian reports. Signaling discord ahead for the UK, different regions voted differently, with Remain winning easily in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London, and Leave sweeping much of England and Wales. “Let June 23 go down in history as our independence day,” jubilant UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage told reporters. The British pound, meanwhile, tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar in more than 30 years.

Britain is the first nation ever to vote to leave the EU, which will now shrink from 28 nations to 27. As the rest of the Europe woke up to the news, anti-immigration parties in countries including the Netherlands called for their own countries to hold votes on leaving the bloc, while a senior German lawmaker warned that Britain will receive “no special treatment” and exit negotiations must be concluded within two years, reports the Telegraph, which calls the Brexit vote the biggest crisis in EU history. In Scotland, meanwhile, Scottish National Party leaders are already calling for a second referendum on leaving the UK.

The other big news is that the PM of Britain, Cameron, will be leaving in October to make way for new leadership….

What now for the EU?

Will this start a sprint of countries in search of the “exit” door?  What about Greece?

How will this effect the rest of the world?  Thanx to globalization we are all tied to each other in some way or another…….

Who Gives A Crap About “Brexit”?

Most Americans have NO idea what the term “Brexit” means….to most it is a reality show with some pasty face hillybilly with an eating disorder…..it is the movement for Britain to leave the EU…..simple huh?

In Britain these days, it’s all about “Leave” vs. “Remain.” Those are the two choices voters will have in a June 23 referendum on whether the UK should exit the European Union—or Brexit, as it’s known in shorthand. Some coverage:

Rupert Murdoch’s Sun tabloid just came out in favor of leaving the EU, and it urges readers to vote for Brexit here.

A political professor now puts the odds of leaving at 33%, up from 25% less than a month ago. Bloomberg assesses.

Along those lines, a major bookmaker predicts the Leave camp will become the majority by this weekend, per Business Insider.

Yes, the Leave camp has momentum, but the Financial Times explains why it’s not time for David Cameron and the rest of the Remain backers to panic.

The Telegraph looks at six factors, including the often-overlooked group of voters in Northern Ireland, most of whom seem to want to stay in the EU.

Still, US markets are starting to get worried about the ramifications of a Leave vote winning, reports CNNMoney. Global markets, too, notes the Wall Street Journal.

The New York Times covers the broad strokes of the opposing sides’ views in a basic primer here.

Another Times story looks at the huge ramifications for foreign workers in Britain if Brexit prevails.

This movement could push other countries to beat feet from the EU…..

The U.K. may not be the only one mulling its future in the European Union (EU). In fact, the fierce debates and headline-grabbing warnings surrounding the Brexit vote in June have given hope to euroskeptics around Europe.

Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland could face their own referendums on EU membership if the U.K. votes to leave, experts believe.

“The main concern is that an unexpected exit of the U.K. from the EU could lead to similar initiatives in other member states, making Brexit the first step towards the disintegration of the union,” Antonio Barroso, senior vice-president of political risk consultancy, Teneo Intelligence, said in a report this week.

(CNBC)

If the EU starts breaking up it would effect everyone…thanx mainly to globalization….and that includes the US…..

The countries with the highest exposure to British capital will suffer most. These countries are the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Portugal and Greece. France and Poland are also exposed to Brexit in specific areas. Germany will suffer too. Poland, in particular, is most exposed through migration and the EU budget.

Just to give some facts: Dutch firms have direct investments worth £180 billion in the UK, earning over £9billion in 2013, which is equivalent to 1.5% of Dutch GDP. Germany has a trade surplus with the UK of over £28 billion. German manufacturers alone export £50 billion to the UK, or 2.4% of GDP. Just imagine what is going to happen to German industry if a new Britain, outside the EU, pursues an import-substitution, protectionist policy. This means that all Japanese and German producers will have to abandon their British factories, with Britain re-building its own car industry and steadily adopting a new industrial policy, moving away from financialisation/globalisation.

A new industrial society will be created and services will cease to be the backbone of the economy.  There are almost 750,000 Poles living in the UK. This is the single biggest group of foreign nationals. Their remittances sent back to Poland amount to over £1.1 billion each year. This is a significant boost for the Polish economy.

So the question is….who will benefit from the exit from the EU?

Will “Brexit” become a rolling stone and take the whole of the EU with it on the way out of the door?

To “Brexit” Or Not To “Brexit”

This is one of those post that will not mean much to Americans for they are more worried about who pees where than anything happening across the “pond” unless it is about those darn refugees that are wringing their hands to come to the US…..

But there is a big debate going on in the UK about without they should stay in the Eu or not…..

This article tackles three issues: the impact of Brexit on Britain as a whole, both politically and economically; the impact of Brexit on the European project; and the impact of Brexit on British SMEs. This allows us to have a measured approach to British voters opting to leave the single market on the 23 June referendum.

Source: “Brexit”: The Real Threat to Globalization

Since today’s world must exist on globalization…..if the UK leaves the Eu what will be the end game….how will it effect global markets?

A British exit from the EU would make it harder to fight crime and terrorism, reduce Britain’s ability to lead and influence its partners, and weaken NATO – putting future generations of Britons at risk, according to a paper from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

After recent warnings from David Cameron and former NATO chiefs that “Brexit” would make Britain less secure, ECFR draws on interviews with top ex-security officials, regional experts, and five years of data on European foreign policy to weigh the arguments on each side.

“One Hundred Years of British Solitude: Magical thinking about Brexit and security” finds that, as the US steps back from its role as global police officer and the world splits into rival power centres, Britain will need its allies in Europe more than ever. The EU is uniquely placed to fight with the 21st century’s most powerful weapons – not guns and bombs, but sanctions, regulations, and trade regimes.

Source: One hundred years of British solitude: Magical thinking about Brexit and security | European Council on Foreign Relations

Americans will not have much to say about this situation….that is until it effects them in some way and then they will be full of shit ( sorry I mean opinions)…..until they they will scoff or just not care…..it is the American way, right?

I know not many Americans have any idea what is happening within the EU…..I am hoping that some of my Brit readers and others will weigh in on this subject.

An Old Evil Returns

These days there are many that are worried about the refugees from war….how it will impact their society and so on…..but while they were laser focused on a “maybe” problem and old horror is returning all across Europe and possibly the world….

An evil from the early days of the 20th century is slowing and methodically taken over the mindset of the people….

To paraphrase an old Yiddish saying about kings and queens, you learn one heck of a lot more from a blanket silence from state authorities than from a roster of proclamations and declarations. What geostrategic calculation (or miscalculation) could possibly underlie the hushed-up decision of the West to go along with a drastic revision of World War II history that not only obfuscates the Holocaust and glorifies Hitler’s local East European collaborators and killers, but in effect rubbishes the history narrative of the Grand Alliance that freed Europe of Hitlerism? Not to mention the vast sacrifices of the Allies, still in the immediate family memory of millions of people, to free Europe of Nazism.

We recently reported on these pages about the February 16th neo-Nazi march in central Kaunas (Lithuania’s interwar capital and present second city) that featured a banner of six “national heroes,” five of whom were Holocaust collaborators. That piece concluded with a challenge to the mayor of the capital city, Vilnius, to ban or move the next-in-line March 11th neo-Nazi parade in central Vilnius. Alas, it went ahead without public comment from him, or from the American or British (or for that matter, any other) ambassador. The “good news” is that it featured “only” two Holocaust collaborators in the pantheon of heroes on the lead banner, there was “just one” hugeantisemitic image, and “only” a few swastikas in the Lithuanian style (with added lines) proudly worn in front of the nation’s prime institutions of government on the march’s route. There were the usual slurs against Poles, Russians, LGBT people and more.

Source: WHAT’S BEHIND THE WEST’S WALL OF SILENCE ON EASTERN EUROPE’S GLORIFICATION OF NAZI COLLABORATION?

It is time for the world to see this for what it is…..a return of evil…..a return of hate……that cannot end well.

Europe Is Overwhelmed

The latest attacks in Brussels has started the regurgitation of crap all over again and since it is an election year it is as vile and ignorant as ever.

Of course there will be the fear mongering of all those bad guys walking down your street chopping off heads….or maybe it is all the terrorists that are hiding among the refugees….or that there are 1 million “jihadist” hiding just around the corner.

I am not saying that there is no problem…..only that the feeding of irrational fear is not a good technique to counter the despicable acts these guys are capable of doing.

Let’s go back to Belgium……the perps in the attacks were known to the Belgian authorities but they were still able to carry out their idiot plan….and some are asking how this could be….

“Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium all need to be concerned,” says one terrorism researcher.

Source: No One Knows Just How Big Europe’s Jihadi Problem Really Is | Mother Jones

This recent attack was a rude awakening for the authorities……Belgian and European authorities knew this day was coming and they couldn’t stop it. Beyond the loss of life, that is the most troubling aspect of today’s bombings.

Europe’s counterterrorism defenses have cracked because there are simply too many threats to track. An unnamed Belgian counterterrorism official made a similar point during a recent interview with BuzzFeed News. Citing this official, BuzzFeed reported that “virtually every police detective and military intelligence officer in [Belgium] was focused on international jihadi investigations.”

Funny that back in January of 2016 Europe set up a massive agency to cover the region with a counterterrorism machine…..

European Union member states are pooling together resources to fight terrorism in light of the threat posed by the terrorist group ISIS in a plan announced Monday by Europol, the EU’s law-enforcement agency.

The newly formed European Counter Terrorism Centre was created in response to the terrorist attacks in Paris in November.

Counterterrorism authorities in Europe faced criticism after the Paris attacks because those responsible were reportedly able to travel to Europe from Syria, where they received training from hardened jihadis. As the continent struggles to deal with a massive refugee crisis, border security within Europe has been called into question. Some of the attackers had known links to terrorism but were still able to move between borders in Europe.

The European Counter Terrorism Centre aims to improve information sharing between member countries.

“Our ambition is for the European Counter Terrorism Centre to become a central information hub in the fight against terrorism in the EU, providing analysis for ongoing investigations and contributing to a coordinated reaction in the event of major terrorist attacks,” Rob Wainwright, the director of Europol, said in a statement.

Apparently that idea was not the answer to trying to control terrorist attacks.

But did the Belgian authorities do everything they could to prevent these types of attacks?

A long list of blunders and missed opportunities by Belgian intelligence services in the run-up to the Brussels attacks has raised urgent questions across Europe about whether they could have prevented the carnage. The suicide bombers repeatedly slipped through the fingers of Belgian authorities — with one of them remaining free to attack despite having been deported by Turkey as a jihadist just months earlier.

Source: Belgian security forces under scrutiny after Brussels attacks – Yahoo News

The Belgian government is admitting their failures in this incident……

In the aftermath of the Brussels attack, top Belgian officials have admitted that they could have done more to prevent it—including paying attention when Turkey deported Ibrahim El Bakraoui to the European Union and warned that he was a dangerous militant. Authorities have now disclosed that his brother, Khalid El Bakraoui, was being sought in connection with last year’s Paris attack, reports the New York Times. Both brothers became suicide bombers on Tuesday, and the intelligence failures have prompted what the Guardian calls “soul searching” in Belgium, which has been criticized by some of its European allies for what one French minister called a “lack of will” in dealing with Islamic extremists.

Belgium’s justice and interior ministers have offered to resign over the intelligence failures, but Prime Minister Charles Michel has refused to accept the resignations. Sources tell Reuters that the brothers were on a US watch list, and it’s not clear whether American authorities shared information on them with their European Union counterparts. The Wall Street Journal reports that while Belgium has come under fire for failures, the EU as a whole has been struggling to implement intelligence-sharing plans, with an initiative to track potential terrorists traveling by air held up by European Parliament concerns about privacy. Six suspects were arrested in Brussels Thursday night, along with a man in France who was allegedly planning a fresh attack.

None of this will solve the problem…..a major re-write of the plan is needed and not just in Belgium.

What The Hell is “Brexit”?

This will be better described by my readers from Europe….but I will offer my take and feel free to correct anything that I get wrong….no offense will be taken…..

Most Americans have NO idea what the term “Brexit” actually means….it is a movement (basically).

The Brexit, an abbreviation of “British exit” that mirrors the term Grexit, refers to the possibility of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. A number of British political parties support a referendum on EU membership; the most prominent are the Conservative Party, which has promised a 2017 in/out referendum if it wins the May 2015 General Election, and the UK Independence Party (UKIP), which was founded in 1991 (under a different name) to oppose Britain’s membership in the EU. A surge in the UKIP’s popularity in 2013 probably prompted the Conservatives to announce support for a referendum in that year.

Supporters of the Brexit base their opinion on a variety of factors from the global competitiveness of British businesses to concerns about immigration. Britain has already opted out of the EU’s monetary union, meaning that it uses the pound sterling (GBP) instead of the euro, and the Schengen Area, meaning that it does not share open borders with a number of other European states. Popular support for an in/out referendum has varied over time, as has support for an “out” vote.
The reason I bring this up is that it could have wide ranging effects if the movement is successful…….will it change foreign policy?  Personally, I think it will…….
In a recent poll it shows that there is a growing support among the citizens in the UK for an exit from the EU……
My question is……will the UK truly be better off going it on their own?  Who would benefit from the exit, if it occurs?

US Aid: The Sick Game

Many Americans including myself have bitched about the aid we give to some countries….not all….just the ones we have some sort of problem with for whatever imagined reason…..

Recently I was having an exchange with my friend over at Lines By Liming on aid that we have sent to Africa over the years…..while I did not agree with him on his responses I did start to think about that aid and did some checking….especially the exports we send to Africa in the form of food aid.

The US exports food and grain to those countries in Africa…..this aid is genetically modified so that the seeds cannot be used to raise their own crops…in other words the seeds are sterile.  This aid sits in receiving yards undistributed because the governments will not give this aid out because the grain may somehow be fed to hungry livestock and that livestock has a large market in the EU….the problem is the EU has a strict policy against genetically modified anything….so the farmers cannot sell their meat and in turn they need more aid to exist.

Basically, the US is making it impossible for the aid to get to the people that needs it….all because of wanting to eliminate the competition…..agri-business is playing a sick game.  So some of this aid goes to waste….to guarantee that more aid will be needed and bought by governments that have trade deals with the US.

This could lead to many misunderstandings when the reports flood in about the aid that the US has given has gone undelivered…..but the story will be that the natives are too lazy to even use the aid they are given….a great story….but completely false.

Is This The World Of Tomorrow?

If you are an avid news junkie and depending on the source of your news…..you see a change happening in the world…..to some it is an inevitable change and to others it is the “end of days”….the beginning of “Mad Max”…..again where you get your information will make a difference…..

Me? I see a change coming that some may not appreciate but me I think it is a good idea…..a change in political thinking…..

AQ began this thinking and it has progressed to ISIS and now Greece may be leading the charge again….after about 2000 years……..

A Greek state TV exit poll is projecting that anti-bailout party Syriza has won today’s parliamentary elections—in a historic first for a radical left wing party in Greece. But it’s unclear whether Syriza has won a decisive enough victory over Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ incumbent conservatives to govern alone. For that, they need a minimum 151 of parliament’s 300 seats. The centrist Potami (River) party is battling for third place with the Nazi-inspired, extreme right-wing Golden Dawn, whose leadership is in prison pending trial for running a criminal organization. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has promised to renegotiate the country’s $270 billion international bailout deal. He has pledged to reverse many of the reforms that creditors demanded in exchange for keeping Greece financially afloat since 2010.

Depending on how he forms a coalition to rule…..this could be the first state to exit the EU……and the beginning of a push back to job killing and economic killing austerity.

Could this be a new form of political thinking?  Will it spread?  What will be the outcome?  All opinions welcome.